TKO Group Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
TKO AI stock analysis reads TKO Group Holdings as a scarce live sports and entertainment platform built around UFC, WWE, IMG, On Location, PBR, and Zuffa Boxing, with a strong 2026 growth outlook but a rich valuation and a downtrend in the shares. At the August 2, 2026 cutoff, the latest close was $181.81 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $34.56 billion (verified as $181.81 times 190.10 million shares with a 0.01% deviation), and the trailing and forward P/E ratios stood near 67.5x and 47.9x. Q1 2026 revenue grew 26% to $1.597 billion, adjusted EBITDA rose 32% to $549.8 million, and management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion of revenue and $2.240 billion to $2.290 billion of adjusted EBITDA. The main debate is whether media-rights, live-event, partnership, and capital-return momentum can justify the premium multiple, the ~$4.96 billion gross debt load, governance and litigation overhang, and geopolitical exposure, especially with Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 3, 2026. This page is an informational research tool and is not investment advice.
Current price
$181.81
Market cap
$34.56 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Scarce live sports IP with strong 2026 guidance, offset by a rich multiple and a weak technical setup
Trend status
Below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a pullback from the February high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TKO owns or manages scarce live sports and entertainment properties, led by UFC and WWE, with IMG, On Location, PBR, and Zuffa Boxing adding media rights, live events, hospitality, sponsorship, licensing, and consumer products revenue. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scarce IP, global fan bases, long media-rights contracts, event production expertise, sponsorship inventory, and cross-promotion across UFC, WWE, IMG, and related properties. | Medium-high |
| Management | Ariel Emanuel and Mark Shapiro are experienced operators with a strong capital-return program, but executive pay, the controlled-company structure with Endeavor and WME Group, related-party perception, and legal headlines require a governance discount. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $4.735 billion and net income was $546.2 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 26% to $1.597 billion, net income was $249.8 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew 32% to $549.8 million with a 34% margin. | High |
| Valuation | At $181.81, the local valuation check produced about 67.5x trailing P/E, 47.9x forward P/E, 6.8x sales, 4.0x book value, and a 1.72% dividend yield, so multiple risk is material. | Medium |
| Technical trend | TKO closed at $181.81 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 40.7 and 14-day ADX near 20.3, pointing to a weak or range-bound trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because valuation, leverage, Middle East geopolitics, litigation and governance headlines, media-rights execution, talent and fan sentiment, and the upcoming Q2 report can all change the thesis quickly. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for current filings, company releases, price, market cap math, and basic valuation. Lower for future returns because rights deals, live-event economics, World Cup timing, and regulatory or political controversies are path-dependent. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The franchise is unusual and the growth plan is credible, but the stock price assumes sustained execution and a durable premium multiple. | Medium-low |
TKO AI stock forecast
The TKO AI stock forecast is scenario-based around the $181.81 cutoff price. The bullish case requires media-rights momentum, UFC and WWE event growth, World Cup and LA28 hospitality, boxing expansion, and buybacks to compound per-share value. The base case assumes strong growth with some multiple normalization. The bearish case assumes valuation compression, guidance disappointment, or geopolitical and event risks becoming more important than growth. A three-scenario model on 2026 adjusted EPS guidance produced approximate anchors near $222 bull, $138 base, and $79 bear over three years before using wider bands below.
$205 to $240
More likely if 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA track the high end of guidance, UFC Paramount and WWE Netflix/ESPN momentum continues, World Cup 26 hospitality overdelivers, Zuffa Boxing scales, and investors keep paying a premium multiple. This aligns with the analyst consensus target near $232.
$120 to $205
More likely if TKO grows earnings as guided but the market normalizes the multiple. The financial_rigor.py base scenario using forward EPS of about $3.79, 15% annual growth, and a 24x exit P/E produced about $138 after three years, while technical support and analyst targets could keep the stock in a wider band.
$60 to $150
More likely if 2026 guidance is cut, World Cup cash timing or escrow effects fade, Middle East events are disrupted, litigation or governance headlines intensify, or the stock loses the $152 to $179 support zone after the cutoff.
TKO AI technical analysis
TKO AI technical analysis starts from the $181.81 July 31, 2026 close. The stock is below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 40.7 and 14-day ADX near 20.3, indicating weak momentum after a pullback from the February 2026 high. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages, volume, and intraday levels should be confirmed in a live chart before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $181.81 | StockAnalysis.com close on July 31, 2026, the price reference for this static analysis. |
| Near support | $179.00 | StockAnalysis.com showed a July 31 day range low near $179.00, just below the cutoff price. |
| Major support | $152.29 | Yahoo and StockAnalysis both cite the 52-week low near $152.29. |
| Near resistance | $184 to $185 | The 5-day and 20-day moving averages near $184.38 and $185.03 sit just overhead. |
| Next resistance | $193 to $197 | The 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $194.70 and $196.77 form a resistance band. |
| Major resistance | $226.94 | Public quote sources cite $226.94 as the 52-week high around the cutoff. |
| Moving averages | Price below 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, 200-day | Barchart listed 5-day $184.38, 20-day $185.03, 50-day $194.70, 100-day $193.39, and 200-day $196.77, all above the close. |
| Momentum | Weak to neutral | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 40.72 and 14-day ADX near 20.33, so the trend is not strongly directional. |
| Volume | Average volume near 1.0 million to 1.4 million shares | StockAnalysis listed about 1.01 million 20-day average shares and Barchart near 1.04 million, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Medium, with event risk near earnings | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 18.2%, but the August 3, 2026 Q2 report is a scheduled catalyst. |
| Invalidation | Close below $152.29 | A decisive break below the cited 52-week low would invalidate the longer-term support thesis and require fresh review. |
TKO AI trading strategy
The TKO AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be paired with position sizing, live chart checks, fresh filings, the upcoming Q2 2026 report, and a clear stop or invalidation level.
