Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation research snapshot
ZWS AI stock analysis currently reads Zurn Elkay Water Solutions as a high-quality, specification-driven water-management business with strong brands, recurring replacement demand, improving margins, and a long runway from water safety, conservation, hygiene, and commercial building requirements. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest located close was $46.77 on July 9, with a market capitalization near $7.80 billion. The ZWS AI stock forecast is constructive only if mid-single-digit growth, productivity, free cash flow, and low leverage continue to offset a trailing valuation near 38 times earnings. The chart was below its tracked moving averages, so technical confirmation and a margin of safety matter. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$46.77 July 9, 2026 close
Market cap
$7.80 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Quality water-management compounder, valuation-sensitive
Trend status
Neutral to weak after a pullback, with price below the tracked 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Zurn Elkay sells specification-driven water safety, control, flow, hygiene, environmental, and filtered drinking-water products that are mission-critical but usually a small part of a building project budget. | High |
| Moat | The moat combines recognized Zurn and Elkay brands, code and specification approvals, product breadth, distributor reach, installed-base familiarity, and scale-based operating improvement. It is meaningful but not impossible to replicate. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Todd A. Adams has led the company since 2009 and uses the Zurn Elkay Business System to push productivity, customer focus, and disciplined capital allocation. The next test is whether new adjacencies earn attractive returns without weakening focus. | High |
| Financial trend | Revenue increased from $910.9 million in 2021 to $1.696 billion in 2025, while operating margin improved from 11.75% to 16.45% and free cash flow reached a record $316.6 million in 2025. | High |
| Valuation | At $46.77, financial_rigor.py calculates about 37.72x TTM EPS, 4.86x book value, 24.75x free cash flow, and a 0.94% dividend yield. The price assumes continued earnings growth and leaves limited room for an execution miss. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 9 close was below the StockAnalysis 50-day moving average near $48.98 and 200-day average near $47.82. RSI near 40.22 showed weak momentum without a deeply oversold reading. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | The main risks are commercial construction weakness, customer and distributor concentration, tariffs and material costs, acquisition integration, product liability, cybersecurity, and multiple compression. | High |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for historical facts and calculations, but only medium for the forecast because a quality industrial stock can still be hurt by a cyclical slowdown or a lower earnings multiple. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. The business quality is clearer than the future share-price return, and the current valuation requires continued execution. | Medium |
ZWS AI stock forecast
The ZWS AI stock forecast uses the $46.77 reference price and $1.24 TTM diluted EPS. A three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity using 15%, 10%, and 5% annual EPS growth with 32x, 27x, and 22x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $60.30, $44.60, and $31.60. These are scenario ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends, acquisition surprises, and changes in working capital.
$57 to $63 before dividends
More likely if core sales keep growing in the mid-single digits or better, Q1 2026 margin expansion persists, new adjacencies launch successfully, free cash flow remains above $300 million, and the market continues to value ZWS near a premium industrial multiple.
$42 to $47 before dividends
More likely if sales grow at a high-single-digit rate initially and then normalize, operating margins hold near recent levels, debt stays manageable, and the valuation settles near the high-20s earnings range.
$29 to $34 before dividends
More likely if commercial and institutional construction weaken, tariffs or material costs pressure margins, major customers or distributors reduce orders, acquisition-led growth disappoints, or investors reprice the stock near a low-20s earnings multiple.
ZWS AI technical analysis
ZWS AI technical analysis was cautious at the July 12, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a $46.77 July 9 close, a 50-day moving average near $48.98, a 200-day average near $47.82, RSI near 40.22, beta near 0.81, and 20-day average volume near 1.09 million shares. The practical setup is a recovery above the moving-average band or a controlled pullback that holds support. These static levels should be refreshed before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $46.77 | StockAnalysis closing quote for July 9, 2026, the latest located completed trading session before the July 12 research cutoff. |
| Near support | $45.00 to $46.00 | A research reference zone below the July 9 close. It is a price-area estimate from recent range behavior, not a live exchange order level. |
| Secondary support | $42.00 to $43.50 | A broader downside reference if the near-support zone fails. Recheck earnings, volume, and the 52-week range before treating it as durable support. |
| Near resistance | $47.80 to $49.00 | This band surrounds the 200-day moving average near $47.82 and the 50-day average near $48.98. |
| Breakout resistance | $52.00 to $53.76 | The upper part of the recent range, with StockAnalysis reporting a 52-week high near $53.76. A sustained close above the zone would improve trend evidence. |
| 50-day moving average | $48.98 StockAnalysis snapshot | The July 9 close was below this intermediate trend measure. |
| 200-day moving average | $47.82 StockAnalysis snapshot | The July 9 close was also below this longer trend measure, so the primary trend needs confirmation. |
| Momentum | RSI near 40.22 | Momentum was weak but not at an extreme oversold reading in the cited snapshot. |
| Volume | About 1.09 million shares, 20-day average | A move through the moving-average band is more credible when volume expands above the recent average. |
| Invalidation | Close below $45, then $42 | A sustained break below the first support zone weakens the short-term setup. A move below the broader zone requires a fresh fundamental review. |
ZWS AI trading strategy
The ZWS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair price action with core sales, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, customer concentration, distributor health, raw-material costs, tariffs, and valuation.
