Vale S.A. research snapshot
VALE AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Vale as a commodity-linked producer executing well on volumes, with the stock at $15.06 at the July 31, 2026 close and a market capitalization near $63.84 billion. Q2 2026 results, released July 30, 2026, showed net operating revenue of $10.5 billion up about 19% year over year, pro forma EBITDA of $4.1 billion up 19%, Vale Base Metals EBITDA up nearly 80% to $1.3 billion, record iron ore production for a second quarter since 2018, and $1.5 billion of free cash flow. The board approved $1.7 billion of dividends and interest on capital for September plus a new buyback of up to 100 million shares, while expanded net debt fell to $16.7 billion. The offset is that iron ore cost guidance was raised because of the stronger real, diesel, and freight, and analysts led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley cut targets on weaker iron ore price assumptions. The VALE AI stock forecast is scenario based because iron ore and copper prices, China demand, Brazilian permitting and reparation obligations, and cost inflation can change outcomes. This information is for research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$15.06
Market cap
$63.84 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Operational momentum with cost and commodity headwinds: record volumes, growing copper optionality, and falling net debt, offset by raised iron ore cost guidance and analyst downgrades on the metal-price outlook
Trend status
Range-bound with a neutral technical posture: price sits above the 200-day average but below the 50-day and 100-day averages, with 14-day RSI near 54.5 and ADX near 12
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Vale sells iron ore, pellets, copper, nickel, and logistics capacity into global steel and industrial supply chains. Its cash generation is commodity linked, not recurring like a subscription business, though Q2 2026 volumes were the strongest in years. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built on large ore bodies, the Northern System and S11D, rail and port infrastructure, processing capability, mineral rights, technical know-how, and long permitting lead times. It does not set commodity prices. | High |
| Management | CEO Gustavo Pimenta and the board are delivering on operational excellence, record production, disciplined capital allocation, and shareholder returns, while Vale Base Metals is being restructured to grow copper. Execution, reparation, and capital discipline still need to be proven over the cycle. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net operating revenue was $10.5 billion up about 19% year over year, pro forma EBITDA was $4.1 billion up 19%, and Vale Base Metals EBITDA rose nearly 80% to $1.3 billion. Net income attributable to Vale shareholders was $1.375 billion, down from $2.117 billion a year earlier, and 2026 iron ore cost guidance was raised. | High, with earnings-quality caveat |
| Valuation | At the July 31 close of $15.06, trailing PE was about 31.9 on distorted reported earnings, forward PE near 7.2, price to book about 1.6, price to trailing free cash flow about 17.3, EV/EBITDA about 8.1, and dividend yield about 6.0%. | High for math; medium for normalized earnings |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close was 16.1% below the $17.94 52-week high and 60.9% above the $9.36 52-week low. Price was above the 200-day average near $14.81 but below the 50-day near $15.23 and 100-day near $15.71, a mixed range-bound posture. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include iron ore, copper, and nickel price declines, China steel demand, a stronger Brazilian real, diesel and freight costs, tailings and reparation obligations, Brazilian licensing and tax changes, weather, logistics disruption, and base-metals execution. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported company data and share-market arithmetic are well documented. Forecast confidence is lower because commodity prices, technical levels, and normalized earnings can change rapidly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | VALE can offer cash-flow leverage to stronger iron ore and copper markets, but it is not a stable compounder. A margin of safety needs to account for cycle, foreign-exchange, and liability risk, not only a low-looking forward multiple. | Medium-low |
VALE AI stock forecast
The VALE AI stock forecast starts with the $15.06 July 31, 2026 close and a forward consensus EPS base of roughly $2.10 in U.S. dollars, implied by the near 7.2 forward PE. A three-year mechanical model using 8%, 3%, and negative 8% EPS growth with 8x, 6.5x, and 5x terminal multiples produced approximately $19 to $23, $13 to $16, and $7 to $9 before dividends. Those outputs sit inside the current analyst target range of $12 to $21 and are a scenario framework, not a price promise or an analyst target.
