Intuitive Machines, Inc. research snapshot
LUNR AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Intuitive Machines as a pre-profit space infrastructure company whose revenue, backlog, and contract pipeline are scaling fast but whose share count, cash burn, and volatility have all exploded over the past year. The stock closed at $13.10 on August 3, 2026, up 0.76 or 6.16% from the $12.34 close on July 31 after opening at $12.21 and trading in a session range of $11.88 to $13.26, with an after-hours quote of $13.26, up 0.16 or 1.22%, carrying a market capitalization near $2.84 billion that matches the $13.10 price times 217.02 million shares outstanding. Q1 2026 revenue was a record $186.7 million, roughly three times the first quarter of 2025, with positive Adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 million, record backlog of $1.1 billion, and $30.1 million of gross profit. The company completed the Lanteris acquisition in January 2026, closed the Goonhilly Earth Station and COMSAT acquisition on August 3, 2026, holds six NASA CLPS awards including the June 30 award worth up to $148.3 million, and competes on the U.S. Space Force Andromeda IDIQ with a ceiling of $6.24 billion. The bear case is equally large: GAAP profitability is still absent, cash use remains negative, common shareholders equity is negative after accounting for a $1.065 billion minority interest, shares outstanding rose about 59% year over year to 217 million, short interest sits near 17% of shares outstanding, and the stock is down about 72% from the $46.75 May 28 high. Price data is from the August 3, 2026 close.
Current price
$13.10 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.76 or 6.16% from the $12.34 July 31 close, after opening at $12.21 and trading in a session range of $11.88 to $13.26 on the real-time quote, with the daily history table confirming the same $13.10 close on volume near 8.78 million shares and an after-hours quote of $13.26, up 0.16 or 1.22%
Market cap
$2.84 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $13.10 price times 217.02 million shares outstanding, with the Q1 2026 earnings call confirming 217 million total shares (160.5 million Class A and 56.6 million Class C) as of May 7, 2026
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
Speculative pre-profit space infrastructure in a deep drawdown
Trend status
Deep downtrend, down about 72% from the May 28, 2026 high of $46.75, below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $22.66 and $19.14, with 14-day RSI near 36
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Intuitive Machines has transformed into a vertically integrated space infrastructure company through the Lanteris acquisition: lunar lander missions (Nova-C, Nova-D), satellite manufacturing on the IM 1300 series, national security programs such as SDA Tranche 1 through 3 and Andromeda, and services under the NASA Near Space Network Services contract. Q1 2026 revenue was a record $186.7 million with $30.1 million of gross profit and positive Adjusted EBITDA. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from NASA CLPS contract incumbency, a flight-proven Nova-C lunar lander, deep space ground assets from the Goonhilly and COMSAT acquisitions, and national security credentials across SDA and the Andromeda IDIQ. It is real but contested: Firefly, Astrobotic, and SpaceX also chase lunar services, and technology windows are narrow. | Low-medium |
| Management | CEO Stephen Altemus, a former NASA Johnson Space Center Deputy Director, co-founded the company with Kam Ghaffarian and Timothy Crain. The team executed the IM-1 moon landing and scaled the business through Lanteris, Goonhilly, and COMSAT. Capital allocation is a watchpoint: the company used a $175 million equity raise in 2026 and about $403 million of cash for Lanteris, and it continues to fund cash burn with equity. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue of $186.7 million was roughly three times the prior year, gross profit reached $30.1 million, Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $2.7 million, and backlog hit a record $1.1 billion with more than $400 million of new bookings. But TTM revenue is still only $334.27 million, the company remains loss-making on GAAP, operating cash flow was negative at $54.8 million in Q1, free cash flow was negative $64.6 million, and shares outstanding jumped about 59% year over year to 217 million. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $13.10, LUNR trades at about 8.5x trailing sales and 9.17x EV/Revenue on the $334.27 million TTM revenue, or about 2.8x to 3.0x forward sales on the FY2026 consensus revenue near $950.66 million. There is no GAAP PE because earnings are negative, and book value per share is negative. The market is paying a high multiple for future growth and eventual profitability. | Low-medium |
| Technical trend | LUNR is in a deep downtrend. The stock closed at $13.10 on August 3, 2026, down about 72% from the $46.75 high reached on May 28, after falling to $11.39 on July 29. It trades below the 50-day moving average near $22.66 and the 200-day near $19.14, with 14-day RSI near 36 and a 6.16% bounce on the Goonhilly close news. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are continued cash burn and dilution with a 217 million share count, negative common shareholders equity, GAAP losses, customer concentration on NASA and U.S. government programs, mission failure or delay risk, about 17.41% of shares sold short, extreme volatility with beta of 1.83, and competition from SpaceX, Firefly, and Astrobotic. | High |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, the Q1 2026 earnings release and call, and company press releases. Lower for forward return estimates because revenue recognition, mission outcomes, and dilution assumptions are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. LUNR can still move 20% to 30% in a single session on contract news, mission outcomes, or space sector sentiment. | Low |
LUNR AI stock forecast
The LUNR AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $13.10 August 3, 2026 market close and the FY2026 consensus revenue near $950.66 million, well above the $210.06 million reported for 2025. Using an EV/Revenue framework over a two to three year horizon with net debt near $223.55 million and about 217 million shares, the tested ranges span a bearish area near $8 to $12, a base area near $30 to $45, and a bullish area near $55 to $75, which brackets the analyst low of $11, average of $39.22, and high of $75. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$55 to $75
More likely if Intuitive Machines sustains the FY2026 revenue trajectory toward the $900 million to $1 billion guidance, wins further NASA Moon Base and national security awards, delivers IM-3 and the Altus-1 lunar data relay without major failures, keeps Adjusted EBITDA positive, and reaches GAAP profitability while limiting further dilution.
