Rocket Companies, Inc. research snapshot
RKT AI stock analysis reads Rocket Companies as a large mortgage origination and servicing platform whose earnings power still depends on housing activity, refinancing, and the cost and timing of the Mr. Cooper integration. The latest reported quarter is still Q1 2026, when total revenue reached $2.941 billion and GAAP net income was $297 million, but Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 6, 2026 and have not been reported. At the August 2, 2026 cutoff, the latest available July 31 close was $12.90 and 2.83 billion Class A and Class L shares produced market capitalization near $36.50 billion, roughly 19.3x the $0.67 FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus. The RKT AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$12.90
Market cap
$36.50 billion
AI score
54 / 100
Rating
Mortgage-platform recovery, execution and leverage sensitive
Trend status
Below the 200-day moving average, testing support near the 52-week low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Rocket combines mortgage origination, servicing, real-estate search, title, and personal-finance brands. A servicing portfolio near $2.1 trillion in unpaid principal balance and 9.4 million loans supports recapture and cross-sell. | High |
| Moat | Consumer brand recognition, digital workflow, proprietary mortgage data, servicing scale, and distribution are advantages, though borrowers can still compare rates and switch lenders easily. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Varun Krishna is executing a connected homeownership-platform strategy after the Mr. Cooper deal. The test is disciplined integration, durable cost benefits, and returns that exceed the cost of capital. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 total revenue was $2.941 billion, GAAP net income was $297 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $738 million. FY2025 still recorded a $68 million loss attributable to Rocket, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow was negative $1.39 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At the $12.90 July 31 close, StockAnalysis listed a forward PE near 17.51; using the $0.67 FY2026 adjusted-EPS consensus directly gives about 19.3x. Trailing free cash flow is negative, so cash-flow yield is not meaningful. | Medium-low |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $12.90 was below the 50-day reference near $13.99 and below the 200-day reference near $16.52, so the longer trend stayed down. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the business is rate-sensitive, servicing rights are fair-value sensitive, leverage and servicing-linked financing are large, and integration and cycle outcomes can move earnings sharply. | High |
| AI confidence | High for SEC-reported financials, cash, share count, and quote math. Medium for valuation scenarios because a mortgage cycle cannot be reduced to a single rate or EPS assumption. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The platform has scale and potential operating leverage, but the valuation depends on normalized earnings after integration and across a changing housing cycle. | Medium-low |
RKT AI stock forecast
The RKT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $12.90 July 31 close rather than a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using the $0.67 FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS, three-year growth rates of 25%, 12%, and negative 8%, and terminal multiples of 25x, 20x, and 13x produced mechanical outputs of about $32.70, $18.80, and $6.80. These are sensitivity ranges, not price promises.
$25 to $33
More likely if refinancing and purchase volume recover, servicing recapture converts, Mr. Cooper integration delivers durable cost and revenue benefits, and consensus adjusted EPS rises while the market keeps a premium platform multiple.
$14 to $19
More likely if housing activity improves gradually, integration is orderly, margins normalize without a refinancing boom, and RKT trades near the consensus adjusted-earnings multiple.
$5 to $9
More likely if mortgage rates stay restrictive, purchase volume softens, servicing-value marks or financing costs pressure earnings, integration benefits slip, or the market values RKT as a cyclical, highly levered lender.
RKT AI technical analysis
RKT AI technical analysis starts from the $12.90 July 31, 2026 close. StockAnalysis around the cutoff listed a 50-day moving average near $13.99 and a 200-day moving average near $16.53, and Barchart showed a 200-day moving average near $16.52 with a 14-day RSI of 40.55. The 52-week range remained $12.17 to $24.36. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm live levels before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $12.90 | StockAnalysis listed this regular-session close on July 31, 2026. The August 2 cutoff falls after the latest available close. |
| Near support | $12.17 to $12.90 | The June 8 52-week low was $12.17, and late-July session lows of $12.57 to $12.63 sit just above it. A decisive close below $12.17 would open the bear case. |
| Near resistance | $13.99 to $14.35 | The 50-day moving average near $13.99 and the 100-day reference near $14.35 are the nearest overhead pivots after the July selloff. |
| 50-day moving average | About $13.99 | StockAnalysis and Barchart both listed this level near the cutoff. Treat it as an approximate reference rather than a precise trigger. |
| 200-day moving average | About $16.52 to $16.53 | StockAnalysis and Barchart listed the 200-day reference in this range. The latest close stayed well below it. |
| Momentum | Weak | Price fell through the 50-day average in late July, the 14-day RSI was near 40.55, and negative directional movement exceeded positive movement, indicating a bearish tape. |
| Volume | About 29M to 31M average | StockAnalysis reported a 20-day average near 28.5 million shares and Barchart near 29.2 million. July 31 volume was about 21.2 million shares. |
| Volatility | High mortgage-cycle sensitivity | Rates, housing releases, refinancing expectations, Q2 earnings on August 6, servicing-value marks, and integration updates can drive sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | A sustained break below $12.17 | A new low below the June support area would weaken a mean-reversion thesis. A trend-following thesis needs recovery above the 50-day and then the 200-day references. |
RKT AI trading strategy
The RKT AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a rate-sensitive mortgage-platform stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, the August 6 earnings calendar, and fresh market data.
