Energy Transfer LP research snapshot
ET AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Energy Transfer as a large US midstream partnership whose pipelines, storage, processing, fractionation, terminals, and export assets convert energy volumes and contracted services into cash flow. At the July 31, 2026 close the unit price was $20.36, the verified market capitalization was $70.06 billion, and the stock sat near the top of its $16.18 to $20.70 52-week range. Energy Transfer reported record first-quarter 2026 volumes, raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to about $18.2 to $18.6 billion, and on July 27, 2026 announced its 19th consecutive quarterly distribution increase to $0.34 per common unit, or $1.36 on an annualized basis, with a next ex-dividend date of August 7, 2026. The second-quarter 2026 earnings report is scheduled for August 4, 2026, after this cutoff, so second-quarter results are not yet incorporated. The bull case must still underwrite about $71.11 billion of total debt, roughly $5.5 billion to $5.9 billion of 2026 growth capital, project delivery, and energy-market and export demand. The ET AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a guaranteed target. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$20.36 NYSE close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$70.06 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Large US midstream partnership with a raised distribution, record first-quarter volumes, higher guidance, material leverage, and a valuation near its 52-week high
Trend status
Bullish above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and near the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Energy Transfer moves, stores, processes, fractionates, exports, and markets natural gas, NGLs, crude oil, refined products, and related services through a large US infrastructure network. Fee-based service demand supports cash generation, although reported revenue and some margins are affected by commodities and marketing. | High |
| Moat | Rights-of-way, interconnected pipelines, storage, terminals, fractionation, export infrastructure, customer links, permits, and operating scale are difficult to duplicate. New capacity, regulation, changing demand, and capital discipline still determine returns on incremental investment. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management is raising the distribution for the 19th consecutive quarter, lifting 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to about $18.2 to $18.6 billion, and targeting leverage of 4 to 4.5 times EBITDA, while committing roughly $5.5 billion to $5.9 billion of 2026 growth capital to projects tied to power, data center, and export demand. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $85.54 billion and net income was about $4.17 billion. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA was about $4.9 billion with distributable cash flow attributable to partners of about $2.7 billion, and record volumes supported a guidance raise for the full year. | High |
| Valuation | At $20.36, financial_rigor.py calculates about 16.97x TTM EPS, 2.25x book value, 19.39x trailing free cash flow per unit, and a 6.63% dividend yield on the $1.35 TTM rate, with the $1.36 annualized rate on the raised distribution slightly higher. GAAP free cash flow can fluctuate sharply with growth capital and acquisitions, so a single multiple is insufficient. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $20.36 was above the 50-day average of $19.59 and the 200-day average of $18.36, with RSI near 60.51 and the price near the $20.70 52-week high. The trend is constructive but needs volume and the August 4 earnings result for confirmation. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because total debt was about $71.11 billion at March 31, 2026, the stock trades near a 52-week high, and energy volumes, commodity-linked margins, counterparty demand, interest costs, permitting, project costs, capital spending, regulation, and tax treatment can affect cash flow and valuation. | High |
| AI confidence | Source-backed descriptive confidence is high after the August 2, 2026 refresh. Confidence in a return outcome is lower because leverage, energy activity, project execution, investor-required yield, and capital allocation can all move the unit price. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ET has a broad infrastructure footprint and a raised distribution, but margin of safety depends on conservative distributable cash flow after growth and maintenance capital, debt service, and distributions, not on the stated yield alone, especially near a 52-week high. | Medium-low |
ET AI stock forecast
The ET AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction. Using the July 31, 2026 close of $20.36, TTM EPS of $1.20, and a three-year auditable mechanical model, outputs are about $25.60 in a bullish case, $20.00 in a base case, and $9.30 in a bearish case before distributions. These model outputs are sensitivity cases, not price targets, and the published ranges retain uncertainty around cash flow, capital spending, leverage, energy-market conditions, and the August 4, 2026 second-quarter report.
$23 to $28 before distributions
More likely if fee-based volumes keep growing, NGL exports and power and data center gas demand remain supportive, projects such as Hugh Brinson and the ninth Mont Belvieu fractionator enter service on schedule, growth capital earns adequate returns, leverage stays manageable, and the distribution keeps rising with cash coverage intact.
