Verisk Analytics, Inc. research snapshot
VRSK AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Verisk Analytics, Inc. as a high-quality insurance data, analytics, underwriting, claims, catastrophe, fraud, and risk workflow platform with recurring client demand and strong cash conversion. At the July 31, 2026 close, VRSK traded near $194.85, and the audited market cap check produced about $25.36 billion using 130.16 million shares outstanding, matching the reported figure within 0.01%. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, 2026, showed revenue of $806 million up 4.3%, or up 5.8% on an organic constant currency basis, with 8.0% underlying subscription growth, adjusted EPS up 5.3% to $1.98, adjusted EBITDA of $464 million at a 57.5% margin, and full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed. Management also entered a $200 million accelerated share repurchase, left $800 million of repurchase authorization remaining, and acquired McKenzie Intelligence Services to expand catastrophe event response. The caution is that GAAP net income fell 9.8% to $229 million on a higher effective tax rate, higher net interest expense, and increased legal fees from ongoing litigation, the adjusted EBITDA margin slipped slightly to 57.5%, and the stock sold off after the report to sit below its 200-day moving average near $199.20. The VRSK AI stock forecast starts from about 30.0x TTM GAAP EPS and 23.9x forward earnings, so upside depends on growth staying near subscription-level rates, margin durability, debt discipline, and multiple support.
Current price
$194.85
Market cap
$25.36 billion verified market cap
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality insurance data and analytics franchise with mixed GAAP trend and a valuation reset after the post-earnings selloff
Trend status
Below the 200-day moving average after the Q2 2026 report, above the 50-day and 100-day averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Verisk sells proprietary data, analytics, software, predictive models, catastrophe tools, fraud analytics, underwriting data, claims workflows, and risk decision support to the global insurance industry. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from insurance-specific datasets, embedded customer workflows, regulatory and actuarial know-how, switching costs, scale, long customer relationships, and data products that become more useful as they are used across insurance decisions. | High |
| Management | CEO Lee M. Shavel delivered Q2 2026 organic constant currency revenue growth of 5.8%, 8.0% underlying subscription growth, a 57.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, reaffirmed FY2026 guidance, a $200 million ASR, and the McKenzie Intelligence Services acquisition. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 4.3% to $806 million, up 5.8% on an OCC basis, adjusted EPS rose 5.3% to $1.98, adjusted EBITDA rose 4.2% to $464 million, and free cash flow rose 57.9% to $298 million, but GAAP net income fell 9.8% on tax, interest, and legal fee headwinds. | High |
| Valuation | At $194.85, audited math shows about 30.0x TTM GAAP EPS, 23.9x forward earnings, 20.5x TTM free cash flow, 8.1x sales per share, and a 1.03% dividend yield. The valuation is more reasonable than at the prior peak but still depends on premium-quality execution. | High |
| Technical trend | Daily technicals are mixed: VRSK closed below its 200-day moving average near $199.20 and its 20-day near $196.58, but above the 50-day near $185.45 and the 100-day near $183.70, with RSI near 50.5 after the post-earnings selloff. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are slower insurance carrier spending, product substitution, pricing pushback, AI-native tools pressuring workflow value, catastrophe model credibility issues, higher tax rates and interest expense, ongoing litigation legal fees, leverage from buybacks, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because filings, company releases, and quote services are fresh. Return confidence is lower because future growth, customer budgets, AI adoption, tax rates, legal costs, rates, and market multiples are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | VRSK looks like a durable insurance analytics compounder, but the current price still requires revenue growth to rebuild and margins to remain near best-in-class levels while the market digests the Q2 2026 GAAP decline and the post-earnings selloff. | Medium |
VRSK AI stock forecast
The VRSK AI stock forecast uses the $194.85 price reference, TTM GAAP EPS of $6.50, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $124, a base value near $194, and a bullish value near $253 before dividends, using EPS growth of 2%, 6%, and 9% and exit multiples of 18x, 25x, and 30x over three years. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$245 to $265
More likely if organic constant currency revenue growth stays near 6%, underlying subscription growth holds near 8%, adjusted EBITDA margin stays around the high-50s, AI-enabled insurance workflow products gain adoption, the McKenzie Intelligence acquisition extends the catastrophe franchise, buybacks reduce shares without straining the balance sheet, and the market accepts a mid-to-high 20s earnings multiple.
$185 to $205
More likely if EPS compounds around mid-single to high single digits, Underwriting and Claims revenue grow steadily, free cash flow remains near the $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion range, debt costs and the effective tax rate stay manageable, legal fee pressure stays contained, and the stock holds a low-to-mid 20s earnings multiple.
