Granite Construction Incorporated research snapshot
GVA AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Granite Construction as a high-growth contractor with record backlog whose share price has corrected sharply. The stock closed at $120.97 on July 31, 2026, up 5.26% on the day, with a market capitalization near $5.29 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $120.97 times 43,764,510 shares outstanding per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover, matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. The Q2 2026 report, released July 30, 2026, delivered revenue up 29% to about $1.5 billion, beating the $1.41 billion consensus, gross profit up 20% to $239 million, adjusted net income up $15 million to $101 million, and adjusted EBITDA up $34 million to $186 million, while adjusted EPS of $2.16 missed the $2.33 consensus. GAAP net loss attributable to Granite was $278 million, driven by $363 million of non-operating convertible-note charges that are excluded from adjusted results. Committed and Awarded Projects, or CAP, reached a record $7.4 billion, up $250 million sequentially, with data center CAP climbing from $65 million a year ago to $223 million. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $5.3 billion to $5.5 billion and lifted the 2027 organic growth outlook to above 10% from 6% to 8%. Offsetting the operational strength is a stock that closed below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $126.11, $136.07, $131.74, and $123.83, a Goldman Sachs Sell rating with a $119 target, GAAP leverage that remains elevated with a debt-to-equity ratio near 2.15, and the third-quarter recognition of about $270 million of remaining debt discount related to the convertible-note settlement.
Current price
$120.97
Market cap
$5.29 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Execution and backlog at records with a corrected price, tempered by a bearish trend and a convertible-note settlement overhang
Trend status
Downtrend with the stock below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a correction from the $162 area
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Granite Construction is a U.S. infrastructure contractor and materials producer that builds and rehabilitates roads, bridges, rail, airports, dams, and water infrastructure for public and private clients, with TTM revenue near $4.97 billion and a record CAP balance of about $7.4 billion. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from government contractor relationships, bonding capacity, self-perform capability, aggregate reserves and plants, safety and quality records, a western U.S. branch network, and a growing federal, rail, and data center practice rather than from patents or pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | Kyle Larkin leads as President and CEO. Management delivered 29% revenue growth, a record $7.4 billion CAP, raised 2026 revenue guidance to $5.3 billion to $5.5 billion, lifted the 2027 organic growth outlook to above 10%, secured inaugural credit ratings from Moody's and S&P, completed a $600 million notes offering, and is using cash to settle the 3.75% convertible notes to reduce dilution. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 29% to about $1.5 billion, gross profit rose 20% to $239 million, adjusted net income rose to $101 million, adjusted EBITDA rose to $186 million, and year-to-date operating cash flow reached $142 million versus $5 million a year ago, while GAAP net loss of $278 million reflected $363 million of non-operating convertible-note charges. | High |
| Valuation | At $120.97, GVA has no meaningful trailing GAAP PE because of the TTM loss, a forward PE near 16.35 to 18.25 depending on the estimate basis, price-to-sales near 1.07, price-to-book near 7.03, and price-to-free-cash-flow near 11.22, so the market is paying up for the adjusted earnings recovery rather than GAAP earnings. | Medium |
| Technical trend | GVA closed at $120.97 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $126.11, $136.07, $131.74, and $123.83, with 14-day RSI near 40 and 14-day ADX near 31.97 with negative directional index above positive, confirming a downtrend in progress. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are federal funding uncertainty as the IIJA expires in September, the unpassed Build America 250 successor bill, materials margin pressure from Southeast weather and quarry development, oil cost and diesel volatility, GAAP leverage with debt-to-equity near 2.15 and about $270 million of remaining convertible-note debt discount to recognize in Q3, project execution on a larger backlog, a Goldman Sachs Sell rating, and elevated short interest near 9.3% of shares. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q2 2026 earnings release, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and the earnings call transcript. Lower for forward return estimates because funding, materials margins, execution, and valuation multiples are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction, and the wide $119 to $200 analyst spread shows real disagreement about the outcome. | Medium |
GVA AI stock forecast
The GVA AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $120.97 and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $6.63 rising to $7.36 in FY2027. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $105, a base area near $145, and a bullish area near $185 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth near 8%, 10%, and 14% and exit multiples of 14x, 17x, and 20x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments, and the stock can trade outside them if funding, execution, or margins move faster than expected.