About $19 to $23 before dividends
More likely if iron ore and copper prices hold or rise, volumes keep setting records, Vale Base Metals costs stay low, the real stabilizes, and investors pay a higher multiple for copper growth. A higher outcome would require a different, independently verified normalized-earnings base.
About $13 to $16 before dividends
More likely if forward EPS grows in the low single digits from the roughly $2.10 base, iron ore remains adequate but not exceptional, raised cost guidance holds, and the market keeps a mid single-digit cyclical multiple.
About $7 to $9 before dividends
More likely if iron ore or copper weakens, China-linked demand falls, reparation or tax costs rise, nickel stays uneconomic, volumes miss plan, the real strengthens further, and the market discounts earnings at a low multiple.
VALE AI technical analysis
VALE AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 NYSE close of $15.06 and the 52-week range of $9.36 to $17.94. The 200-day average was near $14.81 and the 20-day near $14.57, both below price, while the 50-day near $15.23 and 100-day near $15.71 were overhead. Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 54.5 and 14-day ADX near 12, indicating a range rather than a strong trend. Treat the zones below as review references, not predictions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $15.06 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis listed this NYSE regular-session close. It is the price used in the market-cap and valuation checks. |
| Near support | $14.50 to $14.85 | The 20-day average near $14.57, the 5-day near $14.84, and the 200-day near $14.81 formed a support cluster beneath the July 31 close. |
| Support reference | 52-week low near $9.36 | This is a long-range reference rather than a near-term floor. Confirm recent swing lows and volume on a current daily chart. |
| Near resistance | $15.23 to $15.71 | The 50-day average near $15.23 and the 100-day average near $15.71 sat above the close, and a reclaim would be needed to rebuild upside momentum. |
| Resistance reference | 52-week high near $17.94 | The latest close was below this prior high. A move toward or through it needs price and volume confirmation. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $14.57, 50-day $15.23, 100-day $15.71, 200-day $14.81 | Barchart and StockAnalysis reported these averages on July 31, 2026. Trend evidence improves when price holds above rising averages and mining inputs remain supportive. |
| Momentum | RSI near 54.5, ADX near 12 | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 54.5, which is neutral, and 14-day ADX near 12, which points to a range rather than a trend. Check whether momentum and price agree near support or resistance. |
| Volume | About 21.5 million to 22.1 million average shares | StockAnalysis reported about 21.5 million and Barchart about 22.1 million in 20-day average volume. Acceptance above resistance on heavier volume is more informative than an intraday spike. |
| Volatility | Elevated, near 27% historical volatility | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 26.7% and 14-day ATR near $0.37. Metal prices, production reports, safety events, Brazilian policy, and reparation news can reprice VALE quickly. |
| Invalidation | A close below the $14.50 to $14.85 support cluster with weaker fundamentals | This is a monitoring condition, not a personalized stop. Refresh the chart and thesis inputs before taking risk. |
VALE AI trading strategy
The VALE AI trading strategy is a general monitoring framework, not personalized investment advice. It combines price structure with iron ore and copper prices, China steel indicators, quarterly production and sales, realized prices, C1 and all-in costs, free cash flow, expanded net debt, shareholder returns, reparation, and base-metals milestones.
Use a trend setup only after price reclaims the 50-day and 100-day averages near $15.23 to $15.71 on volume and the iron ore, copper, production, and cost backdrop remains supportive.
A failed move at overhead resistance or a close below the $14.50 to $14.85 support cluster warrants reassessment, especially if iron ore weakens, production guidance falls, or safety and regulatory risk increases.
If VALE retraces toward the $14.50 to $14.85 support cluster, compare the revised price with normalized cash-generation assumptions, net debt, capital needs, reparation obligations, and commodity inputs rather than buying solely because it is below a prior high.
