Travel + Leisure Co. research snapshot
TNL AI stock analysis views Travel + Leisure Co. as a scaled vacation-ownership and travel-membership business that generates recurring service fees, membership revenue, and VOI sales across brands such as Club Wyndham, WorldMark, Margaritaville Vacation Club, Sports Illustrated Resorts, Eddie Bauer Adventure Club, Accor Vacation Club, and RCI. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $76.02 on July 31 and financial_rigor.py calculated a $4.66 billion market capitalization from 61.28 million shares. The company reported a stronger-than-expected Q2 2026 on July 22, raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1,065 million to $1,085 million, and closed the Yes& Vacations acquisition while reaching a definitive agreement for Spinnaker Resorts, adding more than 100,000 owners and 23 resorts. The favorable case depends on continued VOI sales growth, margin expansion, share repurchases, and the recurring revenue from millions of owners and members. The caution is that TNL still carries roughly $3.7 billion of corporate debt plus about $2.0 billion of non-recourse vacation-ownership debt, depends on consumer financing and discretionary travel spending, and faces elevated short interest near 10.7% of shares outstanding. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$76.02 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$4.66 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Branded vacation-ownership and travel-membership platform with a strong Q2 2026 beat, a raised 2026 outlook, and accretive acquisitions that expand the owner base by more than 10%, offset by high leverage, consumer-credit exposure, and cyclical travel demand
Trend status
Trading near the upper end of the 52-week range above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with positive momentum after the July 22 Q2 earnings beat and raised full-year guidance
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Travel + Leisure sells vacation-ownership interests (VOIs), property management, vacation exchange, travel memberships, and consumer financing through brands like Club Wyndham, WorldMark, Margaritaville Vacation Club, Sports Illustrated Resorts, Eddie Bauer Adventure Club, Accor Vacation Club, RCI, and Travel + Leisure GO. Q2 2026 net revenue was $1.06 billion, up 4% year over year. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from the scale of the VOI owner base and exchange network, brand recognition across multiple leisure segments, sales and marketing infrastructure, resort inventory, and recurring RCI subscription and exchange fees. The Yes& and Spinnaker acquisitions added more than 100,000 owners and 23 resorts, including destinations in Maui and Hilton Head. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Michael D. Brown and CFO Erik Hoag delivered a Q2 beat, raised 2026 guidance, closed two immediately accretive acquisitions for a combined $343 million upfront, increased share repurchases by 25%, and reduced leverage by about a quarter turn in the first half of 2026. The key test is integrating the new resorts and sustaining debt reduction. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net revenue was $1.06 billion, up 4% year over year, with net income of $109 million and diluted EPS of $1.72, up 6%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 8% to $269 million and adjusted diluted EPS rose 14% to $1.88. For the first half, adjusted diluted EPS rose 21% to $3.32. FY2025 GAAP net income was $230 million, depressed by $216 million of Resort Optimization inventory write-downs and impairments. | High |
| Valuation | At the July 31 close of $76.02, financial_rigor.py calculated a trailing PE of about 20.8x on $3.65 TTM GAAP EPS, a price-to-sales ratio of about 1.14x, a P/FCF of about 10.5x, and a dividend yield of about 3.2%. StockAnalysis lists a forward PE near 9.3x and an EV/EBITDA of about 14.9x, reflecting the market valuing forward adjusted earnings more favorably than trailing GAAP results. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $76.02 was near the upper end of the 52-week range of $56.66 to $81.00, above the 50-day moving average near $73.32 and the 200-day moving average near $70.27. RSI was near 53.7, a neutral reading, after a strong run that followed the July 22 earnings report. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated due to roughly $3.7 billion of corporate debt and about $2.0 billion of non-recourse vacation-ownership debt, negative stockholders equity of about $1.0 billion, consumer credit exposure in the vacation-ownership financing portfolio, and short interest that rose to about 6.5 million shares, near 10.7% of shares outstanding, by the August cutoff. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical financial data, market-cap math, valuation ratios, and technical statistics are well supported. Return confidence is materially lower because future vacation-owner demand, consumer credit losses, travel spending trends, interest rate exposure, acquisition integration, and the market-assigned multiple are inherently uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The recurring revenue base, brand portfolio, capital-return program, and raised guidance are attractive. However, a strong investment conclusion still depends on leverage reduction, consumer credit performance, successful integration of the two acquired companies, and evidence that free cash flow can continue to support the dividend and buyback while reducing debt. | Medium |
TNL AI stock forecast
The TNL AI stock forecast uses transparent three-year scenarios, not a single price prediction. Starting from TTM diluted EPS of $3.65 and the July 31 close of $76.02, the financial_rigor.py model applies 15%, 8%, and negative 5% annual growth assumptions with 22x, 16x, and 10x exit PE multiples. The audited model produced about $122 bullish, $74 base, and $31 bearish values. These outputs are sensitive to assumptions and do not include the $2.40 annual dividend. The raised 2026 guidance and the accretive acquisitions support the base case, while leverage and consumer-credit risk cap the upside.
