Bullish case
$13 to $16
More likely if crude holds above $80, the U.S. rig count keeps climbing toward 100 plus, completion pricing gains continue, EBITDA expands toward $900 million to $1 billion, and the market applies a 6-7x EV/EBITDA multiple.
Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. research snapshot
PTEN AI Stock Analysis
PTEN AI stock analysis reads Patterson-UTI Energy as a major U.S. onshore contract driller and completion services provider that delivered a strong Q2 2026 earnings beat on July 29, 2026. At the August 4 close near $10.20, market cap was about $3.872 billion. Total revenue rose 10% sequentially to $1.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $232 million, and management guided third-quarter adjusted gross profit higher across every segment while pointing to further drilling and completion activity growth. Levered free cash flow was $244.65 million over the trailing twelve months and the stock yields 3.81%. The challenge remains negative GAAP net income of about -$90 million TTM and the structural cyclicality of oil and gas drilling activity. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$10.20
Market cap
$3.872 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Land drilling and completion services leader with a strong Q2 2026 beat, improving activity and pricing, and a 3.81% dividend yield, still balanced against negative GAAP earnings and cyclical exposure
Trend status
Up about 67% year to date from the early-2026 low, trading near its 50-day average after a post-earnings rebound, still below the May 2026 high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level (moderate information). Patterson-UTI is a long-established company with decades of operating history, SEC filings, and multiple analyst estimates. However, the oilfield services sector is notoriously cyclical, and forward earnings visibility is limited by commodity price uncertainty and rig count trends.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is anchoring to the strong Q2 2026 beat and the roughly 67% YTD rally, then extrapolating current momentum forward. The stock still sits below its May 2026 high, GAAP net income is negative, and crude volatility remains a swing factor. This page separates confirmed financial data from scenario-based judgments.
- ai Confidence
- High for current price, Q2 2026 results, balance sheet data, and valuation metrics. Low-medium for forward earnings projections given sector cyclicality and commodity price dependence.
- investment Certainty
- Low-medium. PTEN has improving activity, pricing, and free cash flow, a reasonable valuation, and a covered dividend. But the oilfield services business depends on oil and gas drilling activity, which follows commodity prices and customer budgets outside the company’s control.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Patterson-UTI is a leading U.S. onshore contract driller and a top completion services provider with a large rig fleet and frac fleet. Q2 2026 showed real operating leverage, but the business remains structurally cyclical. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is moderate and comes from scale in drilling rig fleet size, completion fleet position, long-term customer relationships, directional drilling and MWD technology, and a record safety performance. However, rigs and frac equipment can be replicated with sufficient capital. | Medium |
| Management | Management executed the post-2023 NexTier merger integration, exited low-return Colombia operations, and guided 2026 capex to about $600 million while expecting free cash flow to cover dividends. The Q2 commentary on pricing and the Emerald gas direct drive technology is constructive. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was $4.67 billion. GAAP net income was about -$90 million, but levered free cash flow was positive at $244.65 million and Q2 adjusted EBITDA hit $232 million. Cash fell to $203 million as working capital absorbed the activity ramp. | Medium |
| Valuation | At 0.85x TTM revenue, 1.28x book value, 5.95x EV/EBITDA, and a 3.81% dividend yield, PTEN is priced moderately given the cycle stage. Negative GAAP EPS makes traditional PE analysis not applicable. | Medium |
| Technical trend | PTEN rallied roughly 67% YTD from the $5.10 52-week low to around $10.20, then consolidated below the May 2026 high. The stock is trading right around its 50-day moving average and above its 200-day moving average. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are oil and gas commodity price weakness, declining rig count, customer capex reductions, industry overcapacity, margin pressure in completion services, and cyclical earnings volatility. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for recent price, Q2 2026 results, revenue, cash flow, and balance sheet data. Lower for forward-looking projections given the cyclical nature of drilling activity and commodity prices. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium. PTEN offers improving fundamentals, a reasonable valuation, and a solid dividend, but the oilfield services sector requires conviction that drilling activity will keep expanding. The stock is not an automatic buy. | Low-medium |
PTEN AI stock forecast
PTEN AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The PTEN AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $10.20 cutoff price, evaluated through EV/EBITDA and price/sales multiples given negative GAAP EPS. The bullish case requires sustained drilling and completion activity growth, pricing momentum, and margin expansion. The base case assumes steady activity with normal seasonality. The bearish case assumes a decline in oil prices and customer spending.
Base case
$10 to $12.50
More likely if drilling activity is stable but unexciting, Q3 guidance of about $330 million in segment adjusted gross profit is met, EBITDA stays near $850 million, free cash flow remains positive, and the stock trades at 5-6x EV/EBITDA with the dividend providing a floor.
Bearish case
$7 to $9
More likely if oil prices fall below $65, the rig count declines, customers cut budgets, completion pricing weakens, EBITDA contracts toward $700 million, and the stock trades near book value, reflecting the 2024-2025 downturn pattern.