$30 to $45
More likely if revenue scales toward the FY2026 consensus near $950 million and the $1.1 billion backlog converts on schedule, Adjusted EBITDA stays positive, cash burn narrows, and the market keeps a high but not extreme multiple on a still pre-profit company.
$8 to $12
More likely if mission delays or failures hit the pipeline, NASA recompetes or slows awards, cash burn forces additional dilutive equity raises, common equity stays deeply negative, or the space sector de-rates and compresses the multiple toward the analyst low target of $11.
LUNR AI technical analysis
LUNR AI technical analysis shows a stock in a deep downtrend that is trying to base near $11 to $13 after falling about 72% from the May 28, 2026 peak. As of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, LUNR trades near $13.10, up 6.16% on the day after the Goonhilly close, below the 50-day moving average near $22.66 and the 200-day near $19.14, with 14-day RSI near 36. The stock is extremely volatile with beta of 1.83, so levels can break on news.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $13.10 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.76 or 6.16% from the $12.34 July 31 close after opening at $12.21 and trading in a session range of $11.88 to $13.26; the daily history table confirms the $13.10 close on volume near 8.78 million shares, and the after-hours quote was $13.26 up 0.16 or 1.22%. |
| Near support | $11.20 to $12.00 | The July 29 close of $11.39, with an intraday low near $11.29, and the August 3 session low of $11.88 define the current support zone that must hold to avoid a retest of the 52-week low area. |
| Deeper support | $7.78 to $10 | The 52-week low near $7.78 from the stock analysis history is the next major floor. A break below the $11.20 area would reopen the path toward this zone. |
| Near resistance | $14.00 to $15.00 | The 20-day moving average computed near $14.19 from the StockAnalysis.com daily price history through August 3, 2026, and the mid-July congestion near $14.85 to $14.91 form the first overhead supply. |
| Major resistance | $19 to $23 | The 200-day moving average near $19.14 and the 50-day near $22.66 reported by StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, are the main trend-invalidation and overhead zones. |
| 50-day moving average | $22.66 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $22.66 on August 3, 2026, well above the current price and confirming the downtrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $19.14 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day moving average near $19.14 on August 3, 2026, also above the current price and confirming the longer-term downtrend. |
| 20-day moving average | $14.19 | Computed as the simple average of the twenty closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, an immediate overhead reference. |
| Momentum | RSI near 36 | The 14-day RSI was near 35.95 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, weak and approaching oversold rather than showing a confirmed reversal. |
| Volume | Above 8 million average shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 8.89 million shares on August 3, 2026, with the August 3 session showing about 8.78 million shares, elevated relative to the stock history. |
| Volatility | Extremely high beta | With beta of 1.83 on StockAnalysis.com statistics and 20-day realized volatility well above 100% annualized computed from the daily closing history, LUNR can swing 10% or more in a single session on contract news or sector sentiment. |
| Invalidation | Close below $11.20 | A decisive close below the July 29 low near $11.39 and the $11.20 support zone would suggest the stock is breaking toward the 52-week low area, invalidating a base-building thesis. |
LUNR AI trading strategy
The LUNR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching a pre-profit space infrastructure name. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level given the extreme volatility.
Watch for LUNR to hold above $11.20 support and to reclaim the $14 to $15 zone on high volume following a major NASA award, a successful IM-3 or Altus-1 milestone, or a positive Q2 2026 report on August 13. A catalyst-driven move through the 20-day average near $14.19 would open a run toward the $19 to $23 resistance cluster.
