Rocket Companies, Inc. research snapshot
RKT AI stock analysis currently reads Rocket Companies as a large mortgage origination and servicing platform whose earnings power can improve materially when housing activity, refinancing, and operating leverage improve. First-quarter 2026 reported revenue rose to $2.94 billion and GAAP net income reached $297 million after the Mr. Cooper combination, but mortgage rates, loan volumes, integration, leverage, and a complex balance sheet leave little room for casual assumptions. At the July 11, 2026 cutoff, the latest available July 8 close was $14.16 and the price multiplied by 2.829 billion Class A and Class L shares produced market capitalization near $40.06 billion. The RKT AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$14.16
Market cap
$40.06 billion
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
Mortgage-platform recovery, execution sensitive
Trend status
Below the 200-day moving average, testing short-term support
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Rocket combines mortgage origination, servicing, real-estate search, title, and personal-finance brands. Its 9.4 million-loan servicing portfolio creates a meaningful recapture and cross-sell base. | High |
| Moat | Consumer brand recognition, digital workflow, proprietary mortgage data, servicing scale, and distribution are advantages, though borrowers can still compare rates and switch lenders easily. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Varun Krishna is executing a connected homeownership-platform strategy. The key test is whether integration benefits arrive without excessive credit, technology, or operating complexity. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 total revenue was $2.94 billion, GAAP net income was $297 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $738 million. FY2025 still recorded a $68 million loss attributable to Rocket. | High |
| Valuation | Using the $0.72 2026 consensus adjusted EPS shown by StockAnalysis, financial_rigor.py calculated about 19.67x forward earnings and a 5.86% mechanical free-cash-flow yield using $0.83 per share. | Medium-low |
| Technical trend | The July 8 close of $14.16 was near the 50-day reference of $14.19 and below the 200-day reference of $16.94, leaving the longer trend unconfirmed. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the business is rate-sensitive, mortgage servicing rights are fair-value sensitive, and integration, financing, and market-cycle outcomes can move earnings sharply. | High |
| AI confidence | High for SEC-reported financials, cash, share count, and quote math. Medium for valuation scenarios because a mortgage cycle cannot be reduced to a single rate assumption. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The platform has scale and operating leverage, but the valuation depends on normalized earnings after integration and across a changing housing cycle. | Medium-low |
RKT AI stock forecast
The RKT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $14.16 July 8 close rather than a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using $0.72 adjusted EPS, three-year growth rates of 25%, 12%, and negative 8%, and terminal multiples of 25x, 20x, and 13x produced mechanical outputs of about $35.20, $20.20, and $7.30. These are sensitivity ranges, not price promises.
$20 to $35
More likely if originations and refinancing recover, servicing recapture converts, Mr. Cooper integration produces durable cost and revenue benefits, and adjusted EPS rises while the market accepts a premium platform multiple.
$14 to $20
More likely if housing activity improves gradually, integration is orderly, margins normalize without a refinancing boom, and RKT trades near a 20x multiple of consensus adjusted earnings.
$7 to $14
More likely if mortgage rates remain restrictive, purchase volumes soften, servicing-value marks or financing costs pressure earnings, expected synergies slip, or the market values RKT as a cyclical lender.
