Sempra 5.75% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2079 research snapshot
SREA AI stock analysis treats SREA as exchange-traded junior subordinated debt, not Sempra common stock. The security is Sempra 5.75% Junior Subordinated Notes due July 1, 2079, issued in $25 denominations. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $21.38 on July 10, 2026, which implied about a 6.72% current coupon yield and a 14.48% discount to the $25 principal amount. That discount is not a simple bargain: the notes are unsecured and junior subordinated, callable at $25 on or after October 1, 2024, and allow interest deferral for up to 40 consecutive quarters under their terms. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$21.38
Market cap
About $648.24 million indicated market value of the $758 million principal issue
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Long-dated junior subordinated debt trading below par, with rate, call, subordination, deferral, and issuer-credit risk
Trend status
Above the 50-day moving average and below the 200-day moving average, inside a $20.30 to $23.84 52-week range
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | SREA holders have a debt claim on Sempra, whose regulated California and Texas utility cash flows and infrastructure businesses support issuer credit. They do not own SRE common equity upside. | High |
| Moat | The issuer benefits from regulated service territories, utility networks, and essential energy demand. For SREA, the relevant protection is issuer creditworthiness rather than an equity moat. | High |
| Management | CEO Jeffrey W. Martin and the board allocate capital, manage leverage, and service junior debt. Debtholders have no equity voting control, so the relevant risk is financing discipline and regulatory execution. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Sempra reported FY2025 revenue of $13.702 billion and GAAP earnings of about $1.80 billion ($1.796 billion net income). Q1 2026 GAAP earnings were $1.04 billion, or $1.58 per diluted share. | High |
| Valuation | The relevant valuation is current yield, discount to par, call risk, duration, liquidity, and Sempra credit, not PE. At $21.38, the $1.4375 annual coupon equals about a 6.72% current yield before tax. | High |
| Technical trend | SREA closed at $21.38, above the 50-day average near $21.26 and below the 200-day average near $22.13, inside a $20.30 to $23.84 52-week range. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated for an income security: unsecured junior subordination, long duration to 2079, callability at $25, possible interest deferral, rate sensitivity, California regulatory and wildfire exposure, and moderate trading liquidity. | High |
| AI confidence | Terms and issuer financial facts are well documented. Price-direction confidence is low because rates, credit spreads, potential calls, and thin trading can dominate the security price. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | SREA is a specialized income-security research case, not a conventional stock selection. Certainty improves only after checking live yield-to-call assumptions, tax treatment, liquidity, and the latest Sempra filings. | Low to medium |
SREA AI stock forecast
The SREA AI stock forecast uses rate-and-credit scenarios rather than an equity earnings target. The $25 call price, already-active call window after October 1, 2024, and 2079 maturity make outcomes sensitive to long-term rates, Sempra credit, liquidity, and whether the issuer calls the notes. A mechanical three-scenario tool run that treated the fixed coupon as an EPS-like input produced illustrative prices near $25.0, $20.8, and $15.8, but PE multiples are not economically valid for this debt security and are not used as a valuation forecast.
$23.00 to $25.00 plus accrued interest
More likely if long-term rates or utility credit spreads fall, Sempra credit remains resilient, market liquidity improves, and investors price the note closer to the callable $25 principal amount. A call at $25 would cap much of the upside from a $21.38 close.
$20.50 to $23.00 plus coupon income
More likely if Sempra remains financially sound, the 5.75% coupon continues to be paid, and long-term rates and credit spreads stay broadly similar. A stable coupon does not remove duration or call risk.
$17.00 to $20.50 plus or excluding future coupon income
More likely if rates or utility credit spreads rise, Sempra faces weaker regulatory recovery, higher funding needs, or California risk headlines, SREA liquidity deteriorates, or investors assign more value to the contractual option to defer interest.
