United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. research snapshot
USLM AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads United States Lime & Minerals as a zero-debt, high-margin lime producer whose Q2 2026 results confirmed a demand recovery led by construction and steel customers. The stock closed at $111.74 on August 3, 2026, up 1.44 or 1.31% from the $110.30 July 31 close, carrying a market capitalization near $3.20 billion, verified as the $111.74 price times 28.62 million shares outstanding with a deviation of 0.06%. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, 2026, showed revenue of $99.1 million, up 8.3% year over year, gross profit of $46.7 million, up 11.6%, and net income of $34.5 million or $1.20 per diluted share, up 11.9% from $1.07, with management citing continued support for construction demand from data center projects and a new kiln at the Texas facility coming online this summer. First half 2026 revenue grew 2.3% to $187.0 million with net income of $65.1 million. The stock remains about 21% below its 52-week high of $141.44, sits above the 50-day moving average near $107.35 but below the 200-day moving average near $118.29, and carries about $399.4 million of net cash against minimal debt. The main tension is valuation, with the stock near 23.9x trailing EPS and 8.6x sales for a cyclical small-cap producer. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$111.74 at the August 3, 2026 market close, up 1.44 or 1.31% from the $110.30 July 31 close, after opening at $112.33 and trading in a session range of $110.94 to $113.71 on volume near 166,000 shares
Market cap
$3.20 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $111.74 price times 28.62 million shares outstanding with a verified deviation of 0.06%
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Zero-debt lime producer with confirmed Q2 2026 demand recovery, balanced by cyclical exposure and an elevated valuation
Trend status
Recovering from the $96.27 July 8, 2026 low; above the 50-day moving average near $107.35 but below the 200-day moving average near $118.29
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | USLM is a vertically integrated lime and limestone producer serving construction, steel, environmental, agriculture, and oil and gas markets. Q2 2026 revenue rose 8.3% to $99.1 million with net income of $34.5 million, confirming the demand recovery led by construction and steel customers. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moat comes from finite limestone reserves, permitting barriers, high capital costs for new lime kilns, and switching costs in steel and water treatment. The new Texas kiln coming online this summer adds capacity and cost advantages. However, the moat is local and scale is small relative to construction material peers. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Timothy Byrne has led the company through the 5:1 stock split and a period of strong margin expansion, and management now cites data center driven construction demand and the new Texas kiln ramp. Capital allocation has prioritized operational efficiency and organic capacity. Low insider ownership (1.05%) remains a concern for a small-cap firm. | Low-medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue grew to $372.7 million from $317.7 million with net income of $134.3 million and a 36.0% net margin. Q2 2026 revenue rose 8.3% to $99.1 million and net income rose 11.9% to $34.5 million, though first half 2026 revenue growth was a more modest 2.3% with roof shingle demand down. | High |
| Valuation | At $111.74, USLM trades at 23.93x trailing EPS of $4.67, 20.35x forward earnings, 8.60x sales, and 4.54x book value. The P/E is moderate but P/S and P/B are elevated for a cyclical commodity producer, and the valuation assumes the Q2 2026 demand recovery persists. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | USLM is recovering from its July 8, 2026 low of $96.27, closing at $111.74 on August 3, 2026. The stock is above the 50-day moving average near $107.35 but below the 200-day moving average near $118.29, with 14-day RSI near 56.66, indicating a stabilizing but not yet confirmed uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include cyclical demand in construction and steel, declining roof shingle demand, fuel and transportation cost pressure, limited analyst coverage and institutional ownership, low insider ownership, elevated valuation, and concentrated end-market exposure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited financials, medium for forward scenarios and technical levels given low liquidity and limited coverage. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
USLM AI stock forecast
The USLM AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $111.74 quote and trailing EPS of $4.67. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $70, a base area near $114, and a bullish area near $155 before dividends.
$150 to $160
More likely if construction and steel demand keep recovering, data center projects sustain construction demand, the new Texas kiln boosts capacity and margins as it comes online this summer, USLM maintains 35%+ net margins, and the market assigns a higher multiple closer to 25x forward earnings.
$110 to $120
More likely if USLM compounds EPS in the mid single digits, maintains mid-30% net margins, the new kiln operates at planned utilization, and the stock trades near 20x forward earnings.
$65 to $75
More likely if construction and energy demand stalls or turns down, roof shingle demand keeps falling, lime prices decline, revenue growth reverts to the sluggish first half pace, or the market reprices the stock closer to 15x normalized trough earnings.
