StoneX Group Inc. research snapshot
SNEX AI stock analysis currently views StoneX Group as a global financial services network that earns net operating revenue from derivatives, securities, physical commodities, foreign exchange, payments, and client-balance economics. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest available close was $76.57 on July 31, 2026, with a mechanically calculated market capitalization near $9.10 billion using 118.88 million shares. Two three-for-two stock splits took effect in fiscal 2026, on March 23 and July 20, and all per-share figures on this page use the current post-split basis. FY2025 net operating revenue was $2.053 billion and net income was $305.9 million. Fiscal Q2 2026 net operating revenue reached a record $829.1 million and net income reached $174.3 million, helped by the R.J. O’Brien acquisition and strong client activity. The SNEX AI stock forecast therefore uses conditional ranges rather than a guaranteed target, and fiscal Q3 2026 results are scheduled for August 5, 2026. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$76.57 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$9.10 billion calculated ($76.57 x 118.88 million shares), matching the reported $9.10 billion reference
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Record fiscal 2026 operating momentum and a broad market infrastructure franchise, balanced by a sharp pullback from the 52-week high, acquisition integration, regulatory and market-cycle risk, and thin analyst coverage
Trend status
Long-term uptrend remains above the 200-day average, but price has pulled back below the 50-day average after reaching a high near $94.66 and now sits at a key resistance zone near $76.60
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | StoneX connects commercial, institutional, self-directed and retail, and payments clients through execution, clearing, risk management, and payment platforms. The company reports more than 5,400 employees serving clients in more than 180 countries, with four operating segments: Commercial, Institutional, Self-Directed/Retail, and Payments. | High |
| Moat | The moat is based on regulated licenses, global market access, clearing and risk infrastructure, client relationships, product breadth, and scale across futures, OTC derivatives, securities, commodities, FX, and payments. It is real but not unassailable, because banks, brokers, exchanges, and specialized fintechs compete on price, balance sheet, technology, and service. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Philip Smith and CFO William Dunaway signed the fiscal Q2 2026 Form 10-Q on May 6, 2026. Management has emphasized R.J. O’Brien integration, platform connectivity, and client service. Execution quality and risk discipline matter more than headline revenue growth. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Net operating revenue grew from $1.150 billion in FY2021 to $2.053 billion in FY2025. FY2025 net operating revenue rose 16% and net income rose 17% to $305.9 million. Q2 FY2026 net operating revenue rose 70% to a record $829.1 million and net income rose 143% to $174.3 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $76.57, the verified snapshot was about 20.3x TTM EPS and 3.36x book value, with forward PE near 15.6x per StockAnalysis. Reported FCF produces a low 1.40x P/FCF, but working-capital swings from client and trading balances make that metric less comparable than it is for a normal operating company. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31 snapshot showed price near $76.57, below the 50-day average near $79.36 and above the 200-day average near $58.50. RSI near 49.5 suggested neutral momentum, and the stock had pulled back about 19% from its 52-week high near $94.66. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because StoneX combines market-making and client-balance exposure with regulated subsidiaries, counterparty default risk, acquisition integration, cybersecurity obligations, and significant financing and collateral flows. Q2 FY2026 bad debt expense also rose to $12.4 million from $0.1 million a year earlier. | High |
| AI confidence | The historical facts are well documented, but AI cannot reliably forecast trading volumes, market volatility, client defaults, interest rates, RJO synergies, or future multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The platform and growth record are visible, but a meaningful portion of earnings depends on market conditions and operating leverage that can reverse. | Medium |
SNEX AI stock forecast
The SNEX AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model around the $76.57 July 31, 2026 close and $3.77 TTM EPS. Using exact arithmetic, the model produced about $127 in a bullish case, $95 in a base case, and $52 in a bearish case. These are conditional outputs, not price targets or promises. Fiscal Q3 2026 results are scheduled for August 5, 2026 and are a near-term catalyst.
$120 to $135 over three years
More likely if Q3 and H2 fiscal 2026 results stay strong, R.J. O’Brien synergies arrive, listed and OTC derivatives remain active, securities and physical trading retain strong margins, client balances support interest and fee income, and EPS compounds near 12% with a 24x multiple.
$90 to $100 over three years
More likely if integration is broadly successful, volume normalizes without collapsing, regulatory capital remains adequate, payments and institutional businesses grow steadily, and EPS compounds near 8% with a 20x multiple.
$45 to $58 over three years
More likely if market activity and client balances weaken, R.J. O’Brien requires more capital or loses clients, counterparty losses rise, regulation increases costs, and EPS declines near 5% annually with a 16x multiple.
