Tidewater Inc. research snapshot
TDW AI stock analysis reads Tidewater Inc. as the world's largest operator of offshore support vessels, benefiting from a tight vessel market, record day rates, and fleet modernisation. At the August 3, 2026 close of $72.36, market capitalisation was about $3.60 billion and enterprise value about $3.74 billion. TTM revenue was $1.35 billion, TTM GAAP net income $298.15 million, and TTM free cash flow about $287.5 million, for a free cash flow yield near 8%. The trailing P/E of about 12x looks low, but it is flattered by a roughly $105 million one-time income tax benefit in TTM results; analyst adjusted non-GAAP EPS for fiscal 2026 is about $3.37, which implies a forward multiple closer to 21x. The central question is whether the offshore upcycle, the Wilson Sons Brazil acquisition, and improving day rates can lift normalised earnings toward the consensus fiscal 2027 level near $6 per share, or whether oil price volatility, Middle East conflict costs, and the long-term energy transition cap the cycle. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$72.36
Market cap
$3.60 billion
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
World largest OSV fleet operator with record day rates and strong cash flow, a cyclical energy profile, and a valuation that only looks cheap on GAAP earnings flattered by one-time tax benefits
Trend status
Up about 52% over the last 52 weeks, roughly at the 50-day average of $72.92, above the 200-day average of $68.61, and about 22% below the 52-week high of $93.13
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tidewater operates the world's largest offshore support vessel fleet, chartering anchor handling towing supply, platform supply, and specialty vessels to IOCs, NOCs, independents, and windfarm developers across five basins under recurring charter contracts, with record day rates. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from fleet scale, a 70-year track record, customer qualification and safety barriers, global basin coverage, and the capital intensity of newbuilds. New vessel supply has been limited since 2015-2020, which supports pricing. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Quintin Kneen and the team delivered record 2025 results, began integrating the $500 million Wilson Sons 22-vessel Brazil acquisition, raised 2026 guidance, and repurchased shares, with shares outstanding down about 5.3% in a year. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was $1.35 billion with a 48.9% gross margin, TTM GAAP net income of $298 million, and free cash flow of about $288 million. GAAP earnings include a roughly $105 million one-time tax benefit, so the trend is good but headline profit is flattered. | High |
| Valuation | On trailing GAAP earnings the P/E is about 12x, EV/EBITDA about 7x, and the FCF yield near 8%. On adjusted fiscal 2026 EPS of about $3.37 the forward P/E is near 21x, so the stock is a mid-cycle value case rather than a clear bargain on normalised earnings. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | TDW closed at $72.36 on August 3, 2026, below the 50-day average of $72.92, above the 200-day average of $68.61, and about 22% below the 52-week high of $93.13. RSI near 45 is neutral after a July pullback. | Medium |
| Risk level | Elevated. Oil price and offshore spending cyclicality, Middle East conflict costs, day rate and utilisation sensitivity, integration risk on the Brazil acquisition, short interest near 12.7% of shares outstanding, and long-term energy transition risk. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for filings, market cap, and valuation ratios. Lower for day rates, utilisation, commodity prices, and multi-year earnings. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low. The franchise is strong and cash flow is solid, but normalised earnings are well below GAAP and the offshore cycle is hard to forecast. | Medium-low |
TDW AI stock forecast
The TDW AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the August 3, 2026 close of $72.36 and a normalised adjusted earnings base of about $3.40 per share. It does not claim AI can predict a specific price. The scenarios are conditional on day rates, fleet utilisation, oil prices, Wilson Sons integration, buyback pace, and the multiple the market assigns to cyclical earnings.
$95 to $135
More likely if the offshore upcycle continues, day rates keep rising, the Wilson Sons fleet integrates on schedule, utilisation holds near current levels, adjusted EPS climbs toward the $8 to $9 range by 2029, and the market applies a 13-15x multiple.
$70 to $90
More likely if adjusted EPS rises roughly 20-25% a year toward $6 to $7 by 2029, near the consensus fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS of $6.26, and the stock holds a 10-12x multiple, giving a central target near $80.
$30 to $55
More likely if oil prices fall, offshore spending and utilisation weaken, day rates roll over, adjusted earnings stall near $3 to $4, or the market compresses the multiple toward 7-8x, especially if Middle East conflict costs or acquisition issues persist.
TDW AI technical analysis
TDW AI technical analysis starts from the August 3, 2026 close of $72.36, the last verified close before this page data cutoff of August 4, 2026. The stock pulled back from the July swing high near $79.61 and closed lower on August 3 ahead of the fiscal Q2 earnings release after the close. Levels below are derived from the public price history and moving averages on stockanalysis.com and should be confirmed on a live chart before trading, because this page does not fetch request-time market data.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $72.36 | August 3, 2026 close, down 3.60% on the day, from the stockanalysis.com price history. |
| Near resistance | $74.70 to $75.40 | The $75.06 prior close and the 61.8% retracement near $75.37 of the $46.65 to $93.13 52-week range, with the 50-day average of $72.92 just below. A reclaim would repair near-term momentum. |
| Secondary resistance | $78.50 to $79.60 | July 23-27 swing highs, including the July 27 high of $79.61 and close of $78.54. Above this the $81 to $85 zone from late May, then the $93.13 52-week high from April 2026. |
| Near support | $71.00 to $71.20 | The 50% retracement near $71.16 of the June 18 to July 27 swing. A close below this targets the round $70 level that held on July 10 at a low of $70.10. |
| Secondary support | $68.60 to $69.20 | The 61.8% retracement near $69.17 of the recent swing and the 200-day moving average of $68.61. This is the main near-term trend decision zone. |
| Deeper support | $66.50 to $67.30 | Late June closes clustered between $66.60 and $67.32. A break opens the June 18 swing low of $62.71, which marked the April 2026 low zone. |
| 52-week range | $46.65 to $93.13 | The 52-week low from July 2025 and the 52-week high from April 2026. The stock trades about 22% below the high. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45, mixed trend | RSI was 45.49 on August 3. Price sits below the 50-day average of $72.92 but above the 200-day average of $68.61, a mixed signal after the July pullback. |
| Volume | About 286,000 shares vs 20-day average of about 608,000 | August 3 volume was below the 20-day average ahead of the fiscal Q2 earnings release, which can reduce the reliability of that day price action. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.53; short interest about 6.29 million shares | Beta is low versus the market, but short interest of about 12.7% of shares outstanding, roughly 7 days to cover, can amplify sharp moves in either direction. |
| Invalidation | Close below $68.60 | A daily close below the 200-day average and 61.8% retracement zone of $68.60 to $69.20 would weaken the intermediate uptrend. A break below $62.71 would confirm a lower high and lower low structure. |
TDW AI trading strategy
The TDW AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed fundamentals, technical confirmation, position sizing, and invalidation levels. Tidewater is a cyclical offshore energy stock with elevated short interest and a GAAP P/E that is flattered by one-time tax benefits, so position size should reflect higher volatility and oil price sensitivity.
