Bullish case
$90 to $110
More likely if Vaca Muerta production and exports grow efficiently, oil and local pricing remain supportive, debt falls, Argentina LNG milestones are funded on acceptable terms, and sovereign and FX conditions improve.
YPF Sociedad Anónima research snapshot
YPF AI Stock Analysis
YPF AI stock analysis currently sees YPF Sociedad Anónima as Argentina's leading integrated energy company, with a major position in the Vaca Muerta shale resource, domestic refining and fuel distribution, and long-dated Argentina LNG ambitions. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified regular-session close was $47.90 on July 8 and a matching share-count calculation gave $18.84 billion of market capitalization. The YPF AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a price promise because oil prices, Argentina's policy and currency conditions, debt, Vaca Muerta execution, and LNG capital needs can materially change outcomes. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$47.90 close on July 8, 2026
Market cap
$18.84 billion close-based market-cap calculation
AI score
59 / 100
Rating
State-controlled Argentine integrated energy company with Vaca Muerta growth and export optionality, offset by sovereign, oil-price, leverage, execution, and valuation risk
Trend status
Neutral after price fell just below the cited 50-day average; the broader recovery remains intact only while support holds
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. YPF has SEC filings, audited annual financial statements, quarterly operating releases, market-data coverage, and a long public operating history.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias is to treat the Vaca Muerta and Argentina LNG growth narrative as sufficient proof of shareholder returns. The counter-check asks whether incremental export cash flow exceeds the cost of debt, capital spending, sovereign risk, price regulation, currency friction, and state-control constraints.
- ai Confidence
- High for reported FY2025 and 1Q26 results, share count, market-cap arithmetic, production, and stated debt. Medium for technical levels and scenario values because commodity prices, policy, litigation, exchange rates, and project timing are not predictable from financial statements.
- investment Certainty
- Medium-low. The asset base and shale position are material, but the portion and timing of value available to minority shareholders depends on country, policy, funding, commodity, and execution variables.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | YPF converts Argentine oil and gas resources, especially Vaca Muerta, plus refining, logistics, and branded fuel distribution into domestic and export cash flow. | High |
| Moat | Resource positions, scale, pipelines and processing, refineries, distribution, local operating knowledge, and permits are hard to recreate, though the state can influence the economic return on those assets. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management is reducing debt while funding shale and LNG plans. Its central capital-allocation test is whether large export projects earn returns above their cost of capital without weakening the balance sheet. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $18.448 billion and net income attributable to common shareholders was a $826 million loss. In 1Q26, revenue rose 7.3% year over year to $4.946 billion and net income was $409 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $47.90, cited forward inputs imply about 9.25x earnings, 1.72x book value, and about 19.2x free cash flow. These are market-data inputs, not a claim that earnings are normalized or repeatable. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 8 close of $47.90 was slightly below the cited 50-day average of $48.19 and above the 200-day average of $38.82. RSI near 48.94 reads neutral rather than a directional signal. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include Brent and local fuel pricing, Argentina sovereign and FX conditions, state control, debt, LNG funding and execution, litigation, regulation, operating safety, and export infrastructure. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported data are well documented, but no model can know policy choices, oil shocks, funding terms, FX moves, or project delivery outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | YPF is an asset-rich, high-beta research case rather than a simple predictable compounder. A margin of safety needs conservative country and project assumptions. | Medium-low |
YPF AI stock forecast
YPF AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The YPF AI stock forecast is scenario-based. A reproducible three-year sensitivity uses the cited $47.90 price, a market-implied forward EPS input of $5.18, 20%, 10%, and negative 10% annual growth, and 12x, 9x, and 6x terminal P/E assumptions. It produces mechanical values near $107, $62, and $23. Those values are sensitivity outputs, not price targets, and the forward-EPS input is particularly uncertain for a cyclical, country-sensitive producer.
Base case
$50 to $65
More likely if shale operating gains continue but oil, policy, funding, and execution risks remain material, leaving the shares near a single-digit earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$20 to $30
More likely if oil or realized prices fall, Argentine macro conditions deteriorate, leverage or capex rises, LNG timing slips, regulation tightens, or investors demand a deeper country-risk discount.
YPF AI technical analysis
YPF AI Technical Analysis
YPF AI technical analysis uses the latest accessible daily market data through the July 11, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a $47.90 July 8 close, a 50-day moving average of $48.19, a 200-day moving average of $38.82, RSI of 48.94, and average 20-day volume of about 1.77 million shares. These are dated reference points, not predictions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $47.90 on July 8, 2026 | Latest verified regular-session close from StockAnalysis at the July 11 cutoff. |
| Near support | $46 to $48 | This zone brackets the latest close and the cited 50-day average. A sustained break below it would weaken the near-term setup. |
| Deeper support | $38.82 200-day average | The cited 200-day average is a broader trend reference, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $48.96 52-week high | StockAnalysis cited $48.96 as the 52-week high. A sustained move above it should be confirmed with volume and fundamentals. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $48.19; 200-day $38.82 | The close was just below the 50-day average but above the 200-day average at the data cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 48.94 | RSI was neutral. It does not independently establish a buy or sell signal. |
| Volume | 1.77 million 20-day average | A breakout or breakdown is more credible when volume exceeds the recent average. |
| Volatility | $22.82 to $48.96 52-week range | The wide range reflects country, oil, policy, and execution sensitivity. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $46, then $38.82 | A break through these levels should prompt a fresh review of oil, debt, policy, and project assumptions rather than automatic averaging down. |
YPF AI trading strategy
YPF AI Trading Strategy Framework
The YPF AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal investment advice. It combines price and volume with Brent, Argentine fuel pricing and FX, Vaca Muerta production, export volumes, debt, capex, Argentina LNG milestones, regulation, and quarterly cash flow.
