Travel + Leisure Co. research snapshot
TNL AI stock analysis views Travel + Leisure Co. as a scaled vacation-ownership and travel-membership business that generates recurring service fees, membership revenue, and VOI sales across brands such as Club Wyndham, WorldMark, Margaritaville Vacation Club, and RCI. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $74.25 on July 10 and financial_rigor.py calculated a $4.63 billion market capitalization from 62.42 million shares. The favorable case depends on steady VOI sales growth, margin expansion, aggressive share repurchases, and the recurring revenue from 4+ million members. The caution is that TNL carries substantial debt, depends on consumer financing and discretionary travel spending, and faces high vacation-ownership industry churn and competition. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$74.25 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$4.63 billion verified market cap
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Branded vacation-ownership and travel-membership platform with steady cash flow, a sizeable dividend, and aggressive buybacks, offset by high leverage, consumer-credit exposure, and cyclical travel demand
Trend status
Near the upper end of a 52-week range, with positive long-term momentum but near-term consolidation after approaching the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Travel + Leisure sells vacation-ownership interests (VOIs), property management, vacation exchange, travel memberships, and consumer financing through brands like Club Wyndham, WorldMark, Margaritaville Vacation Club, Sports Illustrated Resorts, RCI, and Travel + Leisure GO. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from the scale of the VOI owner base and exchange network, brand recognition across multiple leisure segments, sales and marketing infrastructure, resort inventory, and recurring RCI subscription and exchange fees. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Michael D. Brown and the executive team have emphasized asset-light Fee-for-Service growth, share repurchases, dividends, margin improvement, and expanding the Travel + Membership segment. The key test is debt reduction and sustained VOI sales in a potentially slower consumer environment. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net revenue was about $4.0 billion and net income attributable to shareholders was about $244 million. Q1 2026 net revenue was $961 million, net income was $79 million, and diluted EPS was $1.22, up from $1.07 a year earlier. Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.45, up 31% YoY. | High |
| Valuation | At the July 10 close of $74.25, financial_rigor.py calculated a trailing PE of about 20.68x on $3.59 TTM EPS, a price-to-sales ratio of about 1.14x, an EV/EBITDA of about 14.46x, and a levered free cash flow yield of about 11.65%. The forward PE is lower at about 10.56x, reflecting expected earnings growth. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close of $74.25 was near the upper end of the 52-week range of $55.92 to $81.00. The stock has shown a gradual uptrend over the past year but was consolidating near resistance levels in early July 2026. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated due to high debt levels (net debt well over $5 billion), consumer credit exposure in the vacation-ownership financing portfolio, discretionary travel spending sensitivity to economic conditions, and the capital-intensive nature of VOI inventory development. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical financial data, market-cap math, and valuation ratios are well supported. Return confidence is materially lower because future vacation-owner demand, consumer credit losses, travel spending trends, interest rate exposure, and the market-assigned multiple are inherently uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The recurring revenue base, brand portfolio, and capital-return program are attractive. However, a strong investment conclusion depends on leverage reduction, consumer credit performance, sustained Fee-for-Service growth, and evidence that free cash flow can continue to support the dividend and buyback while reducing debt. | Medium |
TNL AI stock forecast
The TNL AI stock forecast uses transparent three-year scenarios, not a single price prediction. Starting from TTM diluted EPS of $3.59 and the July 10 close of $74.25, the financial_rigor.py model applies 15%, 8%, and negative 5% annual growth assumptions with 22x, 16x, and 10x exit PE multiples. The audited model produced about $120 bullish, $72 base, and $31 bearish values. These outputs are sensitive to assumptions and do not include the $2.40 annual dividend.
$105 to $125
More likely if VOI sales continue to grow above historical trends, the Fee-for-Service model expands margins, credit losses stay low, the Travel and Membership segment accelerates, share repurchases reduce the count meaningfully, and investors award a premium earnings multiple for recurring subscription-like revenue.
