York Space Systems research snapshot
YSS AI stock analysis currently reads York Space Systems as a vertically integrated U.S. space defense prime with proven satellite production, a strong backlog of 107 spacecraft, and a post-IPO cash position of $655.7 million. The company serves the DoD Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture and other national security programs. Revenue reached $116.3 million in Q1 2026, up from $76.6 million a year earlier. However, the business is pre-profit, with a TTM net loss of $249.1 million, and the stock trades about 35% below its January 2026 IPO price of $30 to $34. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain price prediction, and is an information tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$20.86
Market cap
$2.71 billion
AI score
42 / 100
Rating
Post-IPO space defense prime, pre-profit, government dependent
Trend status
Weak momentum, well below IPO price, lock-up overhang
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | York Space Systems sells vertically integrated satellites, mission operations, ground services, and space-based tactical communication to the U.S. Department of Defense and national security customers. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from DoD prime contractor status, flight heritage, PWSA presence, Link-16 from space capability, and vertical integration across satellite manufacturing, solar, software, ground antennas, and communications terminals. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO Dirk Wallinger built the company from a startup to a DoD prime. However, the management team has limited public company experience, and the recent ALL.SPACE and Solestial acquisitions must be integrated successfully. | Low-medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue was $116.3 million, up 52% year over year, with 19.0% gross margin, $104.5 million operating loss including acquisition costs, $655.7 million cash, and $642 million backlog. | High |
| Valuation | At $20.86, financial_rigor.py verifies about 6.8x revenue per share, 1.9x book value per share, and negative PE because earnings remain negative. Cash per share is approximately $5.06. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock is in a downtrend from its $44.54 52-week high, trading near the low end of its $16.93 to $44.54 range. Momentum is bearish near term, and the lock-up expiration on July 28, 2026 creates overhead supply uncertainty. | Low-medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the company is unprofitable, depends heavily on U.S. government contracts, faces lock-up expiration with 18.5 million shares, and is subject to a securities class action investigation. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is medium-high for IPO disclosures and verified financials. Forward-assessment confidence is low because the stock has less than 12 months of public trading data, making trend and volatility estimates less reliable. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business has real government contracts and a strong balance sheet, but the stock trades below IPO price with lock-up risk, negative earnings, and uncertain profitability timing. This page supports research and risk framing, not a personal buy or sell call. | Low |
YSS AI stock forecast
The YSS AI stock forecast should be read as a scenario range, not a point target. Because current EPS and free cash flow are negative, the audited tool run shows PE-based valuation is not meaningful. The practical forecast focuses on revenue growth, contract awards, gross margin progression, profitability timeline, cash runway, and lock-up absorption. Forward price targets from analyst consensus average $35.40, implying 76.9% upside from $20.86, but the actual outcome depends on execution, contract timing, and market conditions.
$30 to $40
More likely if YSS converts its backlog steadily, keeps revenue growing above 30% year over year, narrows operating losses, wins additional PWSA or Golden Dome contracts, and absorbs lock-up expiration without a material decline.
$18 to $26
More likely if revenue keeps growing but profitability remains distant, the lock-up expiration adds short-term supply pressure before recovery, and the market values YSS at a P/S multiple of 5x to 7x on forward revenue.
$10 to $16
More likely if contract awards slow, government budget uncertainty affects PWSA timelines, acquisition integration costs stay elevated, lock-up selling overwhelms demand, or the securities class action investigation creates overhang.
YSS AI technical analysis
YSS AI technical analysis uses a $20.86 quote with recent trading between $19.52 and $21.29 from public quote snapshots around the July 2026 cutoff. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data. Moving averages, momentum, and volume should be checked in a live chart before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $20.86 | Quote used for this static page and market-cap verification around the July 13, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $19.50 to $20.00 | Planning zone near the recent low end. A close below $19.50 would signal continued weakness. |
| Deeper support | $16.93 | 52-week low. A test of this level would indicate a full retracement of post-IPO gains and potentially attract dip buyers or value-oriented investors. |
| Near resistance | $26 to $30 | Recovery toward the IPO price range. A move above $30 would be a meaningful improvement in sentiment. |
| 50-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Use broker or charting data before acting. This static page does not fetch request-time market data. |
| 200-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | The long-term trend should be checked against fresh chart data because YSS is a newly public stock with limited price history. |
| Momentum | Bearish near term | Momentum is negative with the stock trading near the bottom of its range. A catalyst or volume surge would be needed to change the near-term direction. |
| Volume | Monitor for lock-up effect | Average volume is 1.76 to 2.22 million shares. Watch for abnormal volume around the July 28, 2026 lock-up expiration. |
| Volatility | High monitoring priority | As a newly public stock with limited float, YSS can move sharply on contract announcements, earnings, and lock-up developments. |
| Invalidation | Close below $19.50 | A decisive close below near support could signal that post-IPO weakness continues toward the 52-week low. |
YSS AI trading strategy
The YSS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework for scenario planning and risk control, not personal advice. It connects price action with revenue growth, backlog conversion, contract awards, acquisition integration, earnings, and the July 28, 2026 lock-up expiration event.
