Tractor Supply Company research snapshot
TSCO AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Tractor Supply Company as a durable rural lifestyle retailer whose near-term earnings power is under pressure after a Q2 miss and a full-year guidance cut. The stock closed at $30.77 on July 31, 2026 at a market capitalization near $16.14 billion, re-verified as $30.77 times 524.45 million shares with a 0.02% deviation. Q2 2026, reported July 23, 2026, delivered net sales of $4.54 billion, up about 2%, comparable store sales down 1.5%, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.81 versus a consensus near $0.82, with GAAP EPS of $0.69 and net income down 16.1%. Management cut the 2026 outlook to net sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5%, comparable sales of -1% to flat, adjusted operating margin of 8.5% to 8.8%, and adjusted EPS of $1.90 to $2.00, withdrew the prior long-term financial framework, and plans to close about 75 Petsense stores while trimming 2027 store openings to 85 to 90. This TSCO AI stock analysis is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$30.77
Market cap
$16.14 billion, verified as $30.77 x 524.45 million shares with 0.02% deviation
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Quality rural retailer in a guidance-cut reset with compressed cash flow and a withdrawn long-term framework
Trend status
Bearish-to-neutral. Price sits above the short moving averages but far below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, near the 52-week low of $28.36
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tractor Supply is the largest US rural lifestyle retailer, serving farm and ranch, pet, garden, seasonal, and DIY customers through stores, digital sales, Petsense, Allivet, and the newly completed VIP Petcare veterinary network. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built on rural store density, localized assortment, scale purchasing, loyalty data, private and exclusive brands, and a niche retail identity. Switching costs are not high, and big-ticket plus discretionary categories proved cyclical in Q2. | Medium-high |
| Management | Hal Lawton cut 2026 guidance, closed about 75 Petsense stores, trimmed 2027 openings to 85 to 90, completed VIP Petcare, and withdrew the long-term framework pending Q4. The actions are decisive, but credibility is being tested after two consecutive quarterly disappointments. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 net sales grew 4.31% to $15.52 billion with EPS of $2.06, while Q2 2026 sales rose about 2% to $4.54 billion but comparable sales fell 1.5%, net income dropped 16.1%, and TTM free cash flow compressed to roughly $307 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $30.77, TSCO trades near 16.03x TTM EPS, 15.62x forward EPS, 1.02x sales, 6.12x book value, and 52.57x trailing free cash flow, with a 3.12% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The setup is weak. Barchart shows the 100-day moving average near $35.64 and the 200-day near $44.39, both far above price, while the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day averages cluster near $31.05, $30.46, and $30.61, just above the current quote. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include negative comparable traffic, big-ticket and spring-season softness, elevated fuel and freight costs, drought, tariffs, pet-category weakness, compressed free cash flow, lease-adjusted debt, Petsense restructuring, and further guidance risk. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the company reports detailed data and third-party sources agree on key figures. Forecast confidence is low to medium given the guidance cut, withdrawn framework, and uncertain consumer demand. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | TSCO remains a better business than its recent price action, but certainty depends on evidence that comparable sales, margins, and free cash flow can stabilize together. | Low to medium |
TSCO AI stock forecast
The TSCO AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $30.77 and the FY2026 consensus EPS near $1.93. The audited three-year model produced a bearish area near $19, a base area near $29, and a bullish area near $39 before dividends, using EPS growth of -3%, 2%, and 6% and exit multiples of 11x, 14x, and 17x. Analyst targets cluster near a low of $28, an average of $35.52, and a high of $46.
$37 to $41
More likely if comparable sales turn positive on a sustained basis, consumables and pet stabilize, VIP Petcare and Freshpet scale as planned, gross margin holds near 37%, free cash flow recovers, and the market keeps a 16x to 17x multiple on recovering EPS.
$27 to $31
More likely if 2026 guidance lands near the lower end, comparable sales stay near -1% to flat through H2, adjusted EPS lands near $1.90 to $2.00, and the market holds the stock near a 14x to 16x earnings multiple while the new long-term framework stays conservative.
