USA Compression Partners, LP research snapshot
USAC AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads USA Compression Partners as a high-yield natural gas compression MLP with improving distribution coverage, record pricing, and a deleveraging trajectory, but also a premium valuation, high leverage, and a stock that has pulled back below its key moving averages. USAC closed at $25.70 on August 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM EDT, down 0.46 or 1.76% from the $26.16 July 31 close, within a session range reported near $25.28 to $25.72 after opening at $25.67, carrying a market capitalization near $3.72 billion, matching the $25.70 price times 144.97 million shares outstanding, with StockAnalysis.com reporting $3.72 billion and enterprise value near $6.67 billion. The J-W Power acquisition closed January 12, 2026 and lifted the fleet to roughly 4.93 million horsepower, Q1 2026 delivered revenue of $331.28 million, GAAP net income of $38.34 million, record pricing of $22.73 per horsepower, average active horsepower of 4.438 million, and average utilization of 91.9%, and management kept full-year 2026 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $770 million to $800 million and distributable cash flow of $480 million to $510 million. Distribution coverage improved to about 1.72x in Q1 2026 and leverage reached 3.74x against a 3.75x target, while the $2.10 annualized distribution yields roughly 8.2% at the current price. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for release on August 4, 2026 before market open, which is the data cutoff date for this page. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$25.70 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT close, down 0.46 or 1.76% from the $26.16 July 31 close, within a session range reported near $25.28 to $25.72 after opening at $25.67, with the daily history table showing an August 3 reference close of $25.66 down 1.91%
Market cap
$3.72 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 reading, matching the $25.70 price times 144.97 million shares outstanding, with enterprise value near $6.67 billion
AI score
57 / 100
Rating
High-yield MLP with improving coverage, record pricing, and deleveraging, but premium valuation and high leverage
Trend status
Pulled back about 16% from the May 2026 high near $30.55 to trade below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages ahead of the August 4, 2026 Q2 report
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | USAC provides natural gas compression services under long-term contracts with oil and gas producers, processors, gatherers, and transporters. Recurring revenue comes from fleet utilization and horsepower, with the J-W Power acquisition closed January 12, 2026 lifting total fleet horsepower to roughly 4.93 million and record pricing to $22.73 per horsepower in Q1 2026. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moat comes from large-horsepower fleet scale near 4.93 million HP, customer switching costs from site-specific compression infrastructure, service relationships, maintenance expertise, and now J-W manufacturing capacity that supports new compression and third-party sales. But contracts are finite and competitors such as Archrock and Kodiak can add fleet capacity. | Medium |
| Management | Management executed the J-W Power acquisition, contracted over 90% of roughly 110,000 new horsepower expected for 2026, raised pricing to record levels, improved distribution coverage to about 1.72x, and reached leverage of 3.74x against a 3.75x target while confirming the $2.10 annualized distribution. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue has grown steadily with fleet expansion and utilization. Q1 2026 revenue reached $331.28 million with GAAP net income of $38.34 million and EPS of $0.27, TTM revenue is $1.08 billion up 12.2%, and TTM free cash flow of $302.57 million plus Q1 distribution coverage of about 1.72x support the $2.10 annual distribution, while total debt near $2.99 billion against equity book value of $316.67 million highlights leverage risk. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $25.70, USAC traded at about 25.9x TTM earnings, 19.7x forward earnings, 11.98x book value, 10.57x EV/EBITDA, and a roughly 8.2% distribution yield. The premium P/E partly reflects MLP tax structure, distribution demand from yield-oriented investors, and expected EPS growth to $1.32 in 2026 and $1.79 in 2027. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Technical snapshot shows USAC pulling back about 16% from the May 2026 high near $30.55 to a $25.70 close on August 3, 2026, now trading below its 20-day moving average near $26.42, its 50-day near $26.85, and its 200-day near $26.00, with 14-day RSI near 43.6 and support near the June 2026 swing low of $24.81. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include high financial leverage (9.45x debt/equity and interest coverage near 1.74x), natural gas price volatility, counterparty credit risk, distribution cut risk if coverage deteriorates, equity dilution through the April 2026 common unit offering, J-W integration and manufacturing execution, lubricant cost inflation if oil prices stay high, and K-1 MLP tax complexity. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q1 2026 earnings call, and the Q4 2025 earnings call. Medium for forward scenarios and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Low-medium |
USAC AI stock forecast
The USAC AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $25.70 August 3, 2026 quote and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $1.32. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $14.40, a base area near $25.00, and a bullish area near $34.70 before distributions, using adjusted EPS growth of 3%, 12%, and 18% and exit multiples of 10x, 13.5x, and 16x over three years. All scenarios depend on natural gas macro, fleet utilization, J-W integration, leverage trends, and MLP valuation multiples.
