Firefly Aerospace, Inc. research snapshot
FLY AI stock analysis reads Firefly Aerospace as a young space infrastructure company with a flight-proven Alpha launch vehicle, the first commercial Moon landing via Blue Ghost, a growing NASA contract base, and a recent move into medium-lift capability through the Space-ng acquisition. Revenue is growing fast, but the business is still deeply unprofitable, the stock trades roughly 49% below its August 2025 IPO price, and near-term outcomes depend on government contract execution and capital markets. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff.
Current price
$21.55
Market cap
$3.46 billion
AI score
46 / 100
Rating
High-risk early-stage space launch and lunar systems play
Trend status
Well below the $73.80 52-week high; near $21.55 after stabilizing off the $16.00 low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Firefly designs, builds, and operates launch vehicles, lunar landers, orbital spacecraft, and mission systems for commercial, civil, and national security customers. Alpha has flight heritage and Blue Ghost was the first commercial spacecraft to land on the Moon. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from flight heritage, NASA relationships, vertical integration, and early position in responsive space and commercial lunar delivery, but barriers are low against SpaceX, Rocket Lab, Blue Origin, and other well-funded competitors. | Low-medium |
| Management | Management has proven engineering execution through Alpha launches, the Blue Ghost Moon landing, and a NASA Mars aeroshell award, but capital allocation, dilution management, and the Space-ng integration remain unproven at scale. | Low-medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue rose 44.8% year over year to $80.88 million with EPS of -$0.46, beating the -$0.50 estimate. FY2025 revenue reached $160 million versus $61 million in 2024, but TTM net loss is about -$298.34 million and cash plus short-term investments was roughly $551 million at Q1 2026. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $21.55, FLY trades at about 12x annual sales per MarketBeat display (roughly 21x FY2025 revenue of $160 million) and about 2.9x book value. P/E is not meaningful because TTM EPS is -$8.15. Consensus target is $40.64, implying about 89% upside, with targets from $25 to $60. | Medium |
| Technical trend | FLY has fallen sharply from the $73.80 high and the $41 to $43 IPO range. Recent price action shows stabilization near $17.82 to $21.75 after a July low, with a 5-day bounce of about 21%, but the stock remains below major moving averages in a broader downtrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is very high. Key risks include launch failure, Space-ng integration delays, NASA budget dependency, capital market access for future financing, dilution, short seller pressure, the pending investor solicitation, and space sector volatility. | High |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts, IPO data, filings, and current market data. Low for forward scenarios because the stock is driven by binary government contract wins, launch outcomes, and capital market conditions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low certainty. FLY is a high-risk special situation where outcomes depend on government contract execution, capital raises, and launch success. The page supports research framing, not a buy or sell decision. | Low |
FLY AI stock forecast
The FLY AI stock forecast is a scenario range, not a point target. Because earnings and free cash flow are deeply negative, PE-based valuation is not meaningful. The forecast instead weighs revenue growth, the NASA contract pipeline, Space-ng integration, capital needs, and analyst targets as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff.
$35 to $50
More likely if Firefly keeps Alpha launch cadence, wins more NASA CLPS lunar contracts, integrates Space-ng on schedule, demonstrates progress toward medium-lift, and raises capital on favorable terms. Analyst targets from KeyCorp, Jefferies, and B. Riley sit in or above this range.
$20 to $30
More likely if revenue grows steadily from Alpha and NASA contracts but Space-ng and new vehicles stay years from meaningful revenue, cash burn continues, and the market stays skeptical about the path to profitability. The current price of $21.55 sits in this range.
$10 to $18
More likely if Alpha cadence slows, NASA awards shift to competitors, Space-ng requires dilutive financing, the short thesis on cash burn strengthens, the investor solicitation escalates, or space sector sentiment deteriorates again.
FLY AI technical analysis
FLY AI technical analysis uses a $21.55 quote and recent trading range from public data around the August 3, 2026 cutoff. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so moving averages, momentum, and volume should be checked in a live chart before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $21.55 | Intraday quote as of August 3, 2026. Last close was $20.33 on July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $19.50 to $20.00 | A recent trading zone after the July decline. A sustained close below $19.50 would signal renewed downside pressure. |
| Critical support | $17.82 and $16.00 | $17.82 is the recent 50-day low and $16.00 is the 52-week low. Losing both would indicate severe thesis damage. |
| Near resistance | $22.50 to $24.00 | The July recovery high zone. A close above $24 would improve the stabilization setup. |
| Major resistance | $28 to $30 | Early July levels and the low end of many analyst targets. A close above $30 would strengthen the recovery case. |
| Longer-term resistance | $41 to $43 | The August 2025 IPO price range remains the first major long-term resistance zone. |
| Momentum | Negative medium-term, recovering short-term | The stock is below its main moving averages but bounced about 21% in the last five sessions off the July low. |
| Volume | 1.38 million shares intraday, 5.64 million average | Average volume is active relative to market cap, so moves can be sharp and gap risk is meaningful. |
| Volatility | Extremely high | With a 52-week range of $16.00 to $73.80, FLY is one of the most volatile stocks in the space sector. |
| Invalidation | Close below $17.82 | A sustained close below $17.82 would break the stabilization zone and make a retest of $16.00 more likely. |
FLY AI trading strategy
The FLY AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework for scenario planning and risk control, not personal advice. It connects price action with government contract wins, launch milestones, NASA CLPS awards, quarterly cash burn, capital raises, short interest, and the pending August 11, 2026 Q2 earnings report.
