AST SpaceMobile, Inc. research snapshot
ASTS AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads AST SpaceMobile as an early commercial direct-to-device satellite network that has lost roughly half its value from the 2026 high while still holding a large funded base for constellation deployment. The stock closed at $58.98 on July 31, 2026, down from a 52-week high of $133.86, giving a market capitalization near $22.89 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $58.98 times 388.12 million shares with a 0.01% deviation. Since the previous snapshot, the company priced and completed a $1.0 billion convertible senior notes offering due 2034 on July 20, 2026, later disclosed at $1.15 billion including the exercised notes option, with an initial conversion price near $79.57, a capped call cap price of $149.20, and net proceeds near $983.6 million. BlueBird satellites 11, 12, and 13 are scheduled to launch on August 5, 2026, and the Q2 2026 business update call is set for August 10, 2026. The business remains loss making, with TTM revenue of $84.94 million, TTM net loss of $487.25 million, and negative free cash flow, while analysts hold a consensus of Hold with an average target of $80.48 across 13 analysts, a low of $42.50, and a high of $108. The page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$58.98
Market cap
$22.89 billion
AI score
46 / 100
Rating
High-risk direct-to-device satellite buildout, execution and valuation sensitive
Trend status
Below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AST SpaceMobile is building a low Earth orbit cellular broadband network intended to connect standard smartphones through mobile network operator partners, with government applications as an additional customer path. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Potential advantages include large phased-array satellite technology, roughly 3,900 patent and patent-pending claims, spectrum access initiatives, flight-test evidence, and operator relationships. The moat is not proven until service is repeatable at scale. | Medium |
| Management | Founder CEO Abel Avellan has led the technical vision and partner strategy. The next capital-allocation test is converting the July 2026 debt raise into reliable launches, controlled unit costs, and contracted service revenue rather than deeper dilution or slower deployment. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $70.92 million and TTM revenue reached $84.94 million, but the company reported a $341.94 million net loss attributable to common stockholders in FY2025, a $191.01 million common-stockholder loss in Q1 2026, and negative free cash flow of $1.30 billion over the trailing twelve months. | High |
| Valuation | At $58.98, financial_rigor.py verifies the $22.89 billion market cap, while the price-to-sales ratio is about 269.5x on TTM revenue and price to book is about 8.5x. Traditional earnings multiples are not decision-useful until profitability emerges. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31, 2026 close of $58.98 sits below the 20-day average near $63.79, the 50-day near $81.56, and the 200-day near $82.50, with 14-day RSI near 41.74 and 14-day ADX near 26.86 where the negative directional index exceeds the positive one, pointing to a downtrend that has not yet reversed. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is very high because launch or satellite failures, spectrum and regulatory conditions, manufacturing cost, debt, dilution, partner conversion, competitive direct-to-device networks, and valuation compression can all change the thesis, and the stock has already fallen about 56% from its 2026 high. | High |
| AI confidence | The descriptive record is well supported by public sources, but no model can know whether the constellation reaches planned coverage, operators activate subscribers, or the market continues to pay for future scale. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business has credible optionality but low investment certainty at the stated valuation and current technical setup. This page is a research framework, not a personal buy or sell instruction. | Low |
ASTS AI stock forecast
The ASTS AI stock forecast uses conditional planning ranges rather than a point target. A mechanical three-scenario EPS model was not used because current EPS is negative; instead the ranges are anchored to the $58.98 July 31, 2026 close, the $80.48 average analyst target, the $42.50 low and $108 high targets, and the $36.08 to $133.86 52-week range. The practical variables are the August 5 BlueBird 11, 12, 13 launch, satellite deployment, regulatory and spectrum progress, operator service activation, revenue conversion, cash use, debt, dilution, and market appetite for long-duration growth.
$80 to $110
More likely if the August 5 launch succeeds, the Q2 update on August 10 shows deployment and service progress, operators activate paid services, revenue converts beyond equipment and early service work, and satellite unit costs stay controlled, which would move the stock toward the $80.48 average and $108 high analyst targets.
