Vistra Corp. research snapshot
VST AI stock analysis currently reads Vistra Corp. as a scarce U.S. competitive power platform with nuclear, natural gas, retail electricity, wholesale power, hedging, and AI data center demand exposure. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, VST traded near $152.39, and the audited market cap check produced about $51.38 billion using 337.18 million shares outstanding. The positive case is that higher capacity prices, nuclear scarcity value, Meta power purchase agreements, gas fleet acquisitions, buybacks, and 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance can support earnings power. The caution is that the VST AI stock forecast depends on volatile power prices, hedging marks, PJM and ERCOT rules, debt, deal execution, and whether investors keep paying a premium for the AI power demand theme.
Current price
$152.39
Market cap
$51.38 billion verified market cap
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-quality competitive power and retail electricity franchise with nuclear, gas, AI data center demand, commodity, regulation, and leverage risk
Trend status
Volatile neutral-to-weak trend, near the 50-day average, below the 200-day average, and far below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Vistra sells electricity and natural gas to retail customers and owns a large competitive generation fleet across natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery assets. | High |
| Moat | The moat is asset scarcity, market position in ERCOT and PJM, nuclear baseload value, retail customer scale, hedging capability, and the difficulty of building dispatchable power quickly. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jim Burke has emphasized disciplined growth, share repurchases, dividend growth, and fleet expansion. The test is whether acquisitions and buybacks create value after debt and commodity risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $17.738 billion, GAAP net income was $944 million, and Q1 2026 net income improved to $1.029 billion with ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of $1.494 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $152.39, audited math shows about 25.7x TTM EPS, 28.5x free cash flow per share, 2.6x sales per share, and a 0.60% dividend yield. The valuation requires strong power market execution. | High |
| Technical trend | Technical data is mixed to weak. The stock is near $152, close to the 50-day average, below the 200-day average, and well below the 52-week high near $219.82. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are power price volatility, hedge mark-to-market swings, weather, outage risk, capacity market reform, political limits on power prices, nuclear and gas plant execution, debt, and acquisition integration. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because filings, company releases, and quote services are fresh. Return confidence is lower because forward power prices, market rules, and multiple support are hard to forecast. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | VST has strong strategic exposure to U.S. electricity scarcity, but the stock is no longer an undiscovered asset story and needs continued EBITDA delivery. | Medium |
VST AI stock forecast
The VST AI stock forecast uses the $152.39 price reference, TTM EPS of $5.92, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $81.20, a base value near $164.10, and a bullish value near $272.30 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$250 to $280
More likely if 2026 adjusted EBITDA lands near the high end of the $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion range, Meta and other power contracts support nuclear value, the Cogentrix and Lotus assets integrate well, PJM and ERCOT pricing stays constructive, and the market keeps valuing VST as an AI power scarcity winner.
$155 to $175
More likely if EPS compounds at a high single-digit rate, free cash flow supports debt service and buybacks, retail and generation remain balanced, and the stock holds a low-20s earnings multiple despite commodity volatility.
$75 to $90
More likely if power prices weaken, capacity market rules cap upside, hedges move against the company, outages rise, debt refinancing costs increase, acquisitions disappoint, or investors compress VST toward a lower merchant utility multiple.
VST AI technical analysis
VST AI technical analysis uses market data available at the July 8, 2026 cutoff. Robinhood showed VST around $152.39 on July 8 with an intraday range of about $152.20 to $156.49, market cap near $51.38 billion, PE near 26.0, and dividend yield near 0.58%. Technical sources showed weak daily signals, with the stock near its 50-day moving average, below its 200-day moving average, and still about 30% below the 52-week high near $219.82.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $152.39 | Live quote reference used for this static page at the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $148 to $152 | This zone includes recent pivot support and the lower part of the July 8 intraday range. |
| 50-day area | $154 to $156 | Technical sources placed the 50-day simple moving average near the mid-$150s, making this a short-term trend test. |
| 200-day area | $161 to $162 | A sustained move back above the 200-day average would improve the medium-term technical setup. |
| Near resistance | $160 to $172 | This range covers the nearby resistance and pivot levels cited by technical services. |
| Major resistance | $200 to $220 | The prior AI power trade high and 52-week high near $219.82 remain the main overhead zone. |
| Momentum | RSI near neutral to weak | Technical services cited RSI readings around the mid-40s to low-50s, which does not confirm a strong trend. |
| Volume | July 8 intraday volume near 737.7 thousand versus 3.95 million average | A breakout above $160 to $172 would need better volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | High event and theme sensitivity | VST can move quickly around earnings, capacity auctions, regulatory proposals, AI data center power news, and acquisition updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $148 | A decisive close below recent support would weaken the mean-reversion setup and raise the odds of a deeper retest. |
VST AI trading strategy
The VST AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links power demand, nuclear and gas asset value, capacity prices, hedging, free cash flow, leverage, buybacks, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for VST to reclaim the $160 to $172 resistance zone with stronger volume while Q2 results confirm adjusted EBITDA guidance, cash generation, deal progress, and stable regulatory commentary.