RKT AI technical analysis
RKT AI technical analysis starts from the $14.16 July 8, 2026 close. Barchart data around the cutoff listed a 50-day moving average near $14.19 and a 200-day moving average near $16.94. FinanceCharts reported a 52-week high of $24.36 on January 16, 2026 and a 52-week low of $12.17 on June 8, 2026. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm live levels before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.16 | StockAnalysis listed this regular-session close on July 8, 2026. The July 11 cutoff falls after the latest available close. |
| Near support | $12.17 to $14.19 | The June 8 52-week low was $12.17. The 50-day average near $14.19 is the nearer pivot after the latest close. |
| Near resistance | $15.55 to $16.94 | Recent July 6 closing price was $15.55, while Barchart listed the 200-day moving average at $16.94. Reclaiming that range would improve the longer trend read. |
| 50-day moving average | About $14.19 | Barchart technical-analysis snapshot around the cutoff. Treat it as an approximate reference rather than a precise trade trigger. |
| 200-day moving average | About $16.94 | Barchart technical-analysis snapshot around the cutoff. The latest close remained below this longer-term reference. |
| Momentum | Neutral to weak | Price was near the 50-day average but below the 200-day average and well below the January 52-week high, so a sustained recovery matters more than a one-day bounce. |
| Volume | About 36.5M one-month average | FinanceCharts reported this trailing one-month average near the July 2 update. July 8 volume was 31.8 million shares according to StockAnalysis. |
| Volatility | High mortgage-cycle sensitivity | Rates, housing releases, refinancing expectations, earnings guidance, servicing-value marks, and integration updates can drive sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | A sustained break below $12.17 | A new low below the June support area would weaken a mean-reversion thesis. A trend-following thesis also needs recovery above the 200-day reference. |
RKT AI trading strategy
The RKT AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a rate-sensitive mortgage-platform stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, earnings-calendar review, and fresh market data.
Wait for RKT to hold above the $14.19 50-day area and then reclaim the $15.55 to $16.94 resistance range with volume. Check whether mortgage-rate and housing data support the move rather than relying on price alone.
A failed breakout that closes back below the 50-day level, or weaker origination and servicing commentary, should invalidate the setup.
If RKT holds above the $12.17 June low while Q1 operating momentum and integration milestones remain intact, monitor for a return above the 50-day average before treating a bounce as durable.
Do not average down through a new 52-week low without reassessing rates, loan volumes, liquidity, financing, and merger execution.
Track rate-lock volume, closed originations, gain-on-sale margin, servicing portfolio size, recapture, adjusted revenue, adjusted EBITDA, cash, secured financing, and integration costs.
Reduce confidence if lower rates fail to translate into volume or margins, if servicing marks reverse, or if acquisition benefits require more leverage than expected.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Rocket to search for, finance, close, service, refinance, and manage homeownership through recognizable consumer brands and a digital mortgage workflow.
Rocket benefits from brand awareness, digital product experience, mortgage data, servicing recapture, and scale. The moat is limited by price comparison, rate competition, and the fact that a mortgage is an infrequent purchase for most households.
The failure path is paying for a rate-cut recovery that does not arrive: purchase volumes remain muted, refinancing stays low, acquisition synergies disappoint, funding costs remain elevated, and fair-value changes in servicing assets mask weak underlying economics.
Management is pursuing a broader homeownership platform and has emphasized connected search, origination, servicing, data, and AI. The evidence to watch is disciplined integration, transparent adjusted metrics, and returns that exceed the cost of capital across the cycle.
Digital mortgage workflows and servicing-scale economics are long-term supports, but the near-term industry is governed by rates, housing supply, affordability, regulation, credit conditions, and consumer confidence.
At $14.16, the price reflected about 19.67x the $0.72 2026 adjusted-EPS consensus used in the model. A margin of safety depends on normalized earnings after integration, not only on one strong quarter or a forecast of lower mortgage rates.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RKT price | $14.16 at the July 8 close | StockAnalysis historical data | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $40.06 billion, price times 2.829B shares | RKT Q1 2026 Form 10-Q share count plus StockAnalysis close | July 11, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 2.829 billion Class A and Class L shares as of May 4, 2026 | RKT Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 total revenue | $6.695 billion | RKT 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to Rocket | Negative $68 million | RKT 2025 Form 10-K and Macrotrends | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 total revenue | $2.941 billion | Rocket Companies Q1 2026 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP net income | $297 million | Rocket Companies Q1 2026 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $738 million | Rocket Companies Q1 2026 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $2.687 billion at March 31, 2026 | RKT Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| Servicing portfolio | $2.1 trillion unpaid principal balance, 9.4M loans | Rocket Companies Q1 2026 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS consensus | $0.72, average of 11 analyst estimates | StockAnalysis forecast data | July 11, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Verify primary filings, live market data, and personal suitability before making an investment decision.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
