York Space Systems research snapshot
YSS AI stock analysis now reads York Space Systems as a pre-profit U.S. space defense prime with proven satellite production, a $642 million backlog, and a strong balance sheet, but with an extreme reliance on the Pentagon Space Development Agency (SDA). The stock closed at $14.28 on August 3, 2026, about 58% below its January 2026 IPO price of $34, after the July 28 lock-up expiration and a July 29 downgrade from Raymond James. FY2025 revenue rose 52% to $386.2 million, and Q1 2026 revenue rose 9% year over year to $116.3 million. However, 96% of FY2025 revenue came from the SDA, the FY2027 budget pivots the Transport Layer toward a Starshield-anchored Space Data Network, and a May 2026 Wolfpack short report plus active securities-law investigations add legal and demand uncertainty. Q2 2026 results are due August 13, 2026. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain price prediction, and is an information tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$14.28
Market cap
$1.88 billion
AI score
28 / 100
Rating
Post-IPO space defense prime, pre-profit, single-customer exposed
Trend status
Downtrend near 52-week low, post lock-up overhang
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | York Space Systems builds vertically integrated satellites, operates missions, and supplies ground and communication services to U.S. national security customers. FY2025 revenue was $386.2 million, up 52%, but 96% came from the SDA, and the company remains pre-profit. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from DoD prime status, flight heritage, PWSA and T1TL presence, Link-16 from space, and vertical integration across manufacturing, solar (Solestial), propulsion (Orbion), and terminals (ALL.SPACE). The FY2027 pivot to a Starshield-anchored Space Data Network narrows it. | Low-medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO Dirk Wallinger scaled the company from startup to DoD prime and closed three vertical acquisitions. However, the team faces a securities investigation, a contested short report, and its first full post-lock-up quarter. | Low-medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 52% to $386.2 million; Q1 2026 revenue rose 9% to $116.3 million with a $114.8 million GAAP net loss that includes $84.7 million of stock compensation and a $60.7 million one-time dividend on Class P conversion. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $3.6 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $14.28, financial_rigor.py verifies about 4.7x TTM revenue, 1.06x book value per share, and negative PE because earnings are negative. Net cash per share is approximately $3.63. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock is in a downtrend from its $44.54 52-week high and closed near the low end of its $13.88 to $44.54 range on August 3, 2026. RSI near 30 is oversold and the 50-day moving average is about $24.60. | Medium |
| Risk level | High. The company is unprofitable, 96% of revenue depends on the SDA, the FY2027 budget eliminates the Tranche 3 Transport Layer, the lock-up expired on July 28, short interest is about 6.5% of shares, and securities investigations are active. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for filed financials and market data. Forward-assessment confidence is low because the customer pivot, legal outcomes, and Q2 results are unresolved. | High data, low forward confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business has real contracts and a strong balance sheet, but the stock trades 58% below IPO price with a narrowing revenue base, negative earnings, and legal overhang. This page supports research and risk framing, not a personal buy or sell call. | Low |
YSS AI stock forecast
The YSS AI stock forecast should be read as a scenario range, not a point target. Because current EPS and free cash flow are negative, PE-based valuation is not meaningful. The practical forecast focuses on whether the company can replace SDA-dependent revenue, convert its $642 million backlog, narrow losses, and absorb the post-lock-up float. Analyst consensus averages $33.44, but Raymond James downgraded to Market Perform on July 29, 2026 and called consensus estimates too aggressive, so the upside case should be treated with caution.
$22 to $30
More likely if YSS converts its backlog steadily, wins non-SDA government and commercial awards, integrates ALL.SPACE and Solestial without margin drag, narrows operating losses, and shows that the Space Data Network shift leaves room for a second-source provider. Q2 2026 results on August 13 are the first checkpoint.
$12 to $17
More likely if backlog conversion continues but growth slows, the Space Data Network pivot limits the forward revenue base, losses narrow only gradually, and the stock trades around book value per share of about $13.50 while the legal and procurement picture clears.
$8 to $12
More likely if the SDA Tranche 3 elimination materially cuts the forward revenue base, guidance is cut at the August 13 print, the securities investigation escalates, or post-lock-up selling and short interest pressure the stock below book value.
YSS AI technical analysis
YSS AI technical analysis uses a $14.28 close on August 3, 2026, near the 52-week low of $13.88, with RSI near 30 and a 50-day moving average around $24.60. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data. Moving averages, momentum, and volume should be checked in a live chart before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.28 | Close on August 3, 2026, used for market-cap verification around the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $13.88 | 52-week low set on August 3, 2026. A close below this level would open a new low for the stock. |
| Deeper support | $12.00 to $13.00 | A fall below the 52-week low could target the area around book value per share of about $13.50 and lower. |
| Near resistance | $17 to $20 | Recovery toward the July 27 to 28 trading range. A move above $20 would be a meaningful improvement in sentiment. |
| 50-day moving average | $24.60 | The stock is trading well below its 50-day moving average, confirming the downtrend until price reclaims this level. |
| 200-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | YSS has less than one year of public price history, so long-term averages should be checked against fresh chart data. |
| Momentum | Bearish, near oversold | RSI is around 30, which is oversold territory, but momentum remains negative with the stock near its 52-week low. |
| Volume | Elevated around lock-up | July 29, 2026 saw about 4.3 million shares traded as the lock-up expired. Average volume is around 1.3 million shares, so post-lock-up supply remains a monitor. |
| Volatility | High | As a newly public stock with limited float and concentrated short interest, YSS can move sharply on earnings, contract, budget, and legal news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $13.88 | A decisive close below the 52-week low would signal that the downtrend is extending toward deeper support. |
YSS AI trading strategy
The YSS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework for scenario planning and risk control, not personal advice. It connects price action with backlog conversion, contract awards, the Space Data Network pivot, acquisition integration, earnings on August 13, 2026, and the post-lock-up float.
