Tyler Technologies, Inc. research snapshot
TYL AI stock analysis currently reads Tyler Technologies as a durable public sector software business that reported 21.7% SaaS revenue growth, record SaaS and total bookings, and record second-quarter free cash flow in Q2 2026, but the stock still trades well below its 200-day moving average after a sharp 52-week decline driven by AI disruption worries and software multiple compression. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, TYL closed near $309.60 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $12.68 billion, about 40.8x trailing EPS and 23.7x the 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint, a fresh $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization, and a $1.4 billion 2031 convertible note raise. The TYL AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a guaranteed price target, with SaaS growth, ARR, transaction revenue, AI monetization, government budgets, acquisitions, buybacks, and note dilution as the main evidence to monitor.
Current price
$309.60
Market cap
$12.68 billion verified market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
High-quality public sector software compounder with 21.7% SaaS growth and record bookings, offset by a 44% 52-week decline, AI disruption debate, and a new $1.4 billion convertible note stack
Trend status
Recovered from the 52-week low but still below the 200-day moving average, with a neutral RSI near 50
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tyler sells mission-critical software, payments, data, courts, public administration, and platform technology to government clients. Recurring revenue was 86.7% of Q2 2026 revenue, which supports quality. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from switching costs, long implementations, public sector domain depth, integrations, installed base of more than 50,000 installations across 16,000 client locations, compliance needs, and trust. The weaker point is that AI-native workflow tools may pressure some modules over time. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Lynn Moore and CFO Brian Miller are pushing cloud migration, transaction-funded models, AI features, M&A such as For The Record and CODY Systems, and aggressive buybacks. The 2026 convertible note raise and $1.5 billion repurchase plan make capital allocation a more important test. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 9.1% to $2.332 billion and GAAP net income rose about 20% to $315.6 million. Q2 2026 revenue rose 8.2% to $645.1 million, SaaS revenue rose 21.7% to $230.6 million, and free cash flow rose 34.7% to $118.5 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $309.60, TYL screens near 40.8x trailing EPS, 21.6x consensus forward EPS, 23.7x the 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint, 4.17x book value, 17.75x TTM free cash flow per share, and 5.22x sales. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $309.60 on July 31, 2026, just above the 50-day average near $305.04 but still below the 200-day average near $375.68, with RSI near 50.05. That is a neutral-to-recovering setup, not a confirmed uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are AI disruption, software valuation compression, government budget cycles, procurement delays, cybersecurity, integration risk, a new $1.4 billion convertible note stack, capped-call complexity, and weaker transaction volumes. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because core figures are source-backed and cross-checked across the earnings release, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends. Return confidence is lower because the debate is about future multiples and AI durability, not only current accounting. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | TYL has a strong business model, but the current price requires continued SaaS execution, free cash flow conversion, disciplined M&A, and proof that AI expands rather than erodes the franchise after the 2026 valuation reset. | Medium |
TYL AI stock forecast
The TYL AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the next three years depend on SaaS growth, ARR expansion, transaction revenue, AI product monetization, government technology budgets, For The Record and CODY Systems integration, free cash flow, buybacks, convertible note dilution math, and how the market values vertical software after the AI disruption reset. Using the $309.60 July 31, 2026 close, the 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint near $13.08, and the audited three-scenario model, the framework points to about $190 to $260 in a bear case, $350 to $430 in a base case, and $500 to $580 in a bullish case before any additional dilution or buyback effects.
$500 to $580 before dilution or buyback effects
More likely if SaaS revenue keeps compounding above 20%, ARR growth stays near double digits, free cash flow margin holds near 26% to 28%, AI features such as Resident AI Assistant and Document Automation increase customer value, acquisitions integrate cleanly, and the market values Tyler near a premium vertical software multiple.
$350 to $430 before dilution or buyback effects
More likely if revenue follows the $2.535 billion to $2.575 billion 2026 guidance, non-GAAP EPS grows in line with the $12.95 to $13.20 guidance, the market uses a low-20s earnings multiple, and buybacks offset some dilution without changing the basic valuation debate.
$190 to $260 before dilution or buyback effects
More likely if AI-native competition pressures pricing, government projects slow, acquisition costs rise, the convertible note raise and capped calls are viewed as financial engineering, or software multiples compress toward lower-growth peers.
TYL AI technical analysis
TYL AI technical analysis is neutral-to-recovering but not confirmed as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31, 2026 close of $309.60, down 4.24% on the day, with a $307.63 to $321.62 intraday range and 1.24 million shares traded. StockAnalysis statistics listed the 50-day moving average near $305.04, the 200-day moving average near $375.68, and 14-day RSI near 50.05. The chart has recovered from the 52-week low of $270.71 but remains far below the $621.34 52-week high and the 200-day moving average.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $309.60 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 close at $309.60, down $13.71 or 4.24%, with an after-hours reference near $309.55. |
| Immediate support | $305 to $308 | This area brackets the July 31 intraday low near $307.63 and the 50-day moving average near $305.04. |
| Deeper support | $270 to $271 | This range sits near the StockAnalysis 52-week low of $270.71 and would be the larger trend stress area. |
| Near resistance | $321 to $323 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31 intraday high near $321.62 and the prior close near $323.31, making this the first resistance zone to reclaim. |
| 200-day resistance | $375 to $376 | StockAnalysis listed the 200-day moving average near $375.68. Reclaiming it would meaningfully improve the longer-term trend setup. |
| Upper resistance | $395 to $440 | This range spans the current analyst target cluster from Goldman Sachs near $395 to Baird near $435, with the StockAnalysis consensus target near $426.64. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $305.04, 200-day near $375.68 | The price is above the 50-day average but below the 200-day average. A close below $305 would weaken the near-term recovery; a sustained move toward $375 is needed to confirm a longer-term turn. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50.05 | RSI is neutral, which leaves room for the move to develop in either direction after the post-earnings drop. |
| Volume | StockAnalysis listed 1,244,131 shares on July 31 | Volume was elevated around the July 29 earnings release. Breakouts above resistance should be judged against the roughly 794,000 share 20-day average. |
| Volatility | Watch late October 2026 earnings | Q3 results, 2026 guidance, SaaS bookings, transaction volumes, AI product commentary, CODY Systems integration, and buyback progress are likely volatility triggers. |
| Invalidation | Close below $305, then below $270 | A sustained break below the 50-day moving average would reduce near-term recovery confidence. A break below the 52-week low would challenge the larger stabilization thesis. |
TYL AI trading strategy
The TYL AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with SaaS growth, ARR, free cash flow, AI adoption, government procurement, buybacks, acquisitions, and capital structure evidence.
