Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. research snapshot
WMS AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Advanced Drainage Systems as a high-margin water management compounder whose stock has pulled back from the July highs and now trades below every major moving average. The stock closed at $138.48 on July 31, 2026, down about 8% from the $150.47 reference of mid-July, with a market capitalization near $10.61 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $138.48 times 76.65 million shares outstanding with only a 0.04% deviation across the StockAnalysis.com quote, statistics, and history pages. Fiscal 2026, reported May 21, 2026, delivered net sales of $3.05 billion up 5%, Adjusted EBITDA of $962.9 million up 8.3% at a 31.6% margin, adjusted EPS of $6.27 up 6.5%, and free cash flow of $569.3 million, with the NDS acquisition closed on February 2, 2026 for about $1.0 billion in cash. At the June 18, 2026 Investor Day the company set fiscal 2030 targets of greater than 8% organic revenue CAGR and greater than $1.2 billion in Adjusted EBITDA, while guiding fiscal 2027 to net sales of $3.35 billion to $3.55 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $1.0 billion to $1.05 billion under a cautious demand outlook. The Q1 FY2027 report is scheduled for August 6, 2026 before market open. The pullback reflects macro pressure: elevated interest rates, residential construction softness, inflationary input and transportation costs that management is offsetting dollar for dollar through pricing, and a stock that traded above $150 in July despite a flat to modest fiscal 2027 growth outlook. At $138.48 the stock trades at about 25.4x trailing GAAP EPS, 21.5x forward adjusted EPS, 18.6x free cash flow, and a 0.58% dividend yield, with net debt of about $1.55 billion and leverage of 1.6x after the NDS deal. AI confidence in the descriptive facts is high because the key figures were re-fetched and cross-validated on August 3, 2026 across StockAnalysis.com, the Q4 FY2026 earnings release, the earnings call, and the Investor Day transcript. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$138.48
Market cap
$10.61 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-margin water infrastructure platform trading below its moving averages after a summer pullback
Trend status
Bearish short term: price sits below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ADS is a leading maker of thermoplastic stormwater pipe, allied drainage products, and onsite wastewater systems across commercial, residential, infrastructure, and agricultural markets, with fiscal 2026 revenue of $3.05 billion, a 31.6% Adjusted EBITDA margin, and a track record of outgrowing its two largest end markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat combines scale manufacturing, North America leading plastic recycling, a company-owned last-mile delivery fleet, broad distribution and product breadth across pipe, chambers, tanks, and advanced treatment, with NDS adding turf and irrigation channels and about $50 million of targeted cross-selling synergies. | Medium-high |
| Management | D. Scott Barbour has led ADS since September 2017, growing it from a pipe-centric model to a stormwater and wastewater platform. Capital allocation has been disciplined: cash funding of the roughly $1.0 billion NDS deal, 1.6x leverage, $569 million free cash flow, a 31.6% Adjusted EBITDA margin, and an 11% dividend raise in May 2026. | High |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2026 net sales rose 5.0% to $3.05 billion, Adjusted EBITDA rose 8.3% to $962.9 million at a 31.6% margin, adjusted EPS rose 6.5% to $6.27, and free cash flow jumped 54.5% to $569.3 million, while GAAP diluted EPS from continuing operations fell to $5.45 on NDS acquisition and restructuring costs. | High |
| Valuation | At $138.48, the stock trades at about 25.4x trailing GAAP EPS, 21.5x forward adjusted EPS, 18.6x free cash flow, 3.5x sales, and a 0.58% dividend yield, so the multiple still requires durable growth and clean NDS integration to hold. | Medium |
| Technical trend | WMS closed at $138.48 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 42, a weak 14-day ADX near 16, and the 20-day directional index below the 20-day negative directional index, signaling a short-term bearish posture after the summer pullback. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are residential construction softness and interest rates, input and transportation cost inflation that management is offsetting with pricing, geopolitical uncertainty, NDS integration execution, higher net debt after the $1 billion deal, tariff exposure, and multiple compression if fiscal 2027 growth disappoints. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, the Q4 FY2026 earnings release, the earnings call, and the Investor Day transcript. Lower for forward return estimates because construction demand, input costs, and the multiple are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
WMS AI stock forecast
The WMS AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $138.48 and the fiscal 2027 consensus adjusted EPS estimate of $6.43. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $102, a base area near $154, and a bullish area near $199 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of 2%, 8%, and 12% and exit multiples of 15x, 19x, and 22x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$195 to $205
More likely if fiscal 2027 lands near the high end of the $3.35 billion to $3.55 billion sales guide, NDS cross-selling exceeds $50 million, Adjusted EBITDA margin stays near or above 30%, input cost inflation fades, residential construction recovers, and investors hold the stock near a high-20s to 30x multiple on growing adjusted EPS.
