Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk research snapshot
TLK AI stock analysis currently reads Telkom Indonesia as Indonesia’s largest integrated telecom operator, with mobile (Telkomsel), fixed broadband (IndiHome), enterprise ICT, wholesale, tower, and data-center exposure, plus a large state ownership stake. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified NYSE ADR quote was $13.91 from July 9, verified market capitalization was about $13.75 billion, TTM P/E was about 14.2x, free cash flow yield was high near 16.5%, and the trailing dividend yield was about 8.8%. The TLK AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction. The core tension is durable connectivity demand and cash generation versus competitive ARPU pressure, lower FY2025 earnings, transformation execution under a new CEO, Indonesian political and currency risk, and a chart that still sits in a long-term downtrend. This page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$13.91
Market cap
$13.75 billion verified market cap
AI score
59 / 100
Rating
High-yield Indonesian telecom leader with earnings pressure and state ownership
Trend status
Long-term downtrend, price near the 52-week low and below major moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Telkom earns recurring revenue from mobile voice and data, fixed broadband, enterprise ICT, wholesale and international connectivity, towers, and digital services across Indonesia. | High |
| Moat | Nationwide network scale, spectrum, fiber, Telkomsel brand, distribution, IndiHome fixed broadband, wholesale assets, and state-backed franchise support the moat, though three-player mobile competition and regulation limit pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | President Director Dian Siswarini, appointed in May 2025 after leading XL Axiata, is pushing a “reinvent the core” agenda, FiberCo or InfraNexia restructuring, data-center growth, and higher profitability under SOE and Danantara ownership. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was IDR 146.74 trillion (about $8.80 billion), down about 2.2% year over year, while attributable net income fell about 26% to IDR 17.49 trillion (about $1.05 billion). Free cash flow rose to about IDR 38.1 trillion. | High |
| Valuation | At $13.91, verified reference math is about 14.2x TTM EPS of $0.98, 1.75x book value, 6.05x free cash flow per share, and an 8.8% trailing dividend yield. The yield is high because the price has fallen and payout pressure is elevated. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The long-term trend was down as of the July 9, 2026 quote snapshot. Price was below the 50-day average near $15.71 and the 200-day average near $18.98, and was holding just above the 52-week low near $13.23. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate-high because mobile and broadband price competition, ARPU declines, SOE and regulatory decisions, IDR volatility, transformation execution, and dividend sustainability can reprice the ADR quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | High for the source-backed operating map, verified market-cap math, and mechanical valuation checks. Lower for multiple expansion, dividend durability, and multi-year price paths. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The connectivity franchise is real and cash generative, but the current setup requires proof that earnings stabilize and that the high yield is supported by sustainable free cash flow rather than temporary payout stretch. | Medium-low |
TLK AI stock forecast
The TLK AI stock forecast uses a three-year earnings and multiple framework around the $13.91 July 9, 2026 quote and about $0.98 TTM ADR EPS. Financial-rigor scenario math produced about $18.7 in the bullish case, $13.5 in the base case, and $7.8 in the bearish case. These are conditional planning ranges, not price promises.
$17 to $20
More likely if mobile and IndiHome ARPU stabilize, competition becomes more rational after industry consolidation, free cash flow remains strong after capex, the dividend is covered without balance-sheet stress, FiberCo or data-center restructuring creates clearer value, and TLK reclaims the 50-day and then the $15 to $16 resistance zone with volume.
$12 to $15
More likely if revenue stays roughly flat, earnings stop falling but do not re-accelerate, the ADR continues to trade near a mid-teens earnings multiple, and the stock oscillates between the year-low support area and the 50-day average.
$7 to $10
More likely if price competition deepens, net income and free cash flow keep contracting, the dividend is cut or perceived as unsustainable, IDR weakens sharply versus the dollar, SOE policy changes capital allocation, or the ADR loses the $13.20 to $13.50 support band and re-rates to a single-digit P/E.
TLK AI technical analysis
TLK AI technical analysis was bearish to defensive as of the July 9, 2026 market snapshot used for this page. FMP listed a $15.71 50-day average and $18.98 200-day average against a $13.91 last sale, with a 52-week range of $13.23 to $23.52. Confirm live data before relying on any chart level.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $13.91 | NYSE ADR last sale from the July 9, 2026 Nasdaq and FMP snapshot used for market-cap verification on the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Support | $13.23 to $13.50 | Near the 52-week low and recent trading floor. A decisive break would weaken the defensive mean-reversion case. |
| Resistance | $14.50 to $15.80 | First overhead band into the 50-day average area. A sustained reclaim of the 50-day would improve the intermediate setup. |
| 50-day moving average | $15.71 | FMP quote snapshot. Price below this average kept the intermediate trend under pressure. |
| 200-day moving average | $18.98 | FMP quote snapshot. This remains a longer-term overhead trend reference and requires live confirmation. |
| Momentum | Mixed; Investing.com RSI snapshot near 61, long-term trend still down | Provider snapshots differed by observation time. Treat RSI as secondary to price versus the 50-day and 200-day averages. |
| Volume | About 0.68M ADRs on the snapshot day; average volume near 1.0M | Use a live chart to assess whether any rebound has confirmation from volume. |
| Volatility | Low beta, event-sensitive EM telecom ADR | FMP listed a 0.13 beta, but earnings, IDR moves, dividend news, Indonesian policy, and U.S. risk appetite can still move the ADR sharply. |
| Invalidation | Close below $13.23 | A decisive close below the cited 52-week low area would invalidate a simple support-hold framework. |
TLK AI trading strategy
The TLK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price confirmation with operating evidence from mobile and fixed broadband ARPU, free cash flow, capex, dividend coverage, transformation milestones, and Indonesia-specific risk monitoring.
