Ecopetrol S.A. research snapshot
EC AI stock analysis currently reads Ecopetrol as a large integrated Colombian energy company with upstream production, refining, transport, power-transmission, and road assets. Its July 11, 2026 valuation reflects meaningful cash-generation capacity but also lower 2025 earnings, commodity dependence, state ownership, Colombian policy risk, and substantial debt. The EC AI stock forecast therefore uses scenario ranges instead of a price promise. The EC AI technical analysis treats $14.20 to $14.50 as nearby support and $15.80 to $16.60 as a recovery test. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$15.13 close on July 8, 2026
Market cap
$31.11 billion ADS-equivalent calculation
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Integrated Colombian energy producer with scale and cash-flow capacity, offset by oil, state-control, currency, debt, and execution risk
Trend status
Neutral to soft after a volatile June and early July recovery attempt
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ecopetrol monetizes Colombian oil and gas resources through production, refining, transport, marketing, energy transmission, toll roads, and related services. | High |
| Moat | National resource access, pipeline and refining infrastructure, operating scale, downstream distribution, and the ISA transmission platform create hard-to-replicate local advantages. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management must balance energy security, production replacement, gas development, debt reduction, dividends, and investment returns under a state-controlled ownership structure. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was COP 119.694 trillion, down 10.2% year over year, while income attributable to Ecopetrol owners was COP 9.029 trillion, down 39.5% under company reporting. | High |
| Valuation | At the July 8 close of $15.13, reproducible inputs implied about 14.3x FY2025 earnings, 1.5x book value, and a 10.1% free-cash-flow yield. These figures are sensitive to exchange rates and normalization assumptions. | Medium |
| Technical trend | EC recovered from a June swing low near $14.20 but remained below the mid-June $16.58 close. The setup is neutral until price can hold support and reclaim the recent resistance zone. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include Brent prices, Colombian government priorities, security and pipeline disruption, reserve replacement, gas declines, exchange rates, debt, capex, and environmental liabilities. | High |
| AI confidence | The company is well documented, but no model can know future commodity shocks, regulation, fiscal policy, or capital-allocation decisions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The stock may appeal to value-oriented research, but a margin of safety requires conservative assumptions about oil, dividends, debt, and the portion of economic value available to minority shareholders. | Medium-low |
EC AI stock forecast
The EC AI stock forecast is scenario-based. A reproducible three-year sensitivity using $1.06 ADS-equivalent FY2025 EPS, 10%, 0%, and negative 10% annual EPS growth, and 14x, 11x, and 8x terminal P/E assumptions produces mechanical values near $19.80, $11.70, and $6.20. Those are sensitivity cases, not price targets, because Ecopetrol earnings are tied to oil, currency, policy, investment, and distribution decisions.
$18 to $22 before dividends
More likely if Brent and realised prices stay supportive, production and refinery reliability improve, debt falls, capex remains disciplined, and policy supports commercially rational pricing and distributions.
$11 to $16 before dividends
More likely if earnings remain near current levels, transmission and midstream stability partly offset lower upstream profitability, and the market continues to price state and commodity risk.
$6 to $10 before dividends
More likely if oil prices weaken, production or pipeline reliability deteriorates, gas declines accelerate, debt or capex rises, the peso weakens, or public-policy priorities reduce cash available to outside shareholders.
EC AI technical analysis
EC AI technical analysis uses the latest accessible daily series through the July 11, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a July 8 close of $15.13. The observed June and July series places nearby support around $14.20 to $14.50 and resistance around $15.80 to $16.60. Moving-average values were not independently available in the cited public source at the cutoff, so they are a monitoring input rather than a fabricated level.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $15.13 | StockAnalysis listed the July 8, 2026 regular-session close at $15.13. |
| Immediate support | $14.20 to $14.50 | This range contains multiple late-June and early-July closing references and is the first nearby downside test. |
| Deeper support | $12.60 to $13.10 | This area brackets May closes near $12.64 to $13.09 and should be treated as a volatility reference, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $15.80 to $16.60 | This zone includes several June closes and the June 18 close of $16.58 after a sharp recovery. |
| Upper resistance | $17.00 to $17.75 | The June 22 session reached a $17.75 high. A sustained recovery above this zone would improve the chart structure. |
| Moving averages | Monitor 50-day and 200-day averages | No independently verified moving-average values were available in the cited source at the data cutoff. Confirm current averages in a live chart before using them for a trade rule. |
| Momentum | Neutral to soft | The price action recovered from May lows but gave back a June advance, which does not establish a durable upside trend. |
| Volume | Confirm breakouts with volume | The June 22 decline traded about 8.74 million shares, above many surrounding sessions, so volume should confirm moves through support or resistance. |
| Volatility | Oil, policy, and earnings sensitive | Oil prices, government payments, dividends, production, debt, and Colombian policy can change EC volatility quickly. |
| Invalidation | Close below $14.20, then below $12.60 | A sustained break below nearby support weakens a recovery view. A break below the May range would require a fresh fundamental review. |
EC AI trading strategy
The EC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price levels with Brent, realised prices, production, refinery and pipeline reliability, Colombian policy, debt, capex, cash, dividends, and the COP/USD exchange rate.