SREA AI technical analysis
SREA AI technical analysis is intentionally limited at the July 12, 2026 cutoff. SREA is fixed-income exchange-traded debt, so chart signals are secondary to issuer credit, yield, call economics, and rate moves. The latest verified close was $21.38 on July 10, 2026. The price was above the 50-day moving average and below the 200-day moving average. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, confirm current price, bid, ask, and volume before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $21.38 on July 10, 2026 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. MarketWatch and FMP both showed $21.38. |
| 52-week range | $20.30 to $23.84 | FMP and MarketWatch both showed this year range around the July 10, 2026 close. |
| Near support | $20.30 to $21.00 | Support planning zone around the 52-week low and the lower end of recent trading. |
| Near resistance | $22.13 to $22.50 | Resistance zone around the 200-day moving average and the mid-range of the 52-week band. |
| 50-day moving average | About $21.26 | FMP reported the 50-day moving average at $21.262. The price is slightly above it. |
| 200-day moving average | About $22.13 | FMP reported the 200-day moving average at $22.133. The price is below it. |
| Momentum | Mixed, small daily decline | SREA fell $0.03 or 0.14% on July 10, 2026. No independently verified RSI was available at the cutoff. |
| Volume | About 36,400 to 36,500 shares | FMP reported 36,432 shares and MarketWatch about 36.53K on July 10, 2026, below the roughly 56K to 57K average. Liquidity is moderate for a junior note issue. |
| Volatility | Rate and credit-spread sensitive | The 52-week range is about $3.54 wide. Monitor Treasury yields, utility credit conditions, Sempra financing, and any call or interest-deferral disclosure. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $20.30 or a Sempra credit downgrade | A sustained break below the 52-week low, or any material Sempra senior or junior debt downgrade, would challenge the income thesis. |
SREA AI trading strategy
The SREA AI trading strategy is a research framework for long-dated exchange-traded junior subordinated notes, not personalized advice. It prioritizes current yield, yield-to-call assumptions, Sempra credit, call risk, tax treatment of interest income, and liquidity over equity-style earnings momentum.
Only consider a constructive price trend after checking that SREA holds above the $21.26 50-day area, quoted bid-ask spreads are acceptable, and long-term rates or utility credit spreads are not moving against the note. Confirm Sempra has not announced a call or a material junior-debt financing change.
Treat a sustained close below $20.30, a widening spread, or deteriorating Sempra credit conditions as a reason to reassess rather than average down automatically.
If SREA trades near the lower end of its range, compare the live price with the $25 call amount, accrued interest convention, current coupon yield of about 6.72% at the cutoff, yield-to-call assumptions, and the parent issuer financial record before drawing a value conclusion.
Do not assume a discount to $25 must close. Long duration, interest-rate shifts, subordination, deferral rights, and limited liquidity can keep a note below par for extended periods. The issuer can also call at $25 after October 1, 2024.
Track Sempra filings, earnings, debt issuance, credit ratings, California and Texas regulatory outcomes, Oncor investment needs, capital spending, Treasury yields, utility credit spreads, SREA call notices, and interest-payment announcements.
Size any research position for the possibility of delayed interest, a callable upside ceiling near $25, market-price losses before maturity, and tax treatment of interest income rather than qualified dividends.
Investment research summary
SREA holders lend to Sempra through listed junior subordinated notes. The economic source of repayment is parent-company cash flow from regulated California and Texas utility operations and related energy infrastructure, not the trading performance of a separate SREA operating business.
Sempra has regulated service territories, utility infrastructure, operating scale, and essential energy demand. For SREA, these characteristics support issuer credit, but they do not eliminate interest-rate, call, or subordination risk for the note holder.
The thesis fails if long rates or credit spreads rise, California regulatory or wildfire outcomes pressure Sempra, capital needs expand, liquidity worsens, the note is called before a holder realizes an expected price gain, or Sempra uses its contractual ability to defer interest for up to 40 quarters.
The relevant management test is conservative financing and utility execution: preserving access to capital, managing debt, recovering investment through regulation, and honoring income-security obligations. Holder incentives remain contractual and junior to senior unsecured debt.
Electric demand, grid investment, gas infrastructure, data-center load, Texas transmission growth, and North American LNG infrastructure affect Sempra funding needs and credit quality. For SREA, those trends matter through the balance sheet and credit spreads rather than direct operating upside.
