Viasat, Inc. research snapshot
VSAT AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Viasat as a strategically positioned satellite communications and defense company that is still expensive after a massive re-rating. The stock closed at $76.93 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $10.60 billion, re-verified during this refresh as $76.93 times 137.76 million shares outstanding, matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. Fiscal 2026 revenue was $4.64 billion, the GAAP net loss was $34.1 million, non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.03, adjusted EBITDA was $1.55 billion, and free cash flow was $597 million including the one-time Ligado payment or about $177 million excluding it. Management reported record backlog near $4.1 billion, up 15% year over year, net debt near $4.8 billion, and net leverage down to 3.1x after paying down $743 million of debt in fiscal 2026, and guided fiscal 2027 to mid-single-digit revenue growth with adjusted EBITDA flat to up slightly and about $180 million of free cash flow. The bull case leans on record awards, defense and space momentum including the PTS-G Swarm 1 delivery order, ViaSat-3 service entry, and the Equitas shared-infrastructure optionality with Space42. The caution is that FY2027 consensus adjusted EPS is only about $0.30 after the prior year benefited from IP settlement income and the Navarino sale, the stock trades near 256x that forward estimate, fiscal 2027 growth guidance is modest, fixed broadband keeps declining, aviation competition is rising, and the shares have already risen about 396% in 52 weeks with short interest near 8.9% of shares outstanding. The refresh was executed against the StockAnalysis.com quote, statistics, forecast, financials, balance sheet, and history pages plus the Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript, and the valuation and market-cap math were run through the Pineify financial_rigor.py tool.
Current price
$76.93
Market cap
$10.60 billion, verified as $76.93 x 137.76 million shares with a 0.02% variance
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Improving satellite and defense franchise with record backlog and falling leverage, but priced for continued optionality after a roughly 400% twelve-month rally
Trend status
Long-term uptrend above the 200-day average near $52, with price above the 5, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day averages but far below the July 2026 high near $93
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Viasat sells recurring and project-based satellite and secure communications services, terminals, encryption, network products, and space systems used in aviation, maritime, government satcom, fixed broadband, cybersecurity, and defense applications. | High |
| Moat | The moat is moderate. It comes from satellite assets, spectrum and regulatory positions, installed aviation and maritime systems, mission-critical government relationships, network operations, secure encryption products, and accumulated communications IP. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and Chairman CEO Mark Dankberg has led Viasat since inception, adding new board members and a cooperation agreement with Carronade Capital Management in 2026. The team has cut net debt by $743 million, lowered net leverage to 3.1x, reached record backlog, and is evaluating the DAT business, but the fiscal 2027 outlook is intentionally conservative after a year of one-time gains. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 2.7% to $4.64 billion, adjusted EBITDA was essentially flat near $1.55 billion, the GAAP loss narrowed to $34.1 million, and free cash flow was $597 million including the Ligado payment or about $177 million excluding it, with five consecutive quarters of positive FCF. | High |
| Valuation | At $76.93, the stock is about 74.69x fiscal 2026 non-GAAP EPS, near 256x the fiscal 2027 consensus adjusted EPS estimate of about $0.30, 2.25x book value, and 17.75x trailing free cash flow per share. The price embeds a large amount of execution and optionality value. | High |
| Technical trend | VSAT closed above the 5-day average near $74.74, the 20-day near $73.29, the 50-day near $72.23, the 100-day near $64.98, and the 200-day near $52.23, with 14-day RSI near 55.4. The longer-term trend is positive, but 14-day ADX near 11.8 signals a choppy range, and the retreat from the $93.03 high shows reversal risk. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the price sits far above consensus forward earnings, net debt is near $4.8 billion, fiscal 2027 capex is guided at $950 million to $1 billion, fixed broadband keeps declining, aviation competition is rising, satellite projects face FCC and deployment timing, and short interest is about 8.9% of shares outstanding. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high. Return confidence is low to medium because the forecast depends on low forward adjusted EPS estimates, debt paydown, satellite execution, defense awards, and a valuation multiple that may normalize after a very large price move. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | VSAT is a strategically relevant but financially levered satellite and defense platform trading at an elevated multiple. Certainty improves if fiscal 2027 free cash flow reaches guidance, net debt keeps falling, ViaSat-3 enters service on time, backlog converts cleanly, and the price consolidates instead of resetting lower. | Medium-low |
VSAT AI stock forecast
The VSAT AI stock forecast uses the July 31, 2026 closing price of $76.93, the fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $1.55 billion, the fiscal 2027 consensus adjusted EPS estimate near $0.30, and a three-year scenario framework. The scenario model produced a bullish area near $115 to $145, a base area near $80 to $100, and a bearish area near $35 to $55, anchored on EBITDA growth, EV/EBITDA exit multiples, and net debt. The current price sits between the base and bullish scenarios, so upside requires better than guided execution while downside risk comes from a valuation reset on low forward earnings.
