Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras research snapshot
PBR AI stock analysis currently reads Petrobras as a large integrated Brazilian energy company with record pre-salt production, strong recent cash generation, rising refining output, and a valuation that still screens low on trailing earnings. The August 2, 2026 setup has improved since mid-2026 because the share price moved above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages while Petrobras reported record quarterly production of 3.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The PBR AI stock forecast therefore uses scenario ranges rather than a precise price promise, and the PBR AI technical analysis shows a share price that has climbed about 50% over the past year. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$19.40 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$125.01 billion ADS-equivalent calculation
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Record pre-salt production, strong cash generation, and a more constructive technical trend, still offset by state control, commodity, currency, and capital-allocation risk
Trend status
Constructive, above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Petrobras sells oil products, crude oil, natural gas, and energy services through Exploration and Production, Refining, Transportation and Marketing, and Gas and Low Carbon Energies. | High |
| Moat | Pre-salt resource access, offshore operating expertise, downstream infrastructure, domestic scale, logistics, and an established brand provide real advantages, though government ownership complicates how those advantages are monetized. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Magda Chambriard is executing a growth and investment agenda. Record production and refinery utilization show execution progress. The test is whether expansion, refining projects, and energy-transition spending clear economic hurdles while preserving shareholder returns. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was R$497.55 billion and Petrobras shareholder income was R$110.13 billion. Q1 2026 sales were $23.54 billion and net income was $6.22 billion, supported by production, pricing, and refining gains. | High |
| Valuation | At the July 31 close of $19.40, reported market data showed roughly 5.74x trailing P/E, 1.38x price to book, 7.00x price to free cash flow, and a 4.95% indicated dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | PBR closed at $19.40, above its 50-day average near $17.87 and its 200-day average near $16.26. RSI near 65.64 described firmer momentum than in mid-2026, though the move is closer to overbought territory. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include oil and refining margins, domestic fuel pricing, state intervention, higher capex, debt and lease commitments, Brazilian real moves, environmental liabilities, and offshore execution. | High |
| AI confidence | The factual record is well documented, but a model cannot reliably forecast political or commodity decisions that affect Petrobras shareholder outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The valuation can offer a margin of safety only if outside shareholders continue to participate in cash flows and the investment cycle earns acceptable returns. | Medium-low |
PBR AI stock forecast
The PBR AI stock forecast is scenario-based. A reproducible three-year model using the July 31 price, $3.20 ADS-equivalent trailing EPS, 8%, 2%, and negative 10% EPS growth assumptions, and 6.2x, 5.0x, and 3.5x terminal P/E assumptions produces mechanical values near $25, $17, and $8. Those outputs are sensitivity cases, not price targets, because Petrobras earnings depend on commodity prices, exchange rates, government policy, and investment execution.
$23 to $28 before dividends
More likely if oil prices remain supportive, pre-salt volumes keep setting records, refining utilization stays high, the real is stable, capex stays disciplined, and domestic pricing or dividend decisions remain commercially oriented.
$16 to $20 before dividends
More likely if earnings normalize near recent levels, production growth partly offsets cost and debt pressure, dividends remain variable but funded, and the market continues to apply a state-risk discount.
$8 to $12 before dividends
More likely if oil prices weaken, domestic fuel prices lag market conditions, capex or leverage rises, project returns disappoint, Brazil policy becomes less shareholder-friendly, or the real depreciates sharply.
PBR AI technical analysis
PBR AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a July 31 close of $19.40, a 50-day moving average of $17.87, a 200-day moving average of $16.26, RSI of 65.64, and 20-day average volume of about 15.50 million shares. The chart sits above both moving averages after a roughly 50% twelve-month gain, but momentum is closer to overbought than it was in mid-2026.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $19.40 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 regular-session close at $19.40, up 1.46% on the day. |
| Immediate support | $17.80 to $18.20 | This area brackets the 50-day moving average near $17.87 and is the first test for any pullback. |
| Deeper support | $16.00 to $16.60 | The 200-day moving average near $16.26 sits in this zone and is the main long-term trend reference. |
| Near resistance | $20.00 to $20.60 | Round-number supply near $20.00 and the immediate post-rally range act as the first resistance zone. |
| Upper resistance | $22.20 to $22.80 | This zone combines the 52-week high of $22.24 and the listed analyst average target of $22.20. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $17.87, 200-day $16.26 | A sustained hold above the 50-day average keeps the short-term setup positive. A close back below $17.87 would reduce momentum confidence. |
| Momentum | RSI 65.64 | Momentum is firmer than in mid-2026 but approaching overbought, so a consolidation or pullback would be normal. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 15.50 million shares | Volume should confirm a move through either moving-average level because PBR can react to oil, Brazil, dividend, and policy news. |
| Volatility | Watch August 6, 2026 earnings | Quarterly production, capex, debt, dividends, domestic pricing, oil prices, and currency moves can all change volatility quickly. |
| Invalidation | Close below $17.87, then below $16.26 | A sustained break below the 50-day region weakens the constructive short-term view. A break below the 200-day average challenges the longer-term trend. |
PBR AI trading strategy
The PBR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links price levels with Brent oil, pre-salt production, refinery throughput, domestic fuel-price policy, Brazilian real moves, net debt, capex, dividend declarations, and government decisions.