USLM AI technical analysis
USLM AI technical analysis shows a stock in a recovery phase as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock bottomed at $96.27 on July 8, 2026 and closed at $111.74 on August 3, 2026, up about 16% from that low but still about 21% below the 52-week high of $141.44. Price sits above the 50-day moving average near $107.35 and below the 200-day moving average near $118.29, with 14-day RSI near 56.66.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $111.74 | Closed at $111.74 on August 3, 2026, up 1.44 or 1.31% from the $110.30 July 31 close, within a session range of $110.94 to $113.71. |
| Near support | $107 to $108 | The 50-day moving average near $107.35 is the immediate support level. A close back below this level would signal the recovery is losing momentum. |
| Deeper support | $101 to $105 | If $107 fails, the next support zone is $101 to $105, the area where the stock consolidated in mid July 2026 before the recovery. |
| 52-week low | $96.27 | The 52-week low set July 8, 2026 is the major downside reference. A break below it would open a new lower range. |
| Near resistance | $113 to $115 | The late July highs near $113.74 to $115.61 form the immediate resistance zone. A close above $115 would strengthen the recovery. |
| Major resistance | $118 to $119 | The 200-day moving average near $118.29 and the $119.06 July 28 intraday high are the next major barriers. Reclaiming this zone would confirm a trend change. |
| Momentum | Neutral to constructive | Price is above the 50-day moving average with 14-day RSI near 56.66, indicating a stabilizing recovery, but still below the 200-day moving average. |
| Volume | Low average volume | Average volume near 166,000 to 185,000 shares over 20 days, making price moves less reliable for technical signals. |
| Volatility | 21% below 52-week high | At $111.74, the stock is roughly 21% below the $141.44 high and about 16% above the $96.27 low, with a beta of 0.72. |
| Invalidation | Close below $96.27 | A decisive close below the 52-week low at $96.27 would invalidate the recovery thesis and suggest a return to the mid $80s area. |
USLM AI trading strategy
The USLM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a small-cap lime producer in the early stage of a recovery. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for USLM to hold above the $107 to $108 support zone and then reclaim the 200-day moving average near $118.29 on above-average volume. A sustained move above $119 would confirm a trend change from the July 8, 2026 low of $96.27. The next earnings report near late October 2026 and the Texas kiln ramp are the key catalysts.
A close below $107 or a close below the 52-week low at $96.27 should invalidate the recovery setup. Position sizing must account for low liquidity.
If USLM pulls back toward the $101 to $107 zone without a deterioration in fundamentals, consider monitoring for a higher low or positive divergence in RSI. The zero-debt balance sheet with about $399.4 million in net cash provides a floor not available to most small-cap cyclical stocks.
Do not assume the July low holds without confirmation. Low coverage and thin volume mean the stock can gap on earnings or end-market news.
Track quarterly revenue trends, construction and steel demand, data center project support, roof shingle demand, lime pricing, new Texas kiln progress, gross margin sustainability, and cash and debt levels. The Q3 2026 earnings report (estimated late October 2026) is the next validation point.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth stalls again, margins compress below 30%, or management signals deteriorating end-market conditions.
Investment research summary
USLM converts limestone reserves into lime products that steel mills, construction contractors, water treatment facilities, farmers, and energy companies need for their core processes. Customers pay because lime is often chemically essential and local sourcing matters for transportation costs.
The moat is geographic and capital-based. Limestone reserves are finite, kilns cost tens of millions of dollars to build and take years to permit, and replacement logistics for heavy, low-value materials work against distant competitors. The new Texas kiln reinforces this advantage, but product differentiation is limited and customers can shift volumes among nearby suppliers.
The thesis fails if construction, steel, or energy demand enters a sustained downturn, if lime prices fall, if the new Texas kiln underperforms or is delayed, or if a single end-market shock like the roof shingle decline spreads. The zero-debt balance sheet cushions risk but cannot eliminate cyclical revenue decline.
Management should be judged by operational execution, the new Texas kiln ramp, margin discipline as revenue cycles, capital allocation given the large cash position, and whether insider ownership increases over time. The Q2 2026 report shows management execution is improving demand conditions into results.
Lime demand is tied to construction, steel production, environmental regulation, and agricultural cycles. Data center construction is now cited by management as an incremental construction demand driver. Long-term infrastructure and environmental trends support demand, but the business remains economically sensitive.
At 23.93x trailing EPS, 8.60x sales, and 4.54x book value, the stock prices in above-average profitability and a demand recovery. The net cash position of about $399.4 million provides meaningful downside protection, but the recovery is not yet confirmed by the 200-day moving average, so the margin of safety depends on demand persisting.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| USLM price | $111.74 at the August 3, 2026 close, up 1.44 or 1.31%, session range $110.94 to $113.71 | StockAnalysis.com quote and history data | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.20 billion, verified as $111.74 x 28.62 million shares with a 0.06% deviation via financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis.com / financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $376.92 million, computed as Q3 2025 plus Q4 2025 plus Q1 2026 plus Q2 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quarterly financials | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $372.7 million revenue, $134.3 million net income, $4.67 EPS | StockAnalysis.com annual financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $99.1 million revenue, $46.7 million gross profit, $34.5 million net income, $1.20 diluted EPS | Q2 2026 earnings release, GlobeNewswire | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $402.64 million cash, $3.25 million total debt, $399.40 million net cash as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet / Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 28.62 million shares, float 10.67 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $96.27 to $141.44 | StockAnalysis.com quote and history data | August 4, 2026 |
| Trailing P/E and forward P/E | 23.93x trailing, 20.35x forward | StockAnalysis.com statistics, verified via financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Moving averages and RSI | 50-day MA $107.35, 200-day MA $118.29, 14-day RSI 56.66 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell USLM stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
