Is YPF a buy according to AI stock analysis?

YPF AI stock analysis does not label YPF a simple buy because Vaca Muerta growth, LNG, and the YPF Electric Energy IPO optionality must be weighed against oil, Argentina policy, currency, debt, capital spending, state-control, execution, and valuation risk after a 55% one-year rally. The August 2, 2026 setup is a high-beta research candidate, not a high-certainty compounder.

What is the YPF AI stock forecast?

The YPF AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a fixed target. A reproducible earnings sensitivity supports roughly $20 to $30 in a bear case, $55 to $75 in a base case, and $100 to $120 in a bullish case, with outcomes depending on oil, realized prices, Vaca Muerta, debt, LNG funding, the YPF Luz IPO, and Argentina conditions.

What technical levels matter for YPF?

The key YPF technical levels are support around $50 to $52, deeper support at the cited $40.95 200-day average, and resistance near the $57.49 52-week high. At the August 2, 2026 cutoff, the 50-day average was $50.23 and RSI was 61.02.

Can AI predict YPF stock price?

No, AI cannot reliably predict stock prices. For YPF, AI can organize financial statements, production, valuation, technical levels, oil sensitivity, debt, the YPF Luz IPO, and Argentina risk, but it cannot know future commodity shocks, policy choices, exchange rates, financing terms, or project outcomes.

How should I use this YPF AI trading strategy?

Use this YPF AI trading strategy as a monitoring framework. Define your own risk limits, then follow price and volume with Brent, local fuel pricing, Vaca Muerta production, cash flow, debt, capex, LNG milestones, the YPF Electric Energy IPO, FX, and policy developments instead of treating a scenario range as a personal recommendation.

Why did YPF stock rise to 52-week highs in July 2026?

YPF rose about 55% over 52 weeks as Vaca Muerta production and export momentum, the July 13, 2026 YPF Electric Energy US IPO filing, the XRG and Eni LNG-linked block deals, a Tesla EV charging and storage letter of intent, improving Q1 2026 results, and a Buy analyst consensus with a $58.52 average target all reinforced the growth and asset-monetization narrative.

What is the biggest risk in YPF AI stock analysis?

The biggest YPF risk is that the stock already trades near its 52-week high at a forward P/E near 9.25 while the company still reports a TTM net loss, carries Argentina sovereign and currency exposure, faces state-control and funding constraints, and depends on LNG and YPF Electric Energy execution, so a setback in oil, policy, FX, or project delivery could compress the multiple quickly.

YPF Sociedad Anónima research snapshot

YPF AI Stock Analysis

YPF AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads YPF Sociedad Anónima as Argentina's leading integrated energy company, with a dominant Vaca Muerta shale position, domestic refining and fuel distribution, and long-dated Argentina LNG ambitions. The latest verified regular-session close was $52.54 on July 31, 2026, up 55.03% over 52 weeks and near the 52-week high of $57.49, with a reproducible market capitalization of about $20.66 billion from 393.31 million shares. The shares now trade above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, momentum is constructive, and 13 analysts carry a Buy consensus with an average target of $58.52. Recent catalysts include the July 13, 2026 US IPO filing by the YPF Electric Energy subsidiary, the June 29, 2026 agreements for Abu Dhabi's XRG and Italy's Eni to take minority stakes in blocks tied to the Argentina LNG project, and a June 2026 letter of intent with Tesla on EV charging and energy storage. Offsetting this are a TTM net loss, a forward P/E near 9.25 that already prices in strong growth, Argentine sovereign and currency exposure, state control, rising debt and capital intensity, and the fact that Q2 2026 results are not yet published (earnings are scheduled for August 11, 2026). The YPF AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a price promise because oil prices, Argentina's policy and currency conditions, debt, Vaca Muerta execution, LNG funding, and the planned YPF Luz spin-off can materially change outcomes. This page is informational research, not investment advice.