Watch for EC to hold $14.20 to $14.50 and reclaim $15.80 to $16.60 with improving oil conditions, stable currency, and operating updates that support free cash flow after investment.
A failed reclaim followed by a sustained close below $14.20 reduces trend confidence, especially if oil, debt, capex, or public-policy risks worsen.
If EC revisits the $12.60 to $13.10 area, compare the lower price with normalized oil assumptions, cash, total borrowings, capex, dividend capacity, security risk, and state-policy conditions instead of relying on the headline P/E.
A price decline is not automatically value if it is paired with weaker Brent, a weaker peso, lower production, higher debt, reduced distributions, or less commercial fuel-pricing decisions.
Track Brent, realised prices, production, gas availability, refinery utilisation, pipeline and security events, cash, gross debt, capex, dividends, FEPC receivables, COP/USD, and quarterly results.
Position sizing should recognize that EC combines cyclical commodity exposure, sovereign influence, foreign-exchange exposure, and execution risk. It is not a precise AI price prediction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Ecopetrol for crude oil, fuels, refined products, natural gas, transport, power-transmission, road, and related services. The company turns resource access and integrated infrastructure into cash flow that changes with oil, volumes, regulation, and Colombia-specific conditions.
Ecopetrol benefits from national scale, resource access, pipelines, refineries, downstream infrastructure, and the ISA transmission platform. These assets are difficult to duplicate, though state control can influence how the economic benefit is divided between shareholders and public objectives.
The thesis fails if oil prices fall, reserves or production decline, gas shortfalls grow, security disruptions affect assets, debt and capex rise, the peso weakens, environmental costs increase, or policy shifts reduce the value available to minority shareholders.
Management must allocate capital across hydrocarbons, gas, refining, transport, and transition projects while protecting balance-sheet flexibility. The key question is whether investment and dividend choices earn adequate returns under political and commodity constraints.
Colombia needs reliable fuels, transport infrastructure, power transmission, and gas supply, which supports the strategic relevance of Ecopetrol assets. The counterweight is a capital-intensive sector facing cyclical prices, decarbonization, security, and regulatory challenges.
The July 8 price can look inexpensive on cash-flow metrics, but the discount is not free. A margin of safety requires conservative assumptions about oil, FX, tax and policy outcomes, capex, debt, reserve replacement, and dividends.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| EC quote reference | $15.13 regular-session close on July 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis EC statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $31.11 billion calculated from $15.13 x 2.056 billion ADS equivalents. StockAnalysis reported $31.29 billion, a 0.58% difference. | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis EC statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| ADS-equivalent share count | 2.056 billion ADS equivalents, based on 41.12 billion ordinary shares and 20 ordinary shares per ADS. | StockAnalysis EC statistics and Ecopetrol Form 20-F | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | COP 119.694 trillion, cross-checked between Ecopetrol FY2025 results and StockAnalysis financial data. | Ecopetrol FY2025 operating and financial update | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 income attributable to owners | COP 9.029 trillion in company reporting. StockAnalysis listed COP 10.488 trillion net income to common, a material presentation difference, so the audited company value is used. | Ecopetrol FY2025 operating and financial update | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 production | 745.3 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared with 745.8 thousand in 2024. | Ecopetrol FY2025 operating and financial update | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and borrowings | COP 10.694 trillion cash and equivalents, COP 109.200 trillion total loans and borrowings at December 31, 2025. Net cash is negative before considering other financial assets. | Ecopetrol FY2025 operating and financial update | July 11, 2026 |
| Reproducible valuation inputs | $1.06 ADS-equivalent FY2025 EPS, $9.93 book value per ADS, $1.52 free cash flow per ADS, and $0.26 dividend per ADS-equivalent input. These are calculation inputs, not forecasts. | Ecopetrol FY2025 results, StockAnalysis, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| Technical data | July 8 close $15.13. Recent support $14.20 to $14.50, resistance $15.80 to $16.60, and June 22 high $17.75 are derived from the cited daily history. Moving-average figures were not independently verified at the cutoff. | StockAnalysis EC price history | July 11, 2026 |
This EC page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a solicitation. Forecast scenarios are based on available data and explicit assumptions, may be wrong, and can change quickly with market, policy, commodity, currency, operating, and company-specific events. Verify primary sources and consider professional advice before making an investment decision.
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