Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. research snapshot
SQM AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile as a lithium, iodine, specialty plant nutrition, potassium, and industrial chemicals producer whose earnings moved sharply higher on the lithium recovery. The stock closed at $67.06 on July 31, 2026, down 31.6% from the $98.00 52-week high, with a market capitalization near $19.15 billion re-verified during this full refresh as $67.06 times 285.64 million shares with 0.03% deviation across StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. Q1 2026, released May 26, 2026, delivered revenue of $1,760.1 million up 69.8%, net income of $364.7 million or $1.28 per share up from $0.48, gross profit of $778.6 million at a 44.2% margin, and adjusted EBITDA of $837.0 million at a 47.6% margin. Lithium revenue rose 135.7% to $1,185.5 million on volumes of about 69,000 metric tons of LCE and an average realized price near $17.8 per kilogram, and management raised full-year 2026 lithium volume guidance to about 15% growth while estimating global lithium demand could exceed 1.9 million metric tons of LCE. The Codelco partnership, completed December 27, 2025, delivered its first full quarter through Nova Andino Litio, which generated more than $530 million in contributions to the Chilean state in Q1, and the July 21, 2026 final investment decision with Wesfarmers will double Mt Holland spodumene output to 760,000 tonnes per year with SQM capital expenditure of about $450 million to $500 million. Offsetting this are a corrective chart with price below all major moving averages and RSI near 38, a trailing PE near 23.5x with a forward PE basis of 8.27x on the statistics page, roughly $1.3 billion of net debt as of March 31, 2026, potassium volumes guided down about 50% for the year, Chile policy and water and environmental constraints, and a pending Supreme Court appeal tied to the Codelco merger. The page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$67.06
Market cap
$19.15 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Improving lithium-cycle earnings with high commodity, policy, and valuation sensitivity
Trend status
Corrective pullback below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages after a strong run, with 14-day RSI near 38 and downside momentum
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | SQM sells lithium chemicals, iodine and derivatives, specialty plant nutrition, potassium chloride, and industrial chemicals. Customers pay for chemical quality, reliable supply, scarce brine and resource access, and logistics rather than for a recurring software-like service. | High |
| Moat | Salar de Atacama brine access through Nova Andino Litio, brine-processing know-how, iodine and nitrate operations, customer qualification, logistics, permits, and long-lived Chilean and Australian assets create barriers. Commodity prices and state and partnership terms still set the economic ceiling. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management is executing the Codelco partnership, which generated more than $530 million in contributions to the Chilean state in its first full quarter, raised 2026 lithium and specialty plant nutrition volume guidance, advanced the Salar Futuro environmental permit and the Mt Holland expansion with Wesfarmers, and managed down the low-return potassium business. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue of $1,760.1 million rose 69.8%, net income reached $364.7 million or $1.28 per share, gross profit hit $778.6 million at a 44.2% margin, and adjusted EBITDA was $837.0 million at a 47.6% margin, following FY2025 revenue of $4,576.2 million and net income attributable to controlling interests of $588.1 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $67.06, the stock trades near 23.5x trailing EPS of $2.85, 3.27x book value, and 17.7x free cash flow, with a forward PE basis of 8.27x on the statistics page. The multiple embeds a large lithium recovery that can still be repriced if prices or volumes disappoint. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SQM closed at $67.06 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of $70.18, $75.15, $79.75, and $72.61, with 14-day RSI near 38.22 and 14-day ADX near 27.5 with negative directional index above positive directional index, indicating a corrective phase. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because lithium prices, Chinese and new supply, Chilean policy, the pending Supreme Court appeal on the Codelco merger, water and environmental constraints, potassium decline, capex, net debt near $1.3 billion, customer concentration, and foreign exchange can materially change earnings. | High |
| AI confidence | High for company filings and independent financial data that agreed for FY2025 revenue and income, Q1 2026 results, market cap arithmetic, and balance sheet items with 0.00% to 0.03% deviation. Lower for forward return estimates because lithium prices, supply, policy, and multiples are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low. SQM has scarce assets and several businesses, but the margin of safety depends on a conservative lithium-price and capital-intensity assumption, not on the long-term electrification narrative alone. | Medium-low |
SQM AI stock forecast
The SQM AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $67.06 and a forward EPS base near $6.51, which comes from the $1.86 billion consensus FY2026 net income estimate on 285.64 million shares. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $33, a base area near $83, and a bullish area near $137 before dividends, using EPS growth of negative 10%, 5%, and 12% and exit multiples of 7x, 11x, and 15x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments, and the wide spread reflects how much the outcome depends on lithium prices, volumes, capital allocation, and the terminal multiple.