$170 to $200
More likely if the record $7.4 billion CAP burns into revenue as guided, 2027 organic growth stays above 10%, data center CAP keeps scaling well past $223 million, M&A adds the expected $200 million to $400 million, materials margins recover after the weather hits, and the market re-rates adjusted EPS toward the Thompson Davis $200 and Oppenheimer $180 targets.
$130 to $160
More likely if Granite delivers the raised 2026 revenue guidance of $5.3 billion to $5.5 billion with roughly 12% organic and 10% acquisition growth, adjusted margins hold, the convertible-note settlement closes without surprises, and the stock trades near 16x to 18x forward earnings on the rising consensus estimates.
$95 to $120
More likely if public funding stalls after the IIJA expires in September, the Build America 250 bill is delayed or diluted, materials margins stay weak, project execution on a larger backlog slips, the remaining convertible-note debt discount and dilution overhang weigh on GAAP earnings, or the Goldman Sachs Sell view with a $119 target plays out.
GVA AI technical analysis
GVA AI technical analysis is bearish to neutral as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $120.97 on July 31, 2026, up 5.26% on the day, but it remains below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, so the bounce is a correction in a larger downtrend rather than a confirmed reversal. Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $120.12, the 20-day near $126.11, the 50-day near $136.07, the 100-day near $131.74, and the 200-day near $123.83, with 14-day RSI near 40 and 14-day ADX near 31.97 with negative directional index above positive.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $120.97 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 43.76 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $120.12 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $120.12 on July 31, 2026, just below the close, which is a minor near-term anchor after the bounce. |
| Near support | $114 to $117 | The July 30 close near $114.92 and the July 31 open near $116.28 mark the immediate support zone after the earnings-driven swing. |
| Lower support zone | $100 to $110 | A break below $114 could open a move toward the $100 psychological area, which sits below the current 200-day moving average. |
| 52-week low reference | $89.80 | The 52-week low is the ultimate bearish reference if funding, execution, or margins disappoint. |
| Near resistance | $124 to $127 | The 200-day moving average near $123.83 and the 20-day moving average near $126.11 form the first resistance band above price. |
| Higher resistance | $132 to $137 | The 100-day moving average near $131.74 and the 50-day moving average near $136.07 are the next overhead levels a recovery must clear. |
| 52-week high reference | $162.08 | The 52-week high is the bull-case technical target if the correction resolves higher and the funding cycle re-accelerates. |
| Momentum | RSI near 40, ADX near 32 with -DI above +DI | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 40.12 and 14-day ADX near 31.97 with negative directional index near 34.11 above positive near 21.91, confirming a downtrend rather than a range. |
| Volume | About 1.03 million average shares, 2.0 million on July 31 | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 1.03 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 1.03 million, with the July 31 bounce printing about 2.0 million shares, so the up day had participation. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.35, 14-day historical volatility near 38% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 37.76%, so position sizing should account for large swings around earnings, funding news, and the convertible-note settlement. |
| Invalidation | Close below $114 or above $137 | A decisive close below the $114 to $117 support would extend the downtrend toward $100. A close above the 50-day moving average near $136.07 with volume would signal the correction is over. |
GVA AI trading strategy
The GVA AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching the correction. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Wait for GVA to reclaim and hold above the 20-day moving average near $126 and then the 100-day and 50-day averages near $132 to $136 with rising volume, while quarterly results confirm the raised 2026 guidance and margin stability.
A daily close back below $114 to $117, or a failed attempt at the moving-average band with volume, should trigger a stop and review because the stock is still in a confirmed downtrend.
If GVA pulls back toward the $114 to $117 support zone without a funding cut or execution miss, compare the entry price with the base scenario fair value and the rising adjusted EPS path before acting.
Do not treat the record CAP and infrastructure narrative as a stand-alone margin of safety. Require evidence that backlog conversion, margins, and free cash flow track the raised guidance, and keep a maximum loss rule because GAAP leverage and the convertible-note overhang can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track quarterly revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, CAP trends, data center CAP, materials gross margins, debt-to-equity, free cash flow, the IIJA expiry and Build America 250 progress, convertible-note settlement timing, M&A closes, and analyst target changes.