PTEN AI technical analysis
PTEN AI Technical Analysis
PTEN AI technical analysis starts from the $10.20 August 4 price. The stock rallied sharply from its 52-week low, pulled back from the May 2026 high, and rebounded on the Q2 2026 earnings beat. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $10.20 | Latest verified level as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $9.80 to $10.00 | The area around the 20-day moving average near $9.85 and the August 3 low. A hold above this zone keeps the post-earnings rebound intact. |
| Major support | $8.56 to $9.20 | The late-July 2026 pullback low near $8.56. A retest of this zone would signal renewed weakness before the earnings-driven rally. |
| Near resistance | $10.50 to $10.72 | The July 31 high near $10.52 and the 30-day high near $10.72. A break above this zone with volume would confirm the recovery continues. |
| Major resistance | $12.85 to $13.08 | The May 2026 high close near $12.85 and the 52-week high of $13.08. This also sits close to the analyst consensus target zone. |
| 50-day moving average | Approximately $10.40 | PTEN was trading near or just below the 50-day MA at the cutoff, so reclaiming it cleanly is a near-term bullish trigger. |
| 200-day moving average | Approximately $8.81 | The stock was trading above its 200-day MA, indicating the longer-term trend was still constructive. |
| Momentum | RSI near 52, neutral to positive | RSI was in the low 50s after the Q2 earnings rally, indicating balanced momentum without being overbought. |
| Volume | About 4.9 million shares latest (avg 9.2 million) | Volume spiked to roughly 14 million on the July 30 earnings reaction and has since normalized, which is common during consolidation after a headline event. |
| Volatility | Elevated single-stock swing risk despite beta of 0.63 | PTEN has a lower beta than many energy stocks, but the stock moved from about $12.85 in May to $8.56 in July, so swing risk is high on oil moves and rig count data. |
| Invalidation | Close below $8.56, then $9.20 | A close below the $8.56 July low would invalidate the recovery setup. A break below $9.20 would signal the post-earnings momentum has faded. |
PTEN AI trading strategy
PTEN AI Trading Strategy Framework
The PTEN AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines business evidence from SEC filings and the Q2 2026 report, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Look for PTEN to reclaim and hold above the $10.50 to $10.72 resistance zone with volume above the 9.2 million average. Confirm that rig count data and crude prices support continued drilling and completion activity.
A failed breakout or daily close below $9.80 should reduce confidence. Monitor the Baker Hughes rig count, WTI crude price, and natural gas prices as leading indicators.
Mean-reversion setup
If PTEN pulls back toward $9.80 to $10.00 and volume dries up, look for signs of base-building and management commentary supporting stable activity before considering a position.
Avoid catching a falling knife during oil price shocks or industry-wide capex cuts. Define maximum loss before entering and review the latest 10-Q first.
Dividend capture / income setup
PTEN offers a 3.81% dividend yield supported by positive free cash flow, with a $0.10 quarterly dividend. Monitor the payout relative to FCF and management commentary on dividend sustainability.
Reduce confidence if free cash flow deteriorates, leverage increases, or management signals a dividend change during the next earnings call.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay Patterson-UTI for contract drilling, completion services (frac, wireline, cementing), and drilling products (drill bits, downhole tools). The company earns rig and fleet utilization fees, with margins that expand and contract with industry drilling activity.
Moat
Patterson-UTI moat comes from its large rig and completion fleet, established customer relationships, safety record, technology in directional drilling and MWD, and the Emerald natural gas direct drive frac technology. However, drilling rigs are capital assets that competitors can build or acquire.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if oil and gas prices decline sharply, prompting producers to cut drilling budgets, rig counts fall, utilization drops, pricing compresses, and free cash flow turns negative. The 2024-2025 downturn demonstrated this failure mode.
Management
Management integrated the NexTier merger, exited low-return Colombia operations, kept 2026 capex near $600 million, and expects full-year free cash flow to cover dividends. The Q2 2026 beat and constructive Q3 guidance show balanced execution.
Industry trend
The oilfield services industry faces a long-term shift as the energy transition progresses, but near-to-medium term demand for oil and gas drilling remains driven by commodity prices, global supply and demand, and U.S. producer economics, which were constructive in Q2 2026.
Valuation and margin of safety
At 0.85x revenue, 1.28x book, and 5.95x EV/EBITDA with a 3.81% dividend yield, PTEN is not expensive on historical oilfield services metrics. However, the margin of safety is limited by negative GAAP net income and the cyclical nature of earnings.
Source-backed data
PTEN Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PTEN price | $10.20 near the August 4, 2026 cutoff | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.872 billion, verified as $10.20 x about 379.6 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $4.67 billion | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | -$89.72 million (GAAP) | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | -$0.24 (GAAP) | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Levered free cash flow (TTM) | $244.65 million | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $203.17 million as of June 30, 2026 | PTEN Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Long-term debt | $1.234 billion as of June 30, 2026 | PTEN Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt/equity | 41.89% | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 0.85 | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | 1.28 | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 5.95 | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend yield | 3.81% ($0.40 annual, $0.10 quarterly) | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $1.2 billion, up 10% sequentially | PTEN Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $232 million | PTEN Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 1.07 | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $5.10 to $13.08 | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst average price target | $13.21 (range $8.00 to $19.00) | Yahoo Finance analysis | August 4, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
View HP AI stock forecastRead the NE AI stock analysisExplore the OXY AI stock analysisGenerate an AI trading strategy
This PTEN AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong. Patterson-UTI Energy operates in a cyclical industry and its financial results depend on oil and gas drilling activity, commodity prices, and customer spending decisions.
Related Tools
Trading Strategy Builder
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Open
Stock Screener
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Open
AI Stock Picker & Screener
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
Open