About $125 to $150
More likely if lithium prices stay supportive, volumes and realized prices keep improving, iodine and specialty plant nutrition remain strong, the Codelco partnership delivers, the Mt Holland expansion stays on cost, and annual EPS compounds near 12 percent with a 15x exit multiple.
About $75 to $90
More likely if earnings grow near 5 percent annually from the FY2026 consensus base, lithium prices normalize without repeating peak-cycle margins, capex and leverage remain controlled, and investors apply an 11x exit multiple.
About $28 to $38
More likely if lithium prices weaken again, supply growth outruns demand, partnership or regulatory costs rise, potassium declines more than guided, earnings fall near 10 percent annually, and the market applies a 7x cyclical multiple.
SQM AI technical analysis
SQM AI technical analysis is corrective as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $67.06 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 38.22 and 14-day ADX near 27.5 where the negative directional index sits above the positive directional index. The stock is about 31.6% below its $98.00 52-week high and about 88% above its $35.67 52-week low. Confirm swing structures in a live chart before acting, then use the levels below as a research checklist rather than as trading instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $67.06 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 285.64 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | About $64 to $66 | The stock traded as low as $66.24 on July 31, 2026, so a first support zone sits just below the current price and needs confirmation in a live chart. |
| Next support | Confirm below $64 in a live chart | A decisive close below the $66 area would open the next support zone, which should be re-confirmed with current volume and price structure. |
| Near resistance | $70 to $73 | The 20-day moving average near $70.18 and the 200-day moving average near $72.61 form the first overhead resistance cluster. |
| Next resistance | $75 to $80 | The 50-day moving average near $75.15 and the 100-day moving average near $79.75 mark the next resistance layers. |
| 50-day moving average | $75.15 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $75.15 on July 31, 2026, above the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $72.61 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day moving average near $72.61, above price, so the medium-term trend is under pressure. |
| Momentum | RSI near 38, negative DI above positive DI | 14-day RSI was near 38.22 and 14-day ADX near 27.5 with -DI near 28.6 above +DI near 14.2 on Barchart, consistent with a corrective pullback. |
| Volume | About 0.93 million to 0.99 million average shares | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 932,959 and Barchart near 986,125 on July 31, 2026, useful for checking reversal or breakdown quality. |
| Volatility | Elevated | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 45.1% and 14-day average true range near $2.76, about 4.1% of price, so position sizing should account for large swings around earnings and lithium news. |
| Invalidation | A close below the $64 to $66 zone or a reclaim of the 200-day moving average | A decisive close below the recent low area would extend the pullback, while a reclaim of the 200-day moving average near $72.61 would stabilize the medium-term view. Both readings should be paired with lithium prices, volumes, and filings rather than used as automatic trade signals. |
SQM AI trading strategy
The SQM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching the lithium and specialty chemicals cycle. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, lithium market data, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
For an uptrend setup, watch for SQM to reclaim and hold the 20-day moving average near $70 and then the 200-day moving average near $72.60 with improving volume, while lithium prices, sales volumes, and quarterly cash conversion support the move.
