Archrock Inc. research snapshot
AROC AI stock analysis currently reads Archrock Inc. as a solid natural gas compression services provider that has pulled back about 15% from its July high, giving investors a more reasonable entry than in recent months. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close was $35.76 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $6.27 billion, and the stock traded near 18.6x trailing earnings after a record-setting 2025 and a Q1 2026 EPS miss. The main question is whether LNG export demand, record US natural gas production, and fleet utilization can keep earnings growing enough to justify the current price for a leveraged energy services company. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$35.76
Market cap
$6.27 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Solid business, better value after pullback
Trend status
Pullback above long-term uptrend support
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Archrock designs, owns, operates, and maintains the largest fleet of natural gas compression equipment in the US, with Contract Operations and Aftermarket Services segments producing recurring revenue. FY2025 revenue grew 28.7% to about $1.49 billion and net income grew about 87% to about $322 million. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from fleet scale, compression infrastructure embedded at customer sites, switching costs tied to maintenance and safety qualification, and a 70-year operating history. Competitors can add compressors, but replicating the national field footprint is costly and slow. | Medium |
| Management | Management raised the quarterly dividend 5% to $0.23 in July 2026, a sign of confidence. Mohit Singh became CFO effective July 6, 2026, replacing Doug Aron who announced retirement. Q1 2026 EPS missed consensus, so execution follow-through and capital allocation remain monitoring items. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue of about $1.49 billion and net income of about $322 million continued a multi-year growth path, with operating cash flow of about $622 million up about 45%. TTM figures through March 2026 are roughly $1.52 billion revenue and $325 million net income, with ROE near 22.9% and a profit margin near 21.6%. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | After the pullback the stock trades near 18.6x TTM earnings, roughly 7.8x EV/EBITDA on Barchart data, about 4.1x book value, and a forward dividend yield near 2.6%. Analyst targets cluster from $40 to $54 with an average near $44. The valuation is lower than in July but not deeply discounted. | Medium |
| Technical trend | AROC closed at $35.76 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages but above the 200-day moving average near $32.09. RSI near 42.5 is neutral and short-term momentum is weak after a correction from the $42.23 52-week high, while the longer-term uptrend structure remains intact. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are natural gas price and activity cycles, high financial leverage (debt-to-equity near 1.57 with interest coverage near 3.6), customer capex cycles, energy transition uncertainty, concentrated US onshore exposure, and a stock that has risen about 338% over five years, reducing the cushion from prior gains. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high confidence for the business map, latest filings, market cap math, valuation ratios, and major risk categories. Lower confidence for near-term direction given the pullback after a record run and an upcoming earnings report. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. Archrock is a well-run business in a necessary service niche, but Q1 2026 EPS missed consensus, the stock has corrected about 15% from its July high, leverage is high, and the next earnings report is a near-term event that could move the stock sharply. | Medium-low |
AROC AI stock forecast
The AROC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $35.76 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires sustained natural gas production growth, strong LNG export and power demand, high fleet utilization, and steady contract pricing. The base case assumes Archrock compounds earnings in the mid-teens and the valuation stays near current levels. The bearish case assumes an energy downturn, weaker utilization, or multiple compression.
$50 to $54
More likely if US natural gas production and LNG export demand remain robust, fleet utilization stays high, contract pricing improves, the dividend keeps rising, and the market values AROC near 20x forward earnings. Wells Fargo carries a $54 target.
$39 to $44
More likely if earnings grow at a mid-to-high single digit to mid-teens pace, the dividend continues, and investors value AROC near 17x to 19x forward earnings. The consensus analyst target is near $44.
$27 to $32
More likely if energy prices weaken, customers reduce compression spending, utilization drops, or leverage becomes a concern, pushing the multiple toward 13x to 15x earnings. A close below the 200-day moving average near $32 would weaken the setup.
AROC AI technical analysis
AROC AI technical analysis starts from the $35.76 close on July 31, 2026 used for this page. Public technical sources showed the stock below its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages but above the 200-day moving average, with RSI near 42.5. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $35.76 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the July 31, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $35.20 to $35.50 | The July 31 intraday low area and the 5-day moving average zone. A daily close below this range would signal more downside near term. |
| Secondary support | $32.00 to $32.20 | The 200-day moving average area near $32.09. A sustained break below this level would challenge the longer-term uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $36.74 to $37.24 | The 100-day and 20-day moving average cluster. Regaining this zone would signal the pullback may be stabilizing. |
| Secondary resistance | $38.87 to $42.23 | The price before the Q1 2026 report and the 52-week high. A recovery above $38.87 would target the record zone, with $42.23 as the key breakout level. |
| 20-day moving average | About $37.24 | Barchart showed AROC below its 20-day moving average around the cutoff, reflecting the near-term pullback. |
| 50-day moving average | About $36.95 | Public technical sources showed AROC below its 50-day moving average, a sign that intermediate momentum has softened. |
| 200-day moving average | About $32.09 | The stock remained above its 200-day moving average, keeping the long-term uptrend structure intact. |
| Momentum | RSI near 42.5, short-term weak | Barchart showed RSI-like relative strength near 42.5 on the 14-day measure. The 14-day ADX near 16 was low, with the negative directional index above the positive one, consistent with a corrective phase. |
| Volume | About 1.2 to 1.9 million shares | The July 31 volume near 1.2 million was below the recent average. Reclaiming the moving-average cluster on rising volume would be more convincing. |
| Volatility | ATR 14 near $1.47 | Position sizing should allow for normal daily movement of about 4% around the cutoff price, with 14-day historical volatility near 33%. |
| Invalidation | Close below $35.20, then $32.09 | A close below the July 31 low weakens the near-term setup. A break below the 200-day moving average would challenge the longer-term uptrend and the bull case. |
AROC AI trading strategy
The AROC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels, with Q2 2026 earnings on August 4, 2026 as the next major catalyst.