Reduce confidence if backlog growth stalls, materials margins keep missing, leverage rises, GAAP losses persist beyond the convertible-note settlement, or the stock fails to hold support while fundamentals deteriorate.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Granite Construction because federal, state, and municipal agencies plus private owners need reliable contractors with bonding capacity, safety records, self-perform capability, aggregate reserves, and a branch network to deliver large infrastructure projects on time and on budget.
Granite benefits from established government procurement relationships, bonding capacity smaller contractors cannot match, aggregate and asphalt plants, a 100-year operating history, a safety and quality track record, and now a growing federal, rail, and data center site development practice. The moat is practical and relationship-based rather than patent-protected.
The thesis fails if public funding slows after the IIJA expires in September and the Build America 250 bill stalls, project execution on a larger backlog leads to cost overruns, materials margins stay depressed from weather and quarry development, oil and diesel costs squeeze fixed-price work, the convertible-note settlement creates lasting earnings and dilution drag, or the market keeps the stock in its current downtrend.
Kyle Larkin leads as President and CEO with CFO Staci Woolsey. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $5.3 billion to $5.5 billion, lifted the 2027 organic growth outlook to above 10%, secured inaugural Moody's and S&P credit ratings, completed a $600 million notes offering, and elected to settle most of the 3.75% convertible obligation in cash to cut future dilution.
The U.S. is in a multi-year infrastructure investment cycle. The IIJA has funded transportation work, about 60% of it is spent, and the draft Build America 250 Act introduced in May 2026 would shift funding toward formula-based programs and bridges that fit Granite's footprint, while data center site development adds a fast-growing private tailwind.
At about 16x to 18x forward adjusted earnings and near 11x price-to-free-cash-flow, the stock is not priced like a distressed contractor, but the margin of safety improves after the correction from the $162 high because the current price embeds less of the optimistic funding and data center scenario than it did earlier in the year.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GVA price | $120.97 at the July 31, 2026 close, up 5.26% on the day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.29 billion, computed as $120.97 x 43.76 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | Revenue up 29% to about $1.5 billion, gross profit up 20% to $239 million, adjusted net income up $15 million to $101 million, adjusted EBITDA up $34 million to $186 million, adjusted EPS $2.16 versus consensus $2.33 | Granite Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call transcript | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP results | Revenue $1,455.87 million up 29.3%, gross profit $238.77 million, operating income $126.81 million, net loss attributable to Granite of $278.16 million driven by a $359.72 million loss on convertible debt transactions, basic and diluted EPS of negative $6.36 | Granite Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 revenue guidance | Raised to $5.3 billion to $5.5 billion from $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion, reflecting roughly 12% organic growth and about 10% from acquired companies at the midpoint | Granite Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| 2027 organic growth outlook | Raised to above 10% from 6% to 8%, reflecting record CAP visibility and a healthy public and private bid environment | Granite Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment results | Construction revenue up 29% to about $1.2 billion, with $98 million or 11% from acquired businesses and $172 million or 18% organic; materials revenue up $60 million to $248 million led by Warren Paving | Granite Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash flow | Year-to-date cash provided by operating activities of $142 million versus $5 million in the prior year, with the annual operating cash flow target raised from 10% to 11% of revenue | Granite Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Record CAP | Committed and Awarded Projects of $7.4 billion at June 30, 2026, up $249.6 million or 3.5% from March 31, with $7,418.83 million of CAP reported in the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | Granite Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Data center CAP | Data center related CAP increased from $65 million a year ago to $223 million at the end of Q2 2026, with a target of roughly 10% or more of annual revenue | Granite Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Convertible-note settlement and capital structure | Q2 2026 recorded $363 million of non-operating charges tied to the convertible notes, a $600 million senior unsecured notes offering was completed, inaugural credit ratings were secured from Moody's and S&P, and the remaining 3.75% convertible notes were called with about $270 million of debt discount to be recognized in Q3 | Granite Q2 2026 earnings call and Form 10-Q | July 30, 2026 |