$148 to $160
More likely if ADS compounds adjusted EPS near the 8% Investor Day organic CAGR, keeps Adjusted EBITDA near the $1.0 billion to $1.05 billion guide, leverages down after NDS, and the stock holds a low-20s to mid-20s earnings multiple without a sharp construction rebound or recession.
$95 to $110
More likely if residential and non-residential demand stay soft, input and transportation inflation outpaces pricing, NDS synergies disappoint, net debt stays elevated, interest rates pressure the market, or investors reprice WMS toward a mid-teens earnings multiple.
WMS AI technical analysis
WMS AI technical analysis is bearish in the short term as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $138.48 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day average near $140.52, its 20-day average near $145.05, its 50-day average near $142.32, its 100-day average near $142.70, and its 200-day average near $147.59, after falling from a $150.47 close on July 10 and a mid-June range near $155 to $157. 14-day RSI near 42 is weak but not oversold, and 14-day ADX near 16 with the 20-day directional index below the 20-day negative directional index confirms negative short-term pressure.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $138.48 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 76.65 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $140.52 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $140.52 on July 31, 2026, above the close, confirming near-term weakness. |
| 20-day moving average | $145.05 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $145.05, now overhead resistance after the pullback. |
| 50-day moving average | $142.32 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $142.32 on July 31, 2026. |
| 100-day moving average | $142.70 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $142.70, forming a resistance cluster with the 50-day. |
| 200-day moving average | $147.59 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day trend line near $147.59, above price and now a key resistance. |
| Near support | $135 to $137 | Recent July lows near $136 to $137 form the first support band, with the July 29 low at $137.41 and the July 31 low at $136.07. |
| Deeper support | $129 to $130 | June 5 and June 10 lows near $129.30 to $129.85 mark the next major support zone below the recent range. |
| Breakout resistance | $179.32 | The 52-week high remains near $179.32, well above price; reclaiming the moving average cluster near $142 to $148 is the first repair step. |
| Momentum | RSI near 42, weak ADX near 16 | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 42.36 and 9-day RSI near 38.56, weak but not oversold, with 14-day ADX near 15.67 indicating a weak, directionless trend. |
| Volume | About 0.6 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 596,000 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 592,000 on July 31, 2026, lower than the June peaks above 1.9 million. |
| Volatility | Elevated | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 32.5%, so position sizing should account for larger swings around the August 6 Q1 report and construction data. |
| Invalidation | Close below $135, reclaim above $145 | A decisive close below the $135 to $137 support band would open the $129 to $130 zone; a close back above the 20-day near $145 would neutralize the short-term bearish posture. |
WMS AI trading strategy
The WMS AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for watching the pullback and the August 6 Q1 FY2027 report. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for WMS to reclaim its 50-day and 100-day moving averages near $142 to $143 and then the 200-day near $147.59 with rising volume, combined with a Q1 report that confirms the fiscal 2027 guide and NDS momentum.
A daily close below the $135 support band or a failed attempt at the moving average cluster should trigger a stop and review, especially if residential or non-residential data weakens.
If WMS pulls back toward the $129 to $137 support zone without margin or demand damage, compare the lower price with free cash flow, net debt, Adjusted EBITDA margin, NDS synergy commentary, and construction data before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because interest rate news, input inflation, or an NDS integration miss can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track net sales, stormwater and wastewater mix, Adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, net debt, share count, NDS contribution and synergies, resin and transportation cost commentary, residential versus non-residential trends, and the August 6 Q1 FY2027 report.
Reduce confidence if growth depends mainly on price increases rather than organic volume, if Adjusted EBITDA margin compresses toward the mid-20s, or if net debt keeps rising after NDS.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Advanced Drainage Systems for durable, lighter, easier-to-install stormwater and wastewater systems that move, store, and treat water more efficiently than traditional concrete or metal alternatives, spanning commercial, residential, infrastructure, and agricultural projects.
The moat is built on manufacturing scale, North America leading plastic recycling, a company-owned last-mile delivery fleet, broad distribution, product breadth across pipe, allied products, and onsite wastewater systems, and growing retail and turf channels through NDS. It is not an impregnable network moat, so execution and cost control must keep renewing the advantage.
The thesis can fail if residential and non-residential construction stay weak, resin, diesel, and common carrier costs erase price and cost gains, NDS integration underdelivers, leverage stays high after the roughly $1 billion cash deal, or a quality stock multiple hides cyclical earnings risk.
D. Scott Barbour has led ADS since 2017 and pushed it from a pipe-centric model to a broader stormwater and onsite wastewater platform. Capital allocation now hinges on proving that the NDS purchase improves mix, margins, and returns rather than just expanding debt.
Long-term support comes from water infrastructure investment, stormwater regulation, material conversion from concrete and metal to plastic systems, data center construction, and resilience spending. The near-term counterweight is private construction softness, housing affordability, interest rates, and input cost swings.