$115 to $145
More likely if DAT revenue grows in the mid-teens or better, aviation returns toward double-digit growth, ViaSat-3 capacity monetizes after FCC authorization, PTS-G and other defense and space awards expand, EBITDA reaches about $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion by fiscal 2029, and the market holds a premium EV/EBITDA multiple near 11x to 12x with net leverage below 2.5x.
$80 to $100
More likely if fiscal 2027 delivers mid-single-digit revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA is flat to up slightly, free cash flow is near the guided $180 million, net debt declines gradually, fixed broadband stabilizes as ViaSat-3 enters service, and the market values the business near a 9x to 10x EV/EBITDA multiple, consistent with the analyst average target near $94.
$35 to $55
More likely if aviation competition and fixed broadband declines pressure revenue, satellite deployment or FCC timing slips, defense awards convert slowly, EBITDA stalls below $1.4 billion, net leverage stays elevated, or investors re-rate the stock toward a 7x to 8x EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with the low analyst target near $49.
VSAT AI technical analysis
VSAT AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 closing price and technical data available by the August 3, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis.com reported a 50-day moving average near $72.23, a 200-day moving average near $52.23, RSI near 55.36, 20-day average volume near 2.07 million shares, and beta of 1.70. Barchart reported the 5-day average near $74.74, the 20-day near $73.29, the 100-day near $64.98, the 200-day near $52.23, 14-day RSI near 55.36, 14-day ADX near 11.82, and 14-day average true range near $5.67. Price is above every major trend average after a sharp rally and a July pullback, but the weak ADX and very large daily ranges make support and invalidation levels important.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $76.93 | July 31, 2026 closing price, down 0.86% on the day and up 10.56% on July 30 after a pullback from the early July highs. |
| Immediate support | $73 to $75 | This zone contains the 20-day average near $73.29 and the 5-day average near $74.74. A close below it would remove the short-term bullish edge. |
| Intermediate support | $68 to $72 | This zone covers the mid-July base near $68.71 to $70 and the 50-day average near $72.23. The July 16 low was near $68.71. |
| Major support | $64 to $65 | This zone tracks the 100-day moving average near $64.98 and is the longer-term trend test after the re-rating. |
| Near resistance | $80 to $83 | This area includes the early July closes near $83.02 to $83.80 and the July 6 high near $90.30. Reclaiming it would show buyers repairing the pullback. |
| Major resistance | $90 to $93 | The 52-week high was about $93.03 on July 1, 2026. A break above that level would need confirmation because June and early July volume was unusually large. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $74.74, 20-day $73.29, 50-day $72.23, 100-day $64.98, 200-day $52.23 | Values come from the Barchart technical snapshot and StockAnalysis.com statistics as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI near 55 and 52-week change about +396% | 14-day RSI near 55.36 is neutral, while the one-year return signals an extremely strong but extended trend. The two signals should not be treated as a guarantee of continuation. |
| Volume and volatility | 20-day average volume near 2.07M, beta 1.70, ATR near $5.67 | ATR near $5.67 is about 7.4% of price, and 50-day historical volatility is near 102%. July 1 volume was about 7.08 million shares against a 20-day average near 2.07 million. |
| Invalidation | Short-term below $72, medium-term below $65 | A close below $72 would break the 50-day area and the short-term structure. A sustained break below the 100-day zone near $65 would weaken the longer-term recovery, with the 200-day near $52 as the final test. |
VSAT AI trading strategy
The VSAT AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price levels with aviation demand, defense awards, backlog conversion, ViaSat-3 service entry, free cash flow, net debt, and valuation risk.
