Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. research snapshot
SQM AI stock analysis currently sees Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile as a lithium, iodine, specialty plant-nutrition, and industrial-chemicals producer whose earnings can change sharply with lithium prices. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified NYSE reference was $74.43 and the matching market-cap calculation was about $21.26 billion. FY2025 revenue was $4.576 billion and Q1 2026 revenue was $1.760 billion with $365 million of net income. The outlook has improved with the lithium recovery, but it remains a scenario-driven cyclical investment, not a single-price forecast. This information is for research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$74.43
Market cap
$21.26 billion verified market cap
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Strategic lithium and specialty-chemicals producer with improving earnings and high commodity-cycle sensitivity
Trend status
Recovery narrative is supported by Q1 earnings, but a current chart is required to confirm technical trend
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | SQM sells lithium chemicals, iodine and derivatives, specialty plant nutrition, potassium chloride, and industrial chemicals. Customers pay for chemical quality, reliable supply, and resource access rather than for a recurring software-like service. | High |
| Moat | Salar de Atacama resource access, brine-processing know-how, iodine and nitrate operations, customer qualification, logistics, permits, and long-lived Chilean assets create barriers. Commodity prices and state-policy terms still set the economic ceiling. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management is judged on partnership execution with Codelco, capacity discipline, debt and capex management, and whether it can translate scale into resilient returns rather than simply larger volume. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $4.576 billion and net income attributable to common shareholders was $588.1 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose to $1.760 billion and net income reached $365 million, signaling a stronger comparison period but not a normalized run rate. | High |
| Valuation | At $74.43, the exact check using FY2025 EPS of $2.06 gives 36.13x earnings, 3.74x book value, and 48.65x free cash flow per share. The multiple assumes a meaningful recovery beyond FY2025 cash generation. | High for math; medium for normalization |
| Technical trend | No static moving-average or RSI claim is used because those readings age quickly. Use a live chart to test whether price holds support and can clear recent resistance with volume. | Medium-low |
| Risk level | Risk is high because lithium prices, Chinese supply and demand, Chilean policy, Codelco partnership execution, water and environmental constraints, capex, debt, customer concentration, and foreign exchange can materially change earnings. | High |
| AI confidence | Company disclosures and independent financial data agree for FY2025 revenue and common-shareholder income. Cash reporting has a material third-party difference, so company interim statements are preferred for that item. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | SQM has scarce assets and several businesses, but the margin of safety depends on a conservative lithium-price and capital-intensity assumption, not on the long-term electrification narrative alone. | Medium-low |
SQM AI stock forecast
The SQM AI stock forecast is a conditional three-year valuation exercise, not a promise or analyst target. An exact-arithmetic model starting with FY2025 EPS of $2.06 produced about $90.50 in a bullish case, $38.40 in a base case, and $7.40 in a bearish case. The broad spread shows why lithium pricing, production volumes, capital allocation, and the terminal multiple are more important than a single forecast number.
About $85 to $95
More likely if lithium pricing remains supportive, volumes and realized prices improve, iodine and plant-nutrition businesses remain steady, the Codelco partnership advances on acceptable terms, and annual EPS compounds near 30 percent with a 20x terminal multiple.
About $35 to $45
More likely if earnings grow near 10 percent annually from the FY2025 base, lithium economics improve without repeating peak-cycle margins, capex and leverage remain controlled, and investors apply a 14x terminal multiple.
About $5 to $10
More likely if lithium prices weaken again, supply growth outruns demand, partnership or regulatory costs rise, earnings decline near 20 percent annually, and the market applies a 7x cyclical multiple.
