Energy Transfer LP research snapshot
ET AI stock analysis currently reads Energy Transfer as a large US midstream partnership whose pipelines, storage, processing, fractionation, terminals, and export assets turn energy volumes and contracted services into cash flow. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, the latest NYSE close was $19.79 and the verified market capitalization was $68.08 billion. First-quarter adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow grew year over year, but the case also requires investors to underwrite $71.11 billion of debt, growth capital, project delivery, distributions, and energy-market activity. The ET AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a guaranteed target. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$19.79 NYSE close on July 9, 2026
Market cap
$68.08 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Large US midstream partnership with diverse, mostly fee-based infrastructure, cash distributions, material leverage, and capital-intensive growth risk
Trend status
Neutral to constructive, near the 50-day average and above the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Energy Transfer moves, stores, processes, fractionates, exports, and markets natural gas, NGLs, crude oil, refined products, and related services through a large US infrastructure network. Fee-based service demand supports cash generation, although reported revenue and some margins are affected by commodities and marketing. | High |
| Moat | Rights-of-way, interconnected pipelines, storage, terminals, fractionation, export infrastructure, customer links, permits, and operating scale are difficult to duplicate. New capacity, regulation, changing demand, and capital discipline still determine returns on incremental investment. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management should be judged on safety, project execution, debt discipline, distribution coverage, acquisition integration, and whether growth capital creates durable per-unit cash flow. Large capital commitments make return-on-invested-capital monitoring important. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $85.54 billion and net income was about $4.17 billion. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose 20% year over year to $4.94 billion and distributable cash flow attributable to partners rose to $2.70 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $19.79, financial_rigor.py calculates about 16.49x TTM EPS, 2.19x book value, 18.85x trailing free cash flow per unit, and a 6.82% annualized distribution yield. GAAP free cash flow can fluctuate sharply with growth capital and acquisitions, so a single multiple is insufficient. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 9 close of $19.79 was near the 50-day average of $19.53 and above the 200-day average of $18.12. RSI near 54.58 is neutral, so the chart needs price and volume confirmation rather than a mechanical buy conclusion. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because total debt was $71.11 billion at March 31, 2026, while energy volumes, commodity-linked margins, counterparty demand, interest costs, permitting, project costs, capital spending, regulation, and tax treatment can affect cash flow and valuation. | High |
| AI confidence | Source-backed descriptive confidence is high. Confidence in a return outcome is lower because leverage, energy activity, project execution, investor-required yield, and capital allocation can all move the unit price. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ET has a broad infrastructure footprint, but margin of safety depends on conservative distributable cash flow after growth and maintenance capital, debt service, and distributions, not on the stated yield alone. | Medium-low |
ET AI stock forecast
The ET AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction. Using the July 9, 2026 close of $19.79, TTM EPS of $1.20, and a three-year auditable mechanical model, outputs are about $27.00 in a bullish case, $18.60 in a base case, and $8.40 in a bearish case before distributions. These model outputs are sensitivity cases, not price targets, and the published ranges retain uncertainty around cash flow, capital spending, leverage, and energy-market conditions.
$24 to $29 before distributions
More likely if fee-based volumes grow, NGL exports and natural-gas demand remain supportive, projects enter service on schedule, growth capital earns adequate returns, leverage stays manageable, and distributions remain covered by cash flow.
$17 to $21 before distributions
More likely if operating performance and cash coverage remain stable, 2026 growth capital follows plan, debt stays financeable, and the market continues to value ET as an income-oriented midstream partnership.
$7 to $11 before distributions
More likely if energy activity, margins, or export demand weaken; projects overrun; debt or financing costs rise; coverage compresses; regulation constrains assets; or investors demand a higher yield for the partnership structure and risk profile.
ET AI technical analysis
ET AI technical analysis is neutral to constructive as of the July 11, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a July 9 close of $19.79, a 50-day moving average of $19.53, a 200-day moving average of $18.12, RSI of 54.58, and 20-day average volume near 8.16 million units. Price is above the longer average but remains close to the shorter average.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $19.79 per common unit | StockAnalysis listed the July 9, 2026 NYSE close at $19.79. |
| Immediate support | $19.20 to $19.50 | This range includes the 50-day average near $19.53 and should be refreshed with current volume and energy-market data before use. |
| Deeper support | $18.00 to $18.25 | The 200-day moving average near $18.12 makes this a more important trend area. |
| Near resistance | $20.00 to $20.20 | This range brackets recent May and July trading areas. |
| Upper resistance | $20.50 to $20.75 | A sustained move through this area would need volume and evidence of continuing cash-flow support. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $19.53, 200-day $18.12 | The price is near the 50-day average and above the 200-day average, a setup that needs confirmation. |
| Momentum | RSI 54.58 | Momentum is neutral. RSI alone does not establish a reversal or continuation. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 8.16 million units | Watch volume around earnings, distribution announcements, project updates, energy-market moves, and changes in interest rates. |
| Volatility | Watch the August 4, 2026 confirmed earnings date | Results, distributable cash flow, capital spending, debt, project commentary, and distribution decisions can create volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $19.20, then below $18.00 | A sustained break below nearby support and the 200-day area weakens a mean-reversion thesis and calls for a fresh fundamental review. |
ET AI trading strategy
The ET AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal investment advice. It pairs chart levels with pipeline, processing, fractionation, terminal, and export volumes; adjusted EBITDA; distributable cash flow; coverage; growth and maintenance capital; debt; interest costs; distributions; project delivery; and energy-market conditions.
