Sempra 5.75% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2079 research snapshot
SREA AI stock analysis treats SREA as exchange-traded junior subordinated debt, not Sempra common stock. The security is Sempra 5.75% Junior Subordinated Notes due July 1, 2079, issued in $25 denominations. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $20.85 on July 31, 2026, which implied about a 6.89% current coupon yield and a 16.60% discount to the $25 principal amount. StockAnalysis.com and Financial Modeling Prep both showed the $20.85 close. That discount is not a simple bargain: the notes are unsecured and junior subordinated, callable at $25 on or after October 1, 2024, allow interest deferral for up to 40 consecutive quarters, and sit below all five major moving averages at the cutoff. Sempra has not yet reported second-quarter 2026 results; the release is scheduled for August 6, 2026, after this page data cutoff. The July 31 close was down $0.29 or 1.37%, and the note is down about 5.7% year to date. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$20.85
Market cap
About $632.17 million indicated market value of the $758 million principal issue
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Below-par income security with rate, call, subordination, deferral, and issuer-credit risk
Trend status
Below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a July 31, 2026 close of $20.85, inside a $20.30 to $23.84 52-week range
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | SREA holders have a debt claim on Sempra, whose regulated California and Texas utility cash flows and energy infrastructure businesses support issuer credit. They do not own SRE common equity upside. | High |
| Moat | The issuer benefits from regulated service territories, utility networks, essential energy demand, and large-scale LNG infrastructure. For SREA, the relevant protection is issuer creditworthiness rather than an equity moat. | High |
| Management | CEO Jeffrey W. Martin and CFO Trevor I. Mihalik run capital allocation, leverage, and debt service. Debtholders have no equity voting control, so the relevant risk is financing discipline and utility and LNG execution. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Sempra reported FY2025 total revenues of $13.702 billion, net income attributable to Sempra of about $1.84 billion, and diluted EPS of $2.75. Q1 2026 total revenues were $3.655 billion with net income of $1.037 billion, or $1.58 per diluted share. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 6, 2026. | High |
| Valuation | The relevant valuation is current yield, discount to par, call risk, duration, liquidity, and Sempra credit, not PE. At $20.85, the $1.4375 annual coupon equals about a 6.89% current yield before tax. | High |
| Technical trend | SREA closed at $20.85 on July 31, 2026, below the 5-day average near $21.10, the 20-day near $21.27, the 50-day near $21.18, the 100-day near $21.39, and the 200-day near $21.99, with 14-day RSI near 32.5 and negative directional index above positive. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated for an income security: unsecured junior subordination, long duration to 2079, callability at $25, possible interest deferral, rate sensitivity, a negative Moody rating outlook on Sempra, California regulatory and wildfire exposure, LNG project execution risk, and moderate trading liquidity. | High |
| AI confidence | Terms, issuer financial facts, ratings, and principal math are well documented. Price-direction confidence is low because rates, credit spreads, potential calls, and thin trading can dominate the security price. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | SREA is a specialized income-security research case, not a conventional stock selection. Certainty improves only after checking live yield-to-call assumptions, tax treatment, liquidity, and the August 6, 2026 Sempra results. | Low to medium |
SREA AI stock forecast
The SREA AI stock forecast uses rate-and-credit scenarios rather than an equity earnings target. The $25 call price, already-active call window after October 1, 2024, and 2079 maturity make outcomes sensitive to long-term rates, Sempra credit, liquidity, and whether the issuer calls the notes. A mechanical three-scenario tool run that treated the fixed coupon as an EPS-like input produced illustrative prices near $25.0, $20.8, and $15.8, but PE multiples are not economically valid for this debt security and are not used as a valuation forecast.
$22.50 to $25.00 plus accrued interest
More likely if long-term rates or utility credit spreads fall, Sempra credit remains resilient, market liquidity improves, or investors price the note closer to the callable $25 principal amount. A call at $25 would cap much of the upside from a $20.85 close.
