Viasat, Inc. research snapshot
VSAT AI stock analysis currently reads Viasat as a strategic communications company serving aviation, maritime, government satcom, broadband, cybersecurity, and defense customers. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, VSAT last closed at $73.56 on July 10 and market-cap math verified about $10.05 billion using 136.57 million shares. Fiscal 2026 revenue reached $4.64 billion, GAAP net loss attributable to Viasat common stockholders was $34.1 million, non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.03, and adjusted EBITDA was $1.55 billion. The bull case needs durable aviation and defense growth, successful multi-orbit execution, and continued debt reduction. The caution is that net debt was about $4.8 billion, FY2027 guidance calls for only mid-single-digit revenue growth with flat to slightly higher adjusted EBITDA, and the stock has already risen more than fivefold from its 52-week low.
Current price
$73.56
Market cap
$10.05 billion using 136.57 million shares, verified with 0.04% variance
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Strategic satellite communications and defense franchise with improving cash generation, high leverage, and a narrow margin of safety after a sharp re-rating
Trend status
Long-term trend remains constructive above the 200-day average near $49, while price is volatile and below the July 2026 high near $93
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Viasat sells recurring and project-based communications services, satellite capacity, terminals, encryption, network products, and space systems used where connectivity, coverage, security, or resilience matter. | High |
| Moat | The moat is moderate. It comes from satellite assets, spectrum and regulatory positions, installed aviation and maritime systems, mission-critical government relationships, network operations, and accumulated communications IP. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and Chairman CEO Mark Dankberg has led Viasat since its inception. The team has built a global communications platform through internal development and the Inmarsat acquisition, but capital allocation must now prove that scale can translate into debt reduction and durable returns. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue rose 2.7% to $4.64 billion, adjusted EBITDA was essentially flat at $1.55 billion, GAAP loss narrowed to $34.1 million, and reported FCF excluding the Ligado lump sum was $177 million. The mix is improving in Defense and Advanced Technologies, while Communication Services remains mature and uneven. | High |
| Valuation | At $73.56, the stock is about 71.42x FY2026 non-GAAP EPS, 2.16x book value, and 16.60x FY2026 free cash flow per share using the audited inputs. The equity price assumes much better execution than the low-growth FY2027 revenue and EBITDA outlook alone implies. | High |
| Technical trend | VSAT trades above the 50-day average near $70.97 and the 200-day average near $49.13, with a neutral RSI near 51. The long-term trend is positive, but the July high near $93.03 and large daily ranges show elevated reversal risk. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because net debt is about $4.8 billion, capex is expected near $950 million to $1.0 billion in FY2027, satellite projects can suffer launch or performance problems, and lower-cost or lower-latency alternatives can pressure service economics. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high. Return confidence is low to medium because the forecast depends on non-GAAP earnings, debt paydown, satellite execution, and a valuation multiple that may normalize after a very large price move. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | VSAT is a strategically relevant but financially levered communications platform. Certainty improves if FY2027 free cash flow reaches guidance, net debt continues to fall, backlog converts cleanly, and the price consolidates without a sharp earnings-multiple reset. | Medium-low |
VSAT AI stock forecast
The VSAT AI stock forecast uses the July 10 closing price of $73.56, FY2026 non-GAAP EPS of $1.03, and a three-year scenario model. The audited model produced a bullish point estimate near $71.2, a base point estimate near $32.4, and a bearish point estimate near $13.2. These are scenario outputs, not price promises. The current price is already close to the bullish model, so upside requires stronger earnings growth, faster deleveraging, or a higher sustained multiple.
$65 to $78
More likely if aviation and government satcom growth stays durable, Defense and Advanced Technologies grows faster than planned, PTS-G and other awards convert to revenue, multi-orbit satellites perform as planned, FCF reaches or exceeds guidance, and the market sustains a premium multiple near 40x non-GAAP EPS.
$28 to $36
More likely if FY2027 revenue grows in the guided mid-single-digit range, adjusted EBITDA is flat to slightly higher, FCF is near $180 million, net debt declines gradually, and the market values a capital-intensive satellite operator near 25x normalized non-GAAP EPS.
$12 to $15
More likely if satellite deployments or service quality disappoint, aviation or maritime demand weakens, defense awards arrive late, interest expense and capex absorb cash, debt reduction stalls, or investors re-rate VSAT toward a mid-teens earnings multiple.
VSAT AI technical analysis
VSAT AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 closing price and technical data available by the July 12 cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average near $70.97, a 200-day moving average near $49.13, RSI near 51.36, average 20-day volume near 3.32 million shares, and beta of 1.70. TipRanks data from July 6 placed the 20-day SMA near $68.79 and the 100-day SMA near $59.58. Price is above major trend averages, but the retreat from the $93.03 52-week high makes volatility and invalidation levels important.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $73.56 | July 10, 2026 closing price used for market-cap and valuation verification. |
| Immediate support | $69 to $71 | This zone contains the recent consolidation area and the 50-day moving average near $70.97. A close below it would weaken short-term trend structure. |
| Intermediate support | $59 to $64 | This zone covers the late June price base and the 100-day moving average near $59.58 from the July 6 technical snapshot. |
| Major support | $48 to $50 | This zone tracks the 200-day moving average near $49.13 and is the longer-term trend test after the large re-rating. |
| Near resistance | $83 to $88 | This area includes the July 1 to July 6 trading range. Reclaiming it would show that buyers are repairing the recent pullback. |
| Major resistance | $93 to $95 | The July 1 52-week high was about $93.03. A break above that level would require confirmation because recent volume and daily ranges were unusually large. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $68.79, 50-day $70.97, 100-day $59.58, 200-day $49.13 | Values combine the July 6 TipRanks snapshot with the July 11 StockAnalysis snapshot. The source dates are not identical. |
| Momentum | RSI near 51 and 52-week change about +376% | Momentum is neutral on RSI while the one-year return signals an extremely strong but extended trend. The two signals should not be treated as a guarantee of continuation. |
| Volume and volatility | 20-day average volume near 3.32M, beta 1.70, ATR near $7.02 | The high beta and ATR imply large position-level swings. July 1 volume was about 7.07M shares against a recent 20-day average near 3.32M. |
| Invalidation | Short-term below $60, long-term below $49 | A close below $60 would break the June base and 100-day area. A sustained break below the 200-day zone near $49 would invalidate the longer-term recovery structure. |
VSAT AI trading strategy
The VSAT AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price levels with aviation demand, government awards, backlog conversion, satellite execution, free cash flow, net debt, and valuation risk.
