USA Compression Partners, LP research snapshot
USAC AI stock analysis reads USA Compression Partners as a natural gas compression services MLP with contracted revenue, high fleet utilization, and a 7.93% distribution yield, but with substantial leverage, equity dilution risk, and natural gas price sensitivity still important. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, USAC traded near $26.48 with a verified market capitalization near $3.84 billion. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$26.48
Market cap
$3.84 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
High-yield MLP with steady compression cash flows, heavy debt, and energy cycle sensitivity
Trend status
Trading near middle of 52-week range, pulled back from May 2026 high of $30.55
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | USAC provides natural gas compression services under long-term contracts with oil and gas producers, processors, gatherers, and transporters. Recurring revenue comes from fleet utilization and horsepower, with some treating services for carbon dioxide removal and gas dehydration. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moat comes from large-horsepower fleet scale (3.9 million HP), customer switching costs from site-specific compression infrastructure, service relationships, and maintenance expertise. But contracts are finite and competitors can add fleet capacity. | Medium |
| Management | Management has maintained fleet utilization above 90%, grown through bolt-on acquisitions, and paid consistent distributions. The recent announced redomiciliation to Texas follows parent Energy Transfers structure. Capital allocation centers on distribution coverage and deleveraging. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue has grown steadily with fleet expansion and utilization. Q1 2026 revenue reached $331.27 million with net income of $45.21 million. Levered free cash flow of $255.55 million TTM covers the $2.10 annual distribution, but total debt of $6.8 billion against equity of $723 million highlights leverage risk. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $26.48, USAC traded at 27.0x TTM earnings, 23.6x forward earnings, 12.1x book value, 10.9x EV/EBITDA, and a 7.93% distribution yield. The premium P/E partly reflects MLP tax structure and distribution demand from yield-oriented investors. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Technical snapshot shows USAC pulling back from a May 2026 high near $30.55 toward the 52-week low of $21.85. Price sits near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around $26.20 with support near $25.66 and resistance near $27.50. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include high financial leverage (945% debt/equity), natural gas price volatility, interest rate sensitivity, counterparty credit risk, distribution cut risk if coverage deteriorates, equity dilution via ATM programs, and tax complexity of K-1 MLP structure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Low-medium |
USAC AI stock forecast
The USAC AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $26.48 quote and TTM EPS of $0.98. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $13.40, a base area near $25.00, and a bullish area near $33.90 before distributions. All scenarios depend on natural gas macro, fleet utilization, leverage trends, and MLP valuation multiples.
$32 to $35
More likely if natural gas production and compression demand stay strong, fleet utilization remains above 92%, USAC deleverages gradually, distribution coverage improves, and MLP yield compression allows a 26x forward multiple.
$23 to $27
More likely if USAC compounds EPS around mid single digits, maintains stable utilization and distribution, but valuation remains capped near 22x forward earnings due to leverage concerns and MLP structure tax complexity.
$12 to $15
More likely if natural gas prices decline, compression demand softens, counterparty defaults rise, interest costs pressure distributable cash flow, or the market re-rates USAC closer to 16x earnings amid energy sector weakness.