Current price

$52.54 close on July 31, 2026

Market cap

$20.66 billion computed as $52.54 x 393.31 million shares, matching the StockAnalysis market-cap history table for July 31, 2026

AI score

62 / 100

Rating

State-controlled Argentine integrated energy company with Vaca Muerta growth, LNG and YPF Luz IPO optionality, now trading at 52-week highs with valuation, sovereign, FX, oil, leverage, and execution risk

Trend status

Bullish momentum: the July 31 close of $52.54 held above both the 50-day average near $50.23 and the 200-day average near $40.95, with RSI near 61.02

Data cutoff (updated monthly)

August 4, 2026

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Research quality check

information Richness: A-level information richness. YPF has SEC filings including the FY2025 Form 20-F and Q1 2026 results filed as a 6-K, audited annual financial statements, a long public operating history, 13 analysts, and multiple third-party datasets. The August 2, 2026 refresh re-fetched and re-validated the key figures: the $52.54 close, the $20.66 billion market cap, the 393.31 million share count, the $18.448 billion FY2025 revenue, and the Q1 2026 results, which matched across StockAnalysis.com and the SEC filings with 0.00% deviation. StockAnalysis.com displays a $21.89 billion market-cap header that reflects a different share-count basis than the 393.31 million shares used in the history table and the computed value; this page uses the reproducible $20.66 billion figure.
bias Check: The main AI bias is to extrapolate the Vaca Muerta, Argentina LNG, and YPF Luz IPO narrative into a guarantee of minority-shareholder returns. The counter-check asks whether the stock at new 52-week highs and a forward P/E near 9.25 already prices in the export ramp, whether incremental export cash flow exceeds the cost of debt, capital spending, sovereign risk, and state-control constraints, and whether the TTM net loss and a Piotroski F-Score of 5 signal weak earnings quality.
ai Confidence: High for reported FY2025 and Q1 2026 results, share count, market-cap arithmetic, production, debt, and analyst consensus, which cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com and the SEC filings during the August 2, 2026 refresh. Medium for technical levels and scenario values because commodity prices, policy, litigation, exchange rates, the YPF Luz IPO terms, and project timing are not predictable from financial statements.
investment Certainty: Medium-low. The asset base, shale position, and optionality are material, but the price has already rallied 55% in a year, so a margin of safety depends on conservative country, oil, funding, and spin-off assumptions and on the portion of value ultimately available to minority shareholders.

Quick verdict table

Dimension	Conclusion	Confidence
Business quality	YPF converts Argentine oil and gas resources, especially Vaca Muerta, plus refining, logistics, and branded fuel distribution into domestic and export cash flow, while the YPF Electric Energy subsidiary adds power-generation optionality through a planned US IPO.	High
Moat	Resource positions, scale, pipelines and processing, refineries, distribution, local operating knowledge, and permits are hard to recreate, though the state can influence the economic return on those assets.	Medium-high
Management	Management is reducing leverage while funding shale, LNG, and a YPF Electric Energy US IPO, and it signed XRG and Eni minority-stake deals for LNG-linked blocks. Its central test is whether large export and power projects earn returns above their cost of capital without weakening the balance sheet.	Medium
Financial trend	FY2025 revenue was $18.448 billion and net income attributable to common shareholders was a $826 million loss. In Q1 2026, revenue rose 7.3% year over year to $4.946 billion and net income was $409 million, while TTM revenue is about $18.33 billion with a TTM net loss.	High
Valuation	At $52.54, cited market inputs imply about 9.25x forward earnings, 1.19x sales, about 1.89x book value per StockAnalysis statistics (1.82x computed), and about 20.99x free cash flow per the statistics page. These are market-data inputs, not a claim that earnings are normalized or repeatable.	Medium
Technical trend	The July 31 close of $52.54 was above the 50-day average of $50.23 and the 200-day average of $40.95, with RSI near 61.02 and a 52-week range of $22.82 to $57.49, so the trend is constructive but extended near the high.	Medium
Risk level	Risks include Brent and local fuel pricing, Argentina sovereign and FX conditions, state control, debt, LNG funding and execution, the YPF Electric Energy IPO terms, litigation, regulation, operating safety, and export infrastructure.	High
AI confidence	Reported data are well documented and cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com and the SEC filings, but no model can know policy choices, oil shocks, funding terms, FX moves, or project delivery outcomes.	High data confidence
Investment certainty	YPF is an asset-rich, high-beta research case that has already re-rated substantially. A margin of safety now needs conservative country, oil, funding, and valuation assumptions rather than extrapolation of the recent rally.	Medium-low

