Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. research snapshot
SSD AI stock analysis currently reads Simpson Manufacturing as a high-quality engineered building-products company with a strong Simpson Strong-Tie brand, deep engineering and testing capabilities, and a broad distribution footprint. The July 10, 2026 closing price was $188.80 and the calculated market capitalization was $7.77 billion. Fiscal 2025 net sales increased 4.5% to $2.333 billion, while net income increased 7.1% to $345.1 million. Q1 2026 sales rose 9.1% year over year, helped mainly by price increases and foreign exchange, while management noted a 1% volume decline tied to softer housing starts. The central question is whether Simpson can keep earning above-market returns while housing, steel costs, tariffs, and international demand remain uncertain. This SSD AI stock analysis is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$188.80
Market cap
$7.77 billion calculated from 41.14 million shares, compared with $7.77 billion reported
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
High-quality structural building-products business with housing-cycle, tariff, and valuation sensitivity
Trend status
Neutral to constructive, with the quote below the 50-day average but above the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Simpson sells engineered connectors, fasteners, anchors, adhesives, and related building systems with technical support, software, and fast fulfillment. Its products are used in code-sensitive construction applications. | High |
| Moat | Brand recognition, engineering relationships, eight testing labs, a broad product range, local manufacturing, and 24 to 48 hour delivery support the moat. Substitution and construction-cycle risk keep it from being absolute. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management has funded capacity, digital tools, product development, buybacks, and dividends while keeping leverage moderate. The main test is whether the new Gallatin and Columbus investments improve service and returns. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 sales rose 4.5%, net income rose 7.1%, diluted EPS rose 8.4% to $8.24, and operating cash flow rose to $458.7 million. Q1 2026 sales and diluted EPS also increased year over year. | High |
| Valuation | At $188.80 and fiscal 2025 diluted EPS of $8.24, the calculated P/E is 22.91x. StockAnalysis reported a 22.16x TTM P/E and 20.60x forward P/E, so the market still prices SSD as a quality compounder. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | The quote was below the reported 50-day moving average of $191.73 but above the 200-day average of $180.28. RSI was 41.77 and average 20-day volume was 364,128 shares, which points to a mixed short-term setup. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium because demand is tied to housing and construction, while tariffs, steel, foreign exchange, seasonality, variable-rate debt, labor agreements, and product claims can affect margins and cash flow. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The public data set is strong and the key calculations reconcile closely. Forecast confidence is lower because the next earnings cycle can change the volume, margin, and housing-cycle picture. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-high business certainty does not equal high return certainty. The price already reflects a durable business, so the margin of safety depends on sustained returns and disciplined reinvestment. | Medium |
SSD AI stock forecast
The SSD AI stock forecast uses the July 10, 2026 quote, fiscal 2025 diluted EPS of $8.24, and an explicit three-year earnings and P/E scenario model. The financial rigor tool produced a $274.20 bullish reference, a $190.80 base reference, and a $113.00 bearish reference. These are scenario outputs, not price promises. The ranges change with housing volumes, pricing, steel and tariff costs, foreign exchange, capital spending, and the valuation multiple.
$250 to $285, tool reference $274.20
More likely if housing and remodeling stabilize, Simpson keeps pricing ahead of input costs, capacity investments lift service and productivity, international margins recover, and EPS compounds near 10% with a 25x multiple.
$175 to $205, tool reference $190.80
More likely if volumes remain soft but pricing and product mix support modest growth, operating margin stays near management guidance, and EPS grows near 5% with a 20x multiple.
$100 to $125, tool reference $113.00
More likely if housing starts weaken further, tariffs and steel costs compress margins, Europe stays weak, capital spending converts poorly, and EPS declines near 5% while the multiple contracts toward 16x.
