TPG Inc. research snapshot
TPG AI stock analysis currently reads TPG Inc. as a diversified alternative asset manager whose value rests on raising capital, converting it into fee-bearing AUM, investing well, and realizing performance allocations over long cycles. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified market-cap input used a $43.66 close on July 31, 2026 and about 384.31 million total shares, producing a market capitalization near $16.78 billion. The opportunity is recurring fee-related earnings across Capital, Growth, Impact, Credit, Real Estate, and Market Solutions, with AUM of $306.2 billion at March 31, 2026. The main constraints are private-market marks, fundraising and realization cycles, non-controlling interests, debt, dilution, and a valuation that cannot be read from GAAP EPS alone. The next reported quarter had not been released by the cutoff, so the most recent reported period remains the first quarter of 2026. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$43.66
Market cap
$16.78 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Diversified alternatives manager with recurring-fee potential and material mark, incentive, and cycle sensitivity
Trend status
Neutral short-term setup: the July 31, 2026 close was $43.66, above the 50-day average near $42.09 but below the 200-day average near $49.70, with RSI around 56.
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TPG earns management fees, transaction-related revenue, performance allocations, and investment income by managing alternative-investment strategies for institutional and other clients. The model can create recurring earnings, but realization and mark cycles still matter. | High |
| Moat | Long institutional relationships, specialist investment teams, a multi-strategy platform, fundraising distribution, and an investment track record are meaningful advantages. The moat weakens if performance lags, key talent leaves, or clients prefer lower-cost or larger peers. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jon Winkelried, Executive Chair James Coulter, President Todd Sisitsky, and the investment leadership team are judged by fundraising, underwriting, succession depth, cost discipline, and per-share distributable earnings rather than AUM alone. A CFO transition took effect on July 27, 2026, with Axel André taking over from Jack Weingart, who moved to lead Global Wealth Solutions. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $4.670 billion, up 33.43% year over year. FY2025 net income attributable to TPG was $184.59 million, while Q1 2026 total revenue was $500.006 million with a $1.454 million net loss attributable to TPG because of a capital allocation-based loss and non-controlling interests. | High for reported data |
| Valuation | At $43.66, mechanically calculated TTM GAAP diluted P/E was about 123x, forward P/E was near 14.7x, and P/FCF was about 17.3x using third-party standardized data. TPG also reported $2.63 LTM after-tax distributable earnings per Class A share, a non-GAAP measure that investors commonly monitor but should not equate with GAAP EPS. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 31, 2026 close was $43.66, above the 50-day average near $42.09 but below the 200-day average near $49.70. RSI was around 56 and the 20-day average volume was about 1.78 million shares, so the near-term picture is neutral rather than clearly trending. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include falling private-market marks, slower fundraising or deployment, low realizations, credit stress, incentive-allocation volatility, compensation expense, debt, dilution, regulatory change, key-person dependence, and weak public-market sentiment toward alternatives. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Historical accounting and market-cap arithmetic have high data confidence. Forward returns have lower confidence because they depend on variables not knowable from current filings. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The platform may compound fee economics, but the public-share outcome is more uncertain than a simple revenue-growth narrative suggests. | Medium-low |
TPG AI stock forecast
The TPG AI stock forecast is scenario math, not a promised price. Pineify financial_rigor.py used $43.66, $2.63 of LTM after-tax distributable earnings per Class A share, and three-year assumptions of 2%, 10%, and 15% growth with 12x, 16x, and 20x target multiples. The resulting bear, base, and bull reference values were about $33.50, $56.00, and $80.00. Distributable earnings are a company-defined non-GAAP measure, so these are sensitivity ranges rather than a valuation conclusion.
$75 to $85
More likely if fundraising and deployment remain strong, fee-bearing capital grows, investment performance supports realizations, net accrued performance recovers, credit losses remain contained, and the market awards a higher recurring-earnings multiple.
$50 to $60
More likely if after-tax distributable earnings grow near 10%, fee income remains resilient, realizations normalize gradually, and the market uses a mid-teens multiple for an alternatives platform with mixed marks.
$30 to $36
More likely if marks fall, fundraising slows, fee-bearing conversion disappoints, realizations stay low, credit conditions worsen, compensation or dilution rises, or investors demand a lower multiple.
