First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. research snapshot
FR AI stock analysis currently reads First Industrial Realty Trust as a high-quality, U.S.-only industrial REIT with a large logistics portfolio, strong leasing spreads, and a steady development platform. At the July 12, 2026 research cutoff, FR closed at $65.01 on July 10, 2026, implying a market capitalization of about $8.91 billion using 137.02 million shares. First-quarter 2026 occupancy was 94.3%, cash same-store NOI increased 8.7%, and management guided to 2026 FFO of $3.05 to $3.15 per share, or $3.09 to $3.19 excluding proxy campaign advisory costs. The FR AI stock forecast is scenario-based because industrial property values, interest rates, lease-up, and REIT multiples can change quickly. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$65.01, latest NYSE close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$8.91 billion, based on 137.02 million shares
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Quality industrial REIT with durable rent spreads, but valuation and rate sensitivity limit the margin of safety
Trend status
Constructive, with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and RSI near 62
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026; latest quote July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FR owns, manages, acquires, develops, and redevelops logistics properties. Its 414 in-service properties covered about 69.9 million square feet across 19 states at December 31, 2025. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from infill logistics locations, scarce land, operating scale, tenant relationships, development experience, and a fully integrated platform. It is a location and execution moat, not a technology network effect. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Peter E. Baccile and the team have maintained high leasing spreads, refinanced near-term maturities, raised the quarterly dividend 12.4%, and authorized a $250 million buyback. Capital allocation remains a key test because development and acquisitions consume substantial cash. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from $476.3 million in 2021 to $727.1 million in 2025. FY2025 net income available to common shareholders was $247.3 million, while first-quarter 2026 revenue rose to $194.8 million and FFO was $0.68 per share. | High for reported figures |
| Valuation | At $65.01, FR traded at about 25.2 times trailing EPS, 21.9 times reported price to FFO, 3.1 times book value, and 15.4 times enterprise value to sales. The valuation is not distressed even though the business quality is strong. | High for calculation |
| Technical trend | The price was above the published 50-day moving average of $62.39 and 200-day moving average of $58.97. RSI was 61.56 and 20-day average volume was about 1.34 million shares, which supports a constructive but not extreme momentum reading. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate because industrial demand is cyclical, occupancy is below the prior-year level, debt is material, development requires capital, and rates can compress REIT multiples. Tenant credit, tariffs, construction costs, and weather also matter. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is high for descriptive data and medium for scenario outcomes. A rich filing record improves fact confidence, but it does not make future cap rates or stock returns predictable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. FR has a durable asset base and visible rent mark-to-market potential, but the current multiple requires continued execution and a supportive cost of capital. | Medium |
FR AI stock forecast
The FR AI stock forecast should be read as a range of conditions, not a price promise. A mechanical three-year EPS and PE sensitivity using $2.58 current EPS, 8% / 4% / negative 5% annual growth, and 29x / 25x / 18x terminal multiples produced nodes near $94.30, $72.60, and $39.80. REIT investors should also track the company guidance of $3.05 to $3.15 2026 FFO per share and the underlying occupancy and same-store NOI assumptions.
$82 to $100
More likely if occupancy holds near the 94% to 95% guidance range, cash rental growth remains strong, development projects lease quickly, 2026 FFO reaches or exceeds the high end, interest rates ease, and the market accepts a premium industrial REIT multiple. The tested EPS sensitivity node was about $94.30.
$65 to $80
More likely if cash same-store NOI grows near the 5% to 6% guidance range, occupancy stays stable, development spending remains productive, debt costs are manageable, and FR trades around the current valuation range. The tested EPS sensitivity node was about $72.60.
$36 to $50
More likely if industrial vacancy rises, tenant defaults increase, lease-up is delayed, development returns weaken, rates stay higher for longer, property values fall, or the market rerates FR toward a lower REIT multiple. The tested EPS sensitivity node was about $39.80.
FR AI technical analysis
FR AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 NYSE close and StockAnalysis statistics checked during the July 12, 2026 research run. FR traded above both the 50-day average of $62.39 and the 200-day average of $58.97, with RSI at 61.56 and 20-day average volume near 1.34 million shares. The chart is constructive, but a rising price does not remove REIT rate or property-cycle risk.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $65.01 | Latest verified NYSE close on July 10, 2026. |
| Near support | $62.39 | Published 50-day moving average. A sustained close below it would weaken the short-term trend setup. |
| Secondary support | $58.97 | Published 200-day moving average. A break below it would signal broader trend deterioration. |
| Near resistance | $65 to $68 | The current round-number area and the next price extension zone should be confirmed with current chart structure and volume. |
| Momentum | RSI 61.56 | Momentum is positive without being at a conventional overbought extreme. RSI can remain elevated during a trend. |
| Volume | About 1.34 million shares average over 20 days | Use traded value and volume expansion to confirm breakouts around earnings, rates, and dividend dates. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.07; 52-week change +34.71% | The beta is close to the market average, but REIT-specific gap risk can rise around rates, property values, and tenant news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $58.97 or weaker operating guidance | A break below the 200-day average, a lower occupancy guide, or weaker same-store NOI would require a fundamental review. |
FR AI trading strategy
The FR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a quality industrial REIT, not personalized advice. Any setup should be checked against live price, rates, credit spreads, occupancy, lease rollover, development leasing, and the next earnings release.