Watch for VSAT to hold the $73 to $75 area, reclaim the $80 to $83 resistance zone on credible volume, and maintain fiscal 2027 operating signals near guidance. Confirmation is stronger if backlog converts, ViaSat-3 reaches service entry, and net debt continues to decline.
A close below $72, weaker aviation or government satcom commentary, a satellite deployment delay, or a sharp deterioration in cash generation should reduce trend-following confidence.
If VSAT pulls back toward $68 to $72 or the 100-day average near $65 while aviation, DAT, backlog, and FCF remain intact, compare the price with the base scenario near $80 to $100 rather than with the recent $93 high.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically cheap. The consensus forward adjusted EPS estimate is only about $0.30, so a valuation reset could take the price well below the base scenario if guidance disappoints.
Track Communication Services revenue, DAT growth and backlog, aircraft and vessel service counts, ViaSat-3 flight and FCC milestones, PTS-G and defense awards, fiscal 2027 revenue and EBITDA delivery, capex near $950 million to $1 billion, free cash flow near the guided $180 million, and net debt relative to adjusted EBITDA.
Use a risk budget that reflects beta of 1.70, ATR near $5.67, net debt near $4.8 billion, high capex, low consensus forward EPS, and the possibility that government awards or satellite milestones arrive later than expected.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Viasat for connectivity and secure communications in places where terrestrial networks are unavailable, unreliable, too slow to deploy, or insufficiently resilient. The company combines satellites, ground systems, network operations, service contracts, terminals, encryption, and defense technologies across land, air, and sea.
The moat is built from satellite fleet and spectrum positions, installed aviation and maritime equipment, long qualification cycles, government trust, network operations, secure encryption products, and the ability to combine commercial and defense capabilities. It is meaningful but not absolute against Starlink, Hughes, SES, Eutelsat, Iridium, and large defense contractors.
The thesis can fail through launch, deployment, or FCC timing problems, weaker aircraft or maritime demand, faster or lower-cost competition, slower government procurement, a capex spike, refinancing pressure, or an equity multiple reset on low forward earnings. A strategically important network can still be a poor investment if debt and capital intensity absorb the cash it generates.
Founder and Chairman CEO Mark Dankberg has led Viasat since inception, and the company added Shekar Ayyar and Jinhy Yoon to the board and reached a cooperation agreement with Carronade Capital Management. Fiscal 2026 delivered record backlog, $743 million of debt paydown, net leverage of 3.1x, and five quarters of positive FCF. The key test is whether management can convert awards and non-GAAP EBITDA into durable FCF and lower net leverage without sacrificing the next satellite cycle.
Secure multi-orbit connectivity, aviation Wi-Fi, maritime communications, government satcom, encryption, resilient defense networks, and direct-to-device non-terrestrial networks are long-term trends. Viasat has optionality from PTS-G, ViaSat-3, and the Equitas shared-infrastructure entity with Space42, but satellite communications remains capital intensive and competition is moving quickly across GEO, MEO, and LEO architectures.