Given the broader downtrend, a trend-following approach requires FLY to first reclaim the $22.50 to $24.00 zone and then the $28 to $30 zone on above-average volume before a long-side entry is reasonable. Pair the signal with new NASA contract awards, launch milestones, or Space-ng progress.
Define risk before entry. A failed breakout below $24 or a close below $22.50 can be used as invalidation. Position size should be small given the extreme volatility.
If FLY pulls back toward the $19.50 to $20.00 area without a fundamental thesis break, evaluate cash runway, contract backlog, and the August 11 earnings report before assuming support is durable. The 8.06% short interest means a squeeze can amplify any bounce.
Do not average down purely because the stock fell. The setup breaks if the company discloses a dilutive capital need, loses a key NASA contract, or the investor solicitation turns into a real claim.
Track quarterly revenue growth, gross margin, cash burn, Alpha launch cadence, Blue Ghost contract awards, Space-ng integration, share count, short interest, and analyst upgrades or downgrades. The Q2 2026 earnings call on August 11, 2026 is the next major catalyst.
Reduce or exit positions if cash runway shortens to less than 12 months without a financing plan, key contracts are lost, or guidance suggests material operational delays.
Investment research summary
Firefly Aerospace provides access to space and in-space operations for commercial, civil, and national security customers. Clients pay because reliable launch, lunar delivery, and orbital systems are scarce, high-value capabilities with few proven providers.
Firefly has a narrow and early-stage moat based on flight heritage (Alpha), the first commercial Moon landing (Blue Ghost), NASA relationships, and vertical integration. The moat could widen with Space-ng and medium-lift capability, but SpaceX, Rocket Lab, Blue Origin, and ULA are far larger and better funded.
The thesis fails if Alpha launch reliability breaks, Space-ng integration stalls or overruns, NASA shifts contracts to competitors, capital markets close for unprofitable space companies, dilution destroys per-share value, or the short thesis on cash burn and lack of profitability proves correct.
Management has proven engineering execution through Alpha flights, the Blue Ghost Moon landing, and a NASA Mars aeroshell award. The next tests are capital allocation discipline, Space-ng integration, and transparent communication about the path to positive cash flow.
Firefly operates in a long-duration secular trend toward space access, lunar infrastructure, defense resilience, and responsive space. Government and commercial demand is growing, but the sector is capital-intensive, cyclical, and dependent on political budget priorities.
At about $3.46 billion market cap and roughly 12x annual sales per MarketBeat, FLY is priced for years of growth, not current earnings. Margin of safety is thin because the stock already discounts major contract wins. Meaningful safety would require a lower entry price, a clear path to profitability, or both.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLY price | $21.55 intraday; last close $20.33 on July 31, 2026 | MarketBeat quote and chart snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.46 billion, verified as $21.55 x 160.24 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| IPO date and price | August 7, 2025 at $41.00 to $43.00 per share, raised $810 million | MarketBeat IPO data | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $160 million (vs $61 million in 2024 and $55 million in 2023) | MarketBeat annual income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and EPS | Revenue $80.88 million, up 44.8% year over year; EPS -$0.46 beat of -$0.50 estimate | MarketBeat earnings summary | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | -$298.34 million | MarketBeat financial summary | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | -$8.15 | MarketBeat financial summary | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $7.47 for FY2025; price to book about 2.9x | MarketBeat financial summary and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | Roughly $551 million at Q1 2026 ($326 million cash plus $225 million short-term investments) | MarketBeat quarterly balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and target | Moderate Buy from 12 analysts, average target $40.64 (high $60, low $25) | MarketBeat analyst forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $16.00 to $73.80 | MarketBeat quote snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 8.06% of float as of July 15, 2026, down 9.38% from the prior report; days to cover 3.5 | MarketBeat short interest | August 3, 2026 |
| Employees | Approximately 1,409 | MarketBeat company profile | August 3, 2026 |
| Key recent contracts | $144M NASA CLPS Blue Ghost contract, $13M NASA JPL Mars aeroshell subcontract, Space-ng acquisition announced June 25, 2026 | MarketBeat FLY news headlines | August 3, 2026 |
This FLY AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell FLY stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, analyst targets, and technical snapshots as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. Firefly Aerospace is a pre-profit company with extreme volatility, dilution risk, and government contract dependency. Always verify current filings, live market data, and your own risk limits before making financial decisions.
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