TC Energy Corporation research snapshot
TRP AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads TC Energy as a high-quality regulated and contracted natural gas pipeline and power business whose stock has run ahead of its analyst targets. TRP closed at $67.43 on July 31, 2026 on the NYSE, up 43.4% over 52 weeks, with a market capitalization near $70.12 billion and a $2.48 annual dividend yielding 3.68%. The Q2 2026 report, released July 30, 2026, beat estimates with comparable EPS of C$0.94 versus C$0.84 consensus, comparable EBITDA up 12% to C$2.9 billion, and guidance pulled to the upper end of the 2026 comparable EBITDA range of C$11.6 billion to C$11.8 billion. The company sanctioned about C$3 billion of low-risk expansion projects in the first half of 2026, backed by 20-year take-or-pay contracts and weighted average build multiples near 5.8x, and placed roughly C$1.8 billion into service. The offset is a heavy balance sheet with net debt near C$61.7 billion, a dividend payout above 100% of GAAP earnings, and a consensus analyst target of $63.98 that now sits about 5% below the share price. The page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$67.43
Market cap
$70.12 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Quality regulated infrastructure trading above its consensus target
Trend status
Consolidation after a 43% rally, above the 200-day average, below the 20-day and 50-day averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TC Energy is a regulated and contracted energy infrastructure platform across Canadian, US, and Mexico natural gas pipelines plus power generation, moving over 30% of the natural gas used in North America with roughly 94,171 km of pipeline. | High |
| Moat | The moat is the regulated monopoly and long-term contract nature of the pipeline footprint: shippers face few alternatives, new corridors are hard to build, and most revenue is locked by take-or-pay, 20-year, or regulated rate agreements. | High |
| Management | Francois Poirier and CFO Sean O'Donnell are executing a simplification and deleveraging plan: the liquids spin-off (South Bow) in October 2024, a return to dividend growth at C$0.8775 per quarter, about C$3 billion of accretive projects sanctioned in H1 2026, and Bruce Power Unit 3 returned seven months early with a 15% cost reduction. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 comparable EBITDA rose 12% to C$2.9 billion, comparable EPS rose 15% to C$0.94, first-half comparable EBITDA rose 13% to C$6.0 billion, and 2026 comparable EBITDA guidance now points to the upper end of the C$11.6 billion to C$11.8 billion range, with the company on track for its 4.75x debt-to-EBITDA target. | High |
| Valuation | At about 28.65x trailing earnings, 24.92x forward earnings, 6.35x sales, and 17.48x EV/EBITDA, TRP trades well above its own 15x to 20x historical band and its consensus target of $63.98 sits about 5% below the current price. | Medium |
| Technical trend | TRP closed at $67.43 on July 31, 2026, above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages but below the 20-day and 50-day averages, with 14-day RSI near 45 and a low ADX near 9.5, pointing to a consolidation after a 43% rally. | Medium |
| Risk level | The main risks are high leverage with net debt near C$61.7 billion, a dividend payout above 100% of GAAP EPS, rate case and regulatory outcomes, US tariff and trade policy, gas demand destruction from the energy transition, project execution, and refinancing costs in a higher-for-longer rate world. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts, the quote, the balance sheet, and the Q2 2026 figures that were re-fetched on August 2, 2026. Medium for forward return estimates because multiple, rate, FX, and demand assumptions carry real uncertainty. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
TRP AI stock forecast
The TRP AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $67.43 and the FY2026 comparable EPS consensus of about C$3.67, roughly $2.70 in US dollars. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $52 to $60, a base area near $62 to $70, and a bullish area near $74 to $82 over a two to three year horizon, using EPS growth of 2%, 5%, and 8% and exit multiples of 20x, 22.5x, and 25x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$74 to $82
More likely if US natural gas demand stays strong from LNG exports and data center power, rate cases settle favorably, comparable EBITDA lands at the upper end of the C$11.6 billion to C$11.8 billion range, leverage falls to the 4.75x target, and dividend growth resumes at a faster pace.
