TKO Group Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
TKO AI stock analysis currently reads TKO Group Holdings as a scarce live sports and entertainment rights platform built around UFC, WWE, IMG, On Location, and PBR. The business has strong media-rights, sponsorship, event, and hospitality tailwinds, but the stock already discounts a large step-up in 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA. At the July 8, 2026 cutoff, TKO traded near $193.58, implied market capitalization was about $37.0 billion using Yahoo implied shares, and the key debate was whether media-rights growth, capital returns, and event expansion can offset high valuation, leverage, governance, and political/event risk. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$193.58
Market cap
About $37.0 billion on an implied-share basis
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Scarce live sports and entertainment IP, strong growth, valuation sensitive
Trend status
Above the 52-week low but below the 50-day average and well off the February high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TKO owns or manages hard-to-replicate live sports and entertainment properties, led by UFC and WWE, with revenue from media rights, live events, sponsorship, licensing, consumer products, hospitality, and agency assets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scarce IP, global fan bases, long media-rights contracts, event production expertise, athlete and performer ecosystems, sponsorship inventory, and cross-promotion across Endeavor/WME relationships. | Medium-high |
| Management | Ari Emanuel and Mark Shapiro have been aggressive capital allocators, expanding the asset base and returning capital, but executive compensation, control structure, related-party perception, and legal headlines require a governance discount. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 revenue was $4.735 billion and net income was $546.2 million. Q1 2026 revenue increased to $1.597 billion, net income was $249.8 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $549.8 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $193.58, the local valuation check produced 71.17x TTM EPS, 4.30x book value, 7.27x revenue per share, and a 1.63% dividend yield, so multiple risk is material. | Medium |
| Technical trend | TKO was trading above the $152.29 52-week low but about 14.7% below the $226.94 52-week high, and the quoted 50-day moving average near $195.85 sat just above the cutoff price. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because valuation, leverage, political/event exposure, litigation and governance headlines, media-rights execution, and talent relations can all change the thesis quickly. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for current filings, company releases, price, market cap math, and basic valuation. Lower for future returns because rights deals, live-event economics, and regulatory or political controversies are path-dependent. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The franchise is unusual, but the stock price assumes the growth plan works and that investors keep paying a premium multiple. | Medium-low |
TKO AI stock forecast
The TKO AI stock forecast is scenario-based around the $193.58 cutoff price. The bullish case requires media-rights economics, UFC and WWE event growth, IMG and hospitality execution, and buybacks to compound per-share value. The base case assumes a strong business but a lower market multiple. The bearish case assumes valuation compression, leverage concerns, or governance and event risks become more important than growth.
$200 to $235
More likely if 2026 revenue stays near or above the $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion company guidance range, adjusted EBITDA tracks the $2.240 billion to $2.290 billion guide, UFC and WWE media-rights demand remains strong, and price reclaims the $198 to $227 resistance zone with better volume.
$120 to $200
More likely if TKO grows earnings but the market normalizes the multiple. The financial_rigor.py base scenario using 10% EPS growth and a 34x terminal P/E produced about $123.10 after three years, while technical support could keep the stock nearer the current range if guidance is met.
$50 to $150
More likely if adjusted EBITDA guidance is cut, debt or buyback execution disappoints, public-event or political controversies damage brand value, litigation risk rises, or price loses the $152 to $193 support band after the cutoff.
