Starwood Property Trust, Inc. research snapshot
STWD AI stock analysis reads Starwood Property Trust as a commercial mortgage REIT that originates, acquires, and manages real estate and infrastructure debt. This page uses a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the quoted price was $15.90, down 0.50% from the $15.98 July 31 close, a fresh 52-week low, with market capitalization near $5.89 billion, computed as $15.90 times 370.75 million shares and verified with 0.08% deviation. The stock trades at roughly 0.88x book value with a 12.07% dividend yield. Q1 2026, reported May 8, 2026, delivered GAAP net income of $51.9 million, GAAP EPS of $0.13, and Distributable Earnings of $147.3 million, or $0.39 per diluted share, while management invested $2.5 billion in the quarter and $1.5 billion after quarter end. On the Q1 earnings call, management guided that it expects to resolve $900 million in non-accrual and REO assets during 2026 and targets dividend coverage above $0.48 per share by late 2026 or early 2027, which is the central credit question. The stock sits below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $16.27, $16.52, $16.75, $17.21, and $17.71, with 14-day RSI near 35.5 on Barchart and 35.73 on StockAnalysis.com. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$15.90 at the August 3, 2026 market open reading, down 0.50% from the $15.98 July 31 close, at a fresh 52-week low
Market cap
$5.89 billion
AI score
42 / 100
Rating
High 12% yield at a 52-week low with dividend coverage as the key question
Trend status
Downtrend below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, sitting at the 52-week low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | STWD originates, acquires, and manages commercial real estate and infrastructure debt across Commercial and Residential Lending, Infrastructure Lending, Property, and Investing and Servicing. It deployed over $117 billion of capital since inception and managed a portfolio of over $31 billion as of March 31, 2026. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale, lending relationships under the Starwood brand, diversified capital access across CLO, ABS, securitization, and unsecured markets, and multi-sector credit expertise. Switching costs are low and the market is competitive with banks and other lenders. | Low-medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Barry Sternlicht and President Jeffrey DiModica run a platform that has maintained the $0.48 quarterly dividend for over a decade. Capital allocation focuses on disciplined origination, balance sheet optimization, and resolution of legacy non-accrual assets. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 produced GAAP net income of $51.9 million, GAAP EPS of $0.13, and Distributable Earnings of $147.3 million, or $0.39 per share, with $2.5 billion invested in the quarter and $1.5 billion after quarter end. The stock price, market cap, EPS, dividend, and book value were verified mechanically; two-source full financial statement checks on the full loan portfolio are still needed. | Medium |
| Valuation | STWD trades at roughly 0.88x book value with a 12.07% dividend yield. The discount to book and the high yield suggest the market prices in credit risk from commercial real estate distress and dividend coverage pressure. | Medium |
| Technical trend | At $15.90 on August 3, 2026, STWD is at a fresh 52-week low and below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $16.27, $16.52, $16.75, $17.21, and $17.71, with 14-day RSI near 35.5 on Barchart and 35.73 on StockAnalysis.com, and a 14-day ADX near 20.91 with negative directional index above positive directional index. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis can fail if commercial real estate credit losses accelerate, the dividend is cut because Distributable Earnings stay below the $0.48 per share payout, book value declines, or the company needs to raise capital at dilutive prices. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for market data and valuation math that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the Q1 2026 earnings release. Lower for loan portfolio quality and forward credit assessment. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-Medium certainty because the page gives a framework, not a personalized buy or sell instruction, and loan-level credit data is not fully verifiable from public sources. | Low-Medium |
STWD AI stock forecast
The STWD AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $15.90 August 3, 2026 quote and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $1.69. A three-scenario model with 3-year EPS growth of 8%, 3%, and negative 6% and exit multiples of 11x, 9x, and 7x produced a bullish area near $23.4, a base area near $16.6, and a bearish area near $9.8. Analyst targets range from a low of $18 to a high of $24 with an average of $20.25. Actual outcomes depend on commercial real estate credit conditions, interest rates, and dividend policy.
$20.00 to $24.00
More likely if Starwood Property Trust resolves its $900 million in non-accrual and REO assets, restores dividend coverage above the $0.48 per share payout, stabilizes book value, and re-rates toward the average analyst target of $20.25 or higher.
$15.00 to $18.50
More likely if commercial real estate conditions stay mixed, the $0.48 dividend is maintained with coverage improving toward management target by late 2026 or early 2027, and the stock trades at a persistent discount to book value near $17.98.