$33 to $36
More likely if natural gas production and compression demand stay strong, fleet utilization holds above 92%, J-W synergies of $10 million to $20 million arrive by 2027, USAC deleverages toward 3.75x and beyond, distribution coverage stays above 1.6x, and the market allows a 16x forward multiple on EPS growth toward $1.79 in 2027.
$23 to $27
More likely if USAC compounds adjusted EPS around 12% annually, maintains the $2.10 distribution and coverage near 1.6x, keeps the 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $770 million to $800 million on track, but valuation stays capped near 13.5x forward earnings due to leverage concerns and MLP structure tax complexity.
$13 to $16
More likely if natural gas prices decline, compression demand softens, counterparty defaults rise, oil-driven lubricant costs pressure margins, distribution coverage falls toward 1.0x, the partnership issues units at dilutive prices, or the market re-rates USAC closer to 10x earnings amid energy sector weakness.
USAC AI technical analysis
USAC AI technical analysis shows a pullback from the May 2026 52-week high of $30.55 to a $25.70 close on August 3, 2026, now below the 20-day moving average near $26.42, the 50-day near $26.85, and the 200-day near $26.00, with 14-day RSI near 43.6 on StockAnalysis.com statistics as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock is positioned at roughly 44% of its 52-week range, with the June 2026 swing low near $24.81 as the first material support and the 52-week low at $21.85 as the deeper reference.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $25.70 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT close, down 0.46 or 1.76% from the $26.16 July 31 close within a session range reported near $25.28 to $25.72 after opening at $25.67; the daily history table shows an August 3 reference close of $25.66 down 1.91%, and the implied market cap near $3.72 billion matches the price times 144.97 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $25.85 | Computed as the simple average of the five closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, just above the current price, which signals short-term momentum is turning neutral after the pullback. |
| Near support | $24.81 to $25.66 | The June 24, 2026 swing low near $24.81 and the August 3 daily low near $25.28 with the reference close near $25.66 form the first support zone below price. |
| Deeper support | $21.85 | The 52-week low at $21.85 is the deeper pullback reference if the June swing low fails, per the StockAnalysis.com 52-week range. |
| Near resistance | $26.42 to $26.85 | The 20-day moving average computed near $26.42 from the StockAnalysis.com daily price history and the 50-day moving average near $26.85 on StockAnalysis.com statistics form the first resistance cluster above price. |
| Upper resistance | $27.90 to $28.00 | The July rebound highs and the June 4 close near $28.62 mark an intermediate resistance zone before the 52-week high. |
| Long-term resistance | $30.55 | The May 2026 52-week high near $30.55 is the upper reference point for any sustained recovery. |
| Momentum | RSI near 43.6 | The 14-day RSI was near 43.6 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, below the neutral 50 line and signaling a neutral-to-bearish short-term bias. |
| Volume | Average volume near 204,000 shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 204,189 shares on August 3, 2026, below typical midstream MLP liquidity; the August 3 session printed roughly 290,656 shares in the daily price history. |
| Volatility | About 16% below the 52-week high | USAC has a low 60-month beta of 0.18 per StockAnalysis.com statistics, indicating less correlation with broad market moves, but MLP-specific gaps on natural gas price moves and distribution news remain possible. |
| Invalidation | Close below $24.81 | A decisive close below the June 2026 swing low near $24.81 would signal further downside toward the 52-week low at $21.85 and invalidate the near-term support read. |
USAC AI trading strategy
The USAC AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a high-yield midstream MLP after its pullback below the 200-day moving average. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, distribution coverage, K-1 tax considerations, and a defined invalidation level, especially with Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 4, 2026 before market open.
