Tyler Technologies, Inc. research snapshot
TYL AI stock analysis currently reads Tyler Technologies as a durable public sector software business whose recurring revenue base, SaaS migration, payments exposure, and government client relationships remain attractive, but the July 8, 2026 setup is not a precise buy signal. The stock has fallen sharply from its 52-week high, trades near 44.40x TTM EPS and 19.71x free cash flow per share, and now carries fresh capital structure questions after issuing $1.4375 billion of 2031 convertible notes. The TYL AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a guaranteed price target, with SaaS growth, ARR, free cash flow, AI product adoption, government budget health, acquisitions, buybacks, and debt use as the main evidence to monitor.
Current price
$321.45
Market cap
$13.55 billion verified market cap
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
High-quality public sector software compounder with SaaS conversion upside, valuation reset, AI disruption debate, and leverage from new convertible notes
Trend status
Recovering but volatile, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages while still far below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tyler sells mission-critical software, payments, data, courts, public administration, and platform technology to government clients. Recurring revenue was 87.8% of Q1 2026 revenue, which supports quality. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from switching costs, long implementations, public sector domain depth, integrations, installed base, compliance needs, and trust. The weaker point is that AI-native workflow tools may pressure some modules over time. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Lynn Moore and CFO Brian Miller are pushing cloud migration, transaction-funded models, AI features, M&A, and buybacks. The May 2026 convertible note raise makes capital allocation a more important test. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 9.1% to $2.33 billion and GAAP net income rose about 20% to $315.6 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 8.6% to $613.5 million and free cash flow more than doubled to $102.8 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $321.45, TYL screens near 44.40x TTM EPS, 3.83x book value, 19.71x free cash flow per share, 5.69x sales, and a 0.00% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above the 50-day average near $295.05 and the 200-day average near $299.88, with RSI near 72.46. That is constructive but no longer deeply oversold. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are AI disruption, software valuation compression, government budget cycles, procurement delays, cybersecurity, integration risk, debt and capped-call complexity, and weaker transaction volumes. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because core figures are source-backed and cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because the debate is about future multiples and AI durability, not only current accounting. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | TYL has a strong business model, but the current price requires continued SaaS execution, free cash flow conversion, disciplined M&A, and proof that AI expands rather than erodes the franchise. | Medium |
TYL AI stock forecast
The TYL AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the next three years depend on SaaS growth, ARR expansion, transaction revenue, AI product monetization, government technology budgets, For The Record integration, free cash flow, buybacks, and how the market values vertical software. Using the $321.45 price reference, TTM EPS of $7.24, and the audited three-year model, the mechanical range points to about $142 in a bear case, $270 in a base case, and $385 in a bullish case before any additional dilution or buyback effects.
$360 to $410 before dilution or buyback effects
More likely if SaaS revenue keeps growing above 20%, ARR growth stays near double digits, free cash flow margin holds in the high-20s, AI features increase customer value, acquisitions integrate cleanly, and the market values Tyler near a premium vertical software multiple.
$250 to $300 before dilution or buyback effects
More likely if revenue follows 2026 guidance, EPS grows around low double digits, the market uses a high-20s earnings multiple, and buybacks offset some dilution without changing the basic valuation debate.
$130 to $165 before dilution or buyback effects
More likely if AI-native competition pressures pricing, government projects slow, acquisition costs rise, the convertible note raise is viewed as financial engineering, or software multiples compress toward lower-growth peers.
TYL AI technical analysis
TYL AI technical analysis is constructive but volatile as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 7 close of $321.45 and a July 8 pre-market reference near $320.01, while Google Finance showed intraday trading near $316.04 at 9:34 AM ET. Investing.com listed the 50-day moving average near $295.05, the 200-day moving average near $299.88, and 14-day RSI near 72.46. The chart has recovered from the 52-week low but remains far below the $621.34 52-week high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $321.45 | StockAnalysis listed the July 7, 2026 close at $321.45, with a July 8 pre-market reference near $320.01. |
| Immediate support | $316 to $321 | This area brackets the latest Google Finance intraday reference near $316.04 and the prior StockAnalysis close near $321.45. |
| Moving-average support | $295 to $300 | Investing.com listed the 50-day moving average near $295.05 and the 200-day moving average near $299.88. |
| Deeper support | $270 to $271 | This range sits near the StockAnalysis 52-week low of $270.71 and would be the larger trend stress area. |
| Near resistance | $330 to $331 | StockAnalysis listed the July 7 daily range high near $330.73, making it the first resistance zone to reclaim. |
| Upper resistance | $405 to $438 | This range spans the initial 2031 note conversion price near $405.94 and the StockAnalysis analyst target near $437.52. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $295.05, 200-day near $299.88 | Holding above both moving averages keeps the recovery constructive. A close below both would weaken the trend setup. |
| Momentum | RSI near 72.46 | RSI is elevated enough that new entries should wait for either a pullback or a high-volume breakout confirmation. |
| Volume | StockAnalysis listed 615,016 shares on July 7 | Breakouts above resistance should be judged against normal trading activity because post-earnings moves can reverse quickly. |
| Volatility | Watch July 29, 2026 earnings | Q2 results, 2026 guidance, SaaS bookings, transaction volumes, AI product commentary, and convertible note updates are likely volatility triggers. |
| Invalidation | Close below $295, then below $270 | A sustained break below the moving averages would reduce trend confidence. A break below the 52-week low would challenge the larger recovery thesis. |
TYL AI trading strategy
The TYL AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with SaaS growth, ARR, free cash flow, AI adoption, government procurement, buybacks, acquisitions, and capital structure evidence.
