Tutor Perini Corporation research snapshot
TPC AI stock analysis views Tutor Perini Corporation as a cyclical infrastructure and building contractor that turned profitable in 2025 after several years of losses. The company benefits from large public works programs, a growing backlog, and improving margins, but its earnings are sensitive to project execution, commodity costs, and the construction cycle. At the July 12, 2026 cutoff, the price was $77.39, market cap was about $4.09 billion, and the stock had more than doubled from its 52-week low. The question is whether the forward P/E near 14x leaves room for earnings momentum or already reflects the improvement. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$77.39
Market cap
$4.09 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Turnaround construction play, cyclical upside priced in
Trend status
Strong uptrend from 52-week low of $43.18, near upper half of range
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tutor Perini is a diversified general contractor serving civil, building, and specialty end markets. Revenue is project-based and lumpy, not recurring, which is typical for the industry. Margins have historically been thin but improved sharply in the recent turnaround. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat is moderate and comes from scale, bonding capacity, regulatory barriers, and relationships with public agencies. Large infrastructure projects require proven track records, which limits the competitive set. However, switching costs for customers are low and price competition is intense. | Medium |
| Management | Ronald Tutor, the founder-turned-executive chairman, and CEO Gary Smalley (appointed October 2025) have led a meaningful operational turnaround. Tutor owns roughly 12.6% of shares, aligning economic interests. The key question is whether cost discipline and margin improvement can persist under new leadership. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue in FY2025 was $5.54 billion and TTM revenue is about $5.69 billion. Net income swung from losses in prior years to $80.44 million in FY2025. Free cash flow generation has been strong at about $665 million on a TTM basis, aided by working capital release. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | The stock trades at about 53x trailing GAAP EPS (reflecting low TTM earnings) but only about 14x forward earnings estimates. At 0.77x sales and 12.8x EV/EBITDA, the valuation is not extreme, but the stock has already re-rated significantly from the 2024 lows. | Medium |
| Technical trend | TPC is in a strong uptrend from the $43.18 low, trading above key moving averages. RSI has been in the 60-70 range, momentum is positive, and volume has been above average on up days. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are project cost overruns, fixed-price contract exposure, commodity price inflation, labor shortages, legal disputes (including a recent $174.4 million adverse judgment), cyclical demand in building, and concentration in large public projects. | Medium |
| AI confidence | Medium confidence. Financial filings are clear and analyst coverage exists, but the recent turnaround makes normalized earnings estimates uncertain. Scenario analysis is more informative than point forecasts. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium. TPC has a credible turnaround story and macro tailwinds from US infrastructure spending, but construction stocks are cyclical, project risks are binary on large contracts, and the stock has already doubled. The margin of safety depends on sustained execution and macro conditions. | Low to medium |
TPC AI stock forecast
The TPC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $77.39 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bull case requires sustained infrastructure spending, successful project execution, and margin expansion. The base case assumes steady revenue growth and normal project margins. The bear case assumes project losses, cycle slowdown, or adverse legal outcomes that compress margins and earnings.
$140 to $172
More likely if US infrastructure spending accelerates, Tutor Perini executes its large backlog at improving margins, free cash flow remains strong, and the market assigns a mid-to-high teens earnings multiple on growing EPS.
$85 to $105
More likely if revenue grows at a mid-single-digit pace, margins stabilize near current levels, and the forward P/E stays in the low-to-mid teens range.
$45 to $60
More likely if project cost overruns recur, the legal situation worsens, infrastructure spending slows, or a recession reduces public and private construction demand, pushing the stock back toward single-digit earnings multiples.
TPC AI technical analysis
TPC AI technical analysis starts from the $77.39 close used for this July 12 static page. Public technical sources showed the stock well above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI in the neutral-to-warm zone. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $77.39 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $68 to $72 | Support planning zone around the 50-day moving average area reported by public technical sources. |
| Secondary support | $52 to $55 | The 200-day moving average area. A sustained break below this level would weaken the long-term uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $82 to $85 | The recent swing high area. A clean break above resistance with volume could signal further upside. |
| Major resistance | $95 to $100 | The 52-week high zone around $100 is a major psychological level. This area may attract profit-taking. |
| 50-day moving average | About $69 to $71 | Public sources showed TPC above the 50-day moving average, supporting the short-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | About $53 to $55 | TPC was significantly above its 200-day moving average, confirming the long-term bullish structure. |
| Momentum | RSI near 62, positive MACD | RSI was in neutral territory with room to run. MACD was positive but not overbought. |
TPC AI trading strategy
The TPC AI trading strategy below provides a framework for analysis, not personalized advice. Trend-following and mean-reversion approaches each have different risk profiles for a cyclical stock like TPC. Consider position sizing and stop levels before acting. For creating custom strategies, see the Pine Script Builder or AI Trading Strategy tools.