$110 to $130
More likely if VOI sales continue to grow above historical trends, the Yes& and Spinnaker integrations add the expected $50 million of annual adjusted EBITDA, the Fee-for-Service model expands margins, credit losses stay low, share repurchases reduce the count meaningfully, and investors award a premium earnings multiple for recurring subscription-like revenue.
$65 to $80
More likely if the company hits the raised 2026 guidance of $1,065 million to $1,085 million of adjusted EBITDA, VOI sales and service fees grow near mid-single digits, consumer credit remains manageable, share buybacks and dividends continue at the current pace, and leverage declines gradually.
$25 to $40
More likely if a consumer spending downturn reduces VOI sales and tour volume, credit losses increase meaningfully, debt service costs rise with interest rates, the acquisition integration disappoints, timeshare industry regulation tightens, or investors reduce the multiple for the vacation-ownership industry due to cyclical or structural concerns.
TNL AI technical analysis
TNL AI technical analysis uses the latest verified July 31, 2026 close of $76.02. StockAnalysis listed a 52-week range of $56.66 to $81.00, a 50-day moving average near $73.32, a 200-day moving average near $70.27, and an RSI near 53.7. The stock has been trending up since mid-2026 and is consolidating below the 52-week high after the Q2 earnings beat. Refresh these levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $76.02 | July 31, 2026 closing reference used for the static market-cap and valuation calculations. |
| Near support | $73 to $74 | This zone contains the 50-day moving average near $73.32. It has acted as support during the recent consolidation and is the first level of downside protection. |
| Secondary support | $70 to $71 | This range contains the 200-day moving average near $70.27. A sustained break below this level would be a cautionary signal for the medium-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $77 to $78 | Price has been building momentum toward this band since the July 22 earnings report. A decisive high-volume breakout would open the path toward the 52-week high. |
| Major resistance | $79 to $81 | This band contains the 52-week high near $81.00 and is the most significant upside barrier. A sustained breakout above it would be a meaningful technical signal. |
| Moving averages | 50-day ~$73.32, 200-day ~$70.27 | The dated close was above both moving averages, indicating a medium-term uptrend. The widening gap between price and the 200-day average calls for monitoring on any pullback. |
| Momentum | RSI near 53.7 | The neutral RSI suggests there is room for further upside without being overbought. RSI is not a standalone trading signal. |
| Volume | ~866,000 shares daily average | Average volume of about 866,000 shares per StockAnalysis, close to the Yahoo figure near 848,000. Volume confirmation is needed for any meaningful breakout or breakdown. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 1.18 | Moderate beta indicates that TNL tends to move directionally with the market but with slightly higher amplitude. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $70 | A sustained live close below the 200-day moving average near $70.27 would weaken the medium-term uptrend and requires a fresh fundamental review. |
TNL AI trading strategy
The TNL AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not a personalized recommendation. It combines live chart confirmation with Q3 2026 earnings due around late October 2026, VOI sales trends, consumer credit data, the Yes& and Spinnaker integrations, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow delivery, buyback execution, debt metrics, and travel industry trends.