$9.50 to $13.50
More likely if credit losses increase, book value declines, the dividend is reduced, or the company needs to raise capital at dilutive prices while Distributable Earnings stay below the dividend.
STWD AI technical analysis
STWD AI technical analysis is bearish as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded at $15.90, down 0.50% from the $15.98 July 31 close, at a fresh 52-week low, below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $16.27, $16.52, $16.75, $17.21, and $17.71. Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 35.49 and StockAnalysis.com reported 35.73, weak but not yet deeply oversold, with a 14-day ADX near 20.91 and the negative directional index near 32.28 above the positive directional index near 17.30, confirming bearish pressure.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $15.90 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026 market open; market cap math uses 370.75 million shares outstanding. |
| 52-week low | $15.90 | The current price equals the 52-week low of $15.90, so the stock is making new lows. A close below this level opens up new downside with no recent chart support. |
| Near resistance | $16.27 to $16.52 | Barchart placed the 5-day moving average near $16.27 and the 20-day near $16.52 as of August 3, 2026. A recovery above these levels would be the first sign of stabilization. |
| Next resistance | $16.75 to $17.71 | The 50-day moving average near $16.75, the 100-day near $17.21, and the 200-day near $17.71 form the overhead resistance cluster on Barchart and StockAnalysis.com. |
| 50-day moving average | $16.75 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $16.75 on August 3, 2026. |
| 200-day moving average | $17.71 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day moving average near $17.71, well above the current price, confirming the long-term downtrend. |
| 100-day moving average | $17.21 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $17.21 on August 3, 2026, below the 200-day and above price. |
| Momentum | RSI near 35.5, ADX near 20.91 | 14-day RSI was near 35.49 on Barchart and 35.73 on StockAnalysis.com, weak but not yet deeply oversold, while a 14-day ADX near 20.91 with the negative directional index above the positive directional index confirmed bearish pressure. |
| Volume | Average daily volume about 3.27 million shares | StockAnalysis.com reported 20-day average volume near 3.27 million shares and Barchart near 3.29 million on August 3, 2026, liquid for a mortgage REIT. |
| Volatility | Moderate | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 19.23% and beta near 1.03 on StockAnalysis.com, so position sizing should account for credit and earnings related swings. |
| Invalidation | Close above $16.52 or below $15.90 | A decisive close above the 20-day moving average near $16.52 would weaken the bearish setup, while a close below the $15.90 52-week low would extend the downtrend. |
STWD AI trading strategy
The STWD AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and fresh filings, dividend announcements, and Q2 2026 earnings due August 6, 2026.
For yield-oriented investors, monitor dividend coverage relative to the $0.48 per quarter payout, Distributable Earnings per share, and book value stability. Consider entry only near support with a plan to hold for the yield while tracking credit data.
A dividend cut, Distributable Earnings falling further below $0.48 per quarter, or book value declining should trigger a full review of the position.
If STWD holds the $15.90 52-week low without a thesis-breaking credit event, look for reversal patterns with above-average volume, but require confirmation above the 20-day moving average near $16.52 before treating the move as durable.
Do not average down. Use a predefined maximum loss, because a dividend cut or new credit losses can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track what matters most for STWD: resolution of the $900 million in non-accrual and REO assets, dividend coverage versus $0.48 per share, book value trend, new origination volumes, interest rate spreads, and the Q2 2026 earnings report due August 6, 2026.
Reduce confidence when the company reports higher credit loss provisions, delays legacy asset resolution, or signals a dividend change.
Investment research summary
STWD originates, acquires, and manages commercial real estate and infrastructure debt, earning the spread between its borrowing costs and the interest on its loan portfolio, then passing most income to shareholders as dividends.
The moat comes from scale, long-standing lending relationships under the Starwood brand, access to multiple capital markets including CLO, ABS, securitization, and unsecured bonds, and diversified real estate and infrastructure credit expertise. Switching costs are low and the market is competitive.
The thesis can fail if commercial real estate credit losses accelerate, the dividend is cut because Distributable Earnings stay below the $0.48 payout, book value falls, interest rate spreads tighten, or office and retail exposure creates loan impairments that force dilutive capital raises.
Chairman and CEO Barry Sternlicht and President Jeffrey DiModica lead a platform that has paid a $0.48 quarterly dividend for over a decade. They are focused on disciplined origination, balance sheet optimization, and resolving what they call legacy assets, targeting $900 million in non-accrual and REO resolution during 2026.