The $21.38 close is about 14.48% below the $25 principal amount, while the fixed $1.4375 annual coupon implies about a 6.72% current yield before tax. Margin of safety is not just the discount: it requires a live assessment of yield-to-call, duration, subordination, Sempra credit, and liquidity. Because the notes are already callable at $25, upside is capped if the issuer redeems.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Security identity and terms | Sempra 5.75% Junior Subordinated Notes due July 1, 2079; CUSIP 816851604; $25 denomination; callable at $25 on or after October 1, 2024; quarterly interest on January 1, April 1, July 1, and October 1 | QuantumOnline SREA security description and SEC IPO prospectus | July 12, 2026 |
| Coupon and payment terms | 5.75% annual interest, or $1.4375 per note and $0.359375 per quarter; terms permit deferral for up to 40 consecutive quarters but not beyond maturity; interest is not qualified dividend income | QuantumOnline SREA security description and IPO prospectus | July 12, 2026 |
| Issue size and market-value verification | SEC disclosures show $758 million aggregate principal amount of the 5.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2079 outstanding, equal to 30.32 million notes at $25 par. Pineify financial_rigor.py verified $21.38 x 30.32 million = $648.24 million indicated market value with 0.00% variance. IPO size was 28.00 million notes; outstanding principal later exceeded the initial IPO amount. | Sempra SEC prospectus disclosures, QuantumOnline IPO record, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| SREA price, volume, and moving averages | $21.38 close on July 10, 2026; day range about $21.27 to $21.45; 52-week range $20.30 to $23.84; volume about 36,432; average volume about 56K to 57K; 50-day average about $21.26; 200-day average about $22.13 | Financial Modeling Prep stable quote API and MarketWatch SREA quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Current-yield calculation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and exact decimal math calculated $1.4375 divided by $21.38 = 6.72% current coupon yield. MarketWatch displayed about 6.73%. This is not yield to call, yield to maturity, or a total-return forecast. | Pineify financial_rigor.py using published SREA coupon terms | July 12, 2026 |
| Credit ratings at IPO and later reference | QuantumOnline shows IPO ratings of Baa2 by Moody and BBB- by S&P, with a dated ratings reference of May 26, 2025 still listing Baa2 / BBB-. Confirm live ratings before relying on them. | QuantumOnline SREA security description | July 12, 2026 |
| Sempra market-cap verification | SRE about $94.19 and about 653.59 million shares imply about $61.56 billion market cap. FMP reported about $61.57 billion. financial_rigor.py verified a 0.02% variance. | Financial Modeling Prep stable quote API and local financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Sempra FY2025 financials | Revenue $13.702 billion; GAAP earnings about $1.80 billion or $2.75 diluted EPS; adjusted earnings about $3.07 billion or $4.69 diluted EPS. Macrotrends net income of $1.796 billion cross-validated with 0.11% variance versus the rounded $1.80 billion IR figure. | Sempra 2025 results release and Macrotrends net income series | July 12, 2026 |
| Sempra Q1 2026 results | Total revenues $3.655 billion; GAAP earnings $1.04 billion or $1.58 per diluted share; adjusted earnings $991 million or $1.51 per diluted share | Sempra Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Sempra common-stock valuation math | At $94.19 and FY2025 GAAP diluted EPS of $2.75, PE is 34.25x and a $2.58 annualized common dividend implies about a 2.74% yield. These metrics describe SRE equity, not SREA note valuation. | Sempra IR, FMP, and local financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Issuer management | CEO Jeffrey W. Martin; CFO Trevor I. Mihalik; headquarters San Diego, California | QuantumOnline parent-company record and Sempra corporate disclosures | July 12, 2026 |
| Illustrative three-scenario tool note | financial_rigor.py three-scenario run using $21.38 price, $1.4375 coupon as a non-economic EPS proxy, 0% growth, and PE inputs 17.4 / 14.5 / 11 produced about $25.0 / $20.8 / $15.8. Those PE multiples are not a valid bond valuation method and are shown only as a mechanical audit trail. | Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
This SREA page is an informational research tool, not investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available terms and market context as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong. SREA is long-dated junior subordinated debt, not Sempra common stock; prices, coupon treatment, call outcomes, and liquidity can change materially. Verify live quotes, yield-to-call, tax treatment, credit ratings, and the latest issuer filings before acting.
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