$65 to $80
More likely if VOI sales and service fees grow near mid-single digits, consumer credit remains manageable, share buybacks and dividends continue at the current pace, leverage declines gradually, and the market values the company near its current mid-teens cash-flow multiple.
$25 to $40
More likely if a consumer spending downturn reduces VOI sales and tour volume, credit losses increase meaningfully, debt service costs rise with interest rates, timeshare industry regulation tightens, or investors reduce the multiple for the vacation-ownership industry due to cyclical or structural concerns.
TNL AI technical analysis
TNL AI technical analysis uses the latest verified July 10, 2026 close of $74.25. StockAnalysis listed a 52-week range of $55.92 to $81.00, a 50-day moving average near $71.30, and a 200-day moving average near $66.50. The stock traded in a range between about $70 and $78 through the first half of July. Refresh these levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $74.25 | July 10, 2026 closing reference used for the static market-cap and valuation calculations. |
| Near support | $70 to $71 | This zone contains the 50-day moving average. It has been tested multiple times in recent weeks and represents the first level of downside protection. |
| Secondary support | $65 to $67 | This range contains the 200-day moving average near $66.50. A break below this level would be a cautionary signal for the medium-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $76 to $78 | Price has struggled to sustain moves above $76 during recent sessions. This zone needs a decisive high-volume breakout to open the path toward the 52-week high. |
| Major resistance | $79 to $81 | This band contains the 52-week high near $81.00 and represents the most significant upside barrier. A sustained breakout above it would be meaningful. |
| Moving averages | 50-day ~$71.30, 200-day ~$66.50 | The dated close was above both moving averages, suggesting a medium-term uptrend. However, the proximity to the 50-day average calls for monitoring. |
| Momentum | RSI near 55 | Moderately positive RSI suggests room for further upside but not overbought. Not a standalone trading signal. |
| Volume | ~881,000 shares daily average | Average volume of about 881,000 shares per Yahoo Finance. Volume confirmation is needed for any meaningful breakout or breakdown. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 1.18 | Moderate beta indicates that TNL tends to move directionally with the market but with slightly higher amplitude. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $65 | A sustained live close below the secondary support zone near the 200-day average would weaken the medium-term uptrend and requires a fresh fundamental review. |
TNL AI trading strategy
The TNL AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not a personalized recommendation. It combines live chart confirmation with Q2 earnings results due July 22, 2026, VOI sales trends, consumer credit data, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow delivery, buyback execution, debt metrics, and travel industry trends.
Watch for TNL to hold above the $70 to $71 moving-average zone and then reclaim $76 to $78 with stronger live volume while management confirms steady VOI sales growth, improving margins, and continued buyback execution.
Treat a failed breakout below $70 followed by a sustained close below $65 as a reason to reassess the trend, especially if it coincides with weaker consumer spending or reduced guidance.
If TNL pulls back to $65 to $67 without a deterioration in the fundamental thesis, compare the valuation at that level with leverage, free cash flow, dividend yield, and consumer credit trends rather than buying only because the price is lower.
Do not assume a lower price is a bargain if the decline reflects rising credit losses, higher debt costs, declining tour volume, an industry downturn, or a regulatory change.
Track net revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, tour volume, VPG, VOI sales, service fee revenue, credit losses, free cash flow, net debt, share repurchases, dividend declarations, and membership trends across both Vacation Ownership and Travel and Membership segments.
Position size should reflect that TNL is a leverage-intensive business in a cyclical leisure industry, not a defensive or low-volatility holding.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Travel + Leisure for vacation experiences, resort accommodations, travel exchange services, and membership benefits. The business earns from upfront VOI sales, recurring service and membership fees, consumer financing, and travel bookings across a large brand portfolio.