Watch for TDW to reclaim and hold above the $74.70 to $75.40 zone with volume above the 20-day average, then treat the intermediate trend as improving toward the $78 to $80 July highs.
A failed reclaim or a close back below $72.50 would reduce confidence. Size for a cyclical stock that is still about 22% below its 52-week high.
If TDW pulls back toward the $70 to $71 support area at the 50% retracement and the July 10 low without a thesis break such as falling day rates or negative offshore news, compare price action with fleet utilisation, day rates, oil direction, and the fiscal Q2 report released after the August 3 close.
Do not average down simply because the trailing P/E looks low, since adjusted earnings are much lower than GAAP. Define a maximum loss and confirm the business thesis first.
Track quarterly results, fleet utilisation, average day rates by segment, Brent direction, offshore rig count, Wilson Sons integration and debt levels, buyback pace, and short interest.
Lower the rating if adjusted free cash flow turns negative, utilisation drops below current levels, day rates roll over, or management cuts guidance for offshore activity.
Investment research summary
Tidewater owns the world's largest offshore support vessel fleet, chartering anchor handling towing supply, platform supply, and specialty vessels to oil majors, national oil companies, independents, drilling contractors, and windfarm developers across five basins for exploration, development, production, and wind support work.
The moat rests on fleet scale, a 70-year track record, customer qualification and safety barriers, global basin presence, and the capital cost of newbuilds. New vessel supply has been limited since 2015-2020, which supports day rates.
The thesis fails if oil prices fall sharply, offshore spending and utilisation decline, day rates roll over, the Wilson Sons Brazil deal strains the balance sheet or misses synergies, Middle East conflict costs persist, or the energy transition permanently lowers offshore oil and gas investment.
Quintin Kneen (CEO) and the team delivered record 2025 results, announced and began integrating the $500 million Wilson Sons 22-vessel Brazil acquisition, raised 2026 guidance, and repurchased shares, with shares outstanding down about 5.3% in a year. Capital allocation and integration execution are the main monitoring points.
Offshore support vessels benefit from a tight supply market and rising offshore E&P spending, with day rates at record levels. The long-term energy transition cuts both ways: it pressures oil demand but adds offshore wind support work.
At $72.36 the market cap is $3.60 billion and enterprise value $3.74 billion. On GAAP TTM earnings the P/E is about 12x with EV/EBITDA near 7x, but normalised adjusted fiscal 2026 EPS near $3.37 puts the forward multiple near 21x. Consensus adjusted EPS of $6.26 for fiscal 2027 supports the analyst average target of $86.57, yet a cyclical downturn could compress the multiple and push the stock toward the $30 to $55 bear case.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TDW stock price | $72.36 close on August 3, 2026, down 3.60% on the day | stockanalysis.com price history (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalisation | $3.60 billion, verified as $72.36 x 49.73 million shares | stockanalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $3.74 billion | stockanalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.35 billion (quarter ended March 31, 2026) | stockanalysis.com financials (Fiscal.ai) | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP net income | $298.15 million, including a roughly $105 million one-time income tax benefit | stockanalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and P/E | GAAP EPS $5.96, P/E 12.13x | stockanalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $287.50 million, or $5.78 per share, an FCF yield near 8% | stockanalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash and investments $552.28 million; total debt $654.38 million; net debt $102.10 million | stockanalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Forward P/E 15.99x, P/B 2.73x, P/S 2.71x, P/FCF 12.67x, EV/EBITDA 7.06x | stockanalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold from 8 analysts; average target $86.57, range $54 to $117 | stockanalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 4, 2026 |
| Adjusted EPS estimates | Fiscal 2026 non-GAAP consensus about $3.37; fiscal 2027 about $6.26 | stockanalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day average $72.92, 200-day average $68.61, RSI 45.49, 20-day average volume 607,816 | stockanalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | About 6.29 million shares, 12.66% of shares outstanding, 6.96 days to cover | stockanalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | 3-year model on a $3.40 normalised EPS base: Bull ~$117, Base ~$80, Bear ~$27 | Three-scenario model built on stockanalysis.com data and consensus estimates | August 4, 2026 |
This TDW AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong. The fiscal Q2 FY2026 earnings report was scheduled for release after the August 3, 2026 market close and is not reflected in the TTM figures on this page. Offshore energy investments carry cyclical and commodity price risks.
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