Watch for a sustained move through the $65 to $68 area while price holds above the 50-day average and operating data confirms stable occupancy, positive same-store NOI, and healthy lease spreads.
A close below $62.39, weak volume follow-through, a material rate shock, or a reduction in FFO or occupancy guidance weakens the setup.
Treat a pullback toward $62.39 or $58.97 as a watch point only if the balance sheet remains stable, development lease-up continues, and the dividend remains covered by recurring FFO.
Do not treat a moving average as a guaranteed floor. Higher cap rates, tenant credit problems, or a weaker industrial market can invalidate technical support.
Track occupancy, cash and straight-line rental growth, same-store NOI, lease expirations, tenant concentration and credit, development investment, debt maturities, interest expense, FFO, AFFO, dividend coverage, and share repurchases.
Reduce confidence if occupancy falls below guidance, rent spreads compress, development spending rises without lease-up, debt costs increase, or the company issues equity at an unattractive price.
Investment research summary
FR is paid to provide well-located industrial and logistics space to companies that need distribution, warehousing, light manufacturing, and supply-chain infrastructure. Customers pay rent for location, access, building functionality, and operating reliability. The model is recurring through leases, but growth depends on occupancy, renewal spreads, development, and capital allocation.
The strongest moat is the combination of infill locations, scarce developable land, a 69.9 million square foot operating platform, tenant relationships, and the ability to develop and manage properties in 15 key logistics markets. Switching costs belong mostly to the tenant location and move process, while competing capital can still build or buy industrial space.
The thesis fails if industrial supply stays high, economic output slows, tenants delay rent or leave, lease-up takes longer, construction costs rise, cap rates expand, or debt becomes expensive to refinance. The biggest analytical mistake would be extrapolating recent rental rate growth into a permanent spread while ignoring the 94.3% first-quarter occupancy and the 95.3% occupancy recorded one year earlier.
Peter E. Baccile leads the company as president and CEO. Recent decisions included refinancing $725 million of term loans, starting 305,000 square feet of development, increasing the quarterly dividend to $0.50, and authorizing a $250 million share repurchase program. The 2026 proxy contest ended with incumbent directors re-elected. The key management test is balancing growth, buybacks, liquidity, and leverage across the property cycle.
Industrial and logistics real estate remains tied to supply-chain redesign, domestic manufacturing, third-party logistics, and distribution networks. CBRE expects 2026 industrial leasing activity to increase 5% year over year, while Q1 2026 vacancy was 6.7% and availability was 9.2%. That combination suggests improving demand but also meaningful space competition and a need for asset quality.
At $65.01, FR traded near 25.2 times trailing EPS, 21.9 times price to FFO, 3.13 times book value, and a 3.08% dividend yield. The tested EPS sensitivity produced $94.30 bullish, $72.60 base, and $39.80 bearish nodes. The margin of safety is conditional on FFO durability, occupancy, leasing spreads, debt costs, and the price paid for the REIT.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest price and share count | $65.01 close on July 10, 2026; 137.02 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis FR statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $8.90767 billion calculated from $65.01 times 137.02 million shares; 0.00% variance against the reported $8.91 billion | StockAnalysis and Pineify financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income to common | $727.076 million revenue and $247.297 million net income to common shareholders | First Industrial 2025 Form 10-K, cross-validated with StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| First-quarter 2026 operating results | $194.827 million revenue, $143.101 million net income to common and $0.68 diluted FFO per share; 8.7% cash same-store NOI growth | First Industrial first-quarter 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 FFO guidance | $3.05 to $3.15 per share, or $3.09 to $3.19 excluding proxy campaign advisory costs; occupancy guidance 94% to 95% | First Industrial first-quarter 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Portfolio scale and occupancy | 414 in-service properties, approximately 69.9 million square feet, 19 states, and 94.4% occupancy at December 31, 2025; 94.3% at March 31, 2026 | First Industrial 2025 Form 10-K and Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and operating cash flow | $78.032 million cash, $2.553 billion debt, and $461.263 million operating cash flow at December 31, 2025; Q1 2026 debt was $2.565 billion | First Industrial 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical snapshot | 25.16x trailing PE, 21.94x price to FFO, 15.37x EV to sales, 3.08% dividend yield, 50-day average $62.39, 200-day average $58.97, RSI 61.56, and beta 1.07 | StockAnalysis FR statistics and ratios | July 12, 2026 |
| Management and ownership | President and CEO Peter E. Baccile; 581,015 common stock and units beneficially owned in the 2026 proxy ownership table; all incumbent directors were re-elected in April 2026 | First Industrial 2026 proxy statement and annual meeting filing | July 12, 2026 |
| Industrial market context | CBRE forecast 2026 industrial leasing activity up 5% year over year; Q1 2026 industrial vacancy 6.7% and availability 9.2% | CBRE 2026 U.S. Industrial and Logistics Market Outlook and Q1 figures | July 12, 2026 |
This FR AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available data and can be wrong. Market prices, financial statements, technical levels, valuation multiples, and company guidance change over time. Verify current filings and market data, consider your own objectives and risk tolerance, and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