YPF AI stock forecast

YPF AI Stock Forecast Scenarios

The YPF AI stock forecast is scenario-based. A reproducible three-year sensitivity uses the cited $52.54 price, a market-implied forward EPS input of about $5.68 (derived from the 9.25 forward P/E), 20%, 10%, and negative 10% annual growth, and 12x, 9x, and 6x terminal P/E assumptions. It produces mechanical values near $118, $68, and $25. Those values are sensitivity outputs, not price targets, and the forward-EPS input is particularly uncertain for a cyclical, country-sensitive producer with a TTM loss.

Bullish case

$100 to $120

More likely if Vaca Muerta production and exports grow efficiently, oil and local pricing remain supportive, debt falls, Argentina LNG milestones and the YPF Electric Energy IPO are funded on acceptable terms, and sovereign and FX conditions improve.

Base case

$55 to $75

More likely if shale operating gains and asset monetization continue but oil, policy, funding, spin-off, and execution risks remain material, leaving the shares supported by growth but sensitive to a single-digit earnings multiple.

Bearish case

$20 to $30

More likely if oil or realized prices fall, Argentine macro conditions deteriorate, leverage or capex rises, LNG timing slips, the YPF Luz IPO is delayed or dilutive, regulation tightens, or investors demand a deeper country-risk discount.

YPF AI technical analysis

YPF AI Technical Analysis

YPF AI technical analysis uses the latest accessible daily market data through the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a $52.54 July 31 close, a 50-day moving average of $50.23, a 200-day moving average of $40.95, RSI of 61.02, and average 20-day volume of about 1.27 million shares, with a 52-week range of $22.82 to $57.49. These are dated reference points, not predictions.

Level	Value	Why it matters
Current price	$52.54 on July 31, 2026	Latest verified regular-session close from StockAnalysis at the August 2, 2026 cutoff.
Near support	$50 to $52	This zone brackets the latest close and the cited 50-day average near $50.23. A sustained break below it would weaken the near-term setup.
Deeper support	$40.95 200-day average	The cited 200-day average is a broader trend reference, not a guaranteed floor.
Near resistance	$57.49 52-week high	StockAnalysis cited $57.49 as the 52-week high. A sustained move above it should be confirmed with volume and fundamentals.
Moving averages	50-day $50.23; 200-day $40.95	The close was above both averages at the data cutoff, a constructive but extended configuration.
Momentum	RSI 61.02	RSI was positive but not overbought. It does not independently establish a buy or sell signal.
Volume	1.27 million 20-day average	A breakout or breakdown is more credible when volume exceeds the recent average.
Volatility	$22.82 to $57.49 52-week range	The wide range reflects country, oil, policy, and execution sensitivity, and the price is near the upper end.
Invalidation	Sustained close below $50, then $40.95	A break through these levels should prompt a fresh review of oil, debt, policy, IPO, and project assumptions rather than automatic averaging down.

YPF AI trading strategy

YPF AI Trading Strategy Framework

The YPF AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal investment advice. It combines price and volume with Brent, Argentine fuel pricing and FX, Vaca Muerta production, export volumes, debt, capex, Argentina LNG milestones, the YPF Electric Energy IPO, regulation, and quarterly cash flow.

Trend-following setup

Watch for YPF to hold above the 50-day average near $50.23 and then clear the $57.49 high with volume while operating updates, debt reduction, LNG progress, and oil conditions support cash generation.

A failed breakout followed by a sustained close below $50 reduces trend confidence. Reassess if oil, FX, financing, regulation, or execution conditions worsen.

Mean-reversion setup

If YPF pulls back toward the 200-day average near $40.95, compare the lower price with conservative oil, country-risk, debt, capex, LNG, YPF Luz IPO, and minority-shareholder assumptions instead of buying solely because the stock has fallen.