Wait for TLK to reclaim the $14.50 to $15.80 resistance band and hold above the 50-day average with improving volume, while quarterly results show ARPU stabilization or better free cash flow after capex.
Reduce setup confidence after a failed breakout or a close back below $13.50. Do not use a technical bounce to ignore a weaker dividend or earnings disclosure.
If TLK revisits the $13.23 to $13.50 support band without a deterioration in free cash flow, net debt, or core mobile and broadband metrics, compare the ADR yield and P/FCF with updated EPS, IDR conditions, and payout commentary.
Set a maximum loss and time horizon before entry. A lower price is not a signal by itself when competition, dividend policy, or SOE capital allocation has changed.
Track Telkomsel subscribers and ARPU, IndiHome fixed broadband ARPU and churn, enterprise ICT and data-center revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow, capex intensity, net debt to EBITDA, dividend payout versus earnings and FCF, FiberCo or InfraNexia milestones, buybacks, IDR/USD, and Indonesian regulatory or SOE policy news.
Treat a high headline yield as a research flag when payout exceeds earnings. Reassess exposure if free cash flow no longer covers the dividend after growth capex.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Telkom Indonesia for essential connectivity and digital infrastructure. The company earns recurring revenue mainly through Telkomsel mobile services and IndiHome fixed broadband, then adds enterprise ICT, wholesale and international services, towers, data centers, and selected digital products.
The moat rests on national network scale, spectrum, fiber assets, brand, distribution, fixed broadband footprint, wholesale infrastructure, and Indonesia’s still-consolidating mobile market. Its durability is tested by price competition from Indosat and XLSmart, regulation, technology investment needs, and execution of asset restructuring.
The thesis fails if ARPU and earnings keep falling, free cash flow cannot support both network investment and the dividend, FiberCo or digital restructuring destroys value, SOE priorities override minority-holder economics, IDR weakness erodes ADR returns, or the market re-rates a high-yield name into a value trap.
Dian Siswarini became President Director in May 2025 with a mandate to refocus on core connectivity profitability, streamline the portfolio, advance InfraNexia or FiberCo plans, and expand data-center and digital infrastructure returns. The capital-allocation test is whether restructuring and disciplined capex restore earnings while preserving cash returns to shareholders. The Government of Indonesia, through Danantara Asset Management, still controls a majority stake of about 52%.
Indonesian data consumption, fixed broadband penetration, enterprise digitalization, and AI-related data-center demand support the long-term industry case. Telecom economics remain capital intensive, and higher traffic does not automatically restore pricing power when competition is intense.
At the cutoff reference, TLK priced a high cash yield and compressed earnings into a mid-teens P/E and low-single-digit P/FCF. The margin of safety depends on free cash flow durability, dividend sustainability, competitive rationality, IDR translation, and whether management can stop the earnings decline without over-investing.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLK ADR quote and market capitalization | $13.91 last sale and $13.75 billion market cap, with $13.91 x 0.9887 billion ADR-equivalent shares calculating to $13.75 billion | FMP quote, Nasdaq info quote, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding and ADR structure | About 98.87 billion ordinary shares, equivalent to roughly 0.99 billion ADRs using the common 100 ordinary shares per ADR conversion | StockAnalysis statistics and FMP income-statement share counts | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | IDR 146.74 trillion revenue (about $8.80 billion) and IDR 17.49 trillion net income (about $1.05 billion), both cross-checked with Macrotrends USD series | FMP income statement and Macrotrends annual series | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM earnings and free cash flow context | TTM net income about $0.96 to $0.98 billion; FY2025 free cash flow about IDR 38.07 trillion, or roughly $2.3 billion, implying about 6.05x P/FCF at $13.91 | FMP quarterly income and cash-flow statements plus financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net debt | FY2025 year-end cash and equivalents about IDR 34.49 trillion, short-term investments about IDR 1.24 trillion, total debt about IDR 75.09 trillion, and net debt about $2.4 billion at the reference FX used for conversion | FMP balance-sheet statement for the year ended December 31, 2025 | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and ownership context | Trailing dividend about $1.22 per ADR and about 8.8% yield at $13.91; company dividend policy historically targets a 60% to 90% payout; government or Danantara ownership about 52% | FMP profile and ratios, Telkom dividend policy page, and company ownership disclosures | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical data snapshot | 50-day average $15.71, 200-day average $18.98, 52-week range $13.23 to $23.52, and last sale $13.91 | FMP quote and Nasdaq stock info | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation and scenario math | 14.2x TTM P/E, 1.75x P/B, 6.05x P/FCF, 8.8% dividend yield; three-year scenario values of about $18.7, $13.5, and $7.8 | Pineify financial_rigor.py using the documented quote, EPS, book value, free cash flow, and growth or multiple inputs | July 12, 2026 |
This TLK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, and not a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if business conditions, financial data, technical trends, currency, interest rates, regulation, SOE policy, or market sentiment change.
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