$18 to $22 before distributions
More likely if operating performance and cash coverage remain stable, 2026 adjusted EBITDA lands near the $18.2 to $18.6 billion guidance, growth capital follows plan, debt stays financeable, and the market continues to value ET as an income-oriented midstream partnership.
$7 to $11 before distributions
More likely if energy activity, margins, or export demand weaken; projects overrun; debt or financing costs rise; coverage compresses; regulation constrains assets; or investors demand a higher yield for the partnership structure and risk profile after a run to a 52-week high.
ET AI technical analysis
ET AI technical analysis is bullish but extended as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a July 31 close of $20.36, a 50-day moving average of $19.59, a 200-day moving average of $18.36, RSI of 60.51, and 20-day average volume near 8.25 million units. Price is above both averages and near the $20.70 52-week high, so the next move depends on volume and the August 4, 2026 second-quarter report.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $20.36 per common unit | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 NYSE close at $20.36. |
| Immediate support | $19.50 to $19.70 | This range includes the 50-day average near $19.59 and should be refreshed with current volume and energy-market data before use. |
| Deeper support | $18.30 to $18.45 | The 200-day moving average near $18.36 makes this a more important trend area. |
| Near resistance | $20.50 to $20.75 | This range brackets the $20.70 52-week high, the main overhead test. |
| Upper resistance | $21.50 to $22.50 | Analyst targets and prior trading areas sit in this zone, and a sustained move through it would need volume and earnings confirmation. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $19.59, 200-day $18.36 | Price is above both averages, a constructive setup that still needs volume and earnings confirmation. |
| Momentum | RSI 60.51 | Momentum is constructive but approaching the upper zone. RSI alone does not establish a reversal or continuation. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 8.25 million units | Watch volume around the August 4, 2026 earnings report, distribution announcements, project updates, energy-market moves, and changes in interest rates. |
| Volatility | Watch the August 4, 2026 confirmed earnings date | Results, distributable cash flow, capital spending, debt, project commentary, and distribution decisions can create volatility just after this cutoff. |
| Invalidation | Close below $19.50, then below $18.30 | A sustained break below nearby support and the 200-day area weakens a trend-following thesis and calls for a fresh fundamental review. |
ET AI trading strategy
The ET AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal investment advice. It pairs chart levels with pipeline, processing, fractionation, terminal, and export volumes; adjusted EBITDA; distributable cash flow; coverage; growth and maintenance capital; debt; interest costs; distributions; project delivery; and energy-market conditions.
Watch for ET to hold $19.50 to $19.70, clear the $20.50 to $20.75 zone that contains the 52-week high, and then build on a move toward $21.50 to $22.50 with improving volume, stable cash coverage, and a second-quarter report that confirms volume and cash-flow resilience.
A failed attempt at the 52-week high followed by a close below $19.50 weakens trend confidence, especially if distributable cash flow, project returns, debt, or forward capital-spending needs deteriorate.
If ET retests $18.30 to $18.45 without a lasting deterioration in cash coverage, credit quality, asset utilization, or distribution support, compare the lower price with conservative assumptions for capital spending, financing, and normalized energy activity.
Do not treat every high yield as value if it reflects lower volumes, weaker margins, a large project setback, rising leverage, a coverage decline, or a change in the partnership tax or distribution outlook.
Track the August 4, 2026 second-quarter report, adjusted EBITDA, distributable cash flow, coverage, debt maturity and ratings, growth and maintenance capital, major project start dates, volumes, export demand, distributions, buybacks, acquisitions, and regulatory developments.
Position sizing should reflect that ET is a capital-intensive limited partnership with energy-market and tax considerations and a stock near a 52-week high, not a precise AI price prediction or a cash-equivalent.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Energy Transfer to gather, process, transport, fractionate, store, export, and market hydrocarbons through connected physical infrastructure. The business converts asset location, scale, contracts, service demand, and operating reliability into cash flow, with a long-term distribution growth target of 3% to 5% and a leverage target of 4 to 4.5 times EBITDA.
The moat rests on difficult-to-replicate rights-of-way, pipelines, terminals, fractionators, storage, export assets, permits, customer relationships, and scale across roughly 44 states. The moat does not remove capital intensity, regulatory friction, or the risk of excess capacity.
The thesis fails if volumes or margins contract, demand or exports weaken, projects earn poor returns or run late, debt and interest costs rise, credit access tightens, distribution coverage falls, regulation disrupts assets, or MLP tax complexity changes investor demand, especially after the stock has already rallied to a 52-week high.
