THG plc research snapshot
THG AI stock analysis currently reads THG plc as a simplified consumer group built around THG Beauty and THG Nutrition, with Lookfantastic, Dermstore, Cult Beauty, and Myprotein among its key brands and platforms. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified market snapshot was the July 31, 2026 close of 30.30 GBX per share, giving a market capitalization near £480 million to £497 million depending on the share-count source. FY2025 revenue was £1.718 billion with adjusted EBITDA of £76.6 million, while the June 24, 2026 AGM statement reported H1 revenue growth of about 6.5%, LTM adjusted EBITDA of about £94 million to May 2026 (up 36% year over year), the strongest H1 free cash flow since 2021, and reiterated full-year guidance. Q1 2026 revenue rose 7.0% on a continuing constant-currency basis, the best Q1 growth since 2021. The central question is whether Beauty and Nutrition growth, Myprotein licensing and retail expansion, and cost control can turn into durable cash generation that reduces debt. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
About 30.30p (GBX) per share
Market cap
About £480 million to £497 million
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Improving growth and cash flow, still high leverage and negative returns
Trend status
Weak technical trend: the July 31 close of 30.30p sits below the 50-day average near 31.30p and the 200-day average near 36.87p
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | THG combines online beauty retail and owned brands (Lookfantastic, Dermstore, Cult Beauty) with sports nutrition led by Myprotein. Both segments returned to growth in Q1 2026, but consumers can switch easily and group margins remain modest. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The strongest advantages are brand awareness, category scale, customer data, product discovery, supplier relationships, and a growing Myprotein distribution and licensing footprint. Switching costs are low for consumers, so the moat is useful but not deep. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO Matthew Moulding retains about 28% of issued equity and added shares in late 2025 and early 2026. The capital reduction approved in June 2026, refinancing, and retail and licensing expansion show active capital allocation, while related-party and continuing Ingenuity arrangements still require governance review. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was £1.718 billion and operating profit returned to £8.1 million from a £147.9 million loss. LTM adjusted EBITDA reached about £94 million to May 2026 (up 36% year over year), Q1 2026 grew 7.0% on a continuing constant-currency basis, and the AGM flagged the strongest H1 free cash flow since 2021, although TTM operating income remains negative. | High |
| Valuation | At about 30.3p, the stock trades near 0.29x sales and 1.1x to 1.2x book value. Reported PE is about 7.6x to 9.2x depending on the EPS basis, while price to trailing free cash flow is near 16.9x and market value is roughly £480 million to £497 million. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 31, 2026 close of 30.30p is below the 50-day average near 31.30p and the 200-day average near 36.87p. RSI recovered to 45.78, a neutral reading, and the stock sits near the 52-week low of 26.20p with the 52-week high near 52.55p. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because TTM operating income is negative, return on equity is negative, total debt is high relative to EBITDA, interest cover is very low, the Altman Z-score is negative, and the business faces whey inflation, discounting, VAT uncertainty, related-party transactions, and execution risk in retail and licensing expansion. | High |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for disclosed financials, trading updates, market data, and technical readings tied to dated sources. Confidence is medium for normalized earnings, future cash conversion, and any forecast because the business changed materially after the Ingenuity demerger and disposals. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is low to medium. The operating and cash-flow recovery is credible and H1 2026 was the strongest half for free cash flow since 2021, but leverage, negative returns, and a weak chart still limit certainty. | Low-medium |
THG AI stock forecast
The THG AI stock forecast is a set of conditional ranges, not a price promise. The bullish case needs H1 2026 cash momentum to persist, Myprotein licensing and retail expansion to offset whey costs, VAT recovery, and a reclaim of the 200-day average near 36.9p. The base case assumes growth and cash generation continue while the market keeps a discount for leverage. The bearish case assumes whey inflation, weaker Beauty demand, or cash conversion problems that reverse the recovery and break the 52-week low near 26.2p.
45p to 75p
More likely if FY2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA meet or exceed consensus, H1 free cash flow stays the strongest since 2021, licensed sell-in exceeds 60 million units, the HMRC VAT claim is recovered, and price reclaims the 36.9p 200-day zone with stronger volume.
30p to 50p
More likely if Beauty and Nutrition remain in growth, FY2026 free cash flow reaches the company guidance range of £25 million to £50 million, net debt trends toward £110 million to £130 million, and the Term Loan B keeps trading near or above par, but the market continues to apply a modest multiple because cash conversion is still young.