Watch for TYL to hold the $295 to $300 moving-average zone and reclaim $330 to $331 with improving volume, stable 2026 guidance, and constructive commentary on SaaS growth, transaction revenue, and AI monetization.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $295 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals slower cloud conversions, weaker transaction growth, or lower free cash flow conversion.
If TYL retests the $270 to $271 area without a structural decline in ARR, retention, government demand, or free cash flow, compare the lower price with normalized EPS, cash generation, and the durability of mission-critical public sector software.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive if AI competition hurts win rates, debt-funded buybacks damage balance-sheet flexibility, or acquisitions dilute returns.
Track SaaS revenue growth, ARR, recurring revenue mix, transaction volumes, free cash flow margin, R&D investment, public sector budget commentary, For The Record integration, share repurchases, and 2031 note dilution math.
Position sizing should reflect that TYL is a high-quality vertical software company facing a real AI and valuation debate, not an AI price prediction with guaranteed upside.
Investment research summary
Government clients pay Tyler because courts, public administration, payments, data, records, and civic workflows are complex, regulated, and costly to replace once embedded.
Tyler benefits from switching costs, domain-specific public sector products, long implementation cycles, data and workflow integration, reference customers, and more than 45,000 installations across 15,000 locations. The moat is durable but must adapt to AI-native workflow tools.
The thesis fails if AI tools commoditize parts of the workflow, government clients delay projects, acquisitions absorb cash without improving growth, cybersecurity trust weakens, or investors pay a premium multiple for slowing software growth.
Management has emphasized cloud migration, transaction-funded models, AI, M&A, and repurchases. The key capital allocation question is whether the 2031 convertible note proceeds support durable value creation or mainly offset near-term share count pressure.
Public sector digital modernization, cloud migration, payments digitization, data interoperability, and AI-assisted citizen services are long-term tailwinds. The offset is slower government procurement and higher scrutiny of cybersecurity, privacy, and AI governance.
At $321.45, TYL is cheaper than its prior high but still valued as a quality software compounder. Margin of safety improves if SaaS growth and free cash flow targets hold while the market gains confidence that AI is a revenue enhancer, not a disruptor.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TYL quote reference | $321.45 close on July 7, 2026, and $320.01 pre-market reference on July 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis TYL overview | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $13.55 billion reported and $13.56 billion calculated from $321.45 x 42.17 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis TYL overview | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 42.17 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis TYL overview | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.33 billion in Tyler 2025 annual report, cross-checked against $2.33 billion from StockAnalysis | Tyler Technologies 2025 Annual Report | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $315.6 million in Tyler 2025 annual report, cross-checked against $315.6 million from StockAnalysis | Tyler Technologies 2025 Annual Report | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $613.5 million revenue, $81.2 million GAAP net income, $133.4 million non-GAAP net income, and $102.8 million free cash flow | Tyler Technologies Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 recurring revenue and ARR | $538.6 million recurring revenue, 87.8% of total revenue, $429.8 million subscription revenue, $222.4 million SaaS revenue, and $2.15 billion ARR | Tyler Technologies Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash, investments, and debt | $397.8 million cash plus investments at March 31, 2026 before the May note raise; StockAnalysis listed $346.35 million cash, $47.96 million debt, and $298.39 million net cash | Tyler Q1 2026 release and StockAnalysis TYL statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| 2031 convertible notes | $1.4375 billion of 0.50% convertible senior notes due 2031 closed on May 14, 2026, with part of the proceeds used for share repurchases and capped calls | Tyler Technologies investor release | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 outlook | Tyler guided for $2.535 billion to $2.575 billion revenue, $12.50 to $12.75 non-GAAP diluted EPS, and 26% to 28% free cash flow margin | Tyler Technologies Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day moving average near $295.05, 200-day moving average near $299.88, 14-day RSI near 72.46, and 52-week range of $270.71 to $621.34 | Investing.com technicals and StockAnalysis TYL overview | July 8, 2026 |
This TYL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date, may be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, market prices, and your own risk constraints.
