Terreno Realty Corporation research snapshot
TRNO AI stock analysis currently reads Terreno Realty as a well-managed industrial REIT focused on infill properties in six major coastal markets. The portfolio of roughly 294 buildings with 21.9 million square feet serves tenants in logistics, e-commerce, and light industrial sectors. Q1 2026 Core FFO of $0.66 topped consensus by $0.36, and the stock has rallied 18.1% year-to-date to near its 52-week high. The forecast stays scenario-based because industrial REIT valuation depends on lease rates, occupancy, supply-demand in coastal markets, interest rates, acquisition cap rates, and whether the market gives credit for the portfolio quality at the current multiple.
Current price
$69.34
Market cap
$7.37 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality coastal industrial REIT with strong portfolio occupancy, disciplined capital allocation, and rate-sensitive valuation near consensus targets
Trend status
Price at the 52-week high, above all major moving averages, with strong upward momentum and overbought short-term readings
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Terreno Realty owns and operates industrial properties in six major U.S. coastal markets, earning rent from logistics, warehousing, and light-industrial tenants who value port and population-center proximity. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from infill locations with high entry barriers, tenant relationships, local market knowledge, and an acquisition and development pipeline in supply-constrained coastal markets, but tenant switching costs are moderate. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO George M. Chapman founded Terreno in 2010 and has led the company since IPO in 2011. Insider ownership is about 1.9%. The capital allocation strategy favors acquisitions in coastal markets, development, and selective dispositions with a regular dividend. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was approximately $476.4 million with net income of $403.0 million. Q1 2026 FFO of $0.66 per share beat consensus and grew year-over-year, supported by high occupancy and rent growth across the portfolio. | High |
| Valuation | At $69.34, verified inputs imply about 16.95x TTM GAAP EPS, 1.73x book value, about 24.77x forward consensus EPS of $2.80, and a dividend yield near 3.0%. The stock trades near the consensus analyst target of $69.21. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | TRNO was near $69.34, above the 50-day MA near $67.74 and the 200-day MA near $65.92, with RSI near 69.3 and MACD positive at 0.35. The chart is in a strong uptrend with overbought short-term readings. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate because coastal industrial demand is durable, but the equity can be hit by higher rates, supply growth, tenant demand normalization, acquisition cap-rate compression, and single-tenant concentration. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and market data are available. Return confidence is lower because cap rates, supply, and interest rates drive the multiple. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | TRNO screens as a quality industrial REIT, but the current price near consensus targets leaves limited margin of safety for rate or supply-cycle shifts. | Medium |
TRNO AI stock forecast
The TRNO AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a certain price target. Using the July 12, 2026 research cutoff, a $69.34 stock price, FY2026 consensus EPS estimate of $2.80, and a three-year model tested with financial_rigor.py, the calculated nodes are about $98 bullish, $67 base, and $39 bearish before dividends.
$90 to $105
More likely if coastal industrial rent growth remains strong, occupancy stays above 96%, acquisition cap rates hold firm, supply in core markets stays contained, REIT multiples expand as rates fall, and FFO per share grows above 10% annually.
$64 to $72
More likely if TRNO grows FFO at about 5% to 7%, holds occupancy near the mid-96% area, maintains leasing spreads, and the market values the stock around 20x forward EPS near the current zone.
$36 to $44
More likely if industrial demand softens, coastal market supply increases, lease rate growth decelerates, cap rates rise, REIT multiples compress toward 14x earnings, or a recession reduces tenant demand for warehouse space.
TRNO AI technical analysis
TRNO AI technical analysis is bullish as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. The stock was near $69.34 on Investing.com, well above the 200-day simple moving average near $65.92 and the 50-day near $67.74, with RSI near 69.3 and MACD at 0.35. The setup is strongly trending but carries overbought signals on STOCHRSI and CCI, suggesting a pullback or consolidation could follow.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $69.34 | MarketBeat listed TRNO near $69.34, up 18.1% year-to-date from $58.72 at the start of 2026. |
| Near support | $67.70 to $68.69 | The 50-day moving average near $67.74 and the pivot point near $68.69 form the first support band for pullbacks. |
| 50-day moving average | $67.74 | Investing.com listed the 50-day simple moving average as a buy signal. Price was well above it, confirming intermediate uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $65.92 | Investing.com listed the 200-day simple moving average as a buy signal. The gap between price and the 200-day indicates strong momentum. |
| Near resistance | $69.47 to $72.00 | The 52-week high of $69.47 and analyst high target of $79.00 form the resistance zone. The average analyst target near $69.21 sits at the current price level. |
| Momentum | Strongly bullish | Investing.com cited RSI near 69.304, MACD at 0.35, and a Strong Buy technical summary. STOCHRSI at 100 and CCI at 241.4 flag overbought conditions. |
| Volume monitor | About 1.08 million to 1.57 million shares | MarketBeat cited average volume near 1.08 million shares, with recent volume of 1.57 million. Breakouts should be judged against that range. |
| Invalidation | Close below $66 | A decisive close below the $66 area and the 100-day MA near $66.49 would shift the setup from strong uptrend to potential trend damage. |
TRNO AI trading strategy
The TRNO AI trading strategy below is a planning framework for risk control, not personal investment advice. It separates industrial property fundamental evidence from rate-and-multiple-driven price moves.
