Union Pacific Corporation research snapshot
UNP AI stock analysis currently reads Union Pacific as a high-quality North American railroad with record financial results, strong freight volume and pricing, a 59.2% adjusted operating ratio, and a Norfolk Southern transaction that passed key regulatory milestones. UNP closed near $292.13 on July 31, 2026, with a market cap near $173.55 billion and an all-time high of $315.99 hit on July 23, 2026, the day it reported Q2 earnings. The UNP AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, because the thesis depends on freight demand, core pricing, fuel and labor cost control, Surface Transportation Board approval, merger financing, synergy delivery, and the multiple investors are willing to pay for a mature but durable railroad.
Current price
$292.13 on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$173.55 billion market cap, with 594.08 million shares outstanding
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality western railroad with record Q2 2026 results, a near 59% adjusted operating ratio, and a Norfolk Southern merger advancing through STB review
Trend status
Up-trending but off an all-time high, above major moving averages with an 88% Buy technical reading on Barchart
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Union Pacific sells mission-critical rail freight capacity across bulk, industrial, and premium categories in 23 western states, connecting producers, ports, Mexico trade lanes, and end markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from irreplaceable right-of-way assets, network density, regulated barriers to entry, scale, fuel efficiency, customer switching friction, terminal access, and long operating know-how. | High |
| Management | CEO Jim Vena pushed safety, service, productivity, and operating-ratio discipline while advancing the Norfolk Southern merger, including a CN settlement agreement and expanded gateway pricing commitments. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 operating revenue grew 12% to $6.9 billion, net income grew 6% to $2.0 billion, adjusted EPS hit $3.41, and the company raised its full-year EPS outlook to high single digits. | High |
| Valuation | At $292.13 and TTM EPS near $12.35, UNP traded near 23.7x earnings, about 6.8x sales, near 26.7x free cash flow, and a 1.94% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | UNP hit an all-time high of $315.99 on July 23, 2026 and pulled back to near $292, still above major moving averages with an 88% Buy technical opinion on Barchart. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are fuel inflation, STB approval conditions, Norfolk Southern integration and dilution, freight recession, labor costs, service failures, accident risk, and multiple compression after a strong run. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings, earnings releases, and market data are available. Predictive confidence is medium because the stock now embeds merger, regulatory, fuel, and cycle assumptions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | UNP is a durable franchise with strong 2026 execution, but the current price needs either steady earnings compounding or credible merger value creation to offset valuation and integration risk. | Medium |
UNP AI stock forecast
The UNP AI stock forecast uses the July 31, 2026 close near $292.13, TTM EPS near $12.35, analyst FY2026 EPS estimates near $13.05, and a three-year scenario model. The model produced a bearish value near $175, a base value near $290, and a bullish value near $375 before dividends and before final Norfolk Southern transaction effects. Analyst price targets range from $245 to $375 with a mean near $328.29. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$350 to $395 before dividends
More likely if freight demand improves, domestic intermodal keeps growing, core pricing stays above inflation, operating ratio improves further, the Norfolk Southern deal clears STB review with manageable conditions, and synergy evidence supports a higher rail multiple.
$270 to $310 before dividends
More likely if UNP compounds EPS in the high single digits as guided, preserves service quality, manages fuel and labor cost, and investors keep valuing the company near a low-20s earnings multiple.
$160 to $190 before dividends
More likely if fuel inflation outruns pricing, freight volumes weaken, service metrics deteriorate, the STB imposes costly merger conditions, debt funding pressures capital returns, or the market re-rates railroads toward mid-cycle industrial multiples.
UNP AI technical analysis
UNP AI technical analysis uses market data available at the July 31, 2026 data cutoff. UNP closed near $292.13 after reaching an all-time high of $315.99 on July 23, 2026, the day it reported Q2 results. Barchart gave an 88% Buy technical opinion with a strengthening short-term outlook, and TradingView rated the stock Buy with a Strong Buy one-month reading. The setup is constructive but no longer early after the pullback from the all-time high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $292.13 | Barchart listed this July 31, 2026 close, with an intraday range near $287.91 to $293.94 on StockAnalysis. |
| Immediate support | $288.71 | Barchart listed this as the first support level under the July 31 close. |
| Second support | $285.30 to $282.68 | Barchart placed its second and third support levels here, bracketing the early July breakout zone. |
| Major support | $275 to $277 | This area is near the Barchart Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of $275.82 and aligns with late June consolidation. |
| Near resistance | $294.74 to $297.36 | Barchart listed first and second resistance points here, just above the July 31 close. |
| Upside resistance | $300 to $316 | The third resistance point is near $300.77, with the July 23, 2026 all-time high of $315.99 as the outer ceiling. |
| Moving averages | Above major averages; 88% Buy technical opinion | Barchart reported an 88% Buy rating with long-term indicators supporting the trend, though absolute 50-day and 200-day values varied by vendor. |
| Momentum | Bullish trend but off the high by about 7% | TradingView rated momentum Buy with a Strong Buy one-month reading, while the stock pulled back roughly 7% from the $315.99 all-time high. |
| Volume | Volume near 3.78 million shares on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis listed that day volume; breakouts should be judged against above-average volume near resistance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $282.68, then below $275 | A close below the third Barchart support would weaken the short-term setup, while a break below the Fibonacci 61.8% zone near $275 would force a fresh trend and merger-risk review. |
UNP AI trading strategy
The UNP AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with freight revenue, carloads, operating ratio, fuel surcharge revenue, labor cost, service reliability, dividend coverage, STB review, Norfolk Southern merger financing, and synergy execution.