$17 to $21
More likely if traffic stays negative, big-ticket and seasonal demand remain weak, free cash flow stays compressed, lease-adjusted debt becomes a real constraint, Petsense closures drag, or the market re-rates TSCO near 10x to 12x on lower EPS.
TSCO AI technical analysis
TSCO AI technical analysis is cautious as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $30.77 on July 31, 2026, just above its 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages near $31.05, $30.46, and $30.61, but well below the 100-day moving average near $35.64 and the 200-day near $44.39, with a 14-day RSI near 50 and low directional strength. The 52-week low is $28.36 and the 52-week high is $62.89.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $30.77 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market-cap math uses 524.45 million shares outstanding. |
| Immediate support | $28 to $30 | The recent trading zone above the 52-week low of $28.36, where buyers have defended the stock after the guidance cut. |
| Deeper support | $24 to $26 | An interim zone if a close below $28.36 opens the path toward the bearish valuation band. |
| Near resistance | $31 to $32 | The cluster of 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages near $31.05, $30.46, and $30.61 that must be reclaimed with volume for a firmer short-term signal. |
| Higher resistance | $35 to $36 | The 100-day moving average near $35.64, which coincides with a major gap lower from the spring and is a heavy overhead zone. |
| Major overhead | $44 | The 200-day moving average near $44.39. Price is far below this line, so the medium-term trend remains down until it is retaken. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $31.05, 20-day $30.46, 50-day $30.61, 100-day $35.64, 200-day $44.39 | Barchart technical snapshot as of July 31, 2026. Short averages sit just above price while long averages are far overhead. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50, ADX near 18 to 26 | Barchart shows a 14-day RSI near 50 and a weak directional index, indicating a lack of clear trend rather than a confirmed reversal. |
| Volume | Average volume about 10.0 million to 10.3 million shares | Watch whether rebounds occur on heavier volume than pullbacks, which would show buyers stepping in with conviction. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.46, historic volatility near 31% to 34% | Below-market beta, but earnings reports and guidance changes have moved the stock sharply, as seen after Q2. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $28.36 | A durable break below the 52-week low would weaken the base-case setup and shift attention toward the bearish valuation band. |
TSCO AI trading strategy
The TSCO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects price action to comparable sales, traffic, ticket, big-ticket demand, gross margin, freight and fuel costs, tariffs, pet recovery, Petsense closures, store openings, cash flow, debt, and buybacks.
Wait for TSCO to reclaim the $31 to $32 zone on above-average volume and to hold it while evidence mounts that comparable sales, pet trends, and gross margin are stabilizing or improving in H2.
A failed reclaim of the moving-average cluster or a close below $28.36 should reduce setup confidence, especially if guidance or traffic commentary stays weak.
If TSCO tests $28 to $30 while the 2026 outlook remains intact, compare the entry price with updated EPS, free cash flow, dividend coverage, inventory, debt, and the planned new long-term framework before assuming the pullback is attractive.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically cheap if the selloff is tied to comparable sales declines, margin pressure, free cash flow compression, tariff cost swings, or further guidance risk.
Track comparable sales, transaction count versus ticket, consumables and pet performance, VIP Petcare and Freshpet progress, Final Mile deliveries, gross margin, SG&A leverage, tariff refunds, freight and fuel costs, free cash flow, debt and leases, dividends, and buybacks toward the $375 million to $450 million range.
Position sizing should reflect that TSCO is a quality retailer with cyclical and execution risk, not a guaranteed compounder, and that the long-term framework is currently withdrawn.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Tractor Supply for convenient access to rural lifestyle, farm and ranch, livestock, pet, garden, seasonal, and DIY products that are often needs-based and local. The business works when store density, local assortment, service, and replenishment habits make Tractor Supply the default stop for Life Out Here customers.
The moat comes from rural niche focus, more than 2,400 Tractor Supply stores, localized assortment, scale buying, vendor relationships, loyalty data, exclusive brands, and store-led convenience. The moat is moderate rather than unbreakable because customers can still shift spending to home centers, Amazon, Walmart, Costco, local co-ops, farm stores, or online pet retailers.