Watch for USAC to reclaim and hold the 20-day moving average near $26.42 and then the 50-day near $26.85, supported by the August 4 Q2 2026 report, stable distribution announcements, and consistent coverage ratios. A sustained move back above $26.85 would suggest distribution yield demand returning to the stock.
A close below $24.81 or a distribution cut announcement should invalidate the yield-support setup for near-term monitoring.
If USAC pulls back toward the $24.81 to $25.28 zone without a negative operating update, compare with natural gas macro, fleet utilization, leverage, and Q2 results before assuming the support level is durable.
Do not accumulate without a maximum loss rule because MLP stocks can gap on natural gas price moves, interest rate surprises, or distribution news.
Track fleet utilization rates, average revenue per horsepower, distributable cash flow coverage, total leverage, interest coverage, J-W integration and manufacturing execution, and counterparty credit quality rather than just headline EPS.
Reduce confidence if distribution coverage falls below 1.0x, debt/EBITDA trends back above 4.5x, or the partnership issues units at dilutive prices to fund capex.
Investment research summary
USA Compression helps natural gas producers move gas from wellheads to pipelines and processing through large-horsepower compression equipment. Customers pay because outsourcing compression avoids large capital outlay and brings maintenance expertise, uptime guarantees, and regulatory compliance, with the J-W Power acquisition adding manufacturing and about 1 million horsepower in January 2026.
The moat comes from fleet scale near 4.93 million HP, site-specific customer relationships, maintenance know-how, long-term contracts, and now J-W manufacturing optionality. However, large competitors like Archrock and Kodiak can add compression capacity, and equipment standardization limits technological differentiation.
The thesis fails if natural gas production declines reduce compression demand, counterparties default, interest costs overwhelm cash flows, the distribution must be cut, equity dilution damages unit value, J-W integration underperforms, or the MLP loses access to capital markets at reasonable rates.
Management should be judged by fleet utilization trends, record pricing per horsepower, distribution coverage consistency, capital allocation discipline between growth capex and deleveraging toward 3.75x, J-W synergy delivery, and the potential Texas redomiciliation announced with Energy Transfer, Sunoco, and SunocoCorp on July 2, 2026.
USAC sits inside long-duration demand for natural gas as a transition fuel, baseload power source, LNG feed gas, and data center power fuel. Compression services benefit from growing natural gas production, export terminal demand, and pipeline buildout, while extended equipment lead times near 150 weeks and record pricing support the business, offset by commodity price cycles and energy transition policy risk.