Wait for YSS to reclaim and hold above the $17 to $20 resistance zone with rising volume, and pair the signal with improving revenue growth, new non-SDA contract awards, and a narrower adjusted EBITDA loss.
Define risk before entry. A failed breakout back under $17 or a close below the $13.88 52-week low can be used as a rules-based invalidation. Avoid chasing a rebound into heavy short interest without confirmation.
If YSS holds the $13.88 to $15.00 area after the lock-up event without a new business thesis break, compare price stabilization with backlog data, the August 13 earnings print, and cash runway evidence. This is a high-risk entry that requires tight risk control.
Avoid averaging down only because the stock fell from IPO price. The setup breaks if support fails while backlog, contract, or balance sheet evidence deteriorates, or if the August 13 guidance disappoints.
Track quarterly revenue, gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow, cash runway, backlog, SDA and SDN program updates, ALL.SPACE and Solestial integration, the securities investigation, and the post-lock-up share count.
Refresh the forecast after the August 13, 2026 Q2 report, government budget announcements, contract awards, and legal filings. A high revenue multiple can compress quickly if the SDA-dependent revenue base shrinks or losses widen.
Investment research summary
York Space Systems builds satellites and operates space missions for the U.S. government. Customers pay because the company delivers reliable spacecraft at lower cost than traditional primes, with vertically integrated manufacturing, software, ground antennas, solar, and communications terminals. The weakness is that 96% of FY2025 revenue came from one agency.
YSS has a narrowing moat from DoD prime status, PWSA and T1TL heritage, Link-16 from space, and vertical integration across satellite production, solar (Solestial), propulsion (Orbion), terminals (ALL.SPACE), and software. The moat is real but depends on a customer whose FY2027 procurement is shifting toward a Starshield-anchored Space Data Network.
The thesis fails if the SDA Tranche 3 elimination materially cuts the forward revenue base, if YSS cannot replace it with new government and commercial work, if acquisitions distract management or drain cash, if the securities investigation escalates, or if investors stop funding pre-profit defense tech at premium multiples.
Founder and CEO Dirk Wallinger has built YSS from a startup into a DoD prime with 710 employees and a $642 million backlog. The key tests are integrating ALL.SPACE and Solestial, responding to the Wolfpack report and securities investigations, and demonstrating a credible path to profitability.
YSS sits inside a strong long-term trend: the U.S. Department of Defense is shifting toward proliferated low-Earth-orbit architectures and tactical space communications. But within that trend, the backbone role is consolidating toward Starshield, which reduces the share available to a second-source provider like YSS.
At about $1.88 billion in verified market value, YSS trades at roughly 4.7x TTM revenue with negative earnings and about $3.63 per share of net cash. Book value per share is about $13.50. The margin of safety is limited because profitability timing is uncertain and the dominant customer is restructuring its procurement.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| YSS price | $14.28 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote (CBOE) | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $1.88 billion, verified as $14.28 x 131.4 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $13.88 to $44.54 | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $116.3 million, up 9% year over year | York Space Systems Q1 2026 press release | May 14, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $386.2 million, up 52.33% year over year | StockAnalysis.com / FY2025 10-K | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net loss | $114.8 million GAAP, includes $84.7M stock comp and a $60.7M one-time Class P dividend | York Q1 2026 press release / StockAnalysis.com | May 14, 2026 |
| TTM net loss | $249.11 million | StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Adjusted EBITDA (Q1 2026, non-GAAP) | Negative $3.6 million | York Space Systems Q1 2026 press release | May 14, 2026 |
| Backlog | $642.3 million as of March 31, 2026 | York Space Systems Q1 2026 press release | May 14, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $655.69 million | StockAnalysis.com / York Q1 2026 release | May 14, 2026 |
| Net cash | $477.32 million, about $3.63 per share | StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt | $178.38 million | StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Diluted shares outstanding | Approximately 131.4 million | StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average target $33.44 from 10 analysts | S&P Global via StockAnalysis.com | July 29, 2026 |
| IPO date and price | January 29, 2026 at $34.00 per share | StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| SDA revenue concentration | 96% of FY2025 revenue | FY2025 10-K, cited by Wolfpack Research and Bollwerk analysis | August 4, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | August 13, 2026 (Q2 2026) | Business Wire | August 4, 2026 |
This YSS AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong. Always verify filings, live market data, tax rules, and your own risk limits before making financial decisions.
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