The thesis fails if comparable traffic stays negative, big-ticket and seasonal demand remain weak, pet recovery stalls, free cash flow stays compressed, leases and debt limit flexibility, Petsense restructuring drags on results, or the market decides TSCO deserves a lower multiple because growth has slowed.
Hal Lawton has run a strategy built around store growth, digital, loyalty, supply chain, pet and animal health adjacencies, dividends, and repurchases. The key test is whether the guidance cut, Petsense closures, and the withdrawn framework lead to a credible Q4 update and stronger free cash flow, or to more surprises.
Rural lifestyle retail benefits from pet ownership, hobby farming, home and land maintenance, e-commerce pickup, animal health, and local convenience. The headwinds are elevated fuel costs, drought, cautious discretionary spending, low housing turnover, tariffs, freight costs, and intense retail competition.
At about 16x EPS and 52x trailing free cash flow, TSCO looks moderate on earnings but expensive on compressed cash flow. The margin of safety depends on whether comparable sales stabilize, free cash flow recovers, and the new long-term framework proves believable.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSCO price | $30.77 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $16.14 billion, verified as $30.77 x 524.45 million shares with 0.02% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net sales | $4.541 billion, up 2.29% year over year | Tractor Supply Q2 2026 earnings release and quarterly income statement | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 comparable sales | Down 1.5%, with positive comps in April and June offset by adverse May conditions | Tractor Supply Q2 2026 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income and EPS | $360.72 million net income, down 16.1%, and $0.69 diluted EPS; adjusted EPS of $0.81 versus consensus near $0.82 | Tractor Supply Q2 2026 earnings release and quarterly income statement | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 gross profit and operating income | Gross profit $1.683 billion, up 2.6%, gross margin 37.1%; GAAP operating income $467.12 million; adjusted operating income $548.3 million | Tractor Supply Q2 2026 earnings call and quarterly income statement | July 23, 2026 |
| Updated 2026 outlook | Net sales growth 2.5% to 3.5%, comparable sales -1% to flat, adjusted operating margin 8.5% to 8.8%, adjusted diluted EPS $1.90 to $2.00 | Tractor Supply Q2 2026 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Strategic actions | Closing about 75 Petsense stores, trimming 2027 openings to 85 to 90, completing the VIP Petcare acquisition, expanding Freshpet to at least 700 stores, and withdrawing the long-term financial framework pending a Q4 2026 update | Tractor Supply Q2 2026 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 results | Net sales $15.524 billion, up 4.31%, net income $1.096 billion, diluted EPS $2.06 | StockAnalysis.com annual financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue $15.751 billion, net income $1.012 billion, EPS $1.92, operating cash flow $1.286 billion, free cash flow $306.98 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash $231.59 million, total debt $6.545 billion, net cash of -$6.313 billion as of June 27, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | July 23, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 16.03x trailing PE, 15.62x forward PE, 1.02x sales, 6.12x book value, 52.57x trailing free cash flow, EV/EBITDA 12.13 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend $0.96, yield 3.12%, 15 years of dividend growth, payout ratio 50.02% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $35.52 across 30 analysts, low $28 and high $46, median $35 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 13 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 15 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 30 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target cuts | J.P. Morgan $48 to $35, Argus $52 to $41, Morgan Stanley $45 to $35, Goldman Sachs $43 to $38, Citi $46 to $37, Guggenheim $50 to $40, Telsey $40 to $38, BofA $33 to $32, Mizuho $32 to $28, Piper Sandler $32 to $31, TD Cowen $38 to $34 | TipRanks via StockAnalysis.com news | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $15.95B with EPS $1.93, FY2027 revenue $16.62B with EPS $2.06 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day moving average $31.05, 20-day $30.46, 50-day $30.61, 100-day $35.64, 200-day $44.39, 14-day RSI near 50, 52-week range $28.36 to $62.89 | Barchart technical analysis and StockAnalysis.com overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 30.02 million shares short, 5.72% of shares outstanding, 2.50 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, valuation assumptions, and technical references as of the stated cutoff date, and they can be wrong if fundamentals, market prices, interest rates, or investor sentiment change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