$62 to $70
More likely if TC Energy compounds comparable EPS at a mid single-digit rate, keeps guidance, executes its about C$3 billion sanctioned project backlog on time and on budget, and the market holds the stock near a 22x to 23x forward multiple.
$52 to $60
More likely if regulatory or rate case setbacks, US tariff or trade frictions, higher-for-longer rates, project cost overruns, slower gas demand, or FX swings compress the multiple and force continued deleveraging, with the consensus target of $63.98 already pointing below the current price.
TRP AI technical analysis
TRP AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $67.43 on July 31, 2026, up 43.4% over 52 weeks but now consolidating below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages while holding above the 100-day and 200-day averages. 14-day RSI near 45 is neutral and 14-day ADX near 9.5 signals a weak trend, with the 52-week high of $71.47 as the key upside reference.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $67.43 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 NYSE close; market cap math uses about 1.042 billion shares from the Q2 2026 report. |
| Near support | $66.20 to $66.40 | The 100-day moving average near $66.21 is the first technical floor under the current price. |
| Next support | $61.00 to $61.10 | The 200-day moving average near $61.06 is the main medium-term support and trend reference. |
| Near resistance | $68.50 to $71.50 | The 50-day moving average near $68.52 and the 52-week high of $71.47 cap the immediate upside. |
| 20-day moving average | $68.58 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $68.58 on July 31, 2026, just above the current price. |
| 50-day moving average | $68.52 | Barchart reported the 50-day moving average near $68.52, a level TRP closed just below. |
| 100-day moving average | $66.21 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $66.21, the closest support below price. |
| 200-day moving average | $61.06 | Barchart reported the 200-day moving average near $61.06, up 27.8% over the period and the key long-term trend line. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45, ADX near 9.5 | 14-day RSI near 45.01 is neutral and 14-day ADX near 9.46 is low, indicating consolidation rather than a strong trend. |
| Volume | About 2.0 to 2.5 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 2.52 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 1.95 million, useful for judging breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Moderate | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 20.8%, moderate for a pipeline utility, with 14-day ATR near 1.64 or about 2.4% of price. |
| Invalidation | Close below $66 | A decisive close below the 100-day moving average near $66.21 would weaken the consolidation; a close below the 200-day near $61.06 would turn the medium-term trend bearish. |
TRP AI trading strategy
The TRP AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching the pipeline and power business. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for TRP to reclaim the 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $68.5 and to build volume on a push toward the 52-week high of $71.47, with the 200-day trend line near $61 still rising.
A daily close back below the 100-day moving average near $66.21 or a failed attempt at the high should trigger a stop and review.
If TRP pulls back toward the $61 to $66 support band from the 200-day and 100-day moving averages without fundamental damage, compare the price reaction with Q3 results, rate case news, and leverage progress before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because high leverage and dividend payout ratios mean a dividend cut or rate setback can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track comparable EBITDA and EPS versus the upper end of the C$11.6 billion to C$11.8 billion guidance, debt-to-EBITDA progress toward 4.75x, dividend coverage and growth, rate case settlements, US LNG and data center demand, and project in-service dates.
Reduce confidence if dividend growth, EPS growth, or buyback plans depend mainly on leverage or one-time items rather than contracted cash flow and organic demand.
Investment research summary
TC Energy earns contracted tolls for moving about 30% of North American natural gas through roughly 94,171 km of pipeline and for producing power, which makes it a regulated and contracted utility-like cash flow machine rather than a commodity price play.
The moat is physical: pipeline corridors are costly and politically hard to build, shippers sign 20-year and take-or-pay deals, and much of the return is set by regulators, so competition and price wars are structurally limited.
The thesis fails if leverage and rising refinancing costs consume the cash flow, rate cases or tariffs cut allowed returns, gas demand stalls faster than expected, projects overrun, or the dividend becomes unsustainable, which would compress the multiple after a 43% run.