Wait for YSS to establish a clear uptrend with higher lows above $20 and a volume-confirmed breakout above $26 to $30 resistance. Pair the signal with improving revenue growth, contract announcements, and narrowing losses.
Define risk before entry. A failed breakout back under $20 or a close below $19.50 can be used as a rules-based invalidation point. Avoid chasing post-IPO momentum without confirmation.
If YSS approaches the $16.93 to $18 area without a new business thesis break, compare price stabilization with backlog data, contract wins, and cash runway evidence. This is a high-risk entry that requires tight risk control.
Avoid averaging down only because the stock fell from IPO price. The setup breaks if support fails while backlog, contract, or balance sheet evidence deteriorates, or if the lock-up triggers heavy selling.
Track quarterly revenue, gross margin, operating loss, operating cash flow, cash runway, backlog, PWSA contract progress, Golden Dome involvement, acquisition integration costs, and the post-lock-up share count.
Refresh the forecast after earnings, government contract announcements, lock-up expiration, and acquisition updates. A high P/S multiple can compress quickly if revenue growth slows or profitability is pushed further out.
Investment research summary
York Space Systems builds satellites and operates space missions for the U.S. government. Customers pay because the company delivers reliable spacecraft at lower cost than traditional primes, with vertically integrated manufacturing and in-house software, ground antennas, solar panels, and communication terminals.
YSS has a developing moat from DoD prime status, PWSA program heritage, Link-16 from space capability, and vertical integration across satellite production, solar, software, ground infrastructure, and tactical communications. The moat is real but still unproven at scale across multiple programs.
The thesis fails if government budgets shift away from PWSA or proliferated architecture, if YSS cannot convert its backlog at target margins, if acquisitions distract management or drain cash, if the class action investigation escalates, or if investors stop funding pre-profit defense tech at premium multiples.
Founder and CEO Dirk Wallinger has built YSS from a startup into a DoD prime contractor with 107 spacecraft under contract. The key test ahead is managing public company disclosure, integrating ALL.SPACE and Solestial, navigating the lock-up expiration, and demonstrating a credible path to profitability.
YSS sits inside a strong long-term trend: the U.S. Department of Defense is shifting toward proliferated satellite architectures (PWSA, Golden Dome), creating sustained demand for lower-cost, higher-volume satellite production. The trend supports YSS, but budget cycles and program priorities can shift.
At about $2.71 billion in verified market value, YSS trades at roughly 6.8x TTM revenue with negative earnings. Cash per share of approximately $5.06 provides a partial floor. The margin of safety is limited because profitability timing is uncertain and the lock-up expiration adds near-term supply risk.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| YSS price | $20.86 | OpenAI finance quote snapshot | July 13, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.71 billion, verified as $20.86 x 129.7 million diluted shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 13, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $116.34 million, up 52% year over year | Yahoo Finance / SEC S-1 filings | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $396.29 million | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net loss | $114.84 million (includes acquisition-related costs) | Yahoo Finance / SEC filings | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM net loss | $249.11 million | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $655.69 million | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Backlog | $642 million with 107 spacecraft under contract | SEC S-1 filing / MarketBeat | July 13, 2026 |
| Diluted shares outstanding | Approximately 129.7 million | MarketBeat / SEC filings | July 13, 2026 |
| Debt-to-equity ratio | 10.36% | Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| IPO date and price | January 29, 2026 at $30 to $34 per share | MarketBeat | July 13, 2026 |
This YSS AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 13, 2026 and may be wrong. Always verify filings, live market data, tax rules, and your own risk limits before making financial decisions.
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