Commercial real estate still faces headwinds from higher interest rates, remote work pressure on office demand, and tighter lending conditions, while infrastructure lending offers some diversification. Starwood Capital Group raised a $10.2 billion opportunistic real estate fund in July 2026, signaling continued capital flows into the asset class.
At roughly 0.88x book value and a 12.07% dividend yield, the stock prices in significant commercial real estate distress and dividend coverage risk. The margin of safety depends on whether book value near $17.98 is real and whether Distributable Earnings recover above the dividend.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| STWD price | $15.90 at the August 3, 2026 market open reading, down 0.50% from the $15.98 July 31 close, at a fresh 52-week low | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.89 billion, verified as $15.90 x 370.75 million shares (0.08% deviation) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification + StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 370.75 million per StockAnalysis.com, matching 370,738,571 shares per SEC EDGAR XBRL as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics + SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $17.98, verified as $6.665 billion stockholders equity divided by 370.74 million shares | financial_rigor.py + StockAnalysis.com statistics + SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Price/Book | 0.88x, verified as $15.90 / $17.98 BVPS | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | 16.74x computed as $15.90 / $0.95 EPS; StockAnalysis.com reports 16.84x | financial_rigor.py valuation verification + StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 9.21x per StockAnalysis.com; about 9.41x computed as $15.90 / $1.69 FY2026 consensus EPS | StockAnalysis.com statistics and forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend yield | 12.08%, verified as $1.92 / $15.90; StockAnalysis.com reports 12.07% | financial_rigor.py valuation verification + StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend and payout | Quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share paid for over a decade, $1.92 annualized, payout ratio near 202% on reported TTM earnings | StockAnalysis.com dividend history + Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | GAAP net income of $51.9 million, GAAP EPS of $0.13, Distributable Earnings of $147.3 million or $0.39 per diluted share, total revenues of $512.456 million for the quarter | Q1 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | May 8, 2026 |
| Investment activity | $2.5 billion invested in Q1 2026 and $1.5 billion after quarter end, for a year-to-date pace of about $4.0 billion through mid-2026 | Q1 2026 earnings release | May 8, 2026 |
| Dividend coverage outlook | Management expects to resolve $900 million in non-accrual and REO assets during 2026 and targets dividend coverage above $0.48 per share by late 2026 or early 2027 | Q1 2026 earnings call transcript via StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet, March 31, 2026 | Total assets of $62.09 billion, cash of $290.3 million, restricted cash of $375.8 million, and stockholders equity of $6.665 billion, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Portfolio scale | Over $31 billion portfolio across debt and equity investments and over $117 billion of capital deployed since inception as of March 31, 2026 | Q1 2026 earnings release | May 8, 2026 |
| Revenue definition note | StockAnalysis.com statistics reports TTM revenue of $580.84 million, StockAnalysis.com financials reports TTM revenue of $903.65 million, and the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q reports $512.456 million of total revenues for the single quarter; definitions vary across providers | StockAnalysis.com + Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 19.61 million shares short, 5.29% of shares outstanding, about 5.05 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $20.25 across 9 analysts, low $18 and high $24, median $20 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 17, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | J.P. Morgan Buy $19 on July 17, 2026, Wells Fargo Buy $21 on July 13, 2026, KBW Buy $19 from $20 on June 15, 2026, UBS initiated Buy $20 on June 2, 2026, BofA Hold $19 from $20 on March 6, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 17, 2026 |
| Consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $2.13 billion with adjusted EPS of $1.69, FY2027 revenue of $2.32 billion with adjusted EPS of $1.91 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 17, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range $15.90 to $20.84, down 17.55% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 1.03 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $16.27, 20-day SMA near $16.52, 50-day SMA near $16.75, 100-day SMA near $17.21, 200-day SMA near $17.71, 14-day RSI near 35.49, 14-day ADX near 20.91, 14-day historical volatility near 19.23% | Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | Scheduled for Thursday, August 6, 2026, before market open, announced July 16, 2026 | Starwood Property Trust press release | July 16, 2026 |
| Sustainability bond offering | Private offering of $500 million aggregate principal of sustainability bonds priced June 25, 2026 | Starwood Property Trust press release | June 25, 2026 |
| Industrial portfolio acquisition | MAG Capital Partners completed an about $89 million sale of a 1.37 million square foot Midwest industrial portfolio to Fundamental Income Properties, a subsidiary of Starwood Property Trust, in July 2026 | MAG Capital Partners press release | July 23, 2026 |
This STWD AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 3, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, or macro conditions change.
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