Watch for TRNO to hold above the 50-day MA near $67.74 and build a base above $69.47, then push toward the analyst high target zone on volume above the recent 1.08 million share reference, confirming with occupancy, leasing spreads, FFO growth, and acquisition cap rates.
Treat a loss of the 50-day MA as a warning. A close below $66 invalidates the trend-following setup.
If TRNO pulls back toward the $64 to $66 area, compare the price action with Treasury yields, industrial REIT sector multiples, leasing spreads, coastal market supply data, and any acquisition or disposition announcements.
Do not average down without a defined stop. A falling multiple plus weakening FFO guidance or rising cap rates is not a normal dip.
Track Core FFO per share, same-property NOI, occupancy, cash leasing spreads, acquisition volume and cap rates, debt maturity and interest coverage, dividend payout ratio, coastal market supply pipeline, and tenant credit quality.
Keep position size tied to scenario evidence. TRNO can look stable at the property level while the equity multiple moves with rates or coastal supply expectations.
Investment research summary
Terreno Realty sells access to well-located industrial space in supply-constrained U.S. coastal markets. Tenants pay for distribution proximity to ports, population centers, and transportation infrastructure.
The moat is strongest in infill location scarcity, local market expertise, acquisition discipline, and a portfolio concentrated in six markets with high barriers to new development. It is weaker at the tenant level because leases are typically 3 to 7 years and tenants can relocate when they expire.
The thesis fails if coastal industrial demand softens, supply grows in core markets, leasing spreads compress, cap rates rise, interest rates stay high, tenants face financial stress, acquisition volumes drop, or the stock loses its premium multiple on any combination of these factors.
CEO George M. Chapman founded Terreno and has led it through a decade of disciplined growth. Capital allocation has focused on acquisitions in high-barrier coastal markets, development, and portfolio optimization with a growing dividend.
Industrial real estate benefits from e-commerce, supply chain restructuring, and port-centric logistics demand, but the post-pandemic normalization has slowed rent growth in some markets and supply has increased. Coastal markets with high land costs and regulatory barriers offer more durable advantages than inland industrial.
At about $69.34, valuation is at consensus targets with limited upside priced in. The margin of safety depends on whether the premium multiple for coastal quality persists, and whether FFO can grow faster than the current consensus of about 7% annually.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TRNO price | $69.34 | MarketBeat TRNO stock quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market cap | $7.37 billion | MarketBeat TRNO key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 106.31 million | MarketBeat TRNO key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Trailing revenue | $476.38 million | MarketBeat TRNO financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Trailing net income | $402.99 million | MarketBeat TRNO financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 FFO per share | $0.66 | MarketBeat TRNO earnings data | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $124.44 million | MarketBeat TRNO earnings data | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 consensus EPS | $2.80 | MarketBeat TRNO earnings forecast | July 12, 2026 |
| Portfolio properties | Approximately 294 buildings, 21.9 million square feet | Terreno Realty corporate website | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23 | MarketBeat TRNO financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Forward annual dividend | $2.08 per share (about 3.0% yield at $69.34) | MarketBeat TRNO dividend data | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 69.304, MACD 0.35, 50-day SMA $67.74, 200-day SMA $65.92 | Investing.com TRNO technical analysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Consensus rating | Moderate Buy, 13 analysts, price target $69.21 | MarketBeat TRNO analyst forecasts | July 12, 2026 |
This TRNO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if interest rates, REIT multiples, coastal industrial demand, supply, operating costs, cap rates, or company execution change.
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