At $76.93, Viasat is priced for continued successful execution and optionality. The margin of safety depends on fiscal 2027 free cash flow near $180 million, continued debt reduction, ViaSat-3 service entry, backlog conversion, and no major satellite or competitive failure. A multiple near 74.69x fiscal 2026 non-GAAP EPS and about 256x the fiscal 2027 consensus adjusted EPS estimate leaves little room for execution misses, even though the price to trailing free cash flow is less extreme at about 17.75x.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VSAT quote reference | $76.93 closing price on July 31, 2026, down 0.86% on the day, with after-hours trading near $76.39 | StockAnalysis.com historical price data | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $10.60 billion calculated from $76.93 x 137.76 million shares, with 0.02% variance versus the reported market cap | Pineify financial_rigor.py, StockAnalysis.com, and company filings | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 137.76 million shares, up 4.88% year over year, with 135.39 million in the float and 1.68% owned by insiders | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue and net income | $4.64 billion revenue, up 2.67% year over year, and a $34.09 million GAAP net loss, with GAAP EPS of -$0.25 | StockAnalysis.com financials and Q4 FY2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 earnings quality | $143.3 million non-GAAP net income, $1.03 non-GAAP diluted EPS, and $1.55 billion adjusted EBITDA | Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and liquidity | $1.747 billion cash and $6.585 billion gross debt at the end of fiscal 2026, with net debt near $4.8 billion and net leverage of 3.1x; StockAnalysis.com balance sheet data shows total debt near $6.879 billion under a broader classification | Q4 FY2026 earnings call and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $597.11 million fiscal 2026 free cash flow including the one-time Ligado lump sum payment, or about $177 million excluding it, with five consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow | Q4 FY2026 earnings call and StockAnalysis.com cash flow data | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2027 company outlook | Mid-single-digit revenue growth with communication services up low single digits and DAT up mid-teens, adjusted EBITDA flat to up slightly and back-loaded, capex of $950 million to $1 billion, and about $180 million of free cash flow | Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2027 revenue estimate near $4.86 billion with adjusted EPS near $0.30, and FY2028 revenue near $5.08 billion with adjusted EPS near $0.40, reflecting the removal of IP settlement income and the Navarino divestiture | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Backlog and awards | Record backlog of about $4.1 billion, up 15% year over year, with Q4 FY2026 awards near $1.3 billion, up 9%, and DAT backlog up 23% year over year | Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 segment results | Communication Services revenue of $810 million, down 2%, with aviation up 11% and about 4,450 commercial aircraft in service, and DAT revenue of $361 million, up 12%, with encryption product revenue up 24% and space and mission systems up 16% | Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Fixed and maritime trends | Fixed services revenue down 24% with about 130,000 subscribers and ARPU near $113, while maritime revenue declined 1% with about 1,350 NexusWave vessels in service and 1,500 in backlog | Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Defense and space catalyst | Viasat was selected by the U.S. Space Force to deliver a dual-band satellite system under the Protected Tactical SATCOM-Global (PTS-G) program Swarm 1 delivery order, and announced progress on ViaSat-3 Flight 2 and Flight 3 | Viasat investor relations and Q4 FY2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent news catalysts | On July 16, 2026, a U.S. jury ruled that Kioxia owes Viasat $229 million for infringing flash-memory patents, and Viasat demonstrated an integrated automotive satellite voice call capability with BMW Group | Reuters and Viasat press releases | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $94.14 across 11 analysts, low $49 and high $140, with 6 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, and 2 Hold ratings in the July 2026 trend | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Oppenheimer initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $140 target, J.P. Morgan maintained Buy with a $130 target on June 3, Deutsche Bank raised to $97 from $48 on June 1, Needham maintained $90, and B. Riley raised to $106 from $94 in late May | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 5-day average near $74.74, 20-day near $73.29, 50-day near $72.23, 100-day near $64.98, 200-day near $52.23, 14-day RSI near 55.36, 14-day ADX near 11.82, ATR near $5.67, average volume near 2.07 million shares, beta 1.70, and 52-week range $15.27 to $93.03 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart technical snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 12.26 million shares short, about 8.90% of shares outstanding and 9.05% of the float, with about 3.95 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
This VSAT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if fundamentals, technical conditions, valuation multiples, satellite execution, competition, or market conditions change.
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