Francois Poirier and the leadership team have simplified the portfolio with the South Bow spin-off, returned to dividend growth, sanctioned about C$3 billion of accretive projects in H1 2026, and delivered Bruce Power Unit 3 seven months early and 15% under budget.
North American natural gas sits in a multi-decade demand wave from LNG exports, gas-fired power, and data center electricity, with TC Energy forecasting about 51 Bcf/d of demand growth from 2025 to 2035, but the energy transition is the long-term counterweight.
At about 28.65x trailing earnings and 24.92x forward earnings with a consensus target of $63.98 below the price, the stock already prices in strong execution, leaving little margin of safety unless growth and deleveraging exceed expectations.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TRP price | $67.43 at the July 31, 2026 NYSE close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $70.12 billion, up 43.4% over 52 weeks | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 comparable results | Comparable EPS C$0.94 versus C$0.84 consensus, comparable EBITDA C$2.9 billion up 12% versus C$2.6 billion, comparable earnings C$1.0 billion versus C$0.8 billion | TC Energy Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP results | Net income attributable to common shares C$1.0 billion or C$0.95 per share versus C$0.9 billion or C$0.83 | TC Energy Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Comparable EBITDA expected at the upper end of the C$11.6 billion to C$11.8 billion range; capital expenditures C$6.0 to C$6.5 billion prior to non-controlling interest adjustments or C$5.5 to C$6.0 billion net | TC Energy Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 results | Comparable EBITDA C$6.0 billion up 13% from C$5.3 billion, comparable EPS C$1.93 versus C$1.76, net cash from operations C$4.8 billion versus C$3.5 billion | TC Energy Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Growth projects | About C$3 billion sanctioned in H1 2026 including C$0.7 billion in Q2; Central Virginia Capacity and Clark projects backed by 20-year take-or-pay contracts with a weighted average build multiple near 5.8x; about C$1.8 billion placed in service in H1 | TC Energy Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend C$0.8775 per share, C$3.51 annualized, declared for the quarter ending September 30, 2026 | TC Energy Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents $1.74 billion, total debt $44.96 billion, net debt $43.21 billion under S&P Global classification; the company reported adjusted debt to adjusted comparable EBITDA of 4.8x for 2025, targeting 4.75x | StockAnalysis.com statistics and TC Energy Q2 2026 release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | C$15.239 billion, up 10.66% from C$13.771 billion, with net income of C$3.400 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials (Fiscal.ai) | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM income statement | Revenue $11.05 billion, gross profit $7.68 billion, operating income $4.97 billion, net income $2.45 billion, EBITDA $7.00 billion, EPS $2.35 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow $6.15 billion, capital expenditures $3.26 billion, free cash flow $2.89 billion | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing PE 28.65, forward PE 24.92, PS 6.35, forward PS 4.25, PB 2.66, P/FCF 24.24, EV/EBITDA 17.48, dividend yield 3.68% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $63.98 across 24 analysts, low $57.92 and high $67.04, median $66.99, about 5% below the current price | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 7 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 24 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | RBC raised to C$106 (Outperform), BMO to C$99 (Outperform), TD to C$102 (Hold), Barclays to C$102 (Overweight), Scotiabank to C$105 (Outperform), Morgan Stanley to C$106 (Equal Weight) | StockAnalysis.com news via TipRanks and TheFly | July 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | 32.40 million shares short, 3.24% of shares outstanding, 8.09 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $68.58, 50-day SMA near $68.52, 100-day SMA near $66.21, 200-day SMA near $61.06, 14-day RSI near 45.01, 14-day ADX near 9.46, 14-day historic volatility near 20.8% | Barchart technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue C$16.04 billion with comparable EPS C$3.67, FY2027 revenue C$16.81 billion with comparable EPS C$3.88, FY2026 funds from operations C$7.15 billion | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 31, 2026 |
This TRP AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, earnings coverage, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, rate case decisions, tariff and trade policy, market moves, interest rate changes, or macro conditions.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