TKO AI technical analysis
TKO AI technical analysis starts from the $193.58 July 8, 2026 quote context. Public quote sources placed the 52-week range near $152.29 to $226.94 and Yahoo listed a 50-day moving average near $195.85. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages, volume, and intraday levels should be confirmed in a live chart before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $193.58 | Used as the July 8, 2026 price reference for this static analysis. |
| Near support | $193.34 to $193.58 | MarketWatch showed a July 8 day range low near $193.34, close to the cutoff price. |
| Major support | $152.29 | Yahoo, MarketWatch, and Macrotrends cited a 52-week low near this level. |
| Near resistance | $195.85 to $198.28 | Combines Yahoo 50-day moving average context with MarketWatch day range resistance. |
| Major resistance | $226.94 | Public quote sources cited this as the 52-week high around the cutoff. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $195.85 | The cutoff price was slightly below the quoted 50-day average, so short-term trend confirmation matters. |
| Momentum | Range-bound after a pullback | The stock was above the 52-week low but materially below the February 2026 high. |
| Volume | Average volume near 1.46 million shares | MarketWatch listed average volume near 1.46 million, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Medium-high monitoring priority | A 52-week range from about $152 to $227 and premium valuation make position sizing important. |
| Invalidation | Close below $152.29 | A decisive break below the cited 52-week low would invalidate the long-term support thesis and require fresh review. |
TKO AI trading strategy
The TKO AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It should be paired with position sizing, live chart checks, fresh filings, and a clear stop or invalidation level.
Watch for TKO to reclaim the $195.85 to $198.28 zone, then test whether price can hold above that area and later approach the $226.94 high on volume above the average volume baseline.
A failed reclaim of the 50-day area, a close back below $193, or weaker guidance should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If TKO pulls back without a thesis break, compare price weakness with UFC and WWE media-rights momentum, event attendance, sponsorship growth, debt, buyback pace, and adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Do not average down without a maximum loss level because valuation compression can outweigh fundamental growth.
Track Q2 and full-year 2026 revenue guidance, adjusted EBITDA margin, cash, debt, net leverage, share repurchases, dividend distributions, UFC media-rights execution, WWE live events, IMG, On Location, and PBR integration.
Reduce confidence if growth is driven by one-time event timing, escrow or working-capital effects, or headlines that do not convert into recurring cash flow.
Investment research summary
TKO sells scarce live sports and entertainment attention. Media partners, sponsors, venues, and consumers pay because UFC and WWE events draw loyal audiences that are difficult to recreate from scratch.
The moat is strongest in owned IP, event production, global brands, recurring media rights, and cross-selling sponsorship and hospitality inventory. Switching costs are moderate for fans but higher for broadcasters that need live sports content.
The thesis can fail if investors overpay for the scarcity story, media-rights growth slows, leverage becomes restrictive, political or legal events hurt the brand, or talent and athlete economics pressure margins.
Management has shown deal-making skill and capital-return ambition. The offset is governance risk from control structure, executive pay, related-party optics, and the need to integrate several entertainment and sports assets cleanly.
Live sports rights remain strategically valuable because they resist time-shifting and attract advertisers. TKO also benefits from streaming competition for sports content, global event demand, and fan monetization across venues and digital channels.
The current price implies confidence in 2026 guidance and a durable premium multiple. Margin of safety improves if earnings compound while the multiple holds, or if the stock resets toward a lower valuation before fundamentals weaken.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TKO price | $193.58 quote context on July 8, 2026 | Robinhood quote snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $37.0 billion, verified as $193.58 times 191.13 million implied shares | Yahoo Finance implied shares and financial_rigor.py check | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 191.13 million implied shares from Yahoo; StockAnalysis listed 190.10 million shares | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.735 billion | TKO FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $546.2 million | TKO FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $1.597 billion | TKO Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income | $249.8 million | TKO Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $549.8 million | TKO Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Revenue $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion; adjusted EBITDA $2.240 billion to $2.290 billion | TKO Q1 2026 results release and Yahoo transcript summary | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | About $788.9 million cash and $4.96 billion total debt | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $152.29 to $226.94 | Yahoo Finance and MarketWatch quote snapshots | July 8, 2026 |
| Management | Ari Emanuel is CEO and Executive Chair; Mark Shapiro is President and COO | TKO executive management page | July 8, 2026 |
This TKO AI stock analysis is an informational tool based on public filings, company releases, quote snapshots, and scenario analysis available around the stated cutoff date. It is not investment advice, a price target, or a guarantee of return. Forecast ranges can be wrong, and users should verify current data and consult a qualified adviser before making financial decisions.