Wait for RKT to reclaim the $13.99 to $14.35 zone on above-average volume and then clear the 200-day reference near $16.52. Check whether mortgage-rate and housing data support the move rather than relying on price alone.
A failed breakout that closes back below the 50-day level, or weaker origination and servicing commentary, should invalidate the setup.
If RKT holds above the $12.17 June low while Q1 operating momentum and integration milestones stay intact, monitor for a return above the 50-day average before treating a bounce as durable.
Do not average down through a new 52-week low without reassessing rates, loan volumes, liquidity, financing, and merger execution.
Track rate-lock volume, closed originations, gain-on-sale margin, servicing portfolio size, recapture, adjusted revenue, adjusted EBITDA, cash, secured financing, and integration costs, then watch the August 6 Q2 release for confirmation.
Reduce confidence if lower rates fail to translate into volume or margins, if servicing marks reverse, or if acquisition benefits require more leverage than expected.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Rocket to search for, finance, close, service, refinance, and manage homeownership through recognizable consumer brands and a digital mortgage workflow.
Rocket benefits from brand awareness, digital product experience, mortgage data, servicing recapture, and scale. The moat is limited by price comparison, rate competition, and the fact that a mortgage is an infrequent purchase for most households.
The failure path is paying for a rate-cut or refinancing recovery that does not arrive: purchase volumes stay muted, integration synergies disappoint, funding costs stay elevated, and fair-value changes in servicing assets and high leverage mask weak underlying economics.
Management is pursuing a broader homeownership platform and has emphasized connected search, origination, servicing, data, and AI. The evidence to watch is disciplined integration, transparent adjusted metrics, and returns that exceed the cost of capital across the cycle.
Digital mortgage workflows and servicing-scale economics are long-term supports, but the near-term industry is governed by rates, housing supply, affordability, regulation, credit conditions, and consumer confidence.
At $12.90, the price implied about 19.3x the $0.67 FY2026 adjusted-EPS consensus used in the model, with negative trailing free cash flow and large servicing-linked debt. A margin of safety depends on normalized earnings after integration, not only on a rate forecast or one strong quarter.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RKT price | $12.90 at the July 31 close | StockAnalysis historical data | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $36.50 billion, price times 2.83B shares; financial_rigor.py deviation 0.02% | StockAnalysis plus RKT share count | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 2.83 billion Class A and Class L shares as of May 4, 2026 | RKT Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 total revenue | $6.695 billion | RKT 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to Rocket | Negative $68 million | RKT 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 total revenue | $2.941 billion | Rocket Companies Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP net income | $297 million | Rocket Companies Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $738 million | Rocket Companies Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | August 6, 2026, not yet reported as of the cutoff | Rocket Companies press release via PR Newswire | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $2.687 billion at March 31, 2026 | RKT Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Servicing portfolio | $2.1 trillion unpaid principal balance, 9.4 million loans | Rocket Companies Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus | $0.67, average of 10 analyst estimates; FY2027 at $0.96 | StockAnalysis forecast data | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst price target | $19.02 average, 16 analysts, consensus Buy | StockAnalysis forecast data | August 2, 2026 |
| Trailing twelve-month figures | Revenue $8.91 billion, operating cash flow negative $1.27 billion, free cash flow negative $1.39 billion | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $12.17 to $24.36 | StockAnalysis overview | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Verify primary filings, live market data, and personal suitability before making an investment decision.
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