Look for AROC to hold above the 200-day moving average near $32.09 and reclaim the 100-day and 20-day zone near $36.74 to $37.24 on rising volume before treating the pullback as finished. A move above $38.87 would target the $42.23 52-week high.
A daily close below the 200-day area near $32.09 would invalidate the longer-term setup. After a 338% five-year gain and a recent earnings miss, chasing a rebound without volume confirmation carries elevated risk.
If AROC pulls back toward $35.20 to $35.50 or the 200-day area near $32.00 to $32.20 without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with natural gas demand trends, fleet utilization, and the Q2 2026 report due August 4.
Define maximum loss and review balance sheet leverage first. Do not average down solely because the long-term business has been strong; the near-term momentum has already turned down.
Track Q2 2026 results on August 4, 2026 (conference call August 5), natural gas production and LNG demand trends, fleet utilization rates, contract renewal pricing, debt levels, and dividend growth signals after the July 2026 raise to $0.23 per quarter.
Lower the rating if earnings growth slows while the stock still trades near the upper end of analyst targets. Watch the debt-to-equity ratio near 1.57 as a risk amplifier in an energy downturn.
Investment research summary
Archrock owns and operates the largest US fleet of natural gas compression equipment and provides maintenance and aftermarket services. Customers pay for reliable gas compression that moves natural gas from the wellhead into processing and pipelines, and Archrock earns recurring contract revenue plus service and parts income.
The moat comes from fleet scale, compression infrastructure embedded at customer sites, switching costs tied to maintenance and safety qualification, and a 70-year operating history that stretches back to the start of outsourced gas compression. Competitors can buy compressors, but replicating Archrock's national field footprint and service density is costly and slow.
The thesis can fail if natural gas prices fall enough to reduce drilling and completion activity, lowering compression demand. High leverage (debt-to-equity near 1.57 with interest coverage near 3.6) means a sustained downturn could stress the balance sheet. LNG and power demand that disappoints, energy transition policy, or customer consolidation could also shrink the market.
Management has executed fleet growth and raised the quarterly dividend 5% to $0.23 in July 2026. The new CFO, Mohit Singh, started July 6, 2026 after Doug Aron announced retirement. Q1 2026 EPS missed consensus, so the near-term question is whether the record-level demand environment translates into earnings that match or beat expectations.
US natural gas production remains at record levels with growing LNG export demand and power generation needs, and compression services are necessary midstream infrastructure rather than discretionary spend. The long-term energy transition creates uncertainty, but natural gas will likely stay a major part of the US energy mix for decades.
At roughly 18.6x trailing earnings, about 7.8x EV/EBITDA on Barchart data, and a forward dividend yield near 2.6%, the pullback has made the entry more reasonable than in July, but the stock is not deeply discounted after a roughly 338% five-year gain. The three-scenario model suggests the base case near $41 is close to the current price, so a clear margin of safety would require either a lower entry price or higher conviction in sustained double-digit earnings growth.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AROC price | $35.76 close on July 31, 2026 | Google Finance and Barchart quote snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.27 billion, verified as $35.76 x 175,260,000 shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and Barchart profile | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $1.52 billion (four quarters through March 2026) | Google Finance quarterly income statement data | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | About $325 million (four quarters through March 2026) | Google Finance quarterly income statement data | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue $1.49 billion (+28.7%), net income $322 million (+87%), operating cash flow $622 million (+45%) | Barchart financial summary | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value and leverage | EV $8.68 billion, debt-to-equity 1.57, interest coverage 3.56 | Barchart profile | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend raised 5% to $0.23 on July 23, 2026, about $0.92 annualized, forward yield near 2.57% | GlobeNewswire via Barchart news and Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 20-day MA $37.24, 50-day MA $36.95, 100-day MA $36.74, 200-day MA $32.09, RSI 14-day near 42.5, ATR 14-day near $1.47 | Barchart technical analysis snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 18.62x TTM PE, 4.13x PB, 2.46% dividend yield at $35.76 from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst targets | Consensus Strong Buy with 9 buy ratings; average target $44, range $40 to $54 (RBC $44, Wells Fargo $54, J.P. Morgan $43, Mizuho $40) | Google Finance analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Next earnings | Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 4, 2026 after market close, with the conference call on August 5, 2026 | Barchart profile and GlobeNewswire announcement | August 3, 2026 |
This AROC AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 31, 2026 and can be wrong.
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