A failed reclaim or a break below the $64 to $66 support zone requires a reassessment, especially if lithium prices, guidance, or policy and partnership terms deteriorate.
If SQM declines, compare the revised price with conservative EPS and free-cash-flow assumptions, cash, debt, capex, and Codelco and Mt Holland execution rather than buying solely because the price is below a prior high.
Do not assume a lithium-related decline is value when supply growth, prices, leverage, or regulatory costs are worsening.
Track lithium sales volumes and realized prices, iodine and specialty plant nutrition margins, reported cash and debt, capex, free cash flow, dividend policy, Chilean policy and the pending Supreme Court appeal, water and environmental conditions, Codelco partnership disclosures, and Mt Holland construction milestones.
Position sizing should recognize that SQM is a commodity-linked international issuer with policy and execution risks that can override chart signals.
Investment research summary
Customers pay SQM for lithium chemicals, iodine, specialty plant nutrition, and industrial inputs that meet quality, availability, and logistics requirements. The business turns scarce Chilean brine and Australian hard-rock resources into commodity and specialty-chemical products.
SQM has resource, process, permit, infrastructure, and customer-qualification advantages, especially in Salar de Atacama through Nova Andino Litio and in iodine and nitrate operations. The moat lowers barriers but cannot make lithium earnings immune to global supply, prices, or state and partnership terms.
The thesis can fail if lithium prices decline, supply outruns battery demand, Chile changes operating economics, the pending Supreme Court appeal reverses or delays the Codelco merger, water or environmental limits tighten, potassium declines more than guided, capex rises, or high-cycle capacity earns low returns.
Management must balance output growth with returns, cash generation, leverage, environmental obligations, and Chilean stakeholder alignment. The key-person test is whether those capital-allocation rules survive through a weaker lithium market, and whether the Mt Holland expansion stays within its $450 million to $500 million SQM capital estimate.
Battery electrification and battery energy storage support long-run lithium demand, which SQM estimates could exceed 1.9 million metric tons of LCE in 2026, while iodine and specialty plant nutrition diversify the revenue base. The route from a demand theme to shareholder returns remains cyclical, capital intensive, and exposed to new supply.
At $67.06, SQM trades near 23.5x trailing EPS, 3.27x book value, and 17.7x trailing free cash flow, with a forward PE basis of 8.27x. Margin of safety requires a conservative view of lithium normalization, capex, net debt near $1.3 billion, policy terms, and partnership economics rather than a peak-demand narrative.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SQM price and market capitalization | $67.06 at the July 31, 2026 close and $19.15 billion market capitalization | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding and market-cap verification | 285.64 million shares; $67.06 x 285.64 million = $19.16 billion, 0.03 percent from reported market cap | StockAnalysis.com and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4,576.2 million, cross-validated against the SQM 20-F, StockAnalysis.com, and the Q4 2025 earnings release with 0.00% deviation | SQM 2025 annual report on SEC EDGAR | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to controlling interests | $588.1 million, cross-validated against the SQM 20-F and StockAnalysis.com with 0.00% deviation | SQM 2025 annual report on SEC EDGAR | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 earnings per share | $2.06 basic earnings per share | SQM 2025 annual report on SEC EDGAR | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 adjusted EBITDA | $1,579.6 million, compared with $1,483.6 million in FY2024 | SQM 2025 annual report on SEC EDGAR | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net income | $1,760.1 million revenue up 69.8% and $364.7 million net income or $1.28 per share, cross-validated against StockAnalysis.com and the earnings release with 0.00% to 0.01% deviation | SQM Q1 2026 earnings release (6-K) | May 26, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 gross profit and adjusted EBITDA | Gross profit of $778.6 million at a 44.2% margin and adjusted EBITDA of $837.0 million at a 47.6% margin | SQM Q1 2026 earnings release (6-K) | May 26, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 lithium results | Revenue of $1,185.5 million up 135.7%, volumes of about 69,000 metric tons of LCE up 25%, and an average realized price near $17.8 per kilogram up about 95% year over year | SQM Q1 2026 earnings release (6-K) | May 26, 2026 |
