Terreno Realty Corporation research snapshot
TRNO AI stock analysis currently reads Terreno Realty as a well-managed industrial REIT focused on infill properties in six major coastal markets. The portfolio of roughly 316 buildings with 20.6 million square feet plus 46 improved land parcels serves 697 customers in logistics, e-commerce, and light industrial sectors. Q1 2026 Core EPS of $0.66 topped consensus by $0.36, and the stock has rallied 22.1% year-to-date, reaching a 52-week high of $78.94 in mid-July before pulling back to about $71.65. The forecast stays scenario-based because industrial REIT valuation depends on lease rates, occupancy, supply-demand in coastal markets, interest rates, acquisition cap rates, and whether the market keeps the premium multiple at the current price.
Current price
$71.65
Market cap
$7.62 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality coastal industrial REIT with a growing portfolio, strong leasing activity, a BBB+ rated balance sheet, and a premium valuation that trades near consensus targets
Trend status
Price is above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a July rally to a 52-week high of $78.94, then a pullback to the $71.65 area, with RSI cooling from overbought to neutral
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Terreno Realty owns and operates industrial properties in six major U.S. coastal markets, earning rent from logistics, warehousing, and light-industrial tenants who value port and population-center proximity. The portfolio has grown to about 316 buildings and 20.6 million square feet. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from infill locations with high entry barriers, tenant relationships, local market knowledge, and an acquisition and development pipeline in supply-constrained coastal markets, but tenant switching costs are moderate. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO George M. Chapman founded Terreno and has led the company through a decade of disciplined growth. Insider ownership is about 1.9%. Capital allocation favors acquisitions in coastal markets, selective dispositions, and a dividend that has compounded near 11.6% annually since 2011. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was approximately $476.38 million, up 24.5% year over year, with net income of $401.19 million that included large property-sale gains. Q1 2026 EPS of $0.66 beat consensus and revenue of $124.44 million also topped estimates. | High |
| Valuation | At $71.65, verified inputs imply about 17.56x TTM GAAP EPS of $4.08, 1.76x book value near $40.63, about 25.51x forward consensus EPS of $2.81, and a dividend yield near 2.9%. The stock trades close to the consensus analyst target of about $71.71 to $72.35. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | TRNO was near $71.65, above the 50-day MA near $68.04 and the 200-day MA near $63.92, with RSI near 54.5 and a positive longer-term uptrend. The stock spiked to a 52-week high of $78.94 in mid-July and is consolidating below it. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate because coastal industrial demand is durable, but the equity can be hit by higher rates, supply growth, tenant demand normalization, acquisition cap-rate compression, and the premium multiple. Short interest rose 24.5% month over month and covers about 6.24% of shares. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and market data are available. Return confidence is lower because cap rates, supply, and interest rates drive the multiple, and GAAP earnings are amplified by sale gains. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | TRNO screens as a quality industrial REIT, but the current price near consensus targets leaves limited margin of safety for rate or supply-cycle shifts. | Medium |
TRNO AI stock forecast
The TRNO AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a certain price target. Using the August 3, 2026 research cutoff, a $71.65 stock price, FY2026 consensus EPS estimate of $2.81, and a three-year model tested with financial_rigor.py, the calculated nodes are about $90 bullish, $67 base, and $45 bearish before dividends.
$85 to $95
More likely if coastal industrial rent growth remains strong, occupancy stays high, acquisition cap rates hold firm, supply in core markets stays contained, REIT multiples expand as rates fall, leasing activity stays elevated, and FFO per share grows above 10% annually.
$63 to $72
More likely if TRNO grows FFO at about 5% to 7%, holds occupancy near the mid-90s, maintains leasing spreads, and the market values the stock around 20x forward earnings near the current zone.
$40 to $48
More likely if industrial demand softens, coastal market supply increases, lease rate growth decelerates, cap rates rise, the premium multiple compresses toward the market average, or a recession reduces tenant demand for warehouse space.
