Vistra Corp. research snapshot
VST AI stock analysis currently reads Vistra Corp. as a scarce U.S. competitive power and retail electricity platform with nuclear, natural gas, wholesale power, hedging, and AI data center demand exposure. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, VST last closed near $148.19 on July 31, 2026, and the audited market cap check produced about $49.97 billion using 337.18 million shares outstanding. The positive case is that higher capacity prices, nuclear scarcity value, the Meta power purchase agreements, the Helix Digital Infrastructure partnership with KKR and Nvidia, the pending Cogentrix gas fleet acquisition, buybacks, and the reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance can support earnings power. The caution is that the VST AI stock forecast depends on volatile power prices, hedging marks, PJM and ERCOT rules, debt, acquisition execution, the upcoming Q2 2026 report on August 7, 2026, and whether investors keep paying a premium for the AI power demand theme after a roughly 28% decline over the past 52 weeks.
Current price
$148.19
Market cap
$49.97 billion verified market cap
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality competitive power and retail electricity franchise with nuclear, gas, AI data center demand, commodity, regulation, leverage, and execution risk
Trend status
Weak-to-neutral downtrend, below the 50-day and 200-day averages, RSI near 42, and about 33% below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Vistra sells electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and owns a large competitive generation fleet across natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery assets. | High |
| Moat | The moat is asset scarcity, market position in ERCOT and PJM, nuclear baseload value, retail customer scale, hedging capability, and the difficulty of building dispatchable power quickly. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jim Burke has emphasized disciplined growth, share repurchases, dividend growth, and fleet expansion, and the company reached investment grade at two credit agencies. The test is whether Cogentrix and the Helix and Meta arrangements create value after debt and commodity risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $19.45 billion and TTM net income about $2.05 billion. FY2025 revenue was $17.738 billion with $944 million net income attributable to Vistra, and Q1 2026 net income was $1.029 billion including a $723 million unrealized hedge gain. | High |
| Valuation | At $148.19, audited math shows about 25.0x TTM EPS, a forward P/E near 16.1x, 2.6x sales, 27.7x free cash flow per share, an EV/EBITDA near 10.7x, and a 0.62% dividend yield. The valuation requires continued power market execution. | High |
| Technical trend | Technical data is weak to neutral. The stock is below the 50-day average near $156, below the 200-day average near $164, RSI is near 42, MACD is negative, and the 52-week high is near $219.82. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are power price volatility, hedge mark-to-market swings, weather, outage risk, capacity market reform, political limits on power prices, nuclear and gas plant execution, debt, Cogentrix integration, and crowding in the AI power trade. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because filings, company releases, quote services, and analyst consensus are fresh. Return confidence is lower because forward power prices, market rules, and multiple support are hard to forecast. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | VST has strong strategic exposure to U.S. electricity scarcity and is well covered by analysts, but the stock is no longer an undiscovered asset story and needs continued EBITDA and free cash flow delivery after a 28% drawdown. | Medium |
VST AI stock forecast
The VST AI stock forecast uses the $148.19 price reference, TTM EPS of $5.92, consensus 2026 adjusted EPS near $8.38, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $100, a base value near $180, and a bullish value near $265 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$240 to $290
More likely if 2026 adjusted EBITDA lands near the high end of the $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion range, Q2 results on August 7 confirm momentum, the Cogentrix and Lotus assets integrate well, Helix and the Meta power contracts convert into contracted premium for nuclear and gas capacity, PJM and ERCOT pricing stays constructive, and the market keeps valuing VST as an AI power scarcity winner.
$160 to $200
More likely if EPS compounds at a high-single-digit to low-double-digit rate from the consensus 2026 adjusted EPS near $8.38, free cash flow supports debt service and buybacks, retail and generation remain balanced, and the stock holds a mid-to-high-teens forward multiple despite commodity volatility.
$90 to $115
More likely if power prices weaken, capacity market rules cap upside, hedges move against the company, outages rise, debt refinancing costs increase, the Cogentrix deal disappoints, or investors compress VST toward a lower merchant utility multiple and decide the AI data center demand story was overcapitalized.
VST AI technical analysis
VST AI technical analysis uses market data available at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis and Financhill showed VST closing around $148.19 on July 31, 2026 with a day range of about $146.52 to $153.13. Technical sources showed a strongly bearish short-term signal set, with the stock below the 8, 20, and 50-day moving averages near $152 to $157, below the 200-day average near $163.80, MACD negative near minus 1.78, RSI near 42.48, and about 33% below the 52-week high near $219.82.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $148.19 | Last close on July 31, 2026, used as the quote reference for this static page at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $144 to $148 | This zone covers recent July consolidation lows, the lower Bollinger band near $148.34, and the lower part of the recent trading range. |
| 52-week low area | $132 to $136 | The 52-week low near $132.66 is the main downside reference. A sustained break below it would open the way to a deeper retest. |
| 50-day area | $156 to $157 | The 50-day simple moving average was near $156.15 and the 20-day average near $156.71, making this a key near-term trend test. |
| 200-day area | $163 to $164 | The 200-day simple moving average near $163.80 and the upper Bollinger band define the medium-term resistance cluster. |
| Near resistance | $157 to $170 | This range covers the moving average cluster, the upper Bollinger band near $162.90, and nearby pivot levels cited by technical services. |
| Major resistance | $200 to $220 | The prior AI power trade high and the 52-week high near $219.82 remain the main overhead zone. |
| Momentum | RSI near 42 with negative MACD | Financhill showed RSI near 42.48 and MACD near minus 1.78, which does not confirm a strong trend and signals some oversold conditions. |
| Volume | July 31 volume near 4.39 million versus 4.01 million 20-day average | A reclaim of the $156 to $164 resistance zone would need better volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | High event and theme sensitivity | Beta is about 1.41 and VST can move quickly around the August 7 Q2 earnings report, capacity auctions, regulatory proposals, AI data center power news, and acquisition updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $132.66 | A decisive close below the 52-week low would weaken both trend-following and mean-reversion setups, while a move above $156 to $164 with volume would improve them. |
VST AI trading strategy
The VST AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links power demand, nuclear and gas asset value, capacity prices, hedging, free cash flow, leverage, buybacks, the August 7 earnings event, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for VST to reclaim the $156 to $164 resistance zone with stronger volume while the August 7 Q2 report confirms adjusted EBITDA guidance, cash generation, Cogentrix progress, and stable regulatory commentary.