Do not assume every decline is value if the metal-price deck, tax and reparation burden, or base-metals economics deteriorates.
Track iron ore output and sales, copper and nickel volumes, realized prices, C1 and all-in costs, copper all-in costs, recurring free cash flow, expanded net debt, dividends, buybacks, dam de-characterization, Fábrica and Vega restarts, and licensing.
Use position sizing that acknowledges a Brazilian commodity producer can move sharply with prices, foreign exchange, and company-specific liability news.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Vale for reliable volumes of iron ore and other metals that feed steel, infrastructure, power, and industrial supply chains. Ore quality, mines, plants, railways, ports, and operating expertise turn resources into commodity-linked cash flow.
Vale has a resource and infrastructure moat, especially in the Northern System and S11D, with difficult-to-replicate rail and port assets and long development timelines. The moat can lower cost and secure supply, but it cannot protect earnings from iron ore or copper cycles.
The thesis can fail through lower Chinese steel demand, excess global iron ore supply, price or foreign-exchange moves, diesel and freight inflation, weather and logistics interruptions, safety incidents, tailings reparation, regulatory action, higher tax, or base-metals projects that do not earn their cost of capital.
Management must sustain safety, community trust, and operational reliability while funding iron ore capacity and making copper and nickel more valuable. Q2 2026 record volumes, a $1.7 billion dividend approval, and a new 100 million share buyback support the capital-allocation case. The key-person test is whether discipline endures beyond any executive.
Iron ore remains tied to global steel demand and China, while copper and nickel offer longer-term electrification exposure. That structural theme does not eliminate cyclicality, nor does it assure that every critical-minerals investment earns an attractive return.
At $15.06, the market price embeds a recovery relative to reported earnings, with a near 7.2 forward multiple and about a 6.0% dividend yield. Margin of safety should be judged against normalized cash flow, capital needs, liabilities, and conservative commodity assumptions, rather than a single reported earnings multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VALE price and market-cap verification | $15.06 July 31, 2026 close. StockAnalysis reports a $63.84 billion market cap; $15.06 x 4.26 billion shares gives about $64.16 billion, a roughly 0.5% variance retained as a share-count basis difference. | StockAnalysis VALE quote and market cap | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net operating revenue | $10.498 billion in the quarter, up from about $8.8 billion a year earlier, roughly 19% higher, with Iron Ore Solutions at $7.888 billion and Vale Base Metals at $2.610 billion. | Vale Q2 2026 6-K | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 pro forma EBITDA | $4.1 billion, up 19% year over year, with Vale Base Metals EBITDA of $1.3 billion up nearly 80%. The 6-K reported adjusted EBITDA of $3.676 billion and segment EBITDA of $3.056 billion for Iron Ore Solutions and $1.289 billion for Vale Base Metals. | Vale Q2 2026 earnings call and 6-K | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income and EPS | Net income attributable to Vale shareholders was $1.375 billion, down from $2.117 billion a year earlier, with basic EPS of $0.32 versus $0.50. Zacks reported adjusted EPS of $0.36 against a $0.41 consensus. | Vale Q2 2026 6-K and Nasdaq/Zacks | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 production and sales | Iron ore production reached the highest second-quarter level since 2018 with sales up 3% year over year. Copper production rose 6% with sales up 10%, and nickel production rose 4% with sales up 7%. | Vale Q2 2026 earnings call | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash generation | Free cash flow of $1.5 billion, capex of $1.1 billion, and expanded net debt of $16.7 billion, down more than $1.1 billion from the prior quarter and moving toward the $15 billion reference level. | Vale Q2 2026 earnings call | July 31, 2026 |
| Shareholder returns | The board approved $1.7 billion in dividends and interest on capital for September, bought back $140 million of shares in the quarter for $214 million year to date, and approved a new buyback of up to 100 million shares over 18 months, about 2.3% of shares outstanding. | Vale Q2 2026 earnings call | July 31, 2026 |