SSD AI technical analysis
SSD AI technical analysis uses the $188.80 July 10, 2026 close and a public technical snapshot. The static page cannot fetch live chart data. Support, resistance, moving averages, momentum, volume, volatility, and invalidation levels must be rechecked in a current chart before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $188.80 | StockAnalysis historical data shows the July 10, 2026 close. |
| Near support | $180 to $185 | Recent May and June trading clustered around this area, close to the reported 200-day average. Treat it as a chart zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $191.73 to $200 | The reported 50-day moving average and the late-June trading area form the first recovery zone. |
| 50-day moving average | $191.73 | Reported by StockAnalysis at the July 10 data cutoff. A reclaim should be checked with price and volume confirmation. |
| 200-day moving average | $180.28 | Reported by StockAnalysis at the same cutoff. A sustained break below it would weaken the medium-term trend. |
| Momentum | Mixed, RSI 41.77 | The RSI snapshot was below the midpoint while the quote remained above the 200-day average. |
| Volume | 364,128 average shares over 20 days | Use live participation to validate any move through the moving-average levels. |
| Volatility | Moderate to elevated event risk | Housing data, quarterly results, tariffs, steel prices, and foreign exchange can widen price moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $180 | This is a framework trigger, not a guaranteed stop price. Reassess the operating thesis and current chart if it occurs. |
SSD AI trading strategy
The SSD AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a cyclical building-products company. It is not personalized advice. A fresh review of live price, volume, housing data, earnings, cash flow, input costs, and debt should come before any action.
Wait for SSD to reclaim the reported 50-day moving average near $191.73 with stronger volume and operating evidence that pricing, margins, and housing-sensitive volumes are holding up.
Exit or reassess if the reclaim fails, price loses the 200-day average, or guidance and margin evidence deteriorate.
If SSD tests the $180 to $185 area, compare the price move with housing starts, North America volume, gross margin, steel costs, cash conversion, and debt before treating it as a value setup.
Do not average down without a preset maximum loss and a revised thesis after the next earnings or housing data update.
Track North America and Europe sales, wood and concrete product growth, operating margin, capital expenditures, operating cash flow, net debt, buybacks, and returns on new facilities.
Reduce confidence when price strength is not supported by volume, margin, cash flow, or return-on-invested-capital evidence.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Simpson for structural connectors, fasteners, anchors, adhesives, and related building systems that help make structures safer and easier to build. The value proposition combines engineered products with technical support, testing, training, digital tools, local availability, and fast delivery.
The moat comes from Simpson Strong-Tie brand recognition, long relationships with engineers and contractors, code and testing knowledge, eight labs, broad product coverage, local manufacturing, and typical delivery within 24 to 48 hours. It is meaningful but not absolute because customers can switch products and construction demand is cyclical.
The thesis fails if housing and remodeling demand remain weak, tariffs and steel costs outrun pricing, Europe stays under pressure, new capacity earns poor returns, product claims become material, variable-rate debt becomes expensive, or management overestimates the durability of its market position.
CEO Mike Olosky and the team have emphasized customer service, innovation, digital solutions, capacity, cost discipline, buybacks, and dividends. The capital-allocation test is whether the Gallatin and Columbus investments improve service and productivity while leverage remains manageable. Stock compensation and repurchases should be monitored alongside per-share growth.
Building safety, code compliance, remodeling, mass timber, infrastructure, and digital construction tools provide long-term support. The near-term cycle still depends heavily on U.S. housing starts, interest rates, weather, labor availability, construction activity, and the cost of steel and freight.
At $188.80, the financial rigor calculation gives 22.91x fiscal 2025 diluted EPS, 3.84x book value, 26.48x fiscal 2025 free cash flow per share, and a 0.61% dividend yield. StockAnalysis reports a lower 22.16x TTM P/E because the TTM earnings base is higher. The price leaves limited room for a long housing downturn or lasting margin pressure.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price and market capitalization | $188.80 close, $7.77 billion calculated market cap, and $7.77 billion reported reference | StockAnalysis SSD history and statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 41.14 million current shares; SEC Q1 balance shows 41.071 million at March 31 | StockAnalysis SSD statistics and SEC Q1 2026 10-Q | July 10, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 revenue and net income | $2.333 billion revenue and $345.1 million net income | Simpson 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 10, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 diluted EPS and free cash flow | $8.24 diluted EPS and approximately $297.6 million free cash flow | Simpson 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $587.964 million sales, $114.617 million operating income, and $2.13 diluted EPS | Simpson Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 10, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and Q1 cash flow | $341.005 million cash, $370.5 million credit-facility debt, and $35.547 million Q1 operating cash flow at March 31, 2026 | Simpson Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | $191.73 50-day average, $180.28 200-day average, RSI 41.77, and 364,128 average 20-day volume | StockAnalysis SSD statistics | July 10, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell SSD. Forecasts are scenarios based on available data and assumptions, can be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, live market data, and your own risk assessment.
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