Watch for TNL to hold above the $73 to $74 moving-average zone and then reclaim $77 to $78 with stronger live volume while management confirms continued VOI sales growth, the raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1,065 million to $1,085 million, and ongoing buyback execution.
Treat a failed breakout below $73 followed by a sustained close below $70 as a reason to reassess the trend, especially if it coincides with weaker consumer spending, softer VOI sales, or reduced guidance.
If TNL pulls back to $70 to $71 without a deterioration in the fundamental thesis, compare the valuation at that level with leverage, free cash flow, dividend yield, credit trends, and the integration progress of the acquired companies rather than buying only because the price is lower.
Do not assume a lower price is a bargain if the decline reflects rising credit losses, higher debt costs, declining tour volume, disappointing acquisition integration, an industry downturn, or a regulatory change.
Track net revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, gross VOI sales, VPG, tour volume, service fee revenue, credit losses, free cash flow, net debt, share repurchases, dividend declarations, the Yes& and Spinnaker integration milestones, and membership trends across both Vacation Ownership and Travel and Membership segments.
Position size should reflect that TNL is a leverage-intensive business in a cyclical leisure industry with short interest near 10.7% of shares outstanding, not a defensive or low-volatility holding.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Travel + Leisure for vacation experiences, resort accommodations, travel exchange services, and membership benefits. The business earns from upfront VOI sales, recurring service and membership fees, consumer financing, and travel bookings across a large brand portfolio. The Q2 2026 report showed net revenue of $1.06 billion and gross VOI sales of $693 million, up 6% year over year.
The brands (Club Wyndham, WorldMark, Margaritaville Vacation Club, Sports Illustrated Resorts, Eddie Bauer Adventure Club, Accor Vacation Club, RCI), the vacation-ownership owner base, the global resort network, the RCI exchange platform, and the Fee-for-Service sales infrastructure create barriers that are hard to replicate quickly. The Yes& and Spinnaker deals added 23 resorts and more than 100,000 owners, expanding the owner base by more than 10%. The moat still depends on brand perception and consumer willingness to commit to vacation-ownership contracts.
The thesis fails if consumer spending on vacations and timeshare contracts declines, credit losses spike, debt servicing costs strain free cash flow, tour volume growth stalls despite higher marketing spend, the Yes& and Spinnaker integrations disappoint, the Fee-for-Service conversion slows, or the Travel and Membership segment faces competitive pressure from online travel agencies and alternative lodging platforms.
Michael D. Brown and the leadership team raised 2026 guidance after a Q2 beat, closed two immediately accretive acquisitions for $343 million upfront, increased share repurchases by 25% in the first half, reduced leverage by about a quarter turn, and completed a $300 million term securitization in July. Capital allocation discipline, especially integrating the acquisitions and continuing debt reduction alongside buybacks, is the key evaluation metric.
The travel and leisure industry continues to benefit from consumer preference for experiences over goods. Vacation ownership has shown resilient demand, and the RCI exchange network benefits from the broader timeshare ecosystem. However, the industry faces consumer credit sensitivity, regulatory scrutiny of timeshare sales practices, and competition from short-term rental and hotel alternatives.
At $76.02 and about 20.8x trailing GAAP earnings, the market was pricing in forward adjusted earnings growth and stable free cash flow generation, with a forward PE near 9.3x and an EV/EBITDA near 14.9x. A margin of safety improves if price declines without damage to the operating thesis, or if debt reduction and acquisition integration proceed while the VOI sales and membership fundamentals remain intact.