$20.00 to $22.50 plus coupon income
More likely if Sempra remains financially sound, the 5.75% coupon continues to be paid, and long-term rates and credit spreads stay broadly similar. A stable coupon does not remove duration or call risk.
$16.50 to $20.00 plus or excluding future coupon income
More likely if rates or utility credit spreads rise, Sempra faces weaker regulatory recovery, higher funding needs, LNG project setbacks, or California risk headlines, the negative Moody outlook resolves downward, SREA liquidity deteriorates, or investors assign more value to the contractual option to defer interest.
SREA AI technical analysis
SREA AI technical analysis is intentionally limited at the August 3, 2026 cutoff. SREA is fixed-income exchange-traded debt, so chart signals are secondary to issuer credit, yield, call economics, and rate moves. The latest verified close was $20.85 on July 31, 2026, below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 32.5 and a negative directional index above the positive one, while 14-day ADX near 16.9 signals a weak trend. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, confirm current price, bid, ask, and volume before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $20.85 on July 31, 2026 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis.com and FMP both showed $20.85. |
| 52-week range | $20.30 to $23.84 | FMP and StockAnalysis.com both showed this year range around the July 31, 2026 close. |
| Near support | $20.30 to $21.00 | Support planning zone around the 52-week low and the lower end of recent trading. |
| Near resistance | $21.10 to $21.27 | Resistance zone formed by the 5-day moving average near $21.10 and the 20-day moving average near $21.27. |
| Next resistance | $21.99 | The 200-day moving average near $21.99 is the next overhead level after the 5-day and 20-day averages. |
| 50-day moving average | About $21.18 | FMP reported the 50-day moving average at $21.18484 and Barchart near $21.18. The price is below it. |
| 200-day moving average | About $21.99 | FMP reported the 200-day moving average at $21.98628 and Barchart near $21.99. The price is below it. |
| 5-day moving average | About $21.10 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $21.10, slightly above the July 31 close. |
| Momentum | Bearish but weak, RSI near 32.5 | Barchart reported 14-day relative strength near 32.48, a 14-day negative directional index near 29.36 above the positive near 11.01, and 14-day ADX near 16.94, which reads as a mild downtrend approaching oversold. |
| Volume | About 87,000 to 121,000 shares | StockAnalysis.com reported about 121,357 shares and FMP about 87,063 on July 31, 2026, versus a 20-day average near 61,000 on Barchart. Liquidity is moderate for a junior note issue. |
| Volatility | Low daily, rate and credit-spread sensitive | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 6.14%. Over the medium term, monitor Treasury yields, utility credit conditions, Sempra financing, and any call or interest-deferral disclosure. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $20.30 or a Sempra credit downgrade | A sustained break below the 52-week low, or any material Sempra junior debt downgrade, would challenge the income thesis. |
SREA AI trading strategy
The SREA AI trading strategy is a research framework for long-dated exchange-traded junior subordinated notes, not personalized advice. It prioritizes current yield, yield-to-call assumptions, Sempra credit, call risk, tax treatment of interest income, and liquidity over equity-style earnings momentum.
Only consider a constructive price trend after checking that SREA reclaims the 5-day and 20-day averages near $21.10 to $21.27, quoted bid-ask spreads are acceptable, and long-term rates or utility credit spreads are not moving against the note. Confirm Sempra has not announced a call or a material junior-debt financing change.
Treat a sustained close below $20.30, a widening spread, or deteriorating Sempra credit conditions as a reason to reassess rather than average down automatically.
If SREA trades near the lower end of its range, compare the live price with the $25 call amount, accrued interest convention, current coupon yield of about 6.89% at the cutoff, yield-to-call assumptions, and the parent issuer financial record before drawing a value conclusion.
Do not assume a discount to $25 must close. Long duration, interest-rate shifts, subordination, deferral rights, and limited liquidity can keep a note below par for extended periods. The issuer can also call at $25 after October 1, 2024.