| Iron ore cost guidance | 2026 C1 cash cost guidance, excluding third-party purchases, was raised to $22.50 to $23.50 per ton from $20 to $21.50, and all-in cost guidance to $58 to $62 per ton from $52 to $56, with about 70% of the increase from foreign exchange and diesel. Q2 C1 was $24.10 and all-in was $61.60 per ton. | Vale Q2 2026 earnings call | July 31, 2026 |
| Base-metals cost guidance | 2026 copper all-in cost guidance was lowered to zero to $500 per ton from $1,000 to $1,500, with Q2 at negative $300 per ton. Nickel all-in cost guidance was lowered to $10,000 to $11,500 per ton from $12,000 to $13,500, with Q2 at $10,300. | Vale Q2 2026 earnings call | July 31, 2026 |
| Growth projects | Serra Sul +20 adds about 20 million tons of capacity with the S11D second conveyor commissioned in July. The Bacaba copper project, with 50,000 tons of capacity, moved commissioning ahead to Q3 2027, is about 40% progressed, and supports a target to roughly double copper output by 2035. | Vale Q2 2026 earnings call | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $38.403 billion, up 0.91% from $38.056 billion, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL for FY2025 revenue. | StockAnalysis financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 attributable net income | $2.352 billion company-reported, with StockAnalysis standardized net income of $1.983 billion and SEC EDGAR XBRL profit of $1.983 billion, a presentation and definition difference retained as a limitation rather than averaged. | Vale 2025 Annual Report and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| June 30, 2026 cash and debt | Cash and cash equivalents of $5.577 billion at June 30, 2026 per the Q2 2026 6-K. Total borrowings of $18.304 billion plus leases of $0.634 billion. StockAnalysis reports total debt of about $21.23 billion under a broader classification that includes streaming and other financial liabilities, and net cash of negative $15.47 billion. | Vale Q2 2026 6-K and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 31, 2026 |
| June 30, 2026 total assets and equity | Total assets of $89.279 billion, total liabilities of $50.333 billion, equity attributable to Vale shareholders of $38.011 billion, and total equity of $38.946 billion, matching the Q2 2026 6-K. | Vale Q2 2026 6-K | July 31, 2026 |
| Trailing twelve-month statistics | Revenue of $42.09 billion, net income of $2.00 billion, EPS of $0.47, operating cash flow of $9.96 billion, capital expenditures of $6.27 billion, and free cash flow of $3.69 billion per the StockAnalysis statistics page. | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Trailing PE of 31.90 on reported earnings, forward PE of 7.16, price to sales of 1.52, price to book of 1.64, price to trailing free cash flow of 17.30, EV/EBITDA of 8.05, and dividend yield of 6.01%. | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating across 25 analysts with an average price target of $16.87, a low of $12 and a high of $21, and a median of $16.50. July 2026 mix was 8 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 14 Hold, and 0 Sell. | StockAnalysis forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | BofA maintained Buy on July 31, Scotiabank held at $16 on July 31, JPMorgan raised to $21 from $20 on July 27 while holding Neutral, Goldman Sachs downgraded to Hold with a cut to $16 from $18 on July 27, and RBC reiterated $15 on July 24. Earlier in July, Morgan Stanley downgraded to Equal Weight with a cut to $16.50 from $19.50. | StockAnalysis forecast and TipRanks | July 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | 58.50 million shares short, 1.37% of shares outstanding and 1.48% of float, with about 2.52 days to cover. | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day average near $14.57, 50-day near $15.23, 100-day near $15.71, 200-day near $14.81, 14-day RSI near 54.5, 14-day ADX near 12, and 14-day historical volatility near 26.7%. | Barchart and StockAnalysis technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenario illustrations based on available data and may be wrong. Verify primary sources and consider independent professional advice before making an investment decision.
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