Watch for PBR to hold above the $17.80 to $18.20 support zone and build momentum toward $20.00 to $20.60 with improving oil prices, stable currency conditions, and August 6 quarterly results that support free cash flow after investment.
A close below $17.87 followed by a break of the 50-day average should reduce trend confidence, particularly if management raises capex, debt, or domestic-price intervention concerns.
If PBR pulls back toward the $16.00 to $16.60 region near the 200-day average, compare the lower price with normalized earnings, dividend capacity, net debt including leases, commodity conditions, and the policy environment rather than relying on the headline P/E alone.
Do not treat a price decline as value automatically if it comes with lower oil prices, a weaker real, a dividend reset, higher leverage, poor project returns, or less commercial fuel pricing.
Track Brent, realized prices, pre-salt output, refinery utilization, domestic fuel-price decisions, cash and financial investments, gross debt, lease liabilities, capex, dividends, Brazil regulatory news, and the August earnings release.
Position sizing should reflect that PBR combines commodity exposure with state-control and foreign-exchange risk. It is not a guaranteed income stock or a precise AI price prediction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Petrobras for fuels, oil products, crude oil, natural gas, logistics, and energy services. The company turns pre-salt reserves, offshore production, refining capacity, transport assets, trading, and domestic distribution into cash flow that rises and falls with commodities and Brazilian policy.
Petrobras has access to major pre-salt resources, deepwater technical capability, an integrated Brazilian asset base, local scale, infrastructure, and brand recognition. Its moat is meaningful operationally, but state ownership can redirect part of the economic benefit toward public-policy objectives.
The thesis fails if oil prices fall, refining margins weaken, fuel pricing becomes less commercial, capex earns poor returns, debt and lease commitments grow, the real weakens, offshore projects slip, environmental costs rise, or dividends become secondary to state priorities.
Management is pursuing production growth, refinery efficiency, new exploration, and energy investments under CEO Magda Chambriard. Record 2Q26 output and a refinery utilization factor above 100% show execution progress. The shareholder test is whether that agenda protects capital discipline and durable distributions when political and commodity conditions are less favorable.
Energy security and Brazilian pre-salt development support long-lived demand for Petrobras assets. The counterweight is a capital-intensive industry facing oil-price cycles, decarbonization pressure, offshore safety obligations, and an evolving role for state energy companies.
The July 31 price screens cheaply on trailing earnings and free cash flow, but the discount has narrowed as the stock gained about 50% over the past year. A margin of safety requires conservative assumptions about normalized oil prices, domestic pricing, capex, leverage, dividend policy, and the value that minority shareholders can actually receive.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PBR quote reference | $19.40 regular-session close on July 31, 2026, after-hours $19.60 | StockAnalysis PBR overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $125.01 billion calculated from $19.40 x 6.444 billion ADS equivalents. StockAnalysis reported $118.28 billion, a 5.69% timing and share-class presentation difference. | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis PBR statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Share count and ADS conversion | 12.889 billion common and preferred shares, equal to about 6.444 billion ADS equivalents because each ADS represents two shares | Petrobras Q1 2026 Form 6-K | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | R$497.55 billion, cross-checked between Petrobras management reporting and StockAnalysis financial data | Petrobras 2025 Management Report | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 Petrobras shareholder income | R$110.13 billion, cross-checked between Petrobras management reporting and StockAnalysis financial data | Petrobras 2025 Management Report | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and income | $23.54 billion sales revenue and $6.22 billion consolidated net income | Petrobras Q1 2026 Form 6-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, investments, and debt | $6.57 billion cash, $2.55 billion financial investments, and $27.54 billion finance debt at March 31, 2026, with $43.68 billion in lease liabilities on the balance sheet. | Petrobras Q1 2026 Form 6-K | August 2, 2026 |
| 2Q26 production record | Total own production of 3.34 million boe per day, up 14.1% from 2Q25, with refinery utilization at 101.2% and Buzios field output above 1.2 million barrels per day | Petrobras 2Q26 Production and Sales Report on Form 6-K | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | Reported 5.74x P/E, 1.38x P/B, 7.00x P/FCF, $0.96 annual dividend, and 4.95% indicated yield. ADS-equivalent inputs used for reproducible math were $3.20 EPS, $13.24 book value per ADS, and $2.62 FCF per ADS. | StockAnalysis PBR statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst forecast | 14 analysts, consensus Buy, average price target $22.20 with a low of $17.40 and a high of $26.00, last updated June 25, 2026 | StockAnalysis PBR forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day moving average $17.87, 200-day moving average $16.26, RSI 65.64, 20-day average volume about 15.50 million, 52-week range $11.43 to $22.24, and 52-week price change of +50.04% | StockAnalysis PBR statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This PBR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell Petrobras stock, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, can be wrong, and should be updated when earnings, oil prices, foreign exchange, debt, capex, dividend, regulatory, environmental, or political information changes.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