Track the August 6, 2026 Q2 results, credit rating actions, the planned close of the 45% Sempra Infrastructure Partners sale to KKR, LNG commissioning updates, California and Texas regulatory outcomes, debt issuance, Treasury yields, utility credit spreads, SREA call notices, and interest-payment announcements.
Size any research position for the possibility of delayed interest, a callable upside ceiling near $25, market-price losses before maturity, and tax treatment of interest income rather than qualified dividends.
Investment research summary
SREA holders lend to Sempra through listed junior subordinated notes. The economic source of repayment is parent-company cash flow from regulated California and Texas utility operations and related energy infrastructure, not the trading performance of a separate SREA operating business.
Sempra has regulated service territories, utility infrastructure, operating scale, essential energy demand, and large-scale LNG assets. For SREA, these characteristics support issuer credit, but they do not eliminate interest-rate, call, or subordination risk for the note holder.
The thesis fails if long rates or credit spreads rise, California regulatory or wildfire outcomes pressure Sempra, capital needs expand, the LNG commissioning extension at ECA Phase 1 delays expected earnings contributions, the KKR Infrastructure Partners sale changes the balance-sheet story, liquidity worsens, the note is called before a holder realizes an expected price gain, or Sempra uses its contractual ability to defer interest for up to 40 quarters.
The relevant management test is conservative financing and utility and LNG execution: preserving access to capital, managing debt, recovering investment through regulation, and honoring income-security obligations. Sempra carried investment grade ratings at December 31, 2025, with a negative Moody outlook.
Electric demand, grid investment, gas infrastructure, data-center load, Texas transmission growth, and North American LNG infrastructure affect Sempra funding needs and credit quality. ECA LNG Phase 1 loaded its first cargo in July 2026 and Port Arthur LNG Phases 1 and 2 remain on schedule. For SREA, those trends matter through the balance sheet and credit spreads rather than direct operating upside.
The $20.85 close is about 16.60% below the $25 principal amount, while the fixed $1.4375 annual coupon implies about a 6.89% current yield before tax. Margin of safety is not just the discount: it requires a live assessment of yield-to-call, duration, subordination, Sempra credit, and liquidity. Because the notes are already callable at $25, upside is capped if the issuer redeems.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Security identity and terms | Sempra 5.75% Junior Subordinated Notes due July 1, 2079; CUSIP 816851604; NYSE; $25 denomination; callable at $25 on or after October 1, 2024; quarterly interest on January 1, April 1, July 1, and October 1 | QuantumOnline SREA security description and SEC IPO prospectus | August 3, 2026 |
| Coupon and payment terms | 5.75% annual interest, or $1.4375 per note and $0.359375 per quarter; terms permit deferral for up to 40 consecutive quarters but not beyond maturity; interest is not qualified dividend income | QuantumOnline SREA security description and IPO prospectus | August 3, 2026 |
| Principal amount outstanding | The FY2025 10-K Note 7 debt schedule shows $758 million aggregate principal amount of the 5.75% Junior Subordinated Notes due July 1, 2079, equal to 30.32 million notes at $25 par. The Q1 2026 10-Q still lists the security. The initial June 2019 IPO was 28.00 million notes; outstanding principal later exceeded the IPO amount. | Sempra FY2025 10-K Note 7 and Q1 2026 10-Q via SEC EDGAR | August 3, 2026 |
| SREA price, volume, and ranges | $20.85 close on July 31, 2026; day range about $20.71 to $21.22; 52-week range $20.30 to $23.84; volume about 121,357 on StockAnalysis.com and 87,063 on FMP | StockAnalysis.com SREA quote and Financial Modeling Prep stable quote API | August 3, 2026 |
| Moving averages and technical indicators | 5-day average about $21.10, 20-day about $21.27, 50-day about $21.18, 100-day about $21.39, 200-day about $21.99; 14-day relative strength near 32.48; 14-day ADX near 16.94; 14-day historical volatility near 6.14% | Barchart SREA technical analysis and FMP quote averages | August 3, 2026 |