Watch for TKO to reclaim the $184 to $185 area, then test whether price can hold above the $193 to $197 moving-average band and later approach the $226.94 high on above-average volume.
A failed reclaim of the 20-day area, a close back below $179, or weaker-than-expected Q2 results should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If TKO pulls back toward the $152 to $179 zone without a thesis break, compare price weakness with media-rights momentum, live-event demand, World Cup hospitality, debt, buyback pace, and adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Do not average down without a maximum loss level because valuation compression or guidance cuts can outweigh fundamental growth.
Track the August 3, 2026 Q2 report, full-year 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, free cash flow excluding World Cup escrow timing, gross debt, net leverage, buybacks, UFC and WWE media-rights execution, Zuffa Boxing, IMG, On Location, and PBR results.
Reduce confidence if growth depends on one-time event timing, escrow or working-capital effects, or headlines that do not convert into recurring cash flow.
Investment research summary
TKO sells scarce live sports and entertainment attention. Media partners, sponsors, venues, and consumers pay because UFC, WWE, IMG, On Location, and PBR events and rights draw loyal audiences that are hard to recreate from scratch.
The moat is strongest in owned IP, event production, global brands, recurring media-rights contracts, and cross-selling sponsorship and hospitality inventory. Switching costs are moderate for fans but higher for broadcasters that need live sports content.
The thesis can fail if investors overpay for the scarcity story, media-rights growth slows, leverage becomes restrictive, Middle East events are disrupted, litigation or governance headlines hurt the brand, or talent and athlete economics pressure margins.
Management has shown deal-making skill, integration discipline, and capital-return ambition, including a new $1 billion buyback authorization. The offset is governance risk from the control structure, executive pay, related-party optics, and the need to integrate several entertainment and sports assets cleanly.
Live sports rights remain strategically valuable because they resist time-shifting and attract advertisers and streamers. TKO benefits from streaming competition for sports content, global event demand, financial incentive packages, and fan monetization across venues, digital, and hospitality.
The current price implies confidence in 2026 guidance and a durable premium multiple. Margin of safety improves if earnings compound while the multiple holds, or if the stock resets toward a lower valuation before fundamentals weaken.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TKO price | $181.81 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $34.56 billion, verified as $181.81 times 190.10 million shares with a 0.01% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 190.10 million shares with a 73.94 million public Class A share class | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.735 billion, cross-checked across the TKO release and StockAnalysis | TKO FY2025 results release and financial_rigor.py cross-validation | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $546.2 million | TKO FY2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 adjusted EBITDA | $1.585 billion, up 47% from $1.082 billion | TKO FY2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $1.597 billion, up 26% | TKO Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income | $249.8 million, up from $165.5 million | TKO Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $549.8 million, up 32%, with a 34% margin | TKO Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Revenue $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion; adjusted EBITDA $2.240 billion to $2.290 billion, reaffirmed in Q1 2026 | TKO Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | About $788.9 million cash and $4.96 billion total debt as of March 31, 2026; Q1 2026 net leverage near 2.3x | StockAnalysis.com and TKO Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM free cash flow near $1.70 billion; Q1 2026 free cash flow of $674.5 million included about $582 million of net World Cup 26 escrow pre-payments | StockAnalysis.com cash flow and TKO Q1 2026 release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | About 67.5x trailing P/E, 47.9x forward P/E, 6.8x sales, 4.0x book value, 20.4x price-to-free-cash-flow, 1.72% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $152.29 to $226.94 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance quote snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $232.32 across 22 analysts, low $185 and high $275, median $230 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 15 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell out of 22 analysts | StockAnalysis.com recommendation trends | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | BTIG $237, Morgan Stanley $225, Bernstein $240 to $235, TD Cowen $250, Goldman Sachs $220, JPMorgan $225 to $222, Guggenheim $232 to $230, Seaport upgraded to Buy with $210 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts and TipRanks | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 8.29 million shares short, 4.36% of shares outstanding, 13.68% of float, 4.69 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com short selling statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $184.38, 20-day SMA near $185.03, 50-day SMA near $194.70, 100-day SMA near $193.39, 200-day SMA near $196.77, 14-day RSI near 40.72, 14-day ADX near 20.33 | Barchart technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Management | Ariel Emanuel is Executive Chair and CEO; Mark Shapiro is President and COO; Andrew Schleimer is CFO | StockAnalysis.com company profile | August 2, 2026 |
This TKO AI stock analysis is an informational tool based on public filings, company releases, quote snapshots, and scenario analysis available around the stated cutoff date. It is not investment advice, a price target, or a guarantee of return. Forecast ranges can be wrong, and users should verify current data and consult a qualified adviser before making financial decisions.
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