Watch for VSAT to hold the $69 to $71 area, reclaim the $83 to $88 resistance zone on credible volume, and maintain FY2027 operating signals near guidance. Confirmation is stronger if backlog converts while net debt continues to decline.
A close below $60, weaker aviation or government satcom commentary, a satellite execution issue, or a sharp deterioration in cash generation should reduce trend-following confidence.
If VSAT pulls back toward $59 to $64 or the 100-day average while aviation, Defense and Advanced Technologies, backlog, and FCF remain intact, compare the price with the base scenario rather than with the recent $93 high.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically cheap. The base model remains well below the current price if growth follows guidance and the market normalizes the earnings multiple.
Track Communication Services growth, Defense and Advanced Technologies awards and backlog, aircraft and vessel service counts, satellite milestones, FY2027 revenue and EBITDA delivery, capex, FCF near $180 million, and net debt relative to adjusted EBITDA.
Use a risk budget that reflects beta of 1.70, ATR near $7, substantial debt, high capex, and the possibility that government awards or satellite milestones arrive later than expected.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Viasat for connectivity and secure communications in places where terrestrial networks are unavailable, unreliable, too slow to deploy, or insufficiently resilient. The company combines satellites, ground systems, network operations, service contracts, terminals, encryption, and defense technologies across land, air, and sea.
The moat is built from satellite fleet and spectrum positions, installed aviation and maritime equipment, long qualification cycles, government trust, network operations, secure communications expertise, and the ability to combine commercial and defense capabilities. It is meaningful but not absolute against Starlink, Hughes, SES, Eutelsat, Iridium, and large defense contractors.
The thesis can fail through launch or satellite performance problems, weaker aircraft or maritime demand, slower government procurement, lower-latency competitors, a capex spike, refinancing pressure, or an equity multiple reset. A strategically important network can still be a poor investment if debt and capital intensity absorb the cash it generates.
Founder and Chairman CEO Mark Dankberg has led Viasat since inception. The company expanded through its own satellite and communications programs and the 2023 Inmarsat acquisition. The key capital-allocation test is whether management can convert scale, awards, and non-GAAP EBITDA into durable FCF and lower net leverage without sacrificing the next satellite cycle.
Secure multi-orbit connectivity, aviation Wi-Fi, maritime communications, government satcom, cybersecurity, and resilient defense networks are long-term trends. Viasat also has optionality from PTS-G and ViaSat-3, but satellite communications remains capital intensive and competition is moving quickly across GEO, MEO, LEO, and direct-to-device architectures.
At $73.56, Viasat is priced for a successful transition toward durable cash generation and stronger defense growth. The margin of safety depends on FY2027 FCF near $180 million, continued debt reduction, backlog conversion, and no major satellite failure. A 71.42x multiple on FY2026 non-GAAP EPS leaves little room for execution misses, even though the price to FCF is less extreme at about 16.60x.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VSAT quote reference | $73.56 closing price on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis historical price data | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $10.05 billion calculated from $73.56 x 136.568953 million shares, with 0.04% variance versus the reported market cap | Pineify financial_rigor.py, SEC 10-K, and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 136.568953 million shares as of May 8, 2026; StockAnalysis reported 136.57 million | Viasat FY2026 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue and net income | $4.6403 billion revenue and $34.1 million GAAP net loss attributable to Viasat common stockholders; StockAnalysis reported $4.640 billion and $34.09 million loss | Viasat Q4 FY2026 shareholder letter and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 earnings quality | $143.3 million non-GAAP net income, $1.03 non-GAAP diluted EPS, and $1.5501 billion adjusted EBITDA | Viasat Q4 FY2026 shareholder letter | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and liquidity | $1.747 billion cash, $6.585 billion gross outstanding debt, $4.838 billion net debt, and $2.895 billion total liquidity as of March 31, 2026 | Viasat FY2026 earnings presentation | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $177 million FY2026 free cash flow excluding the $420 million Ligado lump sum payment; $597 million including the payment | Viasat Q4 FY2026 shareholder letter and StockAnalysis cash flow data | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2027 company outlook | Mid-single-digit revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA flat to slightly higher, capex of $950 million to $1.0 billion, and approximately $180 million FCF excluding Ligado proceeds | Viasat Q4 FY2026 shareholder letter | July 12, 2026 |
| Backlog and awards | $4.073 billion FY2026 backlog, up 15% year over year, and $4.932 billion new contract awards | Viasat Q4 FY2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Defense catalyst | Viasat was selected by the U.S. Space Force to build, launch, and deliver a dual-band satellite system under PTS-G Swarm 1 | Viasat investor relations release | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day average near $70.97, 200-day average near $49.13, RSI 51.36, average volume near 3.32 million shares, beta 1.70, and 52-week range $14.00 to $93.03 | StockAnalysis statistics and TipRanks technical snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
This VSAT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if fundamentals, technical conditions, valuation multiples, satellite execution, or market conditions change.
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