Do not assume a lower price is value if earnings estimates, oil, cash flow, funding access, or policy conditions are deteriorating.

Fundamental monitor

Track Vaca Muerta oil and gas production, domestic and export prices, refining and fuel sales, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, cash, gross and net debt, capex, project partners, LNG milestones, the YPF Electric Energy IPO timeline, and Argentina macro and regulatory developments.

Position sizing should reflect that YPF combines commodity cyclicality with sovereign, currency, capital-intensity, and state-control risk, and that the stock already trades near 52-week highs. It is not a precise AI price prediction.

Investment research summary

Four-master Research Compression

Business essence

Customers pay YPF for crude oil, natural gas, refined fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals, logistics, power generation through the YPF Electric Energy subsidiary, and energy-related services. The company turns resource access, Vaca Muerta development, processing, distribution, and asset monetization into cash flow that changes with volumes, pricing, oil, regulation, and country conditions.

Moat

YPF benefits from Argentina-scale upstream positions, Vaca Muerta knowledge, infrastructure, refineries, logistics, fuel distribution, power assets, and permits. These are difficult to recreate, but state control and regulation can determine how much of the operational advantage becomes minority-shareholder value.

Munger risk inversion

The thesis fails if oil or realized prices fall, Argentina policy or FX conditions turn adverse, debt or capital spending rises, LNG execution slips, the YPF Luz IPO is delayed or dilutive, regulation limits returns, export infrastructure constrains volumes, operating reliability weakens, or minority shareholders receive a smaller share of economic value.

Management

Management must direct capital across shale, mature fields, refining, marketing, infrastructure, debt reduction, LNG plans, and the YPF Electric Energy spin-off. The decisive question is whether those investments generate durable hard-currency cash returns after funding and country risk, not simply whether production grows or the share price rises.

Industry trend

Vaca Muerta can expand Argentina's oil and gas export capacity, while domestic energy demand, power infrastructure, and LNG-linked deals with XRG and Eni support YPF's strategic role. The counterweight is a capital-intensive industry exposed to global oil cycles, project financing, infrastructure, environmental obligations, and Argentine macro conditions.

Valuation and margin of safety

The cited $52.54 price already reflects meaningful growth expectations after a 55% one-year rally. A margin of safety requires conservative assumptions on commodity prices, local pricing, FX, sovereign risk, net debt, capex, LNG funding, the YPF Luz IPO, project delivery, and the value ultimately available to minority shareholders.

Source-backed data

YPF Data Table

Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.