USAC AI technical analysis
USAC AI technical analysis shows a pullback from the May 2026 52-week high of $30.55 toward support zones as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. The stock has retraced roughly 50% of its range between the 52-week low of $21.85 and the high, with momentum indicators suggesting a neutral-to-bearish short-term bias.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $26.48 | Quote snapshots around the July 10, 2026 cutoff placed USAC near $26.48. |
| Near support | $25.66 to $26.07 | Barchart listed first support near $26.07 and second support near $25.66, based on pivot levels. |
| Deeper support | $24.81 to $21.85 | The June 2026 swing low near $24.81 and the 52-week low at $21.85 represent deeper pullback zones. |
| Near resistance | $27.50 to $27.91 | Barchart listed first resistance near $27.50 and second resistance near $27.91, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $27.23. |
| Long-term resistance | $30.55 | The May 2026 52-week high near $30.55 is the upper reference point for any sustained recovery. |
| Momentum | RSI near neutral-bearish | The 14-day RSI reading suggests momentum is neutral to slightly bearish given the pullback from the May high. |
| Volume | Average volume near 227,000 shares | Google Finance listed average volume near 226,738 shares, below typical midstream MLP liquidity. |
| Volatility | About 13% below the 52-week high | USAC has a low 60-month beta of 0.18, indicating less correlation with broad market moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $24.81 | A decisive close below the June 2026 swing low would signal further downside toward the 52-week low at $21.85. |
USAC AI trading strategy
The USAC AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a high-yield midstream MLP after its pullback from the 52-week high. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, distribution coverage, K-1 tax considerations, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for USAC to hold above the $25.66 to $26.07 support zone, supported by stable distribution announcements and consistent coverage ratios. A sustained move above $27.50 would suggest distribution yield demand returning to the stock.
A close below $24.81 or a distribution cut announcement should invalidate the yield-support setup for near-term monitoring.
If USAC pulls back toward the $24.81 to $25.66 zone without a negative operating update, compare with natural gas macro, fleet utilization, and leverage metrics before assuming the support level is durable.
Do not accumulate without a maximum loss rule because MLP stocks can gap on natural gas price moves, interest rate surprises, or distribution news.
Track fleet utilization rates, average revenue per horsepower, distributable cash flow coverage ratio, total leverage, interest coverage, and counterparty credit quality rather than just headline EPS.
Reduce confidence if distribution coverage falls below 1.0x, debt/EBITDA trends above 6.0x, or the partnership issues equity at dilutive prices to fund capex.
Investment research summary
USA Compression helps natural gas producers move gas from wellheads to pipelines through large-horsepower compression equipment. Customers pay because outsourcing compression avoids large capital outlay and brings maintenance expertise, uptime guarantees, and regulatory compliance.
The moat comes from fleet scale (3.9 million HP), site-specific customer relationships, maintenance know-how, and long-term contracts. However, large competitors like Archrock and Kodiak can add compression capacity, and equipment standardization limits technological differentiation.
The thesis fails if natural gas production declines reduce compression demand, counterparties default, interest costs overwhelm cash flows, distribution must be cut, or the MLP loses access to equity capital markets at reasonable rates.
Management should be judged by fleet utilization trends, distribution coverage consistency, capital allocation discipline (growth capex vs leverage reduction), relationship with parent Energy Transfer, and whether the redomiciliation to Texas creates tangible benefits for unitholders.
USAC sits inside long-duration demand for natural gas as a transition fuel and baseload power source. Compression services benefit from growing natural gas production, export terminal demand, and pipeline infrastructure buildout, but are exposed to commodity price cycles and energy transition policy.
At roughly 23.6x forward earnings and 10.9x EV/EBITDA, USAC trades at a premium to historical MLP averages partly due to distribution yield demand. Margin of safety improves if price revisits the $24-$25 support zone while coverage metrics stay intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| USAC price | $26.48 | Yahoo Finance quote snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.84 billion, verified as $26.48 x 144.97 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.08 billion | Yahoo Finance financials | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $125.25 million | Yahoo Finance financials | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM levered free cash flow | $255.55 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $14.52 million cash, $6.8 billion total debt (estimated) | Yahoo Finance balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $331.27 million revenue, $45.21 million net income, $0.27 EPS | USA Compression Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Fleet size and utilization | 3.9 million horsepower, utilization above 90% | USA Compression corporate profile | July 12, 2026 |
| Distribution and yield | $2.10 annualized distribution per unit, 7.93% yield | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | First support $26.07, first resistance $27.50, 52-week range $21.85 to $30.55 | Barchart technical analysis | July 12, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell USAC stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. MLP investments carry specific tax and structural risks. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, K-1 implications, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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