$115 to $135
More likely if insurance customers slow discretionary spend, price increases weaken, AI-native tools pressure workflow value, catastrophe model trust is challenged, the tax rate and interest expense stay elevated, legal fees from ongoing litigation persist, leverage limits buybacks, or investors compress VRSK toward a lower data services multiple.
VRSK AI technical analysis
VRSK AI technical analysis uses market data available at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis.com showed VRSK closing at $194.85 on July 31, 2026, down 2.75%, after the July 29 Q2 2026 report, with the stock moving below its 200-day moving average near $199.20. The 50-day moving average sits near $185.45, the 100-day near $183.70, the 20-day near $196.58, RSI near 50.54, and 14-day ADX near 30.84, with a 52-week range of $155.94 to $281.82. Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported these levels.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $194.85 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; after-hours near $195.16. |
| Immediate resistance | $196 to $200 | The 20-day moving average near $196.58 and the 200-day moving average near $199.20 sit overhead as the first supply zone. |
| Near support | $185 to $187 | The 50-day moving average near $185.45 marks the first meaningful support below the current price. |
| Next support | $180 to $184 | The 100-day moving average near $183.70 forms the secondary support band. |
| Deeper support | $155 to $170 | This zone spans the lower part of the 52-week range and the 52-week low of $155.94. |
| Major resistance | $235 to $250 | The average analyst target is $237.12 and recent raised targets include J.P. Morgan at $250 and Baird at $247, so this zone marks the recovery supply area. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50.5, ADX near 30.8 | 14-day RSI near 50.54 is neutral and 14-day ADX near 30.84 reflects a recent trending move after earnings. |
| Volume | About 1.95 million shares versus a 20-day average of 1.84 million | The July 31 session volume was slightly above average, useful for judging follow-through on any reclaim of the 200-day moving average. |
| Volatility | Elevated near earnings | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 46.1%, so position sizing should account for larger swings around reports and guidance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $185 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $185.45 would weaken the recovery; a reclaim of the 200-day near $199 would strengthen the trend-following setup. |
VRSK AI trading strategy
The VRSK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price trend, insurance analytics demand, Underwriting and Claims growth, subscription growth, margin quality, free cash flow, leverage, buybacks, tax rates, legal costs, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for VRSK to reclaim the 200-day moving average near $199 and push through the $200 to $205 area with volume while Q3 results confirm organic constant currency growth near 6%, subscription growth near 8%, adjusted EBITDA margin stability, and reaffirmed full-year guidance.
A close below the 50-day moving average near $185, weaker Q3 commentary, or evidence that insurance workflow demand, subscription growth, or price realization is deteriorating should reduce trend-following confidence.
If VRSK pulls back toward the 50-day moving average near $185 or the 100-day near $183 without a thesis break, compare the entry price with the base scenario, free cash flow, debt, buyback pace, tax rate, and organic growth trajectory.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the cause is slower insurance carrier spending, pressure on pricing, model credibility issues, AI substitution in core workflows, or higher interest and legal costs.
Track Underwriting revenue, Claims revenue, organic constant currency growth, subscription growth, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, debt, share repurchases, AI product adoption, dividend policy, customer retention, the effective tax rate, interest expense, legal fees, and analyst EPS revisions.
Position sizing should reflect that VRSK is a high-margin data franchise with meaningful downside if GAAP earnings quality, growth expectations, or the premium multiple reset again.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Verisk because insurers need trusted data, actuarial tools, catastrophe models, fraud analytics, claims workflows, underwriting inputs, and decision support to price risk and manage losses, which showed up as 8.0% underlying subscription growth in Q2 2026.
The moat is built from proprietary insurance datasets, embedded workflow software, model history, customer trust, actuarial domain expertise, regulatory familiarity, scale, and switching costs inside insurer operations.
The thesis fails if insurers cut discretionary analytics spend, competitors or AI-native tools reduce workflow value, regulatory changes weaken data use, model credibility suffers, GAAP earnings are eroded by tax, interest, and legal costs, or leverage and buybacks reduce financial flexibility.
Lee M. Shavel leads a focused insurance analytics company after Verisk narrowed its portfolio. Q2 2026 delivered 5.8% OCC growth, 8% subscription growth, a 57.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, reaffirmed guidance, a $200 million ASR, and the McKenzie Intelligence acquisition.
Long-term demand is supported by insurance digitization, climate and catastrophe risk, fraud prevention, underwriting automation, property data, claims efficiency, and the need for trusted data in AI-enabled insurance workflows.