Watch for UNP to hold the $282.68 to $288.71 support zone and clear $294.74 to $297.36 on above-average volume while the next earnings update confirms freight revenue, operating ratio, service metrics, and merger review progress.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $282.68 should reduce setup confidence, especially if management commentary points to weaker carloads, weaker pricing, or higher fuel and merger friction.
If UNP pulls back toward $275 to $277 without a break in pricing, service, operating ratio, or merger economics, compare the new price with EPS power, dividend yield, and rail peer multiples.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive if STB approval risk rises, fuel inflation accelerates, debt funding becomes more expensive, service quality weakens, or synergy assumptions become less credible.
Track bulk, industrial, and premium freight revenue, carloads, fuel surcharge trends, operating ratio, train length, terminal dwell, locomotive productivity, free cash flow, dividend coverage, buyback policy, merger milestones, and STB conditions.
Position sizing should reflect that Union Pacific is a high-quality infrastructure franchise, but it is still exposed to fuel and labor inflation, economic cycles, regulation, large-network accidents, and merger execution.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Union Pacific because rail moves grain, energy, industrial products, autos, containers, and other freight at scale across hard-to-replicate western U.S. corridors. In Q2 2026 freight revenue grew 12% to $6.5 billion, with domestic intermodal posting a fourth consecutive record quarter.
The moat is strongest in physical network scarcity, route density, regulatory barriers, scale economies, fuel efficiency, and customer switching friction. It can narrow if service reliability falls, trucking becomes structurally cheaper, fuel inflation weakens pricing power, or merger integration distracts management.
The thesis fails if fuel inflation outruns pricing, freight volumes weaken, labor costs outrun productivity, safety incidents raise costs, STB conditions dilute merger value, Norfolk Southern integration proves harder than expected, or investors overpay for a mature railroad near an all-time high.
Jim Vena is associated with precision railroading discipline, operating productivity, and service focus. He delivered record Q2 2026 results, raised the full-year EPS outlook, reached a CN settlement agreement, and expanded gateway pricing commitments while pursuing a large, regulated, debt-funded Norfolk Southern combination.
Railroads remain central to freight efficiency, ports, agriculture, energy, industrial supply chains, Mexico trade, and lower-emission transportation. The long-term trend is durable, but growth is tied to industrial production, trade flows, fuel prices, intermodal competition, and regulation.
At $292.13, UNP already prices in a strong franchise, strong 2026 execution, and credible merger value creation. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back without a service or earnings reset, or if regulatory progress and synergy evidence raise normalized EPS confidence.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $292.13 | StockAnalysis UNP quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $173.55 billion | StockAnalysis UNP quote and Barchart profile | July 31, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 594.08 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis UNP quote | July 31, 2026 |
| All-time high | $315.99 on July 23, 2026 | TradingView UNP quote and Barchart performance | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating revenue | $6.9 billion, up 12% year over year | Union Pacific Q2 2026 earnings release and call transcript | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income and EPS | $2.0 billion net income and $3.36 diluted EPS, $3.41 adjusted | Union Pacific Q2 2026 earnings release | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating ratio | 59.7% reported and 59.2% adjusted | Union Pacific Q2 2026 earnings release | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating revenue | $24.51 billion, up 1.07% | Union Pacific FY2025 results via StockAnalysis financials | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $7.138 billion | Union Pacific FY2025 results via StockAnalysis financials | July 31, 2026 |
| TTM financials at June 30, 2026 | Revenue $25.41 billion, net income $7.33 billion, free cash flow $6.50 billion | StockAnalysis financials | July 31, 2026 |
| Total debt and cash | Total debt $30.94 billion, cash and investments $2.11 billion | StockAnalysis financials | July 31, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE near 23.7x, forward PE near 21.6x, P/S near 6.8x, P/FCF near 26.7x | StockAnalysis quote and financials | July 31, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | Quarterly dividend raised 3% to $1.42, about 1.94% annual yield | Union Pacific dividend announcement | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price target | Buy rating with a mean target of $328.29, range $245 to $375 across 25 analysts | StockAnalysis UNP forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Norfolk Southern transaction terms | 1.0 UNP share plus $88.82 cash per NSC share, about 225 million UNP shares, $2.5 billion reverse termination fee | Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern transaction release | July 31, 2026 |
| STB merger milestone | STB accepted the application as complete on May 28, 2026; supplemental information filed on July 27, 2026 | Union Pacific Q2 2026 earnings call and merger news | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical opinion and levels | 88% Buy on Barchart; support $282.68 to $288.71, resistance $294.74 to $297.36 | Barchart UNP technical opinion | July 31, 2026 |
This UNP AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a personalized trading plan. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 31, 2026, and may be wrong if freight demand, fuel prices, regulation, merger terms, interest rates, costs, valuation multiples, or company fundamentals change.
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