A close below $148, weaker August earnings commentary, or evidence that power price upside is being capped should reduce trend-following confidence.
If VST pulls back toward the $148 support area without a thesis break, compare the price with base-case value, expected adjusted free cash flow before growth, net debt, buyback pace, and capacity market updates.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the cause is a structural reset in capacity pricing, a major plant outage, poor acquisition economics, or higher refinancing risk.
Track 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, adjusted free cash flow before growth, Q1-to-Q4 seasonality, retail margins, generation outages, nuclear contracts, gas acquisitions, debt, share repurchases, and PJM or ERCOT rule changes.
Position sizing should reflect that VST is a strong power scarcity asset with meaningful downside if power market expectations or the AI demand premium fade.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Vistra because households, businesses, wholesale buyers, and grid markets need reliable electricity supply, retail energy service, capacity, hedging, and dispatchable generation when demand rises.
The moat is not a consumer brand moat. It comes from hard-to-build power plants, nuclear and gas capacity, scale in competitive markets, retail load, hedging knowledge, operating experience, and scarce interconnection value.
The thesis fails if regulators cap scarcity pricing, power demand disappoints, hedges obscure cash earnings, outages rise, debt limits flexibility, or investors decide the AI data center demand story was overcapitalized.
Jim Burke and the board have returned capital through dividends and buybacks while expanding generation through Lotus, Cogentrix, and nuclear power agreements. Capital allocation quality depends on price paid, debt cost, and execution.
Long-term demand is supported by data centers, electrification, industrial load, grid reliability needs, and the scarcity of firm power. The counterweight is political pressure when electricity prices rise.
At $152.39, VST is priced for strong earnings delivery rather than deep value. Margin of safety depends on durable adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow after growth, disciplined leverage, and avoiding another multiple reset.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VST quote reference | $152.39 on July 8, 2026, with intraday range around $152.20 to $156.49 | Robinhood VST quote | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $51.38 billion calculated from $152.39 x 337.18 million shares, matching reported market cap within 0.01% | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis VST statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 337.18 million current shares outstanding; 336,954,256 shares outstanding as of February 18, 2026 in the 2025 Form 10-K | StockAnalysis VST statistics and Vistra 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $17.738 billion operating revenue and $944 million GAAP net income, cross-validated against company filing, company release, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends | Vistra 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue, net income, and adjusted EBITDA | $5.640 billion operating revenue, $1.029 billion net income, and $1.494 billion ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 | Vistra Q1 2026 results release and SEC Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net debt context | $634 million cash and cash equivalents in Q1 2026 Form 10-Q; StockAnalysis showed $658 million cash and $19.93 billion debt | SEC Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis VST statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Management reaffirmed 2026 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and adjusted FCFbG guidance of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion | Vistra Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Capital return | Vistra executed about $6.3 billion in share repurchases since November 2021 and had about $1.5 billion of authorization remaining as of May 1, 2026 | Vistra Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical reference | Recent technical sources showed weak daily signals, 50-day average near the mid-$150s, 200-day average near $161.50, and 52-week high near $219.82 | Financhill, MovingAverages.com, MarketWatch, and Robinhood | July 8, 2026 |
This VST AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a rating, or a recommendation to buy or sell Vistra Corp. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 8, 2026, can be wrong, and may change with filings, market prices, regulatory updates, and company guidance.