The research stance is cautiously constructive. The Q2 beat, the raised 2026 guidance, the accretive acquisitions, and the capital return program support the base case. Debt reduction, consumer credit performance, and acquisition integration are the most important variables to watch. A stronger case needs sustained leverage improvement and evidence that the expanded owner base converts into recurring Fee-for-Service revenue through a consumer cycle.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TNL price, market cap, shares, and valuation snapshot | $76.02 close on July 31, $4.66 billion market cap, 61.28 million shares, PE (TTM) about 20.8x, forward PE about 9.3x, EV/EBITDA about 14.9x, P/FCF about 10.5x, and dividend yield about 3.2% | StockAnalysis TNL statistics and Yahoo Finance quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $4.66 billion calculated by financial_rigor.py from $76.02 multiplied by 61.28 million shares, matching the reported $4.66 billion within 0.03% | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and net income | $1.06 billion net revenue and $109 million net income attributable to shareholders, with diluted EPS of $1.72 | Travel + Leisure Co. Q2 2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted measures | $269 million adjusted EBITDA, up 8% year over year, and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.88, up 14%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.3% | Travel + Leisure Co. Q2 2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating metrics | Gross VOI sales of $693 million, up 6% year over year. Net VOI sales of $524 million, up 11%. VPG of $3,318, up 2%. Tours of 200,000, up 1%. $125 million returned to shareholders. | Travel + Leisure Co. Q2 2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| First half 2026 results | First half 2026 net revenue of $2.02 billion, up 4%. Net income of $188 million, diluted EPS of $2.94, up 10%. Adjusted EBITDA of $494 million, up 9%. Adjusted diluted EPS of $3.32, up 21%. | Travel + Leisure Co. Q2 2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance raised | Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $1,065 million to $1,085 million. Gross VOI sales guidance of $2.600 billion to $2.675 billion. VPG guidance of $3,325 to $3,375. Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $275 million to $285 million. | Travel + Leisure Co. Q2 2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| Cash, liquidity, and debt | $282 million cash and cash equivalents and $189 million restricted cash as of June 30, 2026. About $3.7 billion of corporate debt and about $2.0 billion of non-recourse vacation-ownership debt. Covenant leverage ratio below 3.2x. | Travel + Leisure Co. Q2 2026 earnings release and Form 10-Q | July 22, 2026 |
| Yes& Vacations and Spinnaker Resorts acquisitions | Combined upfront purchase price of $343 million, plus up to $10 million in contingent payments. Adds 23 resorts and more than 100,000 owners, expanding the vacation-ownership base by more than 10%. Expected to contribute about $50 million of adjusted EBITDA on a full-year basis. | Travel + Leisure Co. acquisition press release | July 15, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | FY2025 net revenue of $4.02 billion and net income attributable to shareholders of $230 million, inclusive of $216 million in Resort Optimization inventory write-downs and impairments. Adjusted EBITDA of $990 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $6.34. | Travel + Leisure Co. Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings release | February 18, 2026 |
| Dividend and buyback | $2.40 per share annual dividend at $0.60 per quarter, about a 3.2% yield. $88 million in share repurchases during Q2 2026 at an average price of $69.50. $745 million remaining in the share repurchase authorization as of June 30, 2026. | Travel + Leisure Co. Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis | July 22, 2026 |
| 50-day and 200-day moving averages | 50-day moving average approximately $73.32 and 200-day moving average approximately $70.27, with an RSI near 53.7 and a 52-week range of $56.66 to $81.00 | StockAnalysis TNL statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and short interest | Strong Buy consensus from 12 analysts with an average price target of $91.60. Short interest of about 6.5 million shares, near 10.7% of shares outstanding, with about 9.8 days to cover. | StockAnalysis TNL statistics and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
This TNL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios use available public data and simplified assumptions as of August 3, 2026, may be wrong, and can change with filings, market prices, consumer and travel trends, acquisition outcomes, regulation, and company updates.
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