Watch for ZWS to reclaim the $47.80 to $49.00 moving-average band and then hold it on stronger volume, with confirmation from stable sales guidance, margin expansion, and water-management peer breadth.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $45 should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If ZWS pulls back toward the $45 to $46 zone without a change in customer demand, tariffs, margins, or free cash flow, compare the lower price with the long-term earnings and moat case.
Do not treat a lower quote as value if backlog weakens, a major distributor changes behavior, or operating margins fall faster than sales.
Track core sales by product category, adjusted EBITDA margin, operating margin, free cash flow, net debt leverage, buybacks, dividend growth, customer concentration, distributor concentration, material costs, tariffs, and new-adjacency launches.
Lower confidence if sales growth slows, the largest customers reduce orders, tariffs persist without pricing recovery, free cash flow drops, or EPS growth cannot support the premium multiple.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Zurn Elkay for specification-driven products that control, conserve, filter, and safely deliver water in commercial, institutional, public, waterworks, and residential settings. The products are often project-critical, code-sensitive, and small enough as a percentage of project cost that reliability matters more than the lowest unit price.
The moat is built from Zurn and Elkay brand recognition, regulatory and plumbing-code approvals, engineering specifications, product breadth, installed-base familiarity, distribution relationships, and the ZEBS operating system. The advantage can widen through scale and product innovation, but regional competitors and large industrial rivals remain credible threats.
The thesis fails if construction activity contracts, customer concentration becomes a sales shock, distributors lose confidence, material costs or tariffs outrun pricing, a product-liability issue damages the brand, or acquisitions dilute returns. The 2025 Form 10-K reported that the top five customers represented about 38% of sales and the largest customer represented 18%.
Todd A. Adams became CEO in 2009 and chairman in 2020 after serving in several operating and finance roles. The long tenure supports company knowledge and operating consistency. Management has used buybacks, dividends, productivity initiatives, and targeted growth adjacencies as capital-allocation tools. The key question is whether future acquisitions and launches earn more than the cost of capital without weakening the core franchise.
Water conservation, contamination control, hygiene, building-code requirements, infrastructure renewal, and the replacement of inefficient fixtures support a long-term demand trend. Zurn Elkay participates in a fragmented multi-billion-dollar construction market. The counterweight is that commercial and institutional construction still has cycles, and the company is exposed to North American project timing.
At about 37.72x TTM EPS and 24.75x free cash flow, the market is paying for a durable margin and growth profile. The balance sheet is manageable, with $300.5 million of 2025 cash against about $496.5 million of debt, but the stock is not priced like a no-growth industrial. A larger margin of safety would require either a lower entry price or evidence that earnings can compound faster than the multiple implies.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $46.77 July 9, 2026 close | StockAnalysis ZWS statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.80 billion | StockAnalysis statistics and market-cap math | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 166.87 million | ZWS 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $1.696 billion | ZWS 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income from continuing operations | $192.4 million; $198.0 million including discontinued operations | ZWS 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $316.6 million | ZWS full-year 2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis cash flow | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating trend | $433.0 million sales, 11% core-sales growth, $116.0 million adjusted EBITDA, and 26.8% adjusted EBITDA margin | ZWS Q1 2026 financial results | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $300.5 million cash and $496.5 million debt at December 31, 2025 | ZWS 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Customer and distributor concentration | Top five customers were about 38% of 2025 sales; the largest customer was 18%; the three largest independent distributors were about 32% | ZWS 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 37.72x P/E, 4.86x P/B, 24.75x P/FCF, 4.04% FCF yield, and 0.94% dividend yield using financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day moving average $48.98, 200-day moving average $47.82, RSI 40.22, beta 0.81, and 20-day average volume 1.09 million shares | StockAnalysis ZWS statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Management | Todd A. Adams has been CEO since 2009 and chairman since 2020 | ZWS 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
This ZWS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Zurn Elkay Water Solutions. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, construction demand, tariffs, customer concentration, material costs, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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