| Current-yield calculation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and exact decimal math calculated $1.4375 divided by $20.85 = 6.89% current coupon yield. StockAnalysis.com displayed about 6.90%. This is not yield to call, yield to maturity, or a total-return forecast. | Pineify financial_rigor.py using published SREA coupon terms | August 3, 2026 |
| Issue market-value verification | Pineify financial_rigor.py verified $20.85 x 30.32 million notes = $632.17 million indicated market value of the $758 million principal issue. | Pineify financial_rigor.py and Sempra FY2025 10-K principal | August 3, 2026 |
| Credit ratings | The FY2025 10-K shows at December 31, 2025: Sempra rated Baa2 by Moody with a negative outlook, BBB+ by S&P with a negative outlook, and BBB+ by Fitch with a stable outlook. QuantumOnline carries a dated Baa2 / BBB- reference from May 26, 2025. Confirm live ratings before relying on them. | Sempra FY2025 10-K credit ratings section and QuantumOnline | August 3, 2026 |
| Sempra market-cap verification | SRE about $88.55 and about 653.69 million shares imply about $57.88 billion market cap. FMP reported about $57.89 billion and StockAnalysis.com about $57.89 billion. financial_rigor.py verified a 0.02% deviation. | Financial Modeling Prep stable quote API, StockAnalysis.com, and local financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Sempra FY2025 financials | Total revenues $13.702 billion; net income attributable to Sempra $1.837 billion; diluted EPS $2.75. Figures verified against SEC EDGAR XBRL from the FY2025 10-K. | Sempra FY2025 10-K via SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Sempra Q1 2026 results | Total revenues $3.655 billion; net income $1.037 billion or $1.58 per diluted share. Figures verified against SEC EDGAR XBRL from the Q1 2026 10-Q filed May 7, 2026. | Sempra Q1 2026 10-Q via SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 reporting date | Sempra plans to release second-quarter 2026 earnings by 8 a.m. ET on Thursday, August 6, 2026, with Oncor results also on August 6. This is after the page data cutoff, so Q2 results are not reflected in this analysis. | Sempra Q2 2026 earnings date press release, July 20, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Issuer management | CEO Jeffrey W. Martin; CFO Trevor I. Mihalik; headquarters San Diego, California | QuantumOnline parent-company record and Sempra corporate disclosures | August 3, 2026 |
| Sempra Infrastructure developments | Sempra agreed in September 2025 to sell a 45% equity interest in Sempra Infrastructure Partners to KKR for $9.99 billion, expected to close in the second or third quarter of 2026. ECA LNG Phase 1 produced first LNG in June 2026 and shipped its first cargo in July 2026, then extended commissioning after damage was found in refrigerant compressors, with substantial completion expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. Port Arthur LNG Phases 1 and 2 remain on schedule and on budget. The Ecogas Mexico sale was approved by the CNA and is expected to close in August 2026 with about $500 million in proceeds. | Sempra FY2025 10-K and Sempra Infrastructure press release, July 27, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Sempra common-stock valuation math | At $88.55 and FY2025 diluted EPS of $2.75, the common-stock PE is about 32.2x. These metrics describe SRE equity, not SREA note valuation. | SEC EDGAR XBRL and local financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Illustrative three-scenario tool note | financial_rigor.py three-scenario run using $20.85 price, $1.4375 coupon as a non-economic EPS proxy, 0% growth, and PE inputs 17.4 / 14.5 / 11 produced about $25.0 / $20.8 / $15.8. Those PE multiples are not a valid bond valuation method and are shown only as a mechanical audit trail. | Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
This SREA page is an informational research tool, not investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available terms and market context as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong. SREA is long-dated junior subordinated debt, not Sempra common stock; prices, coupon treatment, call outcomes, credit ratings, and liquidity can change materially. Verify live quotes, yield-to-call, tax treatment, credit ratings, and the latest issuer filings before acting.
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