A close below $132.66, weaker Q2 commentary, or evidence that power price upside is being capped should reduce trend-following confidence.
If VST holds above the $144 to $148 support area without a thesis break, compare the price with base-case value, consensus 2026 adjusted EPS near $8.38, expected adjusted free cash flow before growth, net debt, buyback pace, and capacity market updates.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the cause is a structural reset in capacity pricing, a major plant outage, poor Cogentrix economics, higher refinancing risk, or a loss of confidence in the AI power premium.
Track the Q2 2026 results on August 7, 2026, full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, adjusted free cash flow before growth, retail margins, generation outages, nuclear contracts, the Cogentrix close, the Helix and Meta arrangements, debt, share repurchases, and PJM or ERCOT rule changes.
Position sizing should reflect that VST is a strong power scarcity asset with meaningful downside if power market expectations, the Helix or Meta contributions, or the AI demand premium fade.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Vistra because households, businesses, wholesale buyers, and grid markets need reliable electricity supply, retail energy service, capacity, hedging, and dispatchable generation when demand rises.
The moat is not a consumer brand moat. It comes from hard-to-build power plants, nuclear and gas capacity, scale in competitive markets, retail load, hedging knowledge, operating experience, and scarce interconnection value.
The thesis fails if regulators cap scarcity pricing, power demand disappoints, hedges obscure cash earnings, outages rise, debt limits flexibility, Cogentrix integration stalls, or investors decide the AI data center demand story was overcapitalized.
Jim Burke and the board have returned capital through dividends and buybacks, reached investment grade at two agencies, and expanded generation through Lotus, Cogentrix, Meta power agreements, and the Helix Digital Infrastructure partnership. Capital allocation quality depends on price paid, debt cost, and execution.
Long-term demand is supported by data centers, electrification, industrial load, grid reliability needs, and the scarcity of firm power. The counterweight is political pressure when electricity prices rise and the risk that AI-driven load growth does not convert into durable contracted returns.
At $148.19, VST trades at about 25x TTM EPS, near 16x forward consensus EPS, and about 10.7x EV/EBITDA. That is not deep value. Margin of safety depends on durable adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow after growth, disciplined leverage, and avoiding another multiple reset.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VST quote reference | $148.19 last close on July 31, 2026, with a day range around $146.52 to $153.13 | StockAnalysis VST quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $49.97 billion calculated from $148.19 x 337.18 million shares, matching the reported market cap | StockAnalysis VST statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 337.18 million shares outstanding, down about 1.17% year over year | StockAnalysis VST statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue, net income, and EPS | About $19.45 billion TTM revenue, $2.05 billion TTM net income, and $5.92 TTM EPS | StockAnalysis VST statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $17.738 billion operating revenue and $944 million net income attributable to Vistra, with about $752 million attributable to common stock after preferred dividends | StockAnalysis VST financials and Vistra 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue, net income, and adjusted EBITDA | $5.640 billion operating revenue, $1.029 billion net income including a $723 million unrealized hedge gain, and $1.494 billion ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 | Vistra Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance and 2027 opportunity | Management reaffirmed 2026 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion, adjusted FCFbG guidance of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion, and an ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion for 2027 | Vistra Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Hedging coverage | About 98% of expected 2026 generation volumes hedged, about 89% for 2027, and about 65% for 2028 | Vistra Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and liquidity | About $658 million cash and $20.57 billion total debt per StockAnalysis, with about $4.17 billion total available liquidity as of March 31, 2026 per Vistra | StockAnalysis VST statistics and Vistra Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital return | About $6.3 billion in share repurchases since November 2021, about 337 million shares outstanding, about $1.5 billion of authorization remaining, and a $0.23 quarterly dividend declared on July 29, 2026 for a 0.62% yield | Vistra Q1 2026 results release and Vistra dividend declaration | August 2, 2026 |
| Strategic growth | Vistra plans to acquire the 5,500 MW Cogentrix gas generation portfolio with a target close in the second half of 2026, signed long-term power purchase agreements with Meta at PJM nuclear sites, and joined KKR and Nvidia in launching the Helix Digital Infrastructure AI platform | Vistra Q1 2026 results release and WSJ via StockAnalysis news | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical reference | 50-day average near $156.15, 200-day average near $163.80, RSI near 42.48, negative MACD near minus 1.78, 52-week range of $132.66 to $219.82, and short interest near 3.74% of shares outstanding | Financhill and StockAnalysis VST statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy consensus from 20 analysts with an average price target near $221.94, a low near $106, and a high near $320; consensus 2026 revenue near $23.19 billion and 2026 adjusted EPS near $8.38 | StockAnalysis VST forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Next earnings | Second quarter 2026 results scheduled for Friday, August 7, 2026, before market open | StockAnalysis and Vistra earnings announcement | August 2, 2026 |
This VST AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a rating, or a recommendation to buy or sell Vistra Corp. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, can be wrong, and may change with filings, market prices, the August 7 Q2 earnings report, regulatory updates, and company guidance.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