Metric	Value	Source	Last verified
YPF quote reference	$52.54 regular-session close on July 31, 2026, up 55.03% over 52 weeks.	StockAnalysis YPF quote	August 2, 2026
Market capitalization verification	$20.66 billion calculated from $52.54 x 393.31 million shares. This matches the StockAnalysis market-cap history table for July 31, 2026 with 0.02% deviation. The StockAnalysis header displays $21.89 billion on a different share-count basis.	Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis YPF market cap	August 2, 2026
Share count	393.31 million shares outstanding, with StockAnalysis reporting a 0.07% year-over-year decrease and a 0.51% quarter-over-quarter increase.	StockAnalysis YPF statistics	August 2, 2026
FY2025 revenue	$18.448 billion, cross-checked between YPF's 2025 Form 20-F and StockAnalysis financial data with 0.00% deviation.	YPF 2025 Form 20-F	August 2, 2026
FY2025 net income to common	Negative $826 million, cross-checked between YPF's 2025 Form 20-F and StockAnalysis financial data.	YPF 2025 Form 20-F and StockAnalysis financials	August 2, 2026
Q1 2026 operations and earnings	Revenue was $4.946 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $1.594 billion, net income was $409 million, and hydrocarbon production was 525.0 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day.	YPF Q1 2026 results filed as a 6-K	August 2, 2026
Cash and debt	At March 31, 2026, cash plus short-term investments were $1.692 billion, total debt was $10.117 billion, and net debt was $8.425 billion per the Q1 2026 6-K. StockAnalysis statistics shows cash of $1.69 billion and total debt of $10.73 billion on a lease-inclusive basis.	YPF Q1 2026 results filed as a 6-K and StockAnalysis balance sheet	August 2, 2026
TTM income statement	TTM revenue of about $18.33 billion with a TTM net loss near $334 million and TTM EPS near negative $0.85 on the StockAnalysis statistics page.	StockAnalysis YPF statistics	August 2, 2026
TTM cash flow	TTM operating cash flow near $5.53 billion, capital expenditures near $4.48 billion, and free cash flow near $1.04 billion, or about $2.65 per share.	StockAnalysis YPF statistics and cash flow statement	August 2, 2026
Reproducible valuation inputs	$52.54 price, about $5.68 market-implied forward EPS, $28.81 book value per share, and $2.65 free cash flow per share produce 9.25x forward P/E, about 1.82x P/B, and about 19.8x P/FCF. StockAnalysis statistics reports 1.89x P/B and 20.99x P/FCF. Inputs are market data, not forecasts.	StockAnalysis YPF statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py	August 2, 2026
Enterprise value	Enterprise value of $30.52 billion, with EV/Sales near 1.67, EV/EBIT near 12.70, and EV/FCF near 29.26 per StockAnalysis statistics.	StockAnalysis YPF statistics	August 2, 2026
Technical data	July 31 close $52.54; 50-day average $50.23; 200-day average $40.95; RSI 61.02; 20-day average volume 1.27 million; 52-week range $22.82 to $57.49.	StockAnalysis YPF statistics	August 2, 2026
Analyst consensus	Buy with an average price target of $58.52 across 13 analysts, low $48, median $60, and high $78. Targets were last updated on May 27, 2026.	StockAnalysis YPF forecast	August 2, 2026
Analyst rating mix, July 2026	6 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell out of 13 analysts.	StockAnalysis YPF forecast recommendation trends	August 2, 2026
Recent analyst target updates	Bank of America Securities Buy maintained on July 16, 2026; UBS Hold raised to $48 from $45 on May 27; Jefferies Buy raised to $56 from $47 on May 8; J.P. Morgan Buy raised to $62 from $54 on May 1; Goldman Sachs Hold raised to $47 from $39 on March 23.	StockAnalysis YPF forecast and TipRanks	August 2, 2026
YPF Electric Energy US IPO	YPF Electric Energy, the power-generation subsidiary, filed for a US initial public offering on July 13, 2026.	Reuters via StockAnalysis.com news feed	July 13, 2026
XRG and Eni LNG block stakes	Abu Dhabi's XRG and Italy's Eni signed agreements to acquire minority stakes in three upstream blocks linked to the Argentina LNG project, announced June 29, 2026.	Reuters via StockAnalysis.com news feed	June 29, 2026
Tesla collaboration	YPF and Tesla signed a letter of intent in June 2026 to explore fast-charging networks and energy storage infrastructure collaboration.	Reuters via StockAnalysis.com news feed	June 16, 2026
RIGI oil project registration	YPF requested that the RIGI large-investment incentive scheme apply to a $25 billion oil project aimed at accelerating Vaca Muerta development, reported May 15, 2026.	Reuters via StockAnalysis.com news feed	May 15, 2026
Short interest	5.09 million shares short, 1.60% of shares outstanding, 3.10 days to cover, down from 7.03 million shares the prior month.	StockAnalysis YPF statistics short selling	August 2, 2026
Scores and efficiency	Altman Z-Score of 1.59, Piotroski F-Score of 5, ROE near negative 2.94%, ROIC near negative 2.01%, and interest coverage near 3.49 on the StockAnalysis statistics page.	StockAnalysis YPF statistics	August 2, 2026
Next earnings date	Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 11, 2026, before market open, and were not yet published at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff.	StockAnalysis YPF quote	August 2, 2026

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This YPF page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a solicitation. Forecast scenarios are based on available data and explicit assumptions, may be wrong, and can change quickly with market, policy, commodity, currency, operating, financing, IPO, and company-specific events. Verify primary sources and consider professional advice before making an investment decision.