Trend-following setup
Watch for YPF to regain and hold the 50-day average near $48.19, then clear the $48.96 high with volume while operating updates, debt reduction, and oil conditions support cash generation.
A failed breakout followed by a sustained close below $46 reduces trend confidence. Reassess if oil, FX, financing, regulation, or execution conditions worsen.
Mean-reversion setup
If YPF approaches the 200-day average near $38.82, compare the lower price with conservative oil, country-risk, debt, capex, LNG, and minority-shareholder assumptions instead of buying solely because the stock has fallen.
Do not assume a lower price is value if earnings estimates, oil, cash flow, funding access, or policy conditions are deteriorating.
Fundamental monitor
Track Vaca Muerta oil and gas production, domestic and export prices, refining and fuel sales, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, cash, gross and net debt, capex, project partners, LNG milestones, and Argentina macro and regulatory developments.
Position sizing should reflect that YPF combines commodity cyclicality with sovereign, currency, capital-intensity, and state-control risk. It is not a precise AI price prediction.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay YPF for crude oil, natural gas, refined fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals, logistics, and energy-related services. The company turns resource access, Vaca Muerta development, processing, and distribution into cash flow that changes with volumes, pricing, oil, regulation, and country conditions.
Moat
YPF benefits from Argentina-scale upstream positions, Vaca Muerta knowledge, infrastructure, refineries, logistics, fuel distribution, and permits. These are difficult to recreate, but state control and regulation can determine how much of the operational advantage becomes minority-shareholder value.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if oil or realized prices fall, Argentina policy or FX conditions turn adverse, debt or capital spending rises, LNG execution slips, regulation limits returns, export infrastructure constrains volumes, operating reliability weakens, or minority shareholders receive a smaller share of economic value.
Management
Management must direct capital across shale, mature fields, refining, marketing, infrastructure, debt reduction, and LNG plans. The decisive question is whether those investments generate durable hard-currency cash returns after funding and country risk, not simply whether production grows.
Industry trend
Vaca Muerta can expand Argentina's oil and gas export capacity, while domestic energy demand and infrastructure support YPF's strategic role. The counterweight is a capital-intensive industry exposed to global oil cycles, project financing, infrastructure, environmental obligations, and Argentine macro conditions.
Valuation and margin of safety
The cited $47.90 price reflects meaningful growth expectations. A margin of safety requires conservative assumptions on commodity prices, local pricing, FX, sovereign risk, net debt, capex, LNG funding, project delivery, and the value ultimately available to minority shareholders.
Source-backed data
YPF Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| YPF quote reference | $47.90 regular-session close on July 8, 2026. | StockAnalysis YPF statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $18.84 billion calculated from $47.90 x 393.31 million shares. This exactly matches StockAnalysis historical market capitalization for July 8, 2026. | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis YPF market cap | July 11, 2026 |
| Share count | 393.31 million shares outstanding, with StockAnalysis reporting a 0.07% year-over-year decrease. | StockAnalysis YPF statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $18.448 billion, cross-checked between YPF's 2025 Form 20-F and StockAnalysis financial data. | YPF 2025 Form 20-F | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income to common | Negative $826 million, cross-checked between YPF's 2025 Form 20-F, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends. | Macrotrends YPF net income history | July 11, 2026 |
| 1Q26 operations and earnings | Revenue was $4.946 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $1.594 billion, net income was $409 million, and hydrocarbon production was 525.0 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. | YPF 1Q26 results filed as a 6-K | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | At March 31, 2026, cash plus short-term investments were $1.692 billion, total debt was $10.117 billion, and net debt was $8.425 billion. The 4Q25 cash figure of $1.195 billion was cross-checked with StockAnalysis. | YPF 1Q26 results filed as a 6-K | July 11, 2026 |
| Reproducible valuation inputs | $47.90 price, $5.18 market-implied forward EPS, $27.85 book value per share, and $2.50 free cash flow per share produce 9.25x P/E, 1.72x P/B, and about 19.16x P/FCF. Inputs are market data, not forecasts. | StockAnalysis YPF statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| Technical data | July 8 close $47.90; 50-day average $48.19; 200-day average $38.82; RSI 48.94; 20-day average volume 1.77 million; 52-week range $22.82 to $48.96. | StockAnalysis YPF statistics | July 11, 2026 |
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This YPF page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a solicitation. Forecast scenarios are based on available data and explicit assumptions, may be wrong, and can change quickly with market, policy, commodity, currency, operating, financing, and company-specific events. Verify primary sources and consider professional advice before making an investment decision.
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