Management must convert retained cash and external funding into returns above the cost of capital while protecting safety, credit access, distribution coverage, and per-unit economics. The 19th consecutive distribution increase and the 2026 guidance raise support credibility, but large growth budgets and acquisition activity keep capital allocation central to the case.
US natural-gas, NGL, petrochemical, and export infrastructure can benefit from long-lived supply, power and data center demand, and global trade, while electrification, regulation, energy-transition policy, trade flows, and commodity cycles create uncertainty. Midstream value comes from asset utilization and discipline, not from a one-way energy-demand assumption.
At $20.36, ET offers about a 6.63% dividend yield on the $1.35 TTM rate, a $1.36 annualized rate on the raised distribution, and about a 16.97x TTM EPS multiple. Margin of safety improves only when conservative cash-flow assumptions still support growth capital, debt service, and distributions without requiring unusually favorable energy conditions.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ET quote reference | $20.36 NYSE close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis ET price overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $70.06 billion reported, calculated at $20.36 x 3.44 billion units for $70.04 billion, a 0.03% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis ET statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Common units outstanding | 3.44 billion common units, with 10.17% reported insider ownership | StockAnalysis ET statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $85.536 billion from StockAnalysis financials and about $85.540 billion from the StockAnalysis overview, a 0.00% cross-validation variance | StockAnalysis ET financials | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $4.173 billion, down about 5% year over year, matching StockAnalysis financials and the overview | StockAnalysis ET financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue of $92.287 billion, operating income of $9.519 billion, net income of $4.112 billion, and EPS of $1.20 over the trailing twelve months ending March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis ET income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $10.610 billion, capital expenditures of about $6.892 billion, and free cash flow of $3.718 billion, with the statistics page showing free cash flow of $3.62 billion and $1.05 free cash flow per unit | StockAnalysis ET cash flow statement and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operations and guidance | About $4.9 billion adjusted EBITDA, about $2.7 billion distributable cash flow attributable to partners, 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of about $18.2 to $18.6 billion, and about $5.5 to $5.9 billion of planned 2026 growth capital | Energy Transfer Q1 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt | $951 million cash and cash equivalents and $71.11 billion total debt at March 31, 2026, with total debt cross-validated at about $71.11 billion across StockAnalysis balance sheet and statistics pages | StockAnalysis ET balance sheet and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | $1.20 EPS, $9.03 book value per unit, $1.05 free cash flow per unit, and $1.35 TTM annualized distribution. PE about 17.01x, PB 2.25x, P/FCF 19.38x, EV/EBITDA 9.09x, and yield 6.63% verified with financial_rigor.py. | StockAnalysis ET statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Distribution increase | Quarterly distribution raised to $0.34 per common unit, or $1.36 on an annualized basis, the 19th consecutive increase, with an ex-dividend date of August 7, 2026 | Energy Transfer July 27, 2026 distribution announcement | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day average $19.59, 200-day average $18.36, RSI 60.51, 20-day average volume 8.25 million units, beta 0.54, and a confirmed earnings date of August 4, 2026 | StockAnalysis ET statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy across 21 analysts with an average target of $23.90, a low of $22, a median of $24, and a high of $27, about 17.4% above the July 31 close | StockAnalysis ET forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 14 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell out of 21 analysts | StockAnalysis ET forecast recommendation trends | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | RBC $21 to $23 on July 21, 2026, TD Cowen $23 to $24 on July 16, 2026, Barclays $23 on July 16, 2026, Jefferies $23 on July 13, 2026, and Goldman Sachs $21 to $22 on July 9, 2026 | StockAnalysis ET forecast latest forecasts | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 33.65 million units short, about 0.98% of shares outstanding, with 4.10 days to cover | StockAnalysis ET statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $111.37 billion, up about 30.2% from FY2025, with adjusted EPS of $1.53, up about 17.8% | StockAnalysis ET forecast financial forecast | August 2, 2026 |
This ET AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use public data available as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if energy demand, commodity-linked margins, volumes, financing, debt, capital spending, distribution policy, tax treatment, regulation, project execution, or market valuation changes. The second-quarter 2026 earnings report scheduled for August 4, 2026 was not available at the cutoff and is not incorporated into this analysis.
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