Bullish case
$37 to $45
More likely if service revenue and EBITDA keep growing, free cash flow stays durable after capex, net debt falls relative to earnings, local currencies stabilize, and AMX clears its 52-week high with volume.
América Móvil, S.A.B. de C.V. research snapshot
AMX AI Stock Analysis
AMX AI stock analysis currently reads América Móvil as a large Latin American connectivity operator with recurring wireless and fixed-line revenue, network scale, and material debt. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified quote was $26.28 from July 8, market capitalization was about $79.10 billion, and the central question was whether service growth and free cash flow can compound faster than currency, competition, and leverage risks. This page uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction and is for informational purposes, not investment advice.
Current price
$26.28
Market cap
$79.10 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Cash-generative Latin American telecom, leverage-sensitive
Trend status
Neutral above the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. América Móvil has long public filings, quarterly operating reports, broad market coverage, and observable quote, debt, and subscriber data.
- bias Check
- The AI bias risk is treating a regional telecom as a simple defensive yield story. This analysis tests the opposing case around leverage, local-currency translation, regulation, capital intensity, and price competition.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium-low. Historical data and quote math are well supported, but future returns depend on execution, foreign exchange, regulation, capital spending, and the price paid.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | América Móvil earns recurring revenue from mobile, fixed-line, broadband, pay TV, enterprise connectivity, data, and hosting services across Latin America and other markets. | High |
| Moat | Scale, spectrum and network assets, the Telcel and Claro brands, distribution, bundled services, and customer switching friction support the franchise, though regulation limits pricing freedom. | Medium-high |
| Management | The Slim family retains control, which aligns economic ownership with long-term outcomes but creates key-person and minority-governance considerations. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was MXN 943.64 billion, up 8.56%. TTM revenue was about $52.61 billion and TTM free cash flow about $9.23 billion in the latest third-party snapshot. | High |
| Valuation | At $26.28, the ADR-equivalent inputs calculate to 16.29x TTM EPS, 8.57x free cash flow per share, 1.50x sales, and a 2.13% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 8 snapshot was neutral: price was close to the 50-day average of $26.30, above the 200-day average of $23.62, and RSI was 52.92. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate-high because net debt, foreign-exchange translation, competitive promotions, regulatory intervention, and network capex can change equity value quickly. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for the source-backed business mapping, current market snapshot, and mechanical valuation checks. Lower for multiple expansion and forward returns. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The business has durable demand, but an investment outcome also depends on currency, debt, regulation, and entry valuation. | Medium-low |
AMX AI stock forecast
AMX AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The AMX AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model around the $26.28 July 8, 2026 quote. Financial-rigor calculations using ADR-equivalent TTM EPS of $1.613 produced approximate target values of $40.8 in the bullish case, $28.8 in the base case, and $15.7 in the bearish case. These are planning scenarios, not price promises.
Base case
$25 to $32
More likely if revenue growth remains steady, cash generation covers investment and shareholder returns, and investors continue to value AMX as a mature telecom rather than a high-growth company.
Bearish case
$14 to $19
More likely if currency weakness, price competition, regulation, higher financing costs, or heavier capex reduce free cash flow and price loses long-term trend support.
AMX AI technical analysis
AMX AI Technical Analysis
AMX AI technical analysis starts from the $26.28 July 8, 2026 quote. The source snapshot placed the 50-day moving average at $26.30, the 200-day moving average at $23.62, RSI at 52.92, and the 52-week range at $16.92 to $28.46. These levels are dated and should be refreshed with live chart data before a trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $26.28 | Latest verified close in the source snapshot, dated July 8, 2026. |
| Near support | $25.50 to $26.00 | A nearby planning zone around the 50-day average. It is not a guaranteed floor. |
| Long-term support | $23.62 | The cited 200-day moving average. A sustained move below it would weaken the longer-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $28.46 | The cited 52-week high. A decisive break with volume would improve momentum evidence. |
| 50-day moving average | $26.30 | StockAnalysis snapshot as of July 8, 2026. Refresh before acting. |
| 200-day moving average | $23.62 | StockAnalysis snapshot as of July 8, 2026. Refresh before acting. |
| Momentum | RSI 52.92 | A neutral reading in the cited snapshot, not an independent buy or sell signal. |
| Volume | 1.18 million 20-day average | The cited average volume is useful for judging whether a breakout has broad participation. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 0.22 | The cited beta was low, but ADR and currency moves can still create event-driven gaps. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $23.62 | This would break the cited 200-day trend reference and requires a new thesis review. |
AMX AI trading strategy
AMX AI Trading Strategy Framework
The AMX AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair any setup with position sizing, a predefined loss limit, live market data, and the next earnings or operating update.
Trend-following setup
Wait for AMX to hold above the 50-day average and break the $28.46 resistance area with volume that is meaningfully above its recent average.
Invalidate the setup if price falls back below the breakout area or closes persistently below the 200-day moving average.
Mean-reversion setup
If AMX tests the $25.50 to $26.00 area without a deterioration in free cash flow, debt, or currency evidence, compare the setup with the next filing and peer pricing data.
Do not average down without a maximum loss, a new review of leverage, and a clear reason the business thesis remains intact.
Fundamental monitor
Track service revenue, EBITDA, free cash flow after capex, net debt, wireless and broadband additions, local-currency performance, and regulatory actions.
Reduce confidence when a price move is not matched by cash-flow evidence or when currency translation obscures operating progress.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
América Móvil sells essential mobile and fixed connectivity, broadband, entertainment, and enterprise services that customers generally pay for on a recurring basis.
Moat
Network scale, spectrum, established brands, distribution, bundled products, and customer switching friction provide advantages, although the regulated telecom market constrains pricing power.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if leverage rises relative to cash flow, currencies weaken, competitors intensify promotions, regulation reduces returns, or capex expands faster than service revenue.
Management
The controlling Slim family creates long-term owner alignment, while investors should independently assess minority protections, succession, capital allocation, and the returns on network investment.
Industry trend
Mobile data, fiber broadband, cloud connectivity, and enterprise digitization support demand, but the sector remains capital intensive and often faces price-sensitive competition.
Valuation and margin of safety
The current multiple is lower than many growth stocks, yet safety depends on free cash flow after capex, net debt, currency translation, and the durability of regulated returns.
Source-backed data
AMX Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMX ADR price | $26.28 at July 8, 2026 close | StockAnalysis market snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $79.10 billion, verified as $26.28 x 3.01 billion ADR-equivalent shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | MXN 943.64 billion, up 8.56% | StockAnalysis financial statements, reported in MXN | July 11, 2026 |
| Revenue cross-check | Macrotrends FY2025 $52.521 billion and StockAnalysis TTM $52.61 billion, a 0.08% deviation around the median | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis, verified with financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| Net income cross-check | Macrotrends FY2025 $4.323 billion versus StockAnalysis TTM $4.85 billion, a 5.75% deviation caused by different reporting periods | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis, discrepancy flagged with financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | MXN 77.384 billion at FY2025, matched across company-report data and StockAnalysis | América Móvil annual report and StockAnalysis | July 11, 2026 |
| Debt and free cash flow | TTM debt $41.35 billion and free cash flow $9.23 billion | StockAnalysis market snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
| Ownership and ADR ratio | Slim family control disclosed in the annual report; each B-share ADS represents 20 B shares | América Móvil 20-F | July 11, 2026 |
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This AMX AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 11, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, currency moves, regulation, or macro conditions change.
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