18p to 30p
More likely if whey inflation and discounting compress Nutrition margins, Beauty growth reverses, inventory absorbs cash, the VAT claim is delayed or rejected, debt reduction stalls, or the share price breaks the 26.2p 52-week low on volume.
THG AI technical analysis
THG AI technical analysis uses dated snapshots because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data. StockAnalysis technical and market data last checked August 2, 2026 reflect the July 31, 2026 close, while the LSE share page provides the 52-week range. Confirm these levels in a live chart before using any trading framework.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | 30.30p (GBX) | The July 31, 2026 close was 30.30p, down 2.26% on the day, with a session range of 30.28p to 31.18p. Other quote providers can lag or differ, so the exact last close should be confirmed. |
| Near support | 30.28p to 30p zone | The July 31 session low was 30.28p, so round support near 30p matters for short-term structure. |
| Major support | About 26.20p | The LSE share page shows a 52-week low of 26.20p set on September 9, 2025. |
| Near resistance | 31.18p to 31.30p | The July 31 session high was 31.18p and the 50-day moving average sits near 31.30p, just above it. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near 31.30p; 200-day near 36.87p | Both simple moving averages sit above the July 31 close, so the trend stays weak until price reclaims them. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) near 45.78 | A neutral reading that has recovered from the oversold zone seen in early July 2026. |
| Volume | About 2.71 million shares average over 20 days | StockAnalysis average volume snapshot. Use volume expansion to test any breakout. |
| Volatility | Elevated; 5-year beta 2.46 | The stock is more volatile than the market, and the 52-week range of 26.20p to 52.55p confirms wide swings. |
| Invalidation | Decisive close below 26.20p | A sustained break below the cited 52-week low would invalidate the near-term support thesis and require fresh review. |
THG AI trading strategy
The THG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Use position sizing, live price checks, current filings, and a predefined invalidation level before acting on any setup.
Watch for a reclaim of the 31.30p to 36.87p moving-average band, followed by a hold above it with improving volume and no downgrade to FY2026 guidance. Compare price strength with Beauty growth, Nutrition margin, cash generation, and the Term Loan B trading level.
A failed reclaim, a close below 30p, or weaker guidance invalidates the near-term trend setup. Do not treat an isolated price spike as confirmation.
If THG revisits the 26.2p to 30p area without a new fundamental break, wait for stabilization and check whether the fall is accompanied by weaker orders, margin pressure, inventory growth, or debt stress.
Do not average down solely because the share price is low. A close below 26.2p or a deterioration in liquidity should stop the setup and trigger a thesis review.
Track quarterly revenue by Beauty and Nutrition, active customers and orders, gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, inventory, cash, debt, interest expense, licensed units, retail doors, the HMRC claim, equity issuance, and related-party service costs.
Refresh the scenarios after results, guidance changes, financing actions, material VAT news, major supplier or commodity changes, and the registration of the approved capital reduction.
Investment research summary
THG sells discovery, convenience, and branded consumer products through digital commerce and growing offline channels. Beauty monetizes access to more than 1,000 third-party brands alongside owned brands, while Nutrition uses Myprotein to sell sports nutrition, activewear, and adjacent wellness products through direct, retail, and licensing channels.
The moat is based on brand awareness, category know-how, product discovery, customer data, supplier relationships, and a large Myprotein distribution footprint. Lookfantastic and Myprotein have useful scale, but beauty and nutrition customers can switch, brands can multi-home, and rivals have large marketing budgets. The moat is medium rather than structural.
The thesis fails if low-margin growth consumes working capital, whey inflation and discounting prevent Nutrition from expanding margins, Beauty loses customer momentum, or the HMRC VAT claim does not arrive. Debt, lease obligations, competition, foreign exchange, supply-chain disruption, related-party arrangements, and further dilution can reduce per-share value even if revenue grows. TTM operating income is still negative and interest cover is very low, so the cash recovery is not yet proven across a full year.
CEO Matthew Moulding led the group through the Ingenuity demerger, the Claremont Ingredients disposal, refinancing, brand investment, retail and licensing expansion, and the capital reduction approved by shareholders on June 24, 2026 and sanctioned by the High Court on July 28, 2026. He held about 28% of issued equity per StockAnalysis and added shares in late 2025 and early 2026, but the annual report also discloses related-party property arrangements and continuing Ingenuity service relationships that deserve governance review.