Define the invalidation level before entry. A close below $11.20 or a failed mission would negate the setup and suggest the stock returns toward single digits near the 52-week low.
If LUNR pulls back toward the $11 to $12 support area without fundamental deterioration, such as intact contracts and no mission failures, the stock may offer a high-risk entry for traders comfortable with extreme volatility and the August 13 earnings report.
Position sizing is critical. LUNR can move 20% to 30% on a single news item. Never risk more than a small percentage of capital on a single position, and treat the August 13 Q2 2026 report as a major event risk.
Track NASA CLPS and Moon Base award announcements, IM-3 and Altus-1 launch dates and outcomes, Q2 2026 results on August 13, revenue growth and backlog conversion, Adjusted EBITDA and cash burn, share count and any equity raises, and the Andromeda and SDA national security pipeline.
Keep scenario ranges updated after each NASA contract announcement, mission update, and quarterly report. The stock can gap sharply on contract news regardless of technical levels.
Investment research summary
Intuitive Machines builds spacecraft, connects space to ground networks, and operates space infrastructure as a service for commercial, civil, and national security customers. Customers primarily pay for lunar payload delivery under NASA CLPS, satellite manufacturing on the IM 1300 series, data relay and navigation services under the NASA Near Space Network Services contract, and national security spacecraft under SDA and the Andromeda IDIQ.
The moat is evolving and contested. Intuitive Machines has first-mover advantage in commercial moon landing operations with a flight-proven Nova-C lander, six NASA CLPS awards, deep space ground assets from Goonhilly and COMSAT, and national security credentials. However, Firefly, Astrobotic, and SpaceX are funded competitors, and NASA keeps competitive procurement.
The thesis fails if NASA shifts lunar procurement away from CLPS or slows Moon Base awards, if a mission such as IM-3 or Altus-1 fails or is delayed, if cash burn forces dilutive equity raises that destroy per-share value, if the $1.1 billion backlog converts slower than guided, if common equity stays deeply negative, or if a larger player such as SpaceX enters lunar lander and deep space services more aggressively.
CEO Stephen Altemus, a former NASA Johnson Space Center Deputy Director, co-founded the company with Kam Ghaffarian and Timothy Crain. The team executed the IM-1 moon landing and scaled the company through the Lanteris, Goonhilly, and COMSAT acquisitions. Capital allocation is the key watchpoint: equity funding, a $175 million 2026 raise, and ongoing cash burn must eventually convert into GAAP profitability.
Space infrastructure, lunar services, and national security space are in an early secular growth cycle driven by NASAs Project Ignition and Moon Base plans, the CLPS 1.0 and 2.0 procurements, SDA tracking layers, and SpaceXs presence as both a partner and a competitive overhang on space stock sentiment.
At about 8.5x trailing sales and about 3x forward sales on FY2026 consensus revenue, with negative GAAP earnings and negative book value per share, LUNR trades as a high-optionality pre-profit growth company. Margin of safety is thin and only appears at the low end of the scenario range, near the $8 to $12 bearish area, unless the company demonstrates a clear path to sustained GAAP profitability.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LUNR price | $13.10 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.76 or 6.16% from the $12.34 July 31 close, after opening at $12.21 and trading in a session range of $11.88 to $13.26, with the daily history table confirming the $13.10 close on volume near 8.78 million shares and an after-hours quote of $13.26 up 0.16 or 1.22% | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | Near $2.84 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3 market close and matching the $13.10 price times 217.02 million shares outstanding with a 0.10% deviation, with the Q1 2026 earnings call confirming 217 million total shares (160.5 million Class A and 56.6 million Class C) as of May 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics, financial_rigor.py market-cap verification, Intuitive Machines Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 217.02 million shares outstanding on StockAnalysis.com, up 58.96% year over year and 24.00% quarter over quarter, with 160.45 million in the current share class and a float of 118.84 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Record revenue of $186.7 million, roughly three times the first quarter of 2025, gross profit of $30.1 million versus $6.7 million a year earlier, positive Adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 million versus negative $6.6 million, an operating loss of $39.2 million, and a record backlog of $1.1 billion with more than $400 million of new bookings | Intuitive Machines Q1 2026 earnings release and call | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash flow | Operating cash use of $54.8 million in Q1 2026, capital expenditures of $9.9 million, free cash flow of negative $64.6 million, and $232 million of cash at the end of the quarter after a $175 million capital raise and about $403 million used for the Lanteris acquisition | Intuitive Machines Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Revenue guidance maintained at $900 million to $1 billion with positive Adjusted EBITDA expected for the full year, supported by a record $1.1 billion backlog with 60% to 65% expected to convert to revenue in 2026 | Intuitive