STAG Industrial, Inc. research snapshot
STAG AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads STAG Industrial as a well-managed industrial REIT whose operating cycle is stabilizing. The Q2 2026 report, released July 28, 2026, delivered Core FFO per diluted share of $0.65, up 3.2% year over year, Same Store Cash NOI growth of 3.4%, cash leasing spreads of 19.8%, occupancy of 94.5% on the total portfolio and 95.5% on the Operating Portfolio, and a raised full-year 2026 outlook for Core FFO, acquisition volume, same-store occupancy, and cash same-store NOI growth. The stock closed at $38.26 on July 31, 2026 with a market capitalization near $7.43 billion, after rallying to a 52-week high of $42.61 and pulling back. The setup is not a simple buy signal because the stock trades at a premium to net asset value and near the higher end of its historical FFO multiple, while the cycle outlook depends on interest rates, supply, demand, and acquisition execution. The STAG AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges, not a guaranteed price prediction.
Current price
$38.26
Market cap
$7.43 billion verified market cap
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Well-run industrial REIT with strengthening leasing, a raised 2026 Core FFO and acquisition outlook, and a fortified balance sheet, trading at a premium valuation after a July 2026 rally to a 52-week high near $42.61 and a subsequent pullback
Trend status
Corrective pullback below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a July 2026 spike
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | STAG owns about 606 industrial buildings in 41 states with approximately 122.6 million rentable square feet as of June 30, 2026, leased to a diversified tenant base. Industrial properties support distribution, logistics, and light manufacturing, and Q2 2026 delivered 94.5% total portfolio occupancy, 95.5% Operating Portfolio occupancy, cash leasing spreads of 19.8%, and Same Store Cash NOI growth of 3.4%. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from the scale and diversification of a 606-building portfolio, local market knowledge, tenant relationships, and an internal leasing and development platform. However, industrial buildings are largely commoditized at the individual asset level and large tenants can negotiate favorable terms, so the moat is moderate rather than deep. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Bill Crooker and the team delivered another quarter of execution: Q2 2026 Core FFO up 3.2%, 7.6% Cash NOI growth, $287.1 million of acquisitions at a 6.1% cash cap rate, a 35.1 million square foot pipeline worth about $4.0 billion, a refinancing that extended the term loan maturity to January 2032, and raised guidance across FFO, acquisitions, occupancy, and same-store growth. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | STAG has grown revenue from $562.16 million in FY2021 to $845.18 million in FY2025 and $880.59 million over TTM, with TTM net income of $246.87 million and TTM EPS of $1.30. Core FFO per diluted share rose 3.2% in Q2 2026 and 4.8% in the first half, and 2026 Core FFO guidance was raised to $2.61 to $2.65 per share. | High |
| Valuation | At $38.26, financial_rigor.py verifies about 29.45x TTM EPS, 2.03x book value, 8.44x sales, a 4.08% dividend yield, and roughly 14.5x the $2.63 midpoint of 2026 Core FFO guidance. The P/FFO multiple is near the higher end of the industrial REIT peer range, so the valuation offers limited margin of safety. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | STAG closed at $38.26 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $39.41, $40.02, $38.87, $38.43, and $38.32, with 14-day RSI near 39, an oversold 14-day stochastic near 9%, and a bearish -DI at 33.16 versus +DI at 18.87 after the stock pulled back from the $42.61 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate. The main risks are a premium valuation, higher-for-longer interest rates compressing REIT multiples, a delayed industrial demand recovery, new supply, tenant bankruptcies, and acquisition or development execution, partially offset by low leverage at about 5.2x net debt to annualized run-rate adjusted EBITDA and a $4.0 billion acquisition pipeline. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high because the key facts are source-backed and cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com, Yahoo Finance, and the Q2 2026 earnings release and call. Return confidence is moderate because STAG can move with interest rates, supply, industrial demand, and the timing of occupancy recovery. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The investment case rests on improving industrial fundamentals, durable income growth, and low leverage, but the premium valuation means the margin of safety is thinner after the 2026 rally. Certainty improves at lower entry prices that provide a higher dividend yield and more valuation support. | Medium |
STAG AI stock forecast
The STAG AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the equity is sensitive to interest rates, industrial supply and demand, occupancy timing, leasing spreads, acquisition volume, and market multiples. Using the $38.26 price reference and the $2.63 midpoint of 2026 Core FFO guidance, the audited three-year scenario model produces about $53 in a bullish case, $44 in a base case, and $32 in a bearish case before dividends.
$50 to $57 before dividends
More likely if the Fed cuts rates meaningfully, industrial vacancy keeps falling, net absorption stays strong, STAG executes accretive acquisitions and development, same-store occupancy recovers toward 97%, cash same-store NOI grows faster than guided, and the market applies a higher P/FFO multiple near 17x.