Watch for TYL to hold the $305 to $308 support and the 50-day moving average near $305.04, then reclaim $321 to $323 with improving volume, stable 2026 guidance, and constructive commentary on SaaS growth, transaction revenue, and AI monetization.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $305 should reduce near-term confidence, especially if management signals slower cloud conversions, weaker transaction growth, or lower free cash flow conversion.
If TYL retests the $270 to $271 area without a structural decline in ARR, retention, government demand, or free cash flow, compare the lower price with normalized EPS, cash generation, and the durability of mission-critical public sector software.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive if AI competition hurts win rates, debt-funded buybacks damage balance-sheet flexibility, or acquisitions dilute returns.
Track SaaS revenue growth, ARR, recurring revenue mix, transaction volumes, free cash flow margin, R&D investment, public sector budget commentary, For The Record and CODY Systems integration, share repurchases, and 2031 note dilution math.
Position sizing should reflect that TYL is a high-quality vertical software company facing a real AI and valuation debate after a 44% 52-week decline, not an AI price prediction with guaranteed upside.
Investment research summary
Government clients pay Tyler because courts, public administration, payments, data, records, and civic workflows are complex, regulated, and costly to replace once embedded, and because Tyler keeps adding AI-assisted capabilities that tap labor budgets.
Tyler benefits from switching costs, domain-specific public sector products, long implementation cycles, data and workflow integration, reference customers, and more than 50,000 installations across 16,000 locations. The moat is durable but must adapt to AI-native workflow tools and prove AI monetization.
The thesis fails if AI tools commoditize parts of the workflow, government clients delay projects, acquisitions absorb cash without improving growth, cybersecurity trust weakens, or investors pay a premium multiple for slowing software growth after the 2026 reset.
Management has emphasized cloud migration, transaction-funded models, AI, M&A, and repurchases. The key capital allocation question is whether the 2031 convertible note proceeds and the $1.5 billion repurchase plan support durable value creation or mainly offset near-term share count pressure.
Public sector digital modernization, cloud migration, payments digitization, data interoperability, and AI-assisted citizen services are long-term tailwinds. The offset is slower government procurement, shrinking public sector labor, and higher scrutiny of cybersecurity, privacy, and AI governance.
At $309.60, TYL is far below its 2026 high but still valued as a quality software compounder near 40x trailing EPS. Margin of safety improves if SaaS growth and free cash flow targets hold while the market gains confidence that AI is a revenue enhancer, not a disruptor.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TYL quote reference | $309.60 close on July 31, 2026, down 4.24%, with an after-hours reference near $309.55 | StockAnalysis TYL overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $12.68 billion reported and $12.68 billion calculated from $309.60 x 40.95 million shares, deviation 0.01% | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis TYL overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 40.95 million shares outstanding, down 2.58% year over year | StockAnalysis TYL statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $2.332 billion revenue and $315.6 million net income in FY2025, cross-checked across StockAnalysis and Macrotrends with no deviation | Tyler Technologies 2025 annual report via StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $645.1 million revenue up 8.2%, $93.5 million GAAP net income or $2.23 per diluted share, and $129.0 million non-GAAP net income or $3.08 per diluted share | Tyler Technologies Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 recurring revenue, SaaS, and ARR | $559.5 million recurring revenue or 86.7% of total, $453.7 million subscription revenue, $230.6 million SaaS revenue up 21.7%, and $2.24 billion ARR up 8.2% | Tyler Technologies Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 free cash flow | $118.5 million free cash flow, up 34.7%, a record for a second quarter, with cash flows from operations of $124.4 million | Tyler Technologies Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 outlook | Tyler guided for $2.535 billion to $2.575 billion revenue, $12.95 to $13.20 non-GAAP diluted EPS, and 26% to 28% free cash flow margin | Tyler Technologies Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net debt | About $970 million cash plus investments at June 30, 2026, total debt near $1.455 billion including $1.409 billion of net 2031 convertible notes, and net debt near $485 million | Tyler Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis TYL balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| 2031 convertible notes and buybacks | $1.4 billion of 0.50% convertible senior notes due 2031 closed on May 14, 2026 with capped calls raising the effective conversion price to $655.77; Q2 2026 share repurchases of $505 million and a new $1.5 billion repurchase authorization on July 24, 2026 | Tyler Technologies Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day moving average near $305.04, 200-day moving average near $375.68, 14-day RSI near 50.05, and 52-week range of $270.71 to $621.34 | StockAnalysis TYL statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus rating Buy with an average price target near $426.64, up about 37.8% from the July 31, 2026 close, across 22 analysts | StockAnalysis TYL forecast | August 2, 2026 |
This TYL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date, may be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, market prices, and your own risk constraints.
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