$55 to $75
More likely if technical progress continues but commercial revenue, regulatory approvals, and coverage scale take longer than optimistic expectations. The market may keep assigning a high option value while demanding milestones before a rerating, keeping the stock rangebound below its moving averages.
$36 to $50
More likely if deployment is delayed, a launch or satellite issue raises costs, service activation or spectrum approvals slip, additional financing dilutes holders, or investors stop paying a premium for pre-profit space connectivity, moving the stock toward the $42.50 low analyst target and the $36.08 52-week low.
ASTS AI technical analysis
ASTS AI technical analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff is bearish to neutral. The stock closed at $58.98 on July 31, 2026, above the 5-day average near $57.06 but below the 20-day average near $63.79, the 50-day near $81.56, the 100-day near $82.59, and the 200-day near $82.50. RSI near 41.74 is weak, 14-day ADX near 26.86 shows a trending move with the negative directional index above the positive one, and 14-day historical volatility near 111% is extreme. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm every level, moving average, volume reading, and catalyst in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $58.98 | Latest public close on July 31, 2026, used for this static page. |
| Near support | $56 to $57 | Planning zone around the 5-day average near $57.06 and the July 31 intraday low. A decisive close below this area weakens the short-term stabilization. |
| Deeper support | $48 to $52 | Higher-volatility pullback zone that aligns with the Scotiabank price target of $50.80 and should be reassessed with live price, volume, and deployment news. |
| Major support | $36 to $42 | The 52-week low of $36.08 and the $42.50 low analyst target form the last major planning zone before the thesis is retested. |
| Near resistance | $63.79 to $66.31 | The 20-day moving average near $63.79 and the July 15 price of $66.31 used to price the convertible notes form the first recovery band. |
| 50-day moving average | $81.56 | Price was well below this average on July 31, 2026, which leaves the intermediate trend unconfirmed. |
| 200-day moving average | $82.50 | Price was below this average in the August snapshot. Recheck the live value before using it as a trading level. |
| Momentum | RSI 41.74, ADX 26.86 | RSI is weak to neutral and ADX shows a trending move with the negative directional index near 26.51 above the positive one near 15.76, so the path of least resistance is still down until price improves. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 14.6 to 15.1 million shares | StockAnalysis.com lists about 14.6 million and Barchart about 15.1 million average shares. Demand should exceed the recent average to validate any recovery because launch, financing, and regulatory news can create sharp gaps. |
| Volatility | Beta 2.68, 14-day historical volatility near 111% | Both readings are far above the market average, so position size and stop conditions require extra care around the August 5 launch and the August 10 earnings call. |
| Invalidation | Close below $56 | A decisive close below the near-support zone invalidates a short-term recovery framework until a new base forms; reclaiming the 20-day average near $63.79 would be the first sign of trend repair. |
ASTS AI trading strategy
The ASTS AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines technical confirmation with satellite deployment, service activation, revenue quality, cash use, debt, share count, spectrum, regulatory, and mobile network operator disclosures, and it is especially important around the August 5 launch and the August 10 Q2 update call.
Watch for ASTS to reclaim the 20-day average near $63.79 and then the $81.56 to $82.50 moving-average band on above-average volume. Pair price strength with evidence of a successful August 5 launch, service activation, or contractual revenue conversion rather than news alone.
Define risk before entry. A failed recovery or decisive close below $56 can serve as a rules-based invalidation condition.
If ASTS reaches the $48 to $52 planning zone without a launch, funding, regulatory, or service-revenue thesis break, wait for stabilization and compare the move with cash, satellite-cost, debt, and share-count updates.
Do not average down solely because the price fell. The setup breaks if support fails alongside weaker deployment evidence, rising capital needs, or additional dilution.
Track satellites manufactured, launched, and operating; the August 5 BlueBird 11, 12, 13 launch result; operator service agreements and activations; spectrum and regulatory approvals; revenue mix; cash; restricted cash; debt; the convertible notes conversion price and capped call; capital expenditure; free cash flow; and fully diluted share count.
Refresh the scenario after earnings, launches, material financing, partner announcements, regulatory decisions, and spectrum updates. Avoid relying on stale technical levels after any high-impact event.