At roughly 19.7x forward earnings and 10.57x EV/EBITDA with a distribution yield near 8.2%, USAC trades at a premium to historical MLP averages partly due to distribution yield demand and expected EPS growth to $1.32 in 2026 and $1.79 in 2027. Margin of safety improves if price revisits the $24 to $25 support zone while coverage and deleveraging metrics stay intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| USAC price | $25.70 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT close, down 0.46 or 1.76% from the $26.16 July 31 close, within a session range reported near $25.28 to $25.72, after opening at $25.67, with the daily history table showing an August 3 reference close of $25.66 down 1.91% | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | Near $3.72 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3 reading and matching the $25.70 price times 144.97 million shares outstanding, with enterprise value near $6.67 billion | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics, financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 144.97 million shares outstanding, up 7.90% year over year and 15.27% quarter over quarter after the J-W consideration units and the April 2026 common unit offering | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.08 billion over the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2026, up 12.18%, with FY2025 revenue of $998.10 million up 5.01% | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $125.25 million over the trailing twelve months, up 33.8%, with FY2025 net income of $103.03 million up 25.61% | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $0.98 per the statistics and quote pages, $0.97 per the financials page, a rounding difference | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of $331.28 million, GAAP net income of $38.34 million, EPS of $0.27, operating income of $91.41 million, and operating cash flow of $86.1 million, with pricing at a record $22.73 per horsepower, average active horsepower of 4.438 million, total fleet near 4.931 million horsepower, and average utilization of 91.9% | StockAnalysis.com quarterly financials and USAC Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 results and 2026 guidance | FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA of $613.8 million, distributable cash flow of $385.7 million, and average utilization above 94%, with 2026 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $770 million to $800 million, distributable cash flow of $480 million to $510 million, maintenance capex of $60 million to $70 million, and expansion capex of $230 million to $250 million | USAC Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 earnings calls | August 4, 2026 |
| J-W Power acquisition | Closed January 12, 2026, adding roughly 1.037 million horsepower, about 200,000 idle horsepower of which about 50,000 was expected to be readily deployable, manufacturing capacity of 100,000 to 125,000 horsepower, and an expected $10 million to $20 million of annual run-rate synergies by the end of 2027 | USAC Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 earnings calls | August 4, 2026 |
| Distribution and yield | $0.525 per quarter or $2.10 annualized per unit, roughly 8.2% yield at the $25.70 price, with the second-quarter 2026 distribution announced July 16, 2026 and an ex-dividend date of July 27, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Business Wire Q2 2026 distribution release | August 4, 2026 |
| Distribution coverage and leverage | Distribution coverage improved to about 1.72x in Q1 2026 from a normalized 1.55x in Q4 2025, and leverage reached 3.74x against the 3.75x near-term target, with management expecting leverage to tick higher in Q2 as new horsepower is delivered and trend lower by year-end | USAC Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $14.52 million cash as of March 31, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (14522000), and total debt near $2.99 billion, with long-term debt of $2,980.327 million matching SEC EDGAR XBRL LongTermDebtNoncurrent | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL company-concept JSON | August 4, 2026 |
| Equity book value | $316.67 million equity book value as of Q1 2026 per StockAnalysis.com statistics, with book value per share near $2.18; the balance swung from a negative partnership capital balance at the end of 2025 after J-W consideration units and the December 2025 preferred unit conversion | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | Operating cash flow of $425.71 million, capital expenditures of $123.15 million, and free cash flow of $302.57 million over the trailing twelve months, with FCF per share near $2.09 | StockAnalysis.com cash flow and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 25.91x trailing PE, 19.70x forward PE, 3.40x PS, 11.98x PB, 12.18x P/FCF, and 10.57x EV/EBITDA, with forward EPS estimates of $1.32 for 2026 and $1.79 for 2027 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average price target of $29.60 across 5 analysts, low $28 and high $33, with a consensus upside near 15% from the $25.70 price | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 1 Buy, 3 Hold, and 1 Sell out of 5 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | RBC Capital maintained Hold with a $30 target on July 22, 2026, Mizuho raised its target to $29 from $28 on June 12, 2026, Citi raised its target to $28 from $26 on May 13, 2026, Raymond James maintained Buy on May 7, 2026, and J.P. Morgan maintained Sell with a $28 target on April 16, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 2.62 million shares short, 1.81% of shares outstanding, 9.04 days to cover, up from 2.59 million shares the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| Redomiciliation announcement | On July 2, 2026, Energy Transfer, Sunoco LP, SunocoCorp, and USA Compression jointly announced that each will change its state of formation to Texas, a corporate governance change for the MLP structure | Business Wire joint announcement | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day moving average near $26.42 computed from StockAnalysis.com daily price history, 50-day moving average near $26.85 and 200-day near $26.00 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, 14-day RSI near 43.6, 20-day average volume near 204,189 shares, beta 0.18, and 52-week range $21.85 to $30.55 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell USAC stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. MLP investments carry specific tax and structural risks. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, K-1 implications, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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