THG plc research snapshot
THG AI stock analysis currently reads THG plc as a simplified consumer group built around THG Beauty and THG Nutrition, with Lookfantastic, Dermstore, Cult Beauty, and Myprotein among its key brands and platforms. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified market snapshot was about £0.31 per share with a market capitalization near £510 million. FY2025 revenue was £1.718 billion, adjusted EBITDA was £76.6 million, and statutory profit after tax was £54.1 million, but free cash flow was negative £51.8 million and net debt was £233 million. Q1 2026 revenue grew 7.0% on a continuing constant-currency basis, while the June AGM update kept full-year guidance unchanged. The central question is whether Beauty and Nutrition growth, retail distribution, licensing, and cost control can turn into durable cash generation. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
About £0.31 (31p) per share
Market cap
About £510 million
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Improving growth, limited cash-flow margin of safety
Trend status
Weak short-term trend, with the dated July 8 snapshot below both moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | THG combines online beauty retail and owned brands with sports nutrition led by Myprotein. The businesses have recognizable brands and growing omnichannel distribution, but consumers can switch easily and group margins remain modest. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The strongest advantages are brand awareness, category scale, customer data, product discovery, supplier relationships, and Myprotein distribution. Switching costs are low for consumers, so the moat is useful but not deep. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO Matthew Moulding retains about 25% of fully diluted equity. The demerger, Claremont disposal, refinancing, and retail expansion show active capital allocation, while related-party property and Ingenuity arrangements require governance scrutiny. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was £1.718 billion and operating profit returned to £8.1 million from a £147.9 million loss. Adjusted EBITDA fell 8.1% to £76.6 million and free cash flow was negative £51.8 million, so the recovery is not yet fully proven. | High |
| Valuation | At about 31p, the stock trades near 0.30x sales and 1.15x book value. The reported PE of about 7.75x is less useful because FY2025 profit benefited from disposals, while FY2025 free cash flow was negative. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The dated July 8 technical snapshot put the share below the 50-day average of 30.91p and the 200-day average of 31.04p. RSI at 34.261 indicated weak momentum near oversold territory, while the daily technical summary was Strong Sell. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because THG has low margins, negative recent free cash flow, material debt, whey and input-cost exposure, working-capital sensitivity, intense online competition, possible VAT uncertainty, related-party transactions, and a history of equity and convertible issuance. | High |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for disclosed financials, trading updates, and technical readings tied to dated sources. Confidence is medium for normalized earnings, future cash conversion, and any forecast because the business has changed after the Ingenuity demerger. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is low to medium. The operating recovery is credible, but investors still need evidence that growth can produce cash after interest, leases, inventory investment, restructuring, and ongoing capital needs. | Low-medium |
THG AI stock forecast
The THG AI stock forecast is a set of conditional ranges, not a price promise. The bullish case needs Beauty and Nutrition growth to persist, Myprotein licensing and retail expansion to offset input costs, and free cash flow to become consistently positive. The base case assumes the brands stabilize but the market keeps a discount for leverage and low margins. The bearish case assumes weak consumer demand, commodity inflation, or cash conversion problems overwhelm the operating recovery.
45p to 100p
More likely if FY2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA meet or exceed consensus, H1 growth near 6.5% converts into cash, Myprotein licensed product sell-in exceeds 60 million units, the HMRC VAT claim is recovered, and price reclaims the 31p moving-average zone with stronger volume.
28p to 50p
More likely if Beauty and Nutrition remain in growth, FY2026 free cash flow reaches the company guidance range of £25 million to £50 million, and net debt trends toward £110 million to £130 million, but the market continues to apply a modest multiple because cash conversion is still new.
15p to 28p
More likely if whey inflation and discounting compress Nutrition margins, Beauty growth reverses, inventory absorbs cash, the VAT claim is delayed or rejected, debt reduction stalls, or the share price breaks the 27p 52-week low area.
THG AI technical analysis
THG AI technical analysis uses dated snapshots because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data. Investing.com reported the July 8, 2026 daily technical snapshot, while the London Stock Exchange FTSE Russell tear sheet dated July 7 showed the stock below its 50-day and 200-day averages. Confirm these levels in a live chart before using any trading framework.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | About 31p | StockAnalysis market data snapshot last checked July 4, 2026. Other quote providers can lag or differ, so the exact last close should be confirmed. |
| Near support | 28.96p to 29.36p | Investing.com classic pivot levels from the July 8, 2026 snapshot. |
| Major support | About 27p | The London Stock Exchange FTSE Russell tear sheet dated July 7 reported a 52-week low near 27p. |
| Near resistance | 29.76p to 30.16p | Investing.com classic pivot resistance levels for the dated technical snapshot. |
| Moving averages | 50-day 30.91p; 200-day 31.04p | Both simple moving averages were above the July 8 reference level and carried Sell signals on Investing.com. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) 34.261; MACD -0.500 | The July 8 snapshot showed weak momentum with RSI close to oversold territory and a negative MACD. |
| Volume | About 4.50 million shares average over 20 days | StockAnalysis average volume snapshot last checked July 4, 2026. Use volume expansion to test any breakout. |
| Volatility | Elevated; beta 2.46 and ATR(14) 0.437p | StockAnalysis reported a 5-year beta of 2.46 and Investing.com reported ATR(14) of 0.437p in the dated snapshots. |
| Invalidation | Decisive close below 27p | A sustained break below the cited 52-week low area would invalidate the near-term support thesis and require fresh review. |
THG AI trading strategy
The THG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Use position sizing, live price checks, current filings, and a predefined invalidation level before acting on any setup.