| Kenny Seng Construction acquisition | Closed on April 23, 2026 for $164.1 million in cash, adding construction services and materials in Utah, with about $150 million of CAP contribution in Q2 | Granite Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| M&A outlook | Active pipeline with roughly three-quarters self-sourced, expectations of a few more deals closing in Q3 and Q4 2026, and $200 million to $400 million of additional M&A spend expected by year end | Granite Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $877.12 million as of June 30, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (877121000) from the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | Granite Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Short-term investments | $36.85 million as of June 30, 2026 | Granite Q2 2026 Form 10-Q via StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash plus short-term investments | $913.97 million as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt | About $1.696 billion as of June 30, 2026, with $381.01 million current maturities, $1,177.64 million long-term debt, and $137.75 million long-term leases, matching the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | Granite Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Net debt | Negative $782 million, calculated as cash and short-term investments of $913.97 million minus total debt including leases of $1.696 billion | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Total assets and total equity | Total assets of $4,778.88 million and total equity of $805.34 million as of June 30, 2026, with Granite shareholders' equity of $752.75 million, matching the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | Granite Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cross-check | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 43,764,510 shares outstanding as of July 24, 2026, per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover | Granite Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and earnings | Revenue of $4.42 billion, up 10.40% from $4.01 billion, net income of $193 million, and EPS of $3.86, cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com and SEC EDGAR | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and earnings | TTM revenue of $4.97 billion, up 21.8%, with a TTM GAAP net loss to common of $164.90 million and EPS of negative $3.78, reflecting the convertible-note charges in Q2 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Forward PE near 16.35, price-to-sales 1.07, price-to-book 7.03, price-to-free-cash-flow 11.22, PEG 0.91, EV $5.96 billion, EV/EBITDA 11.91, EV/FCF 12.63 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet ratios | Debt-to-equity near 2.15, current ratio 1.01, quick ratio 0.92, return on equity of negative 14.55% on the GAAP TTM loss, return on invested capital 16.94%, return on assets 4.73% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $605.02 million, capital expenditures of $133.12 million, and free cash flow of $471.91 million over TTM, with FY2025 free cash flow of $330.65 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $0.52 paid as $0.13 per quarter, yield 0.43%, ex-dividend date June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote and dividend page | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $5.35 billion with adjusted EPS of $6.63, FY2027 revenue of $5.77 billion with adjusted EPS of $7.36, and FY2026 adjusted EPS range of $5.44 low to $7.48 high | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $171.67 across about five to six analysts, median $177.50, low $119 and high $200, roughly 34% to 42% above the July 31 close depending on the target basis | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 4 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell out of 5 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Thompson Davis $185 to $200 on July 31, Oppenheimer $170 to $180 on July 31, Goldman Sachs $139 to $119 on July 31, and Stephens initiated at $180 with Overweight on June 25 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 3, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs downgrade | Goldman Sachs downgraded GVA to Sell from Neutral in early July 2026 with a price target of $139 from $141, and the stock fell about 9.4% to near $130 on the news before the later target cut to $119 | TheFly and TipRanks via StockAnalysis.com news feed | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 4.05 million shares short, 9.26% of shares outstanding, about 4.07 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and beta | $89.80 to $162.08, beta of 1.35, 52-week price change of +27.22% | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $120.12, 20-day SMA near $126.11, 50-day SMA near $136.07, 100-day SMA near $131.74, 200-day SMA near $123.83, 14-day RSI near 40.12, 14-day ADX near 31.97 with -DI 34.11 above +DI 21.91, 14-day historical volatility near 37.76% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent contract awards | About $50 million PG&E Tiger Creek Regulator Dam Spillway Replacement on July 22, 2026, about $116.9 million West Davis Corridor expansion in Utah on June 24, 2026, and about $19 million Tahoe Cedars water system project on June 3, 2026 | Business Wire releases via StockAnalysis.com news feed | August 3, 2026 |
| Funding backdrop | The IIJA is roughly 60% spent and expires in September 2026, the Build America 250 Act introduced in May 2026 would shift funding toward formula programs and bridges, and management expects an extension or successor funding at elevated levels | Granite Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
This GVA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, funding legislation, legal developments, market moves, or macro conditions.
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