Watch for ET to hold $19.20 to $19.50, regain and maintain the $20.00 to $20.20 area, and then clear $20.50 to $20.75 with improving volume, stable cash coverage, and operating updates that confirm volume and cash-flow resilience.
A failed recovery followed by a close below $19.20 weakens trend confidence, especially if distributable cash flow, project returns, debt, or forward capital-spending needs deteriorate.
If ET retests $18.00 to $18.25 without a lasting deterioration in cash coverage, credit quality, asset utilization, or distribution support, compare the lower price with conservative assumptions for capital spending, financing, and normalized energy activity.
Do not treat every high yield as value if it reflects lower volumes, weaker margins, a large project setback, rising leverage, a coverage decline, or a change in the partnership tax or distribution outlook.
Track adjusted EBITDA, distributable cash flow, coverage, debt maturity and ratings, growth and maintenance capital, major project start dates, volumes, export demand, distributions, buybacks, acquisitions, and regulatory developments.
Position sizing should reflect that ET is a capital-intensive limited partnership with energy-market and tax considerations, not a precise AI price prediction or a cash-equivalent.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Energy Transfer to gather, process, transport, fractionate, store, export, and market hydrocarbons through connected physical infrastructure. The business converts asset location, scale, contracts, service demand, and operating reliability into cash flow.
The moat rests on difficult-to-replicate rights-of-way, pipelines, terminals, fractionators, storage, export assets, permits, customer relationships, and scale across 44 states. The moat does not remove capital intensity, regulatory friction, or the risk of excess capacity.
The thesis fails if volumes or margins contract, demand or exports weaken, projects earn poor returns or run late, debt and interest costs rise, credit access tightens, distribution coverage falls, regulation disrupts assets, or MLP tax complexity changes investor demand.
Management must convert retained cash and external funding into returns above the cost of capital while protecting safety, credit access, distribution coverage, and per-unit economics. Large growth budgets and acquisition activity make capital allocation central to the case.
US natural-gas, NGL, petrochemical, and export infrastructure can benefit from long-lived supply, power demand, and global trade, while electrification, regulation, energy-transition policy, trade flows, and commodity cycles create uncertainty. Midstream value comes from asset utilization and discipline, not from a one-way energy-demand assumption.
At $19.79, ET offers a 6.82% annualized distribution yield under the selected inputs and a 16.49x TTM EPS multiple. Margin of safety improves only when conservative cash-flow assumptions still support growth capital, debt service, and distributions without requiring unusually favorable energy conditions.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ET quote reference | $19.79 NYSE close on July 9, 2026 | StockAnalysis ET price history | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $68.08 billion calculated from $19.79 x 3.44 billion units, matching the selected reported value with a 0.00% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis ET statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Common units outstanding | 3.44 billion common units, with 10.17% reported insider ownership | StockAnalysis ET statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $85.536 billion from Macrotrends and about $85.540 billion from StockAnalysis, a 0.00% cross-validation variance | Macrotrends ET revenue | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $4.173 billion from Macrotrends and about $4.170 billion from StockAnalysis, a 0.04% cross-validation variance | Macrotrends ET net income | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operations and guidance | $4.94 billion adjusted EBITDA, $2.70 billion distributable cash flow attributable to partners, 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $18.2 to $18.6 billion, and $5.5 to $5.9 billion of planned growth capital | Energy Transfer Q1 2026 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt | $951 million cash and cash equivalents and $71.11 billion total debt at March 31, 2026. Cash was cross-checked between the Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis with a 0.00% variance. | Energy Transfer Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 11, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | $1.20 EPS, $9.03 book value per unit, $1.05 free cash flow per unit, and $1.35 annualized distribution. PE 16.49x, PB 2.19x, P/FCF 18.85x, and yield 6.82% verified with financial_rigor.py. | StockAnalysis ET statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day average $19.53, 200-day average $18.12, RSI 54.58, 20-day average volume 8.16 million units, and August 4, 2026 confirmed earnings date | StockAnalysis ET statistics | July 11, 2026 |
This ET AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use public data available as of July 11, 2026 and may be wrong if energy demand, commodity-linked margins, volumes, financing, debt, capital spending, distribution policy, tax treatment, regulation, project execution, or market valuation changes.
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