Tempus AI, Inc. research snapshot
TEM AI stock analysis currently sees Tempus AI as a high-growth precision-medicine platform combining clinical diagnostics, genomic and molecular testing, and data and applications sold to healthcare and life-science customers. FY2025 revenue rose 83.4% to $1.27 billion and Q1 2026 revenue grew 36.1% to $348.1 million, while the company remained GAAP loss-making and free-cash-flow negative. At the July 12, 2026 research cutoff, the latest verified July 10 close was $58.23 and market capitalization was about $10.46 billion. The upside case depends on profitable scale in diagnostics and data licensing; the downside case is slower reimbursement, weaker data monetization, dilution or debt pressure, and a valuation reset. This is scenario-based research for informational use, not investment advice.
Current price
$58.23
Market cap
$10.46 billion
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
High-growth precision-medicine platform, but still loss-making and valuation-sensitive
Trend status
Above the 50-day average but below the 200-day average, with high beta and event risk
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tempus combines reimbursed diagnostics with data and applications. The model can compound data value as more tests and clinical workflows add information, but current scale has not yet produced GAAP profitability. | High |
| Moat | Clinical workflow integration, multimodal data, physician and academic-center connectivity, and life-science relationships are meaningful advantages. Data rights, clinical evidence, reimbursement, and competition keep the moat from being proven permanent. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO Eric Lefkofsky has built a broad platform through acquisitions, product expansion, and pharma collaborations. Founder control supports long-term focus but limits minority shareholder influence and raises key-person risk. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue increased from $257.9 million in FY2021 to $1.27 billion in FY2025, while gross margin rose from 32.4% to 62.7%. FY2025 still ended with a $245.0 million net loss and about $239.1 million of negative free cash flow. | High |
| Valuation | At $58.23, TEM trades near 7.66x trailing sales and 8.16x EV to sales according to StockAnalysis. P/E and P/FCF are not useful while earnings and free cash flow remain negative, so the market is paying for future scale. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close was above the 50-day average of $51.36 but below the 200-day average of $62.40. RSI was 56.26, while a beta of 3.46 points to unusually large price swings. | High |
| Risk level | Risk is high because reimbursement, patient-data access, privacy, regulation, customer adoption, acquisitions, debt, dilution, stock compensation, and continued losses can all affect value. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical financial and market data are well supported. AI has much lower confidence when translating early operating metrics into durable margins or a future stock price. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. A stronger thesis requires evidence that data and applications can scale, reimbursement remains healthy, and adjusted EBITDA converts into durable positive free cash flow without excessive dilution. | Medium |
TEM AI stock forecast
The TEM AI stock forecast uses revenue and EV to sales rather than P/E because Tempus remains GAAP loss-making and FY2025 free cash flow was negative. Using the $1.59 billion 2026 revenue guidance, a three-year revenue path of 25%, 20%, or 10% annual growth, about $0.68 billion of net debt, and 179.56 million shares, the exact calculator produced central cases near $204, $119, and $44 using 12x, 8x, and 4x EV to sales. These are scenario outputs, not price targets or guarantees.
$135 to $204
More likely if Tempus sustains roughly 25% annual revenue growth, data licensing grows faster than diagnostics, payer coverage supports test volume, acquisitions integrate well, and the market accepts an 8x to 12x EV to sales range as margins improve.
$88 to $119
More likely if the company meets 2026 guidance, grows revenue near 20% annually over three years, improves operating leverage, and trades around 6x to 8x EV to sales while still carrying debt and share-based compensation.
$31 to $55
More likely if revenue growth slows toward 10%, reimbursement or data access weakens, diagnostics margins disappoint, cash burn requires new capital, or the market values the business at only 3x to 5x EV to sales.
TEM AI technical analysis
TEM AI technical analysis is mixed. The latest verified July 10 close was $58.23, above the 50-day moving average but below the 200-day average. RSI was neutral at 56.26, average 20-day volume was about 6.32 million shares, and the 52-week range was $41.73 to $104.32. These are dated planning references, not live signals or execution instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Latest verified close | $58.23 | StockAnalysis closing price on July 10, 2026. Confirm the live quote before making any decision. |
| Near support | $51 to $53 | This zone is centered on the reported 50-day moving average of $51.36. A hold would keep the recent recovery structure intact. |
| Deeper support | $41.73 to $45 | The lower end is the reported 52-week low. A break would mark a new downside regime rather than a routine pullback. |
| Near resistance | $62 to $66 | The zone begins around the 200-day moving average at $62.40 and extends toward the current analyst consensus reference of $66.06. The moving average is the technical reference. |
| 50-day moving average | $51.36 | StockAnalysis snapshot last updated July 11, 2026. Moving averages change with each trading session. |
| 200-day moving average | $62.40 | The stock was below this longer trend reference at the data cutoff, so a sustained close above it would be a more meaningful trend-repair signal. |
| Momentum | RSI 56.26 | The cited RSI was neutral, not an oversold or overbought reading. |
| Volume | About 6.32 million shares average | A breakout or breakdown with materially higher volume would carry more information than a low-volume move. |
| Volatility | Beta 3.46; 52-week range $41.73 to $104.32 | The high beta and wide range make position sizing and gap risk more important than a single indicator. |
| Invalidation | Close below $50 | For a short-term bullish repair framework, a close below the 50-day area weakens the setup. A break below $41.73 would invalidate the broader range support reference. |
TEM AI trading strategy
This TEM AI trading strategy is a non-personal research framework. It combines price confirmation with quarterly diagnostics volume, reimbursement and coverage, data and applications growth, Insights contracts, net revenue retention, cash burn, debt, stock compensation, share count, and AI or healthcare regulation.