| 2026 lithium volume guidance | Lithium sales volumes raised to about 15% growth for 2026, with global lithium demand estimated above 1.9 million metric tons of LCE | SQM Q1 2026 earnings release (6-K) | May 26, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 specialty plant nutrition results | Revenue of $239.0 million up 12.6% on volumes up 7%, with full-year 2026 sales volume guidance raised to at least 10% growth | SQM Q1 2026 earnings release (6-K) | May 26, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 iodine and potassium results | Iodine revenue of $275.9 million up 8.2% at an average price of $72.3 per kilogram; potassium revenue of $34.4 million down 19% with 2026 volumes guided down about 50% | SQM Q1 2026 earnings release (6-K) | May 26, 2026 |
| Balance sheet as of March 31, 2026 | Cash and cash equivalents of $2,829.4 million, short-term debt of $324.4 million, long-term debt of $4,787.5 million, total assets of $15,779.5 million, and shareholders equity before minority interest of $5,852.2 million | SQM Q1 2026 earnings release (6-K) and interim statements | May 26, 2026 |
| Cash and debt reconciliation | StockAnalysis.com reports cash and investments of $3,867 million, which equals company cash of $2,829.4 million plus other current financial assets of $1,038.1 million; total debt of $5,208 million and net debt of about $1.3 billion | SQM Q1 2026 interim statements and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Codelco partnership | Association agreement completed December 27, 2025 through the merger of Minera Tarar into SQM Salar, renamed Nova Andino Litio; first full quarter generated more than $530 million in contributions to the Chilean state; merger subject to a pending Supreme Court appeal | SQM press release (6-K) and Q1 2026 earnings release | December 27, 2025 |
| Mt Holland expansion final investment decision | SQM and Wesfarmers approved the expansion on July 21, 2026, doubling spodumene concentrate to about 760,000 tonnes per year at 5.5% Li2O, with SQM capital expenditure of about $450 million to $500 million, construction from the second half of 2027 and first production from the first half of 2030 | SQM and Wesfarmers press release (6-K) | July 21, 2026 |
| TTM financial summary | TTM revenue of $5.30 billion, TTM net income of $815.33 million, TTM EPS of $2.85, operating cash flow of $1.96 billion, capital expenditures of $877.3 million, and free cash flow of $1.08 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics and cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 23.49x trailing EPS, 3.61x sales, 3.27x book value, 17.67x free cash flow, 0.99% dividend yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | Forward PE of 8.27x, forward PS of 2.25x, EV/EBITDA of 28.44, EV/FCF of 18.92, PEG of 0.17 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $84.78 across 18 analysts, low $44.35, median $86.85, and high $110 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 28, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Scotiabank Buy with target lowered to $93 from $105, Goldman Sachs Neutral raised to $82 from $64, Deutsche Bank Buy lowered to $98 from $105, Berenberg Hold raised to $66 from $56, J.P. Morgan Neutral after a downgrade from Overweight with a target of $100 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks | July 28, 2026 |
| FY2026 consensus estimate | Revenue of $7.98 billion, up about 74% from FY2025, and net income of $1.86 billion, which implies EPS near $6.51 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| 52-week range and price change | 52-week range of $35.67 to $98.00, with the stock up 79.45% over the last 52 weeks and down 31.6% from its high | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 2.19 million shares short, 1.64% of shares outstanding, 2.25 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Tuesday, August 18, 2026, after market close | StockAnalysis.com earnings calendar | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $70.18, 50-day SMA near $75.15, 100-day SMA near $79.75, 200-day SMA near $72.61, 14-day RSI near 38.22, 14-day ADX near 27.5, 14-day historical volatility near 45.1% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
This SQM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, lithium price moves, legal developments, policy changes, or market shifts.
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