$40 to $46 before dividends
More likely if rates remain broadly stable, industrial supply and demand balance, STAG delivers the raised 2026 Core FFO guidance of $2.61 to $2.65, occupancy improves gradually, and the market holds the stock near a 15x forward P/FFO multiple, consistent with the average analyst target of $42.08.
$28 to $34 before dividends
More likely if rates rise again, industrial demand slows, new supply pressures occupancy and rents, STAG acquires or develops at unattractive cap rates, credit losses rise above the reduced 30 basis point guidance, or the broader REIT sector de-rates toward 12x FFO.
STAG AI technical analysis
STAG AI technical analysis is short-term corrective as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. Barchart showed a July 31, 2026 close of $38.26, a 52-week range of $33.72 to $42.61, and 14-day RSI near 39.37 with a 14-day stochastic near 9%, after the stock spiked to a 52-week high of $42.61 in July 2026 and then pulled back below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. The pullback has room to stabilize near the $36 to $37 support zone before the setup turns constructive again.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $38.26 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance both listed the July 31, 2026 close at $38.26, down 0.73% on the day. |
| Immediate support | $36 to $37 | This zone sits below the 200-day moving average near $38.32 and represents a natural consolidation area where the pullback from the $42.61 high may stabilize. |
| Deeper support | $33.72 to $35 | The 52-week low of $33.72 provides a structural floor. A test of this level would represent a full retracement of the 2026 rally. |
| Near resistance | $38.87 to $40.02 | The 50-day moving average near $38.87 and the 20-day moving average near $40.02 are the first overhead hurdles the stock must reclaim. |
| Upper resistance | $42 to $44 | The 52-week high of $42.61 is the major resistance, with analyst targets from Cantor at $40 to Raymond James and Evercore ISI at $44 above it. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $39.41, 20-day $40.02, 50-day $38.87, 100-day $38.43, 200-day $38.32 | Barchart listed the stock below all five moving averages on July 31, 2026, which is a short-term bearish condition after the July spike. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 39, stochastic near 9% | RSI at 39.37 is weak but not deeply oversold, while the 14-day stochastic near 9% suggests short-term oversold conditions that could produce a bounce. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.90 million shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 1.90 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 1.88 million, with elevated volume during the pullback from the high. |
| Volatility | 14-day historic volatility near 33% | Barchart listed 14-day historic volatility near 33.05% and a 14-day ATR of about $0.85, so position sizing should account for larger daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $36, then below $33.72 | A decisive close below $36 would confirm the pullback. A close below the 52-week low of $33.72 would invalidate the medium-term uptrend. |
STAG AI trading strategy
The STAG AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with interest rates, industrial supply and demand, occupancy, leasing spreads, acquisition and development activity, Core FFO growth, and dividend trajectory.
Watch for STAG to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $38.87 and then the 20-day near $40.02 with improving interest-rate expectations, rising net absorption, stable or rising occupancy, and continued cash same-store NOI growth near the 3% to 3.5% guidance.
A failed recovery that closes below $36 should reduce trend confidence, especially if it happens alongside higher-for-longer rates or a renewed industrial demand slowdown.
If STAG pulls back toward the $36 to $37 support zone or the $33.72 to $35 area without fundamental deterioration in occupancy, leasing spreads, credit, or guidance, compare the lower price with forward Core FFO estimates and industrial REIT peer multiples.
Do not treat a pullback as attractive if it reflects structural industrial weakness, rising rates, deteriorating leasing spreads, or tenant credit stress rather than a normal pause.
Track the 4.08% dividend yield relative to the 10-year Treasury yield, the monthly or quarterly dividend coverage against Core FFO and Cash Available for Distribution, occupancy, cash same-store NOI growth, leverage near 5.2x, and the pace of the $4.0 billion acquisition pipeline.
Position sizing should reflect that STAG is a moderately leveraged REIT with a premium valuation, not a guaranteed income stream or a bond substitute.
Investment research summary
Customers (tenants) pay STAG because they need strategically located industrial space for distribution, logistics, warehousing, and light manufacturing. STAG provides this space with triple-net leases that pass many operating costs to tenants, creating relatively predictable cash flow across a 606-building portfolio.
The moat comes from portfolio scale, diversification across tenants and geographies, local market relationships, and an internal leasing and development platform. However, industrial properties are commoditized at the building level, so the moat is moderate rather than wide.
The thesis fails if interest rates stay high, compressing REIT valuations; if the industrial demand recovery stalls or new supply pressures occupancy and rents; if tenant credit quality deteriorates; if STAG overpays for acquisitions or development; or if the premium valuation deflates back toward historical multiples.
Bill Crooker and the team have executed consistently: Q2 2026 Core FFO up 3.2%, cash leasing spreads of 19.8%, 6.1% cash cap rate acquisitions, a refinancing that extended maturities to 2032 at fixed rates near 3.53% through March 2027, and raised 2026 guidance across Core FFO, acquisitions, occupancy, and same-store growth.