Machines Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Revenue mix and backlog | Q1 2026 revenue mix of 35% commercial, 38% civil, and 27% national security space, with record backlog of $1.1 billion and more than $400 million of new bookings led by the SDA Tranche 3 award with L3Harris and the fifth CLPS mission | Intuitive Machines Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Goonhilly and COMSAT acquisition | Completed August 3, 2026, adding Goonhilly Earth Station in the United Kingdom and COMSAT in the United States with up to 44 deep space communication dishes reaching out to about 2 million kilometers, integrated with upcoming IM-3 and Altus-1 missions | Intuitive Machines press release, August 3, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Sixth NASA CLPS award | Awarded June 30, 2026, a firm-fixed-price contract valued at up to $148.3 million, with a $68.6 million base for a production-line-qualified Nova-C lander delivery no later than 2028 and a $79.7 million performance incentive for product-line qualification | Intuitive Machines press release, June 30, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| NASA Moon Base awards | NASA awarded about $590 million across Astrobotic, Firefly, and Intuitive Machines in late June 2026 for four lunar lander missions in late 2028, with Intuitive Machines receiving $148 million and Firefly $144 million | Reuters and company reports via StockAnalysis.com news | August 4, 2026 |
| Andromeda IDIQ | U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command selected Intuitive Machines for the Andromeda IDIQ, a 10-year vehicle with an anticipated ceiling value of $6.24 billion to design and field space domain awareness capabilities in geosynchronous orbit | Intuitive Machines Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $334.27 million over the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2026, up 53.82%, with fiscal 2025 revenue of $210.06 million and fiscal 2024 revenue of $228.00 million | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Loss of $109.92 million over the trailing twelve months, with diluted loss per share of $0.87 on the StockAnalysis.com statistics page; the income statement overview page shows a smaller attributable loss due to the $1.065 billion minority interest from the Lanteris structure | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and balance sheet | $231.62 million of cash and equivalents as of March 31, 2026, total debt of $455.17 million on the statistics page, net cash of negative $223.55 million, total assets of $1.718 billion, and total common shareholders equity of negative $334.3 million with a $1.065 billion minority interest | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash flow | Operating cash flow of negative $88.51 million, capital expenditures of $45.39 million, and free cash flow of negative $133.89 million over the trailing twelve months, with $175 million raised from common stock issuance in the period | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation | 8.51x trailing PS, 2.79x forward PS, 9.17x EV/Revenue, 3.89x PB, with no PE because earnings are negative and book value per share is negative | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Profitability | Gross margin of 9.70%, operating margin of negative 28.83%, profit margin of negative 32.69%, ROE of negative 30.29%, ROA of negative 5.43%, and ROIC of negative 20.33%, with an Altman Z-Score of 0.74 and a Piotroski F-Score of 2 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $39.22 across 9 analysts, a low target of $11, a median of $42, and a high of $75, with 7 Strong Buy, 1 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Deutsche Bank lowered its target to $20 from $34 on July 31, 2026 while keeping a Buy rating, Roth MKM raised its target to $75 on May 28, B. Riley maintained $45 on June 24, Stifel reiterated a Hold at $32 on July 15, and Craig-Hallum maintained a Buy on July 15 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $950.66 million, up 352.57% from the $210.06 million reported in 2025, with adjusted EPS of negative $0.22, and FY2027 revenue of $1.16 billion with adjusted EPS of negative $0.05 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 37.77 million shares short, 17.41% of shares outstanding, 31.79% of float, and 3.22 days to cover, up from 34.04 million shares short the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $7.78 to $46.75, up 23.47% over the trailing 52 weeks, with beta of 1.83 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day moving average near $14.19 computed from the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, 50-day moving average near $22.66 and 200-day near $19.14 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, 14-day RSI near 35.95, 20-day average volume near 8.89 million shares, and 20-day realized volatility well above 100% annualized computed from the daily closing history | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| CEO and leadership | Stephen J. Altemus, CEO and co-founder, former NASA Johnson Space Center Deputy Director; Kam Ghaffarian, co-founder and Chairman; Timothy Crain, co-founder and CTO; Peter McGrath, CFO | StockAnalysis.com company profile | August 4, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold LUNR. Forecasts are scenario-based estimates from available data and may be wrong. Space infrastructure investments carry high risk of capital loss, and LUNR carries additional risk from pre-profit operations, dilution, negative book value, and extreme volatility. Always verify current filings, prices, NASA contract disclosures, and your own risk constraints before making decisions.
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