TPG AI technical analysis
TPG AI technical analysis is dated at the August 2, 2026 cutoff using the July 31, 2026 close of $43.66. The stock closed above its 50-day average near $42.09 and below its 200-day average near $49.70, with RSI around 56 and 20-day average volume near 1.78 million shares. These readings describe a neutral range, so any trade needs fresh confirmation and a review of the August 4 earnings report.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Latest close | $43.66 | July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis, used in market-cap and valuation arithmetic at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| 50-day average | $42.09 | Cross-checked between StockAnalysis and a calculation from 50 daily closes. The stock sits slightly above this level. |
| 200-day average | $49.70 | Reported by StockAnalysis. A sustained move above this average would mark a stronger intermediate-term trend. |
| Dated support | $38.46 to $42 | The June 24, 2026 swing low near $38.46 and the 50-day average near $42.09 are the nearest reference zones. A close below them would require a fresh chart review. |
| Dated resistance | $45.95 to $49.70 | The July 15, 2026 swing high near $45.95 and the 200-day average near $49.70 are the nearest upside references. A move above them is not a trade signal without volume and trend confirmation. |
| Momentum | RSI near 56 | Relative Strength Index around 56 from StockAnalysis, indicating neutral momentum rather than an overbought or oversold reading. |
| Volume | 1.78 million shares average | 20-day average volume from StockAnalysis. The July 31, 2026 session traded about 2.45 million shares. Compare with the current average before judging conviction. |
| Invalidation | Close below refreshed support | This is a framework condition, not a personalized stop-loss instruction. Reassess both price action and fundraising, marks, and distributable-earnings evidence. |
TPG AI trading strategy
The TPG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines current price and volume confirmation with the company metrics that matter most for an alternative manager: fee-related earnings, after-tax distributable earnings, fundraising, deployment, realizations, accrued performance, investment marks, debt, and Class A share count.
Wait for a current chart to establish price above refreshed moving averages and a break above a newly verified resistance area with stronger-than-normal volume. Confirm that the next quarterly release shows stable or improving fee-related earnings and after-tax distributable earnings.
Reassess if price loses refreshed support, fundraising or deployment weakens, credit conditions deteriorate, or performance allocations and marks turn materially negative.
If the stock holds a newly verified support zone after a selloff, compare price action with capital raised, fee-bearing AUM conversion, realizations, net accrued performance, and balance-sheet liquidity before assuming the decline is temporary.
Do not average down merely because the shares look cheaper. Private-market marks, compensation, dilution, or a weaker realization cycle can change the earnings path.
Track fee-related earnings, after-tax distributable earnings, dividend coverage, capital raised, AUM and fee-bearing AUM, deployment, realizations, net accrued performance, cash, debt, and Class A share count.
Size risk for the possibility that non-GAAP measures, investment marks, non-controlling interests, and the public share count can make simple multiples misleading.
Investment research summary
TPG sells access to alternative-investment sourcing, underwriting, portfolio support, and specialized strategies. Clients pay management fees for ongoing capital management and may generate performance-related economics when investments are realized successfully.
Institutional relationships, long-lived funds, specialist teams, brand, fundraising distribution, strategy breadth, and a history of deploying capital can create switching costs and scale advantages. Those advantages are not permanent if performance or talent deteriorates.
The thesis fails if private-market marks decline, fund performance weakens, fundraising slows, capital remains uninvested or fails to become fee-bearing, realizations stay limited, credit losses rise, compensation consumes economics, or public holders face dilution and multiple compression.
Management must prioritize underwriting, fund performance, succession depth, cost control, and per-share value. AUM growth is useful only when it converts into durable economics for Class A shareholders after compensation, taxes, non-controlling interests, and capital needs. The CFO transition that took effect on July 27, 2026 is a succession event worth monitoring.
Institutional demand for private credit, infrastructure, real assets, growth capital, and impact strategies can support alternatives over time. The industry remains cyclical because fundraising, exits, financing costs, and valuation marks depend on market liquidity and risk appetite.
The market price reflects expectations for continued recurring earnings and a durable platform. GAAP EPS is volatile and affected by marks and non-controlling interests, while after-tax distributable earnings are non-GAAP. A margin of safety requires testing both views rather than relying on one headline multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing-price input | $43.66 at July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $16.78 billion calculated from $43.66 x 384.31 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py market-cap verification, cross-checked with StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| AUM | $306.2 billion as of March 31, 2026 | TPG Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Class A and Class B shares | 153,782,054 Class A and 223,852,327 Class B shares at the April 8, 2026 record date | TPG June 3, 2026 Form 8-K annual meeting results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.670 billion | TPG 2025 Form 10-K, cross-checked with StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to TPG | $184.59 million | TPG 2025 Form 10-K, cross-checked with StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 total revenue | $500.006 million | TPG Q1 2026 earnings release and Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income attributable to TPG | $1.454 million loss | TPG Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt | $851.399 million cash and $2.343 billion debt obligations | TPG Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| LTM after-tax distributable earnings | $2.63 per Class A share | TPG Q1 2026 earnings release, non-GAAP measure | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 dividend | $0.59 per Class A share declared; $2.24 per share declared for the LTM period | TPG Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical references | $43.66 close, 50-day average $42.09, 200-day average $49.70, RSI near 56 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote, statistics, and history pages | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenario-based interpretations of available data and may be wrong. TPG results, private-market valuations, fund flows, realizations, reported earnings, and the market price can change materially and without warning. The most recent reported quarter at the August 2, 2026 cutoff was the first quarter of 2026, and the second quarter report was scheduled for August 4, 2026.
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