Industrial real estate is benefiting from stabilizing supply, with under-construction product near 2% of stock, net absorption of 69 million square feet in Q2 2026 and 111 million in the first half, record e-commerce penetration, onshoring, and data-center-related warehouse demand. The offset is that new supply can still pressure occupancy and rental rates over time.
At $38.26, STAG trades at about 29.45x TTM EPS, 2.03x book value, and roughly 14.5x the 2026 Core FFO guidance midpoint, which is near the higher end of the industrial REIT range. The margin of safety is limited until the price offers a higher dividend yield and more valuation support.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| STAG price reference | $38.26 close on July 31, 2026, down 0.73% on the day | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance STAG quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $7.43 billion reported and $7.43 billion calculated from $38.26 x 194.22 million shares outstanding | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis.com STAG | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 194.22 million shares outstanding, with 192.81 million in the current share class and 192,803,274 common shares issued and outstanding per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | StockAnalysis.com statistics and STAG Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 Core FFO | $0.65 per diluted share, up 3.2% from $0.63; Core FFO of $127.7 million, up 6.0% | STAG Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income | $52.9 million, or $0.28 per basic and diluted share, up from $50.0 million or $0.27 in Q2 2025 | STAG Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| Same Store Cash NOI | $158.8 million in Q2 2026, up 3.4% year over year; $317.6 million in the first half, up 3.9% | STAG Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| Cash NOI and Adjusted EBITDAre | Cash NOI of $172.2 million in Q2 2026, up 6.5%, and Adjusted EBITDAre of $161.7 million, up 6.3% | STAG Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| Occupancy | 94.5% on the total portfolio and 95.5% on the Operating Portfolio as of June 30, 2026, with average same-store occupancy guidance raised to 96.25% to 97.25% | STAG Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Leasing activity | 5.6 million square feet commenced in Q2 2026 with cash rent change of 19.8% and straight-line rent change of 33.7%, and 75.7% retention | STAG Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| Acquisition and development activity | Seven buildings acquired in Q2 2026 for $287.1 million at a 6.1% cash cap rate and 6.8% straight-line cap rate; $367.9 million of acquisitions in the first half; a 35.1 million square foot pipeline worth about $4.0 billion; 2.3 million square feet of development in progress at an expected stabilized yield near 7.1% | STAG Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Core FFO raised to $2.61 to $2.65 per share, acquisition volume raised to $400 million to $700 million, average same-store occupancy raised to 96.25% to 97.25%, cash same-store NOI growth raised to 3% to 3.5%, and credit loss guidance reduced from 50 to 30 basis points | STAG Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Total assets of $7,476,995 thousand, cash and cash equivalents of $65,886 thousand, total equity of $3,709,255 thousand, net debt to annualized run-rate adjusted EBITDA of 5.2x (5.1x including forward equity), and liquidity of $613.7 million as of June 30, 2026 | STAG Q2 2026 earnings release and Form 10-Q | July 28, 2026 |
| Capital markets activity | 3.4 million shares sold on a forward basis at an average of $39.00 for gross proceeds of $131.3 million, with $70 million of forward equity unsettled; $50 million of notes repaid July 1, 2026; $150 million Term Loan A and $200 million Term Loan F refinanced into a $350 million term loan maturing January 16, 2032 at 3.53% fixed through March 2027 and 4.79% thereafter | STAG Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and earnings | TTM revenue of $880.59 million, TTM net income of $246.87 million, and TTM EPS of $1.30 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 29.45x TTM EPS, 8.44x sales, 2.03x book value, and a 4.08% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py, plus a forward PE of 34.68 reported by StockAnalysis.com | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.56 annualized, 4.08% yield, paid monthly in 2025 and at $0.3875 per quarter in 2026, with the Q3 2026 dividend declared July 27, 2026 and payable October 15, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend and STAG Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 7.71 million shares short, 3.97% of shares outstanding, and 4.49 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $42.08 across 12 analysts, low $40 and high $46, with recent actions including Barclays Sell at $41 on July 29, Wells Fargo Hold at $46 on July 16, Raymond James Buy at $44 on June 17, Cantor Fitzgerald Hold at $40 on May 8, and RBC Hold at $42 on May 1 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 52-week range $33.72 to $42.61, 5-day average volume near 1.90 million shares, 5-day moving average $39.41, 20-day $40.02, 50-day $38.87, 100-day $38.43, 200-day $38.32, 14-day RSI 39.37, 14-day stochastic 9.06%, 14-day ADX 21.61, and 14-day historic volatility 33.05% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
This STAG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff and may be wrong if interest rates, industrial supply and demand, company fundamentals, market multiples, or macro conditions change.
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