Investment research summary
AST SpaceMobile aims to sell mobile broadband coverage from space through existing mobile network operators. Customers may pay because coverage gaps are expensive to solve with terrestrial towers and the service is designed to work with everyday smartphones.
The potential moat combines phased-array engineering, intellectual property, spectrum rights, satellite flight proof, and mobile operator integration. It only becomes durable if ASTS can deliver reliable coverage, capacity, and economics at scale before competitors close the gap.
The thesis fails if satellite deployment slips, costs exceed plan, regulatory approvals stall, service quality disappoints, partners delay activation, financing dilutes holders, debt weighs on flexibility, or a competing network captures the economics.
Abel Avellan and the team have secured technical validation, partner relationships, and a $1.15 billion convertible notes raise in July 2026. The decisive management test is operational: launch safely, build satellites at the targeted cost, protect liquidity, and turn agreements into recurring revenue.
Direct-to-device connectivity addresses a long-term need for coverage beyond terrestrial networks and has strategic value for consumers, enterprises, and governments. The industry is capital intensive, regulated, and competitive, so demand does not guarantee attractive shareholder returns.
At a verified $22.89 billion market value, ASTS is priced mainly on future network scale rather than present earnings. Margin of safety depends on proving revenue and cash generation before satellite costs, debt, and dilution absorb the upside.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS price | $58.98 close on July 31, 2026, down from a 52-week high of $133.86 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $22.89 billion, verified as $58.98 x 388.12 million shares with 0.01% deviation | StockAnalysis.com and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Share count | 388.12 million total shares: 298.75 million Class A, 11.22 million Class B, and 78.16 million Class C as of the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, with a 51.37% one-year increase | AST SpaceMobile Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $14.735 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL revenue of 14,735,000 | AST SpaceMobile Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $70.92 million, up about 1505% from $4.42 million, cross-validated with StockAnalysis.com | AST SpaceMobile FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net loss | $341.94 million net loss attributable to common stockholders, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL NetIncomeLoss of -341,940,000 | AST SpaceMobile FY2025 Form 10-K and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 common-stockholder loss | $191.012 million, or $0.66 per Class A share, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL NetIncomeLoss for the quarter | AST SpaceMobile Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net loss | TTM revenue of $84.94 million and TTM net loss of $487.25 million, or $1.79 per share | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $3.030 billion at March 31, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL of 3,029,591,000 | AST SpaceMobile Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Total debt | $2.991 billion at March 31, 2026, including $2.963 billion of noncurrent debt matching SEC EDGAR XBRL, before the July 2026 convertible notes | AST SpaceMobile Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| July 2026 convertible notes | $1.0 billion of 1.625% Convertible Senior Notes due 2034 completed July 20, 2026, disclosed at $1.15 billion including the exercised notes option, initial conversion price near $79.57, capped call cap price of $149.20, net proceeds near $983.6 million before the notes option and after $96.9 million for capped calls | AST SpaceMobile Form 8-K dated July 15, 2026 and Business Wire | July 20, 2026 |
| BlueBird launch schedule | BlueBird satellites 11, 12, and 13 scheduled to launch from Cape Canaveral on August 5, 2026, with the Q2 2026 business update call on August 10, 2026 | Business Wire press releases | July 28, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average price target of $80.48 across 13 analysts, low of $42.50 and high of $108, median $80 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | Scotiabank upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform with a target of $50.80 on July 29, 2026; Clear Street holds Buy with a $115 target on July 23; B. Riley upgraded to Buy from Neutral with an $85 target on July 17; Piper Sandler initiated Overweight with a $100 target on July 15; Barclays reiterated Sell and cut the target to $60 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 59.35 million shares short, 15.29% of shares outstanding, 22.31% of float, about 3.08 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day average near $57.06, 20-day near $63.79, 50-day near $81.56, 100-day near $82.59, 200-day near $82.50, 14-day RSI near 41.74, 14-day ADX near 26.86, 14-day historical volatility near 111%, beta 2.68 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
This ASTS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data and assumptions that can be wrong. Verify current filings, live market data, and your own risk limits before making financial decisions.
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