SQM AI technical analysis
SQM AI technical analysis uses the $74.43 NYSE reference reported for July 8, 2026. This static page intentionally does not publish stale moving averages, RSI, or volume figures. Refresh those indicators in a live chart before acting, then use the levels below as a research checklist rather than as trading instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $74.43 on July 8, 2026 | This is the verified regular-session reference used for market-cap and valuation checks. |
| Support | Confirm recent swing lows in a live chart | A support level is only useful when it is refreshed with current price structure, volume, and lithium-market context. |
| Resistance | Confirm recent swing highs in a live chart | A breakout is more credible when it holds above a refreshed resistance zone on stronger volume. |
| Moving averages | Check live 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day averages | Price above rising averages can support a trend thesis, but it does not remove commodity or event risk. |
| Momentum | Use RSI with price structure | An oversold or overbought RSI reading alone is not a reliable reversal signal. |
| Volume | Compare breakouts with recent average volume | Participation matters because lithium and Chile-policy news can cause short-lived price gaps. |
| Volatility | Monitor lithium prices, earnings, and partnership news | Commodity pricing, production guidance, Codelco developments, and regulation can reprice SQM quickly. |
| Invalidation | A close below refreshed support with weaker fundamentals | Treat a break as a prompt to revisit prices, volumes, cash flow, debt, and policy assumptions rather than as automatic trade advice. |
SQM AI trading strategy
The SQM AI trading strategy is a general research framework, not personalized investment advice. It combines refreshed chart evidence with lithium pricing, volume and realized-price trends, iodine and specialty-plant-nutrition performance, cash flow, debt, capex, and Codelco partnership milestones.
Use a trend setup only if SQM clears and holds refreshed resistance with improving volume while lithium pricing, sales volumes, and quarterly cash conversion support the move.
A failed breakout or break below refreshed support requires a reassessment, especially if lithium prices, guidance, or partnership terms deteriorate.
If SQM declines, compare the revised price with conservative EPS and free-cash-flow assumptions, cash, debt, capex, and Codelco execution rather than buying solely because the price is below a prior high.
Do not assume a lithium-related decline is value when supply growth, prices, leverage, or regulatory costs are worsening.
Track lithium sales volumes and prices, iodine and plant-nutrition margins, reported cash and debt, capex, free cash flow, dividend policy, Chilean policy, environmental conditions, and Codelco partnership disclosures.
Position sizing should recognize that SQM is a commodity-linked international issuer with policy and execution risks that can override chart signals.
Investment research summary
Customers pay SQM for lithium chemicals, iodine, specialty plant nutrition, and industrial inputs that meet quality, availability, and logistics requirements. The business turns scarce Chilean mineral and brine resources into commodity and specialty-chemical products.
SQM has resource, process, permit, infrastructure, and customer-qualification advantages, especially in Salar de Atacama and iodine and nitrate operations. The moat lowers barriers but cannot make lithium earnings immune to global supply, prices, or state-partnership terms.
The thesis can fail if lithium prices decline, supply outruns battery demand, Chile changes operating economics, the Codelco partnership constrains returns, water or environmental limits tighten, capex rises, debt increases, or high-cycle capacity earns low returns.
Management must balance output growth with returns, cash generation, leverage, environmental obligations, and Chilean stakeholder alignment. The key-person test is whether those capital-allocation rules survive through a weaker lithium market.
Battery electrification and storage support long-run lithium demand, while iodine and specialty plant nutrition diversify the revenue base. The route from a demand theme to shareholder returns remains cyclical, capital intensive, and exposed to new supply.
At $74.43, SQM trades at 36.13x FY2025 EPS and 48.65x FY2025 free cash flow per share. Margin of safety requires a conservative view of lithium normalization, capex, debt, policy terms, and partnership economics rather than a peak-demand narrative.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SQM price and market capitalization | $74.43 on July 8, 2026 and $21.26 billion market capitalization | StockAnalysis market-cap page | July 11, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding and market-cap verification | 286 million shares; $74.43 x 286 million = $21.29 billion, 0.13 percent from reported market cap | StockAnalysis and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.576 billion, cross-validated against the SQM 20-F and StockAnalysis | SQM 2025 annual report on SEC EDGAR | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 common-shareholder net income | $588.1 million, cross-validated against the SQM 20-F and StockAnalysis | SQM 2025 annual report on SEC EDGAR | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net income | $1.760 billion revenue and $365 million net income | SQM Q1 2026 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and cash equivalents | $2.829 billion in company interim statements; third-party TTM data reports $3.867 billion, so the company amount is used and the 15.5 percent difference is flagged | SQM Q1 2026 interim financial statements | July 11, 2026 |
| Codelco partnership | SQM disclosed completion of the Salar de Atacama joint venture partnership in December 2025 | SQM 2025 annual report | July 11, 2026 |
This SQM page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a solicitation. Forecast scenarios use available data and explicit assumptions, can be wrong, and are not promises of future prices or returns. Verify current filings, market data, and your own suitability before making an investment decision.
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