Albemarle Corporation research snapshot
ALB AI stock analysis reads Albemarle Corporation as a global lithium, bromine, and specialty chemicals business that delivered a strong Q1 2026 but has corrected sharply through June and July 2026 as lithium price expectations reset and several analysts cut price targets. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, ALB closed at $117.64 on July 31, market capitalization was about $13.87 billion, Q1 2026 net sales rose 33 percent, and adjusted EBITDA reached $663.8 million, up 148.5 percent. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 5, 2026 and remain the next major catalyst. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$117.64
Market cap
$13.87 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Strong Q1 2026 results, sharp June-July correction, lithium price scenario still open
Trend status
Bearish short-term trend below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ALB supplies lithium compounds for batteries and specialty applications, bromine-based products, and remaining Ketjen-related activities. Customer demand is linked to EVs, storage, electronics, connectivity, and industrial safety. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from low-cost resources, process know-how, permits, customer qualification, global conversion assets, and bromine scale. It is weakened by commodity pricing and new supply cycles. | Medium-high |
| Management | Kent Masters and team cut $1.3 billion of debt in Q1 2026, closed the Eurecat and Ketjen sales, and are executing a cost and productivity program. The test is whether balance sheet repair and cost discipline survive a softer lithium price environment. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 net sales were $1.43 billion, up 33 percent, with adjusted EBITDA of $663.8 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.95. The full year depends on the $10, $20, or $30 per kg lithium scenario, which spans $0.9 billion to $4.4 billion of adjusted EBITDA. | High |
| Valuation | At $117.64, TTM EPS is negative, price to book is 1.82x, P/FCF is 24.11x, and forward PE is about 8.6x on consensus 2026 adjusted EPS of $12.56. The forward multiple only looks cheap if lithium pricing holds. | Medium |
| Technical trend | ALB is below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 34.6 and a negative ADX structure, so short-term momentum is bearish even though the one-year return remains strongly positive. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because ALB is exposed to lithium spot and contract pricing, EV demand cycles, Chinese supply, Middle East supply chain disruptions, project timing, foreign operations, and mandatory convertible preferred dividends. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for current market data, Q1 2026 results, FY2025 results, balance sheet, analyst targets, and technical inputs; medium for forward normalized earnings because lithium prices can move quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. ALB owns strategic lithium and bromine assets and is deleveraging, but the margin of safety depends on which lithium price scenario the market prices and whether Q2 2026 confirms the Q1 trajectory. | Medium |
ALB AI stock forecast
The ALB AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a single price promise. The company itself frames 2026 around three lithium market price cases: roughly $10, $20, and $30 per kg, implying $0.9 to $4.4 billion of adjusted EBITDA. The bullish case needs lithium prices to hold near Q1 2026 averages, Q2 2026 to confirm strength on August 5, Energy Storage volumes to keep rising, and the stock to reclaim its moving averages. The bearish case becomes more likely if lithium prices roll back toward 2025 levels or Q2 disappoints.
$250 to $290
More likely if lithium market prices hold near Q1 2026 averages, Q2 2026 beats consensus EPS near $3.39, Energy Storage pricing and volumes stay strong, debt keeps falling, and ALB reclaims the $143 to $153 moving-average zone.
$135 to $165
More likely if lithium prices settle in the middle scenario, adjusted EPS lands near consensus of $12.56, free cash flow stays positive, and investors hold ALB near a 10 to 12x forward multiple.
$45 to $70
More likely if lithium prices drift toward the 2025 average near $10 per kg, adjusted EBITDA compresses toward the $0.9 to $1.0 billion scenario, cash flow weakens, or ALB loses the $111 to $116 support zone.
ALB AI technical analysis
ALB AI technical analysis starts from the $117.64 close on July 31, 2026. StockAnalysis and Barchart both reported a 50-day moving average near $143.73 and a 200-day moving average near $152.49, with the stock below both and below the 100-day moving average near $163.45. RSI was about 34.56 and the 14-day ADX was near 38 with negative directional index above positive, pointing to a strong downtrend. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, all levels should be confirmed in a live charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $117.64 | Latest verified close used for this page, reported for July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $111 to $116 | July swing lows near $111.55 to $116.00. A close below this zone would open lower support levels. |
| Near resistance | $121 to $129 | The 20-day moving average near $121.54 and the early-July zone near $128 to $130 are the first overhead hurdles. |
| 50-day moving average | $143.73 | StockAnalysis and Barchart reported the same 50-day snapshot. A reclaim would improve the short-term trend evidence. |
| 100-day moving average | $163.45 | Barchart placed the 100-day trend line near $163.45, well above the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $152.49 | Barchart and StockAnalysis reported the 200-day line near $152.49, so medium-term trend repair needs a large recovery. |
| Momentum | RSI 34.56, ADX 38.36 | RSI is approaching oversold while ADX confirms a strong downtrend, so oversold bounces are possible but not yet confirmed reversals. |
| Volume | 3.65 million shares | July 31 volume was above the 20-day average near 2.1 million, consistent with elevated selling pressure. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.35, 14-day HV ~33% | ALB is more volatile than the broad market and can swing sharply with lithium price and Q2 earnings news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $111.55 | A close below the July swing low would confirm the next leg down; a reclaim of the $143.73 50-day average would signal trend repair. |
ALB AI trading strategy
The ALB AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, stop rules, Q2 2026 results on August 5, and fresh lithium price checks.