The brands (Club Wyndham, WorldMark, Margaritaville Vacation Club, RCI), the member base of over 4 million, the global resort network, the RCI exchange platform, and the Fee-for-Service sales infrastructure create barriers that are hard to replicate quickly. However, the moat depends on brand perception and consumer willingness to commit to vacation-ownership contracts.
The thesis fails if consumer spending on vacations and timeshare contracts declines, credit losses spike, debt servicing costs strain free cash flow, tour volume growth stalls despite higher marketing spend, the Fee-for-Service conversion disappoints, or the Travel and Membership segment faces competitive pressure from online travel agencies and alternative lodging platforms.
Michael D. Brown and the leadership team are executing an asset-light strategy, expanding Fee-for-Service operations, returning capital through buybacks and dividends, and investing in the Travel and Membership business. Capital allocation discipline, especially regarding debt reduction alongside buybacks, is the key evaluation metric.
The travel and leisure industry continues to benefit from consumer preference for experiences over goods. Vacation ownership has shown resilient demand, and the RCI exchange network benefits from the broader timeshare ecosystem. However, the industry faces consumer credit sensitivity, regulatory scrutiny of timeshare sales practices, and competition from short-term rental and hotel alternatives.
At $74.25 and about 20.68x TTM earnings, the market was pricing in earnings growth and stable free cash flow generation. A margin of safety improves if price declines without damage to the operating thesis, or if debt reduction accelerates while the VOI sales and membership fundamentals remain intact.
The research stance is cautiously constructive. The brand portfolio, recurring service fee revenue, and capital return program support the base case. Debt reduction and consumer credit performance are the most important variables to watch. A stronger case needs sustained leverage improvement and evidence that Free-for-Service growth can support the business model through a consumer cycle.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TNL price, market cap, shares, and valuation snapshot | $74.25 close on July 10, $4.63 billion market cap, 62.42 million shares, PE (TTM) 20.68x, forward PE 10.56x, EV/EBITDA 14.46x, and dividend yield 3.23% | Yahoo Finance TNL statistics and price history | July 12, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $4.63 billion calculated by financial_rigor.py from $74.25 multiplied by 62.42 million shares, matching the reported $4.63 billion within 0.01% | Pineify financial_rigor.py and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net income | $961 million net revenue and $79 million net income attributable to shareholders, with diluted EPS of $1.22 | Travel + Leisure Co. Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | April 22, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted measures | $225 million adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.45, representing 11% and 31% year-over-year growth respectively | Travel + Leisure Co. Q1 2026 earnings release | April 22, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating metrics | Gross VOI sales of $549 million, up 7% YoY. Volume per guest (VPG) of $3,321, up 3% YoY on a 5% increase in tours. $128 million returned to shareholders. | Travel + Leisure Co. Q1 2026 earnings release | April 22, 2026 |
| Cash and liquidity | $254 million cash and cash equivalents and $202 million restricted cash as of March 31, 2026 | Travel + Leisure Co. Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | April 22, 2026 |
| Debt | Total long-term debt of approximately $5.5 billion (implied from enterprise value of $10.14 billion minus market cap of $4.63 billion) plus vacation ownership non-recourse debt | Travel + Leisure Co. Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | April 22, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | Approximately $4.0 billion net revenue and $244 million net income attributable to shareholders | Travel + Leisure Co. 2025 Form 10-K and SEC filings | February 2026 |
| Dividend and buyback | $2.40 per share annual dividend (3.23% yield). $87 million in share repurchases during Q1 2026. Board-authorized share repurchase program active. | Travel + Leisure Co. Q1 2026 earnings release and Yahoo Finance | April 22, 2026 |
| 50-day and 200-day moving averages | 50-day moving average approximately $71.30 and 200-day moving average approximately $66.50 | StockAnalysis TNL statistics | July 12, 2026 |
This TNL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios use available public data and simplified assumptions as of July 12, 2026, may be wrong, and can change with filings, market prices, consumer and travel trends, regulation, and company updates.
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