At $194.85, VRSK offers better entry math than at the prior peak near $281 but limited deep-value cushion. Margin of safety depends on sustained free cash flow, growth staying near subscription-level rates, margin resilience, and avoiding another multiple reset.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VRSK price reference | $194.85 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 2.75%, with an intraday range of $193.41 to $199.46; after-hours near $195.16 | StockAnalysis.com VRSK quote and Robinhood VRSK quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $25.36 billion calculated from $194.85 x 130.16 million shares, matching the reported market cap within 0.01% | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis VRSK market cap | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 130.16 million shares, down 3.58% year over year and 3.23% quarter over quarter after 2026 accelerated share repurchases | StockAnalysis VRSK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and segment growth | $806 million revenue, up 4.3% reported and 5.8% on an organic constant currency basis; Underwriting $569 million up 5.6% OCC and Claims $237 million up 6.1% OCC | Verisk Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP results | Net income $229 million, down 9.8%, and diluted EPS $1.75, down 3.3%, on a higher effective tax rate of 24.6%, higher net interest expense, and increased legal fees from ongoing litigation | Verisk Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted EPS $1.98, up 5.3%, adjusted EBITDA $464 million, up 4.2% and 7.4% on an OCC basis, adjusted EBITDA margin 57.5%, and 8.0% underlying subscription growth | Verisk Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| First half 2026 results | Revenue $1,589 million up 4.1% and 5.2% on an OCC basis, net income $463 million down 4.7%, adjusted EBITDA $901 million at a 56.7% margin, diluted adjusted EPS $3.80 up 5.0%, and free cash flow $624 million up 7.7% | Verisk Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance reaffirmed | Revenue $3.190 billion to $3.240 billion, adjusted EBITDA $1.790 billion to $1.830 billion at a 56.0% to 56.5% margin, diluted adjusted EPS $7.45 to $7.75, capital expenditures $260 million to $280 million, and dividend of $2.00 per share | Verisk Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and free cash flow | Cash of $551.4 million, short-term debt of $257.7 million, long-term debt of $4,215.8 million as of June 30, 2026, and $1.24 billion TTM free cash flow per StockAnalysis | Verisk Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis VRSK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue $3.14 billion, net income $885.5 million, EPS $6.50, free cash flow $1.24 billion, and free cash flow per share $9.50 | StockAnalysis VRSK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM valuation metrics | 29.98x PE, 20.51x price to free cash flow, 8.08x sales per share, and 1.03% dividend yield from audited inputs | Pineify financial_rigor.py valuation check | August 2, 2026 |
| Forward valuation and efficiency | 23.85x forward PE, 8.09x PS, EV/EBITDA 17.29, ROIC 31.68%, ROA 18.96%, and debt to EBITDA 2.71 | StockAnalysis VRSK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital returns | Q2 2026 $200 million ASR with initial delivery of 949,190 shares at $179.10, $800 million remaining authorization as of June 30, 2026, and H1 2026 funded repurchases of $1.9 billion at an average near $186.32 per share | Verisk Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 20-day moving average near $196.58, 50-day near $185.45, 100-day near $183.70, 200-day near $199.20, 14-day RSI near 50.54, and 14-day ADX near 30.84 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $237.12 across 19 analysts, low $185 and high $275, median $235, with July 30, 2026 updates from J.P. Morgan at $250, Baird at $247, UBS at $235, Evercore ISI at $223, and Morgan Stanley at $235 | StockAnalysis.com VRSK forecast and analyst ratings | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 6.31 million shares short, 4.85% of shares outstanding, with 2.01 days to cover | StockAnalysis VRSK statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Business mix | Q2 2026 revenue split: $569 million Underwriting and $237 million Claims, both within Verisk insurance analytics | Verisk Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Portfolio action | Verisk acquired McKenzie Intelligence Services on July 29, 2026, a geospatial intelligence and event response company specializing in global real-time catastrophe and conflict event analysis, with no terms disclosed | Verisk press release and StockAnalysis.com news | July 29, 2026 |
| Management and company profile | Lee M. Shavel is CEO and Elizabeth Mann is CFO; Verisk serves insurance clients with data analytics, predictive analytics, catastrophe, underwriting, claims, fraud, and risk decision solutions | Robinhood VRSK profile and Verisk Q2 2026 release | August 2, 2026 |
This VRSK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data at the stated cutoff date and can be wrong. Always verify current filings, market data, valuation, and risk factors before making financial decisions.
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