At about 21.5x forward adjusted EPS, 18.6x free cash flow, and a 0.58% dividend yield, margin of safety is limited if growth stalls. The base case points near $154 before dividends, while the bearish case points near $102 if growth and the multiple both reset.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| WMS price | $138.48 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $10.61 billion, computed as $138.48 x 76.65 million shares outstanding, 0.04% deviation | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 net sales | $3,050.4 million, up 5.0% from $2,904.2 million, matching across StockAnalysis.com and the earnings release with 0.00% deviation | Company Q4 FY2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 segment sales | Stormwater $2,397.4 million up 3.1%, Wastewater $653.0 million up 13.0% | Company Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 earnings | Adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $6.27 up 6.5%; GAAP diluted EPS from continuing operations of $5.45 down 5.4% | Company Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | $962.9 million up 8.3%, margin 31.6% versus 30.6%, matching the Investor Day summary of $963 million | Company Q4 FY2026 earnings release and Investor Day | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 cash flow | Operating cash flow of $819.1 million, free cash flow of $569.3 million up 54.5% from $368.5 million, capital expenditures of $249.8 million | Company Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet after NDS | Net debt of $1,548.9 million as of March 31, 2026, up $586.5 million year over year; cash of $223.0 million; liquidity of $962.9 million; leverage ratio 1.6x | Company Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| NDS acquisition | Closed February 2, 2026 for about $1.0 billion in cash; about $48.8 million of Q4 stormwater sales; about $300 million expected in fiscal 2027; $25 million annual cost synergies targeted by year three and about $50 million in cross-selling synergies | Company Q4 FY2026 earnings release and call | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2027 guidance | Net sales of $3.35 billion to $3.55 billion, Adjusted EBITDA of $1.0 billion to $1.05 billion, capital expenditures of about $200 million | Company Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 report date | First quarter fiscal 2027 results scheduled for August 6, 2026 before market open | Business Wire announcement July 16, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Investor Day fiscal 2030 targets | Greater than 8% organic revenue CAGR from 2026 to 2030, greater than $1.2 billion Adjusted EBITDA by fiscal 2030, greater than 30% EBITDA margin, greater than 70% Adjusted EBITDA conversion into cash | Investor Day 2026 transcript and company site | August 3, 2026 |
| Investor Day market position | Total addressable market of about $16 billion (stormwater about $14 billion, wastewater about $2 billion) with about 21% overall share; wastewater at about 30% of its $2 billion market | Investor Day 2026 transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $0.80 per share, raised 11% in May 2026 to $0.20 per quarter, yield about 0.58%, payout ratio about 15% | Company dividend release and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Capital returns | Fiscal 2026 repurchases of 0.7 million shares for $99.2 million, $155.4 million returned to shareholders up 29.8%, with $1.0 billion remaining under the repurchase authorization | Company Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | About 25.4x trailing GAAP EPS, 3.5x sales, 5.4x book, 18.6x free cash flow, 0.58% dividend yield, EV/EBITDA about 14.7 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | Forward PE about 21.5x on the $6.43 fiscal 2027 consensus adjusted EPS estimate, PEG about 1.52 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average target of $182.20 across 10 analysts, low $165 and high $205, median $180, about 31.6% above the July 31 close | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 8 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell out of 10 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Barclays raised to $191 from $181 on July 14, RBC Capital maintained $170, KeyBanc maintained $185, Jefferies initiated at $175 on June 11, UBS maintained $205, Oppenheimer lowered to $190 from $195, KeyBanc previously lowered to $185 from $198, UBS previously lowered to $205 from $215 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 2.92 million shares short, 3.80% of shares outstanding, 4.10% of float, 3.34 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2027 and 2028 consensus estimates | Fiscal 2027 revenue estimate $3.45 billion with adjusted EPS $6.43, fiscal 2028 revenue estimate $3.67 billion with adjusted EPS $7.37 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and volume | 52-week range of about $110.85 to $179.32; 20-day average volume near 592,000 shares | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $140.52, 20-day SMA near $145.05, 50-day SMA near $142.32, 100-day SMA near $142.70, 200-day SMA near $147.59, 14-day RSI near 42.36, 14-day ADX near 15.67, 14-day historical volatility near 32.5% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 adjusted results | $676.8 million net sales up 9.9% with organic sales up 2.0%, Adjusted EBITDA of $188.0 million up 6.4% at a 27.8% margin, adjusted EPS of $1.07 up 3.9% | Company Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 GAAP results | Net income from continuing operations of $35.2 million down 54.1%, diluted EPS from continuing operations of $0.43 down 56.6%, impacted by NDS transaction and restructuring costs | Company Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
This WMS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, market moves, or macro conditions.
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