Treat a sustained close above the $62.40 200-day average with stronger-than-average volume as evidence of long-term trend repair. A move through the level without operating confirmation should be treated cautiously.
A close below $50 weakens the repair thesis. Define a maximum loss and position size before entry because TEM can move sharply around earnings and regulatory news.
If TEM revisits the $51 to $53 support zone without a negative earnings or reimbursement surprise, compare the price with diagnostics growth, data licensing, gross margin, cash burn, and debt rather than reacting to the chart alone.
Do not average down only because the share price is below a prior high. Rebuild the thesis if support breaks or if growth is being bought with worsening cash burn and dilution.
Track diagnostics revenue and test volumes, data and applications revenue, Insights growth, remaining contract value, net revenue retention, gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow, free cash flow, debt, and shares outstanding.
Lower confidence if payer coverage deteriorates, data contracts become less durable, stock compensation stays high, acquisitions fail to integrate, or positive adjusted EBITDA does not translate into cash generation.
Investment research summary
Tempus sells clinical diagnostics and data-enabled applications. Providers use its genomic, molecular, pathology, and clinical workflow products, while pharmaceutical and biotechnology customers can pay for de-identified data, analytics, and research tools. The core economic question is whether each additional test improves both near-term revenue and the long-term value of the data platform.
The potential moat is the combination of lab capability, clinician workflow integration, multimodal data, AI models, and relationships with health systems and life-science companies. Tempus reports connections to about 60% to 65% of US academic medical centers, about 50% to 55% of US oncologists, more than 45 million research records, and more than 500 petabytes of stored data. These are company-reported operating claims, not a guarantee that the data can be monetized at a high margin.
The thesis fails if tests do not receive adequate reimbursement, clinicians do not adopt new products, data rights or privacy rules limit monetization, AI tools do not create measurable clinical value, acquisitions dilute returns, or competition compresses pricing. The most important bear case is not a single bad quarter; it is sustained growth that never becomes durable cash flow.
Founder and CEO Eric Lefkofsky remains the central capital allocator and strategic decision maker. The 2025 10-K states that he and controlled entities held all Class B shares and about 62.4% of voting power at the reported date. Founder ownership can support long-term decisions, while concentrated control, key-person risk, stock compensation, and acquisition integration require minority investors to accept limited influence.
Precision medicine, clinical genomics, real-world evidence, and AI-assisted care are long-term healthcare trends. Tempus sits across diagnostics and life-science data, but the industry is regulated and reimbursement-driven. Clinical validation, payer decisions, patient privacy, cybersecurity, and competition from diagnostic laboratories and data platforms are more important than the AI label alone.
At the July 10 close, market capitalization was about $10.46 billion, trailing price to sales was 7.66x, and EV to sales was 8.16x. P/E and P/FCF are not meaningful while the company is loss-making and cash-flow negative. The market is pricing a future margin inflection, so the margin of safety depends on revenue quality, cash conversion, balance-sheet funding, and dilution rather than on a cheap current earnings multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEM price, market cap, and shares | $58.23 close on July 10, 2026; market cap about $10.46 billion; 179.56 million current shares outstanding. Tempus reported about 179.40 million shares outstanding in its Q1 2026 balance sheet. financial_rigor.py matched price times current shares to reported market cap with 0.04% variance. | StockAnalysis and Tempus Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and segment mix | Revenue $1.272 billion, up 83.4%; Diagnostics $955.4 million; Data and Applications $316.4 million. FY2025 gross profit was $797.9 million. | Tempus FY2025 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Five-year financial trend | Revenue increased from $257.9 million in FY2021 to $1.272 billion in FY2025. Gross margin rose from 32.4% to 62.7%; net income remained negative each year and FY2025 free cash flow was negative $239.1 million. | StockAnalysis financials and Tempus filings | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and growth | Revenue $348.1 million, up 36.1%; Diagnostics $261.1 million, up 34.7%; Data and Applications $87.0 million, up 40.5%; gross profit $222.0 million. | Tempus Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt | Cash and marketable securities were $643.8 million including restricted cash, or $639.1 million excluding restricted cash. StockAnalysis reported $1.32 billion of debt and negative net cash of $679.5 million on its standardized basis. | Tempus Q1 2026 results and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance and contracted demand | 2026 revenue guidance increased to $1.59 billion to $1.60 billion with adjusted EBITDA expected near $65 million. FY2025 ended with more than $1.1 billion of remaining total contract value and 126% net revenue retention. | Tempus Q1 2026 and FY2025 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Platform footprint | Tempus reports about 60% to 65% of US academic medical centers connected, about 50% to 55% of US oncologists connected, more than 45 million research records, more than 45,000 patients identified for possible trial matching, and more than 500 petabytes stored. | Tempus investor relations | July 12, 2026 |
| Founder control and governance | The 2025 Form 10-K states that Eric Lefkofsky and controlled entities held all Class B common stock and approximately 62.4% of voting power at the reported date. Class B shares carry 30 votes per share. | Tempus 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $51.36; 200-day moving average $62.40; RSI 56.26; beta 3.46; average 20-day volume 6.32 million; 52-week range $41.73 to $104.32; short interest 21.20% of shares outstanding. | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation and calculation limits | Trailing price to sales 7.66x and EV to sales 8.16x. financial_rigor.py calculated negative PE of 41.30x and negative P/FCF of 48.12x using reported loss and free cash flow, so earnings multiples are not decision-useful until profitability improves. | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
This TEM AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and may be wrong.
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