Wait for ALB to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $143.73 and then the 200-day moving average near $152.49, while checking whether Q2 2026 results confirm Energy Storage pricing, volumes, and cash conversion.
A failed reclaim or a close below the $111 to $116 support zone should invalidate the setup.
If ALB stabilizes near $111 to $116, compare the price action with lithium market pricing, Q2 2026 results, free cash flow, and debt levels before treating the pullback as oversold.
Do not average down if lithium prices weaken, adjusted EBITDA guidance falls, or the company reduces its outlook scenarios.
Track Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, lithium market price scenarios, Energy Storage volumes and pricing, Specialties margins, capex, free cash flow, total debt, and any change in preferred-share dilution assumptions.
Reduce confidence when price strength is not backed by cash generation, lower leverage, or evidence that demand is absorbing new lithium supply.
Investment research summary
ALB is paid because battery, electronics, industrial, and health-related customers need reliable lithium, bromine, and specialty chemical inputs that meet strict quality and supply requirements.
The moat is based on resource access, process technology, global production assets, customer qualification, regulatory permits, and bromine scale. It is real, but not immune to lithium oversupply or substitution risk.
The thesis can fail if lithium prices retreat, EV battery demand slows, Chinese supply growth resets global pricing, Middle East supply disruptions hurt costs, or preferred dividends and leverage limit common shareholder upside.
Management sold the Eurecat joint venture and a controlling stake in Ketjen, paid down $1.3 billion of debt, and is delivering cost productivity toward a $100 to $150 million full-year target. The next proof point is whether these actions survive a less favorable commodity price environment.
Lithium demand benefits from EVs, storage, power grids, and electronics, while bromine benefits from safety and specialty applications. The long-term demand trend is useful, but commodity supply cycles can dominate stock returns.
The three-scenario model produced about $282 in the bull case, $150 in the base case, and $55 in the bear case from consensus-adjusted EPS power. At $117.64, upside exists if the cycle holds, but downside remains material if lithium prices revert toward 2025 averages.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALB price | $117.64 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $13.87 billion, verified as $117.64 x 117.93 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 117.93 million | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net sales | $1,428.7 million, up 32.7 percent year over year | Albemarle Q1 2026 results release | May 6, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $663.8 million, up 148.5 percent year over year | Albemarle Q1 2026 results release | May 6, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted diluted EPS | $2.95, with GAAP net income to common of $2.34 | Albemarle Q1 2026 results release | May 6, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 free cash flow | $247.6 million after $98.7 million of capital expenditures | Albemarle Q1 2026 results release | May 6, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income to common | Revenue of $5.143 billion and net income to common of negative $677.38 million | Albemarle FY2025 results, cross-checked with StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Total debt and cash | Total debt about $1.9 billion and cash of $1.1 billion at March 31, 2026 after $1.3 billion of debt reduction | Albemarle Q1 2026 results release | May 6, 2026 |
| 2026 outlook scenarios | Net sales of $4.1 to $7.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $0.9 to $4.4 billion across the $10, $20, and $30 per kg lithium cases | Albemarle Q1 2026 results release outlook table | May 6, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $187.16 across 22 analysts, ranging from $83.28 to $250 | StockAnalysis forecast and analyst ratings | July 28, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Forward PE near 8.56x, PS 2.53x, PB 1.82x, P/FCF 24.11x, dividend yield 1.39% | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near $143.73, 200-day near $152.49, RSI 34.56, ADX 38.36 | Barchart and StockAnalysis technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | Scheduled for August 5, 2026 after market close | Albemarle press release | July 7, 2026 |
This ALB AI stock analysis is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 5, 2026. Always verify current filings, market data, lithium prices, and personal suitability before making any investment decision.
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