TRNO AI technical analysis
TRNO AI technical analysis is cautiously bullish as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed near $71.65 on July 31, 2026 on StockAnalysis, above the 200-day simple moving average near $63.92 and the 50-day near $68.04, with RSI near 54.5. The chart shows a strong multi-month uptrend that peaked at a 52-week high of $78.94 in mid-July, followed by a pullback and consolidation.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $71.65 | StockAnalysis listed TRNO near $71.65 at the July 31, 2026 close, up about 22.1% year-to-date from $58.72 at the start of 2026. |
| Near support | $68.04 | The 50-day moving average near $68.04 forms the first support band. The June consolidation low near $63.30 sits below it as a stronger floor. |
| 50-day moving average | $68.04 | StockAnalysis listed the 50-day simple moving average at $68.04. Price was above it, confirming the intermediate uptrend remains intact. |
| 200-day moving average | $63.92 | StockAnalysis listed the 200-day simple moving average at $63.92. The gap between price and the 200-day indicates momentum built over the past year. |
| Near resistance | $75.06 to $78.94 | The mid-July closing high near $75.06 and the 52-week high of $78.94 form the resistance zone. The analyst high target of $91.00 sits well above current price. |
| Momentum | Neutral to positive | StockAnalysis cited RSI near 54.5, below the overbought threshold. The July rally pushed RSI higher, and the current reading reflects a cooling after the pullback. |
| Volume monitor | About 577,800 to 870,000 shares | StockAnalysis cited recent volume near 577,800 shares against a 20-day average of about 870,000. Breakouts should be judged against that average. |
| Invalidation | Close below $64 | A decisive close below the $64 area and the 200-day MA near $63.92 would shift the setup from a strong uptrend to potential trend damage. |
TRNO AI trading strategy
The TRNO AI trading strategy below is a planning framework for risk control, not personal investment advice. It separates industrial property fundamental evidence from rate-and-multiple-driven price moves.
Watch for TRNO to hold above the 50-day MA near $68.04 and reclaim the $75 zone, then push toward the 52-week high near $78.94 on volume above the 870,000 share reference, confirming with occupancy, leasing activity, FFO growth, and acquisition cap rates.
Treat a loss of the 50-day MA as a warning. A close below $64 invalidates the trend-following setup.
If TRNO pulls back toward the $68 to $64 area, compare the price action with Treasury yields, industrial REIT sector multiples, leasing spreads, coastal market supply data, and any acquisition or disposition announcements.
Do not average down without a defined stop. A falling multiple plus weakening FFO guidance or rising cap rates is not a normal dip.
Track Core EPS and FFO per share, same-property NOI, occupancy, cash leasing spreads, acquisition volume and cap rates, debt maturity and interest coverage, dividend payout ratio, coastal market supply pipeline, and tenant credit quality.
Keep position size tied to scenario evidence. TRNO can look stable at the property level while the equity multiple moves with rates or coastal supply expectations.
Investment research summary
Terreno Realty sells access to well-located industrial space in supply-constrained U.S. coastal markets. Tenants pay for distribution proximity to ports, population centers, and transportation infrastructure.
The moat is strongest in infill location scarcity, local market expertise, acquisition discipline, and a portfolio concentrated in six markets with high barriers to new development. It is weaker at the tenant level because leases are typically 3 to 7 years and tenants can relocate when they expire.
The thesis fails if coastal industrial demand softens, supply grows in core markets, leasing spreads compress, cap rates rise, interest rates stay high, tenants face financial stress, the premium multiple erodes, or the stock loses valuation support even as property fundamentals hold.
CEO George M. Chapman founded Terreno and has led it through disciplined growth. Capital allocation has focused on acquisitions in high-barrier coastal markets, selective dispositions, and a dividend that has compounded near 11.6% annually since 2011, supported by a BBB+ rated balance sheet.
Industrial real estate benefits from e-commerce, supply chain restructuring, and port-centric logistics demand, but the post-pandemic normalization has slowed rent growth in some markets and supply has increased. Coastal markets with high land costs and regulatory barriers offer more durable advantages than inland industrial.
At about $71.65, valuation sits near consensus targets with limited upside priced in. The margin of safety depends on whether the premium multiple for coastal quality persists, and whether FFO can grow faster than the consensus of roughly 7% to 8% annually.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TRNO price | $71.65 | StockAnalysis TRNO stock quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market cap | $7.62 billion | StockAnalysis TRNO statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 106.31 million | StockAnalysis TRNO statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Trailing revenue | $490.40 million | StockAnalysis TRNO financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $476.38 million, up 24.5% | StockAnalysis TRNO financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Trailing net income | $422.39 million | StockAnalysis TRNO financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 EPS | $0.66, beating consensus of $0.30 | MarketBeat TRNO earnings data | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $124.44 million | MarketBeat TRNO earnings data | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 consensus EPS | $2.81, with FY2027 at $3.01 | MarketBeat TRNO earnings forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Portfolio | About 316 buildings, 20.6 million square feet, 46 land parcels, 697 customers | Terreno Realty corporate website | August 3, 2026 |
| Debt position | Total debt about $945.10 million, debt-to-equity ratio of 0.22 | StockAnalysis TRNO statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward annual dividend | $2.08 per share (about 2.9% yield at $71.65) | MarketBeat TRNO dividend data | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 54.47, 50-day SMA $68.04, 200-day SMA $63.92 | StockAnalysis TRNO statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Consensus rating | Moderate Buy, 13 analysts, price target $71.71 on MarketBeat; Buy, 19 analysts, target $72.35 on StockAnalysis | MarketBeat TRNO analyst forecasts | August 3, 2026 |
This TRNO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if interest rates, REIT multiples, coastal industrial demand, supply, operating costs, cap rates, or company execution change.
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