Watch for a reclaim of the 30.91p to 31.04p moving-average band, followed by a hold above it with improving volume and no downgrade to FY2026 guidance. Compare price strength with Beauty growth, Nutrition margin, and cash generation.
A failed reclaim, a close below 28.96p, or weaker guidance invalidates the near-term trend setup. Do not treat an isolated price spike as confirmation.
If THG revisits the 27p to 29p area without a new fundamental break, wait for stabilization and check whether the fall is accompanied by weaker orders, margin pressure, inventory growth, or debt stress.
Do not average down solely because the share price is low. A close below 27p or a deterioration in liquidity should stop the setup and trigger a thesis review.
Track quarterly revenue by Beauty and Nutrition, active customers and orders, gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, inventory, cash, debt, interest expense, licensed units, retail doors, the HMRC claim, equity issuance, and related-party service costs.
Refresh the scenarios after results, guidance changes, financing actions, material VAT news, major supplier or commodity changes, and any new Ingenuity or Propco transaction.
Investment research summary
THG sells discovery, convenience, and branded consumer products through digital commerce and growing offline channels. Beauty monetizes access to more than 1,000 third-party brands alongside owned brands, while Nutrition uses Myprotein to sell sports nutrition, activewear, and adjacent wellness products through direct, retail, and licensing channels.
The moat is based on brand awareness, category know-how, product discovery, customer data, supplier relationships, and a large Myprotein distribution footprint. Lookfantastic and Myprotein have useful scale, but beauty and nutrition customers can switch, brands can multi-home, and rivals have large marketing budgets. The moat is medium rather than structural.
The thesis fails if low-margin growth consumes working capital, whey inflation and discounting prevent Nutrition from expanding margins, Beauty loses customer momentum, or the HMRC VAT claim does not arrive. Debt, lease obligations, competition, foreign exchange, supply-chain disruption, related-party arrangements, and further dilution can also reduce per-share value even if revenue grows.
CEO Matthew Moulding has led the group through the Ingenuity demerger, the Claremont Ingredients disposal, refinancing, brand investment, and a shift toward retail and licensing. His approximately 25% fully diluted equity interest aligns him economically with shareholders, but the annual report also discloses related-party property arrangements and continuing Ingenuity service relationships that deserve careful governance review.
E-commerce, social commerce, premium skincare discovery, sports nutrition, activewear, and omnichannel retail are durable category trends. THG participates in those trends through TikTok Shop, retail doors, licensing, and owned brands. The risk is that the categories grow while platform fees, customer acquisition costs, commodity prices, and retailer bargaining power absorb the economics.
At about £510 million of market value, THG trades near 0.30x sales, 1.15x book value, and 7.75x reported FY2025 EPS. The financial rigor check also produced a negative FY2025 FCF yield of 10.19% because free cash flow was negative £51.8 million. A mechanical three-scenario check using reported £0.04 EPS, 15%/8%/-5% growth, and 16x/10x/6x P/E produced approximately £1.00/£0.50/£0.20 outcomes after three years. That sensitivity is not a reliable forecast because reported EPS benefited from disposals and continuing operations were not yet strongly cash generative.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| THG price and market value | About £0.31 per share and £510.49 million market capitalization in the StockAnalysis snapshot; £0.31 x 1.64 billion shares calculates to £508.40 million, a 0.41% difference | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 1.64 billion shares. StockAnalysis reports 1.64 billion and Digital Look reports 1,640.39 million shares issued; the exact count can change with share and convertible issuance. | StockAnalysis and Digital Look | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and segment mix | £1,717.9 million group revenue, including £1,107.9 million from THG Beauty and £609.1 million from THG Nutrition; source pages round the group figure to £1,717.0 million | THG FY2025 preliminary results and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 profitability and cash flow | Adjusted EBITDA £76.6 million, operating profit £8.1 million, statutory profit after tax £54.1 million, operating cash flow £33.4 million, and free cash flow negative £51.8 million | THG FY2025 preliminary results | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and net debt | Closing cash £183.1 million and official net debt £233.0 million before lease liabilities at December 31, 2025; StockAnalysis reports total debt of £561.17 million and net cash of negative £378.07 million under a different debt definition. FY2026 net debt guidance was about £110 million to £130 million before strategic disposals. | THG FY2025 preliminary results and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 trading update | Revenue £393.1 million, up 7.0% on a continuing constant-currency basis; Beauty grew 5.8% and Nutrition grew 8.8% | THG Q1 2026 trading statement | July 12, 2026 |
| June 2026 AGM update | H1 revenue growth about 6.5%, LTM adjusted EBITDA about £94 million to May 2026, H1 free cash flow expected to be the strongest since 2021, and full-year guidance reiterated | THG AGM trading statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | July 8 snapshot: 50-day SMA 30.91p, 200-day SMA 31.04p, RSI(14) 34.261, MACD -0.500, ATR(14) 0.437p, and classic pivot 29.50p | Investing.com technical analysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Founder ownership and related parties | Matthew Moulding equity interest about 25% on a fully diluted basis at FY2025 reporting, with disclosed property and Ingenuity service relationships | THG FY2025 preliminary results | July 12, 2026 |
This THG AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and assumptions and may be wrong. Prices, technical indicators, company guidance, and financial data can change. Verify current filings and market data before making any decision.
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