E-commerce, social commerce, premium skincare discovery, sports nutrition, activewear, and omnichannel retail are durable category trends. Lookfantastic is the number one multi-brand beauty retailer on TikTok Shop with Q2 revenue up about 48% year over year. The risk is that the categories grow while platform fees, customer acquisition costs, commodity prices, and retailer bargaining power absorb the economics.
At about £480 million to £497 million of market value, THG trades near 0.29x sales, 1.1x to 1.2x book value, 7.6x to 9.2x reported earnings, and near 16.9x trailing free cash flow. A mechanical three-scenario check using reported EPS of £0.04, 15%/8%/-5% growth, and 12x/8x/5x P/E produced approximately 70p/40p/20p after three years. That sensitivity is not a reliable forecast because reported EPS benefits from disposals and TTM operating income remains negative.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| THG price and market value | About 30.30p (GBX) at the July 31, 2026 close. StockAnalysis reports a market cap of £497.04 million using 1.64 billion shares (0.303 x 1.64B calculates to £496.92M, a 0.02% difference), while the LSE page reports £480.82 million using about 1.59 billion shares (0.303 x 1.59B calculates to £481.77M, a 0.20% difference) | StockAnalysis statistics, LSE share page, and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 1.59 billion to 1.64 billion depending on the source. LSE reports about 1.59 billion shares in issue while StockAnalysis reports 1.64 billion outstanding; the exact count can change with issuance, treasury stock, and the registration of the capital reduction | LSE share page and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and segment mix | £1,717.9 million group revenue, including £1,107.9 million from THG Beauty and £609.1 million from THG Nutrition; source pages round the group figure to £1,717.0 million | THG FY2025 preliminary results and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 profitability and cash flow | Adjusted EBITDA £76.6 million, operating profit £8.1 million, statutory profit after tax £54.1 million, operating cash flow £33.4 million, and free cash flow negative £51.8 million | THG FY2025 preliminary results | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and net debt | Closing cash £183.1 million and official net debt £233.0 million before lease liabilities at December 31, 2025; StockAnalysis reports total debt of £561.17 million and net cash of negative £378.07 million under a different debt definition. FY2026 net debt guidance was about £110 million to £130 million before strategic disposals | THG FY2025 preliminary results and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM market data and cash flow | Revenue £1.72 billion, net income £54.13 million, EPS £0.04, operating cash flow £33.40 million, and free cash flow £29.37 million for the last twelve months; gross margin 40.69%, operating margin negative 1.24%, ROE negative 17.42%, debt to equity 1.32, and interest cover 0.10 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 trading update | Revenue £393.1 million, up 7.0% on a continuing constant-currency basis; Beauty grew 5.8% and Nutrition grew 8.8% (12.1% excluding Asia), with the strongest Q1 cash flow in three years and FY2026 free cash flow guidance of £25 million to £50 million | THG Q1 2026 trading statement | August 2, 2026 |
| June 2026 AGM update | H1 revenue growth about 6.5%, LTM adjusted EBITDA about £94 million to May 2026 (up 36% year over year), H1 adjusted EBITDA at least £40 million, strongest H1 free cash flow since 2021, Term Loan B trading above par, VAT claims of about £78 million pending with HMRC, and full-year guidance reiterated | THG AGM trading statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital reduction | Shareholders approved the cancellation of the share premium account and capital redemption reserve on June 24, 2026; the High Court sanctioned the reduction on July 28, 2026, effective upon registration by the Registrar of Companies | THG RNS announcement | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | July 31 close 30.30p, 50-day SMA near 31.30p, 200-day SMA near 36.87p, RSI(14) 45.78, average volume about 2.71 million shares over 20 days, and 5-year beta 2.46 | StockAnalysis technical and market data | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range and founder ownership | 52-week low 26.20p (September 9, 2025) and 52-week high 52.55p (January 13, 2026) per the LSE page; StockAnalysis reports insider ownership about 28.42% with CEO Matthew Moulding adding shares in December 2025 and February 2026 | LSE share page and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, with an average price target of 53.50 GBX (about 76.6% above the July 31 close) from 4 analysts; next estimated earnings date September 11, 2026 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
This THG AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and assumptions and may be wrong. Prices, technical indicators, company guidance, and financial data can change. Verify current filings and market data before making any decision.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