Look for pullbacks to the 50-day moving average ($68-$72) in the context of the ongoing uptrend. Enter on confirmation of support holding. Trail stops below the 50-day as the trend advances. Use volume to validate breakouts above $82-$85 resistance.
Risk control: Set a stop below $65 (below 50-day MA zone). Reduce position size if RSI exceeds 75 or if price exceeds $95-$100 resistance zone without volume confirmation.
If TPC experiences an overextended move above $90-$95 with RSI above 75, a fade back toward the 50-day MA could be considered. Conversely, a sharp sell-off to the 200-day MA ($53-$55) area with oversold RSI may offer a re-entry for structural bulls.
Risk control: On overbought fades, stop above the recent swing high. On oversold entries, stop below the 200-day MA. Keep position sizes modest given the stock beta of 2.08.
Key data to watch: quarterly backlog trends, gross margin trajectory, free cash flow conversion, legal developments (especially the Philadelphia hotel delay case), and US infrastructure policy. Earnings reports and guidance updates are the primary catalysts.
Risk control: Avoid holding through earnings if the position size is large. TPC tends to have volatile post-earnings moves given the project-level uncertainty in its financials.
Investment research summary
Tutor Perini builds large-scale infrastructure and building projects for public and private clients. Customers pay for construction expertise, bonding capacity, and project management. The business is project-driven, not recurring, with revenue recognized over multi-year construction cycles.
Scale, bonding capacity, and relationships with government agencies provide moderate barriers to entry. Large projects require proven track records, financial stability, and surety bonds that smaller competitors cannot easily obtain. However, customers can switch contractors between projects, and competition from other large contractors is intense.
The thesis fails if: (1) project cost overruns recur, eroding the margin recovery; (2) the $174 million Philadelphia hotel judgment sets a precedent for more claims; (3) US infrastructure spending slows due to budget constraints or recession; (4) labor shortages drive cost inflation that fixed-price contracts cannot absorb; or (5) management makes a large dilutive acquisition.
Ronald Tutor has been the driving force behind the company for decades and owns 12.6% of shares. The 2025 CEO transition to Gary Smalley is a key governance event to monitor. The new team has delivered a clear operational turnaround, but whether the margin improvement is structural or cyclical remains an open question.
The US faces a multi-decade infrastructure reinvestment cycle. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, state-level transportation funding, and mega-projects in transit, bridges, and tunnels provide a strong demand backdrop. Tutor Perinis civil segment is well positioned, but building and specialty segments are more tied to private construction which is sensitive to interest rates and economic growth.
At $77.39, the forward P/E of about 14x and EV/EBITDA of 12.8x are reasonable for a cyclical turnaround, but the stock has already re-rated significantly from the $43 low. The safety margin depends on sustained earnings growth. In a base case with 10% EPS growth and a 14x multiple, the stock could trade near $103 in three years. In a bear case, a 10x multiple on stagnant earnings would suggest $55 or lower.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $77.39 | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Market cap | $4.09 billion | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $5.69 billion | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $78.14 million | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $1.46 | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 14.01 | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Price / Sales (TTM) | 0.77 | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Price / Book | 3.53 | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise Value | $3.88 billion | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| EV / EBITDA | 12.80 | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $802.98 million | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $665.89 million | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.54 billion | Wikipedia | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $80.44 million | Wikipedia | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $1.39 billion | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income | $55.3 million | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst 1-year target | $113.25 | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Beta (5Y) | 2.08 | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Employees | ~7,400 | Wikipedia | July 12, 2026 |
| Forward dividend yield | 0.29% | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
This TPC AI stock analysis page is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on publicly available data and analytical assumptions that may prove incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investment decisions are your own responsibility. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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