SNEX AI technical analysis
SNEX AI technical analysis at the July 31, 2026 close showed a long-term uptrend with short-term consolidation and a pullback from the June 2026 high. ChartMill reported a $76.57 close, a 50-day simple moving average near $79.36, a 200-day average near $58.50, and RSI near 49.46. The stock traded within a last-month range of about $68.00 to $84.23 and closed right at a resistance zone near $76.58 to $77.62. Refresh the live chart before using any level, and treat the August 5, 2026 fiscal Q3 earnings release as a near-term catalyst.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $76.57 | ChartMill closing snapshot for July 31, 2026. This is a dated reference, not a live quote. |
| Near support | $71 to $73 | ChartMill reported a daily trend-line support near $71.29 and the 100-day average is near $71.09. Confirm with current daily closes and volume. |
| Major support | $68.66 to $69.10 | ChartMill reported a support zone formed by multiple trend lines across time frames. A sustained break would weaken the intermediate trend and open the $57.06 to $57.33 zone. |
| Near resistance | $76.58 to $77.62 | ChartMill reported this resistance zone and the stock closed inside it on July 31. A recovery needs a sustained close above it with improving participation. |
| Major resistance | $84 to $94.66 | The last-month high was near $84.23 and the 52-week and 13-week high was near $94.66. A sustained breakout would need confirmation rather than a single move. |
| 50-day moving average | About $79.36 | ChartMill and StockAnalysis July 31 snapshot. Price was below this average, so it acted as a short-term decision level. |
| 200-day moving average | About $58.50 | ChartMill and StockAnalysis July 31 snapshot. The gap above this average reflects a strong longer-term run and also leaves room for multiple compression. |
| Momentum | RSI near 49.46 | ChartMill July 31 snapshot. Momentum was neutral; the daily MACD was positive near 0.32 while the weekly MACD was negative near -1.36. |
| Volume and volatility | Average volume near 0.94 to 1.08 million shares; ATR near 4.9% of price | ChartMill reported average volume near 935,000 shares and ATR percentage near 4.89%, while StockAnalysis reported 20-day average volume near 1.08 million shares. |
| Invalidation | Sustained closes below $68.66, then the $57.06 zone | A break through both support areas would invalidate the constructive trend framework and require a new review of earnings and risk. |
SNEX AI trading strategy
The SNEX AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a complex financial intermediary. It is not personal advice. Refresh price, volume, earnings, client balances, regulatory disclosures, and position-sizing rules before acting, especially ahead of the August 5, 2026 fiscal Q3 earnings release.
Wait for SNEX to reclaim and hold the $76.60 to $79.40 area around the current resistance and the 50-day average, then assess whether a move toward $84 and the $94.66 high zone is supported by volume and a stable earnings outlook.
A sustained close below the $71 to $73 zone, weak Q3 activity, or an integration or risk-control surprise should reduce confidence. Avoid treating a single high-volume move as confirmation.
If SNEX revisits the $68.66 to $69.10 support zone, compare the price with updated EPS, RJO client retention, net operating revenue by segment, capital ratios, and counterparty disclosures before viewing the pullback as a valuation opportunity.
Do not average down solely because the stock is below a moving average. Financial intermediaries can gap through technical support when market or counterparty risk changes.
Track the August 5 fiscal Q3 release, listed and OTC contract volumes, securities and physical revenue, average client equity, interest and fee income, payments volumes, RJO synergies, bad debt, liquidity, senior secured borrowings, regulatory capital, and share count.
Reduce confidence if volume growth becomes acquisition-dependent, client balances fall, bad debt rises, capital needs increase, regulatory costs expand, or management misses integration milestones.
Investment research summary
StoneX is a market access and risk infrastructure business. Clients pay for execution, clearing, liquidity, market intelligence, hedging, payments, custody, and related services across derivatives, securities, commodities, FX, and global payments. Its four operating segments are Commercial, Institutional, Self-Directed/Retail, and Payments. The business is less about one consumer product and more about being a trusted counterparty embedded in complex market workflows.
The moat combines regulated licenses, capital and risk systems, client relationships, global market access, product breadth, and operating scale. The company reports more than 5,400 employees serving clients in more than 180 countries, and its payments business operates in more than 180 countries and 140 currencies. Switching costs are meaningful for institutional and commercial workflows, but banks, brokers, exchanges, and specialized fintechs can compete on price, balance sheet, technology, and service.
The thesis can fail through a market-volume downturn, counterparty default, bad market-making positions, a cyber or operational incident, regulatory sanctions, loss of key personnel, R.J. O’Brien client attrition, integration costs, or rising capital requirements. Q2 FY2026 bad debt expense jumped to $12.4 million from $0.1 million a year earlier, a reminder that credit and market risk scale with activity. A BTIG trade-secrets arbitration was resolved during the first half of fiscal 2026 with an immaterial net payment. Two stock splits do not change the underlying economics.
Philip Smith signed the fiscal Q2 2026 Form 10-Q as Chief Executive Officer on May 6, 2026, alongside Chief Financial Officer William Dunaway. The R.J. O’Brien acquisition was effective July 31, 2025 and added $213.5 million of operating revenue and $20.9 million of net income in Q2 FY2026. Management quality will be judged by integration, capital discipline, risk controls, and client retention, not only by the first full-year revenue contribution.
Global markets are becoming more electronic, fragmented, regulated, and data intensive. Commercial firms need hedging and payments, institutions need execution and financing, and retail clients need digital market access. That supports long-term demand for StoneX services, but technology, exchanges, banks, and specialized brokers continue to compete aggressively. The industry is important infrastructure, not a guaranteed secular growth market.
At $76.57, the audited snapshot was about 20.3x TTM EPS and 3.36x book value, with forward PE near 15.6x per StockAnalysis. Reported FCF implied 1.40x P/FCF, but that ratio is distorted by large changes in trading assets, securities borrowed, client payables, and other balance-sheet items. The better margin-of-safety questions are whether Q3 earnings normalize without collapsing, whether RJO synergies exceed integration costs, and whether capital and risk requirements stay manageable.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNEX price, shares, and calculated market capitalization | $76.57 closing price on July 31, 2026; 118.88 million shares; calculated market capitalization of $9.10 billion | ChartMill technical snapshot and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $76.57 x 118.88 million shares equals $9.10 billion. The StockAnalysis reference of $9.10 billion and the Macrotrends reference of $9.102 billion differed by 0.03%. | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification, StockAnalysis statistics, and Macrotrends | August 3, 2026 |
| Stock splits in fiscal 2026 | Two 3-for-2 stock splits. The first was approved on February 3, 2026 and trading began split-adjusted on March 23, 2026. A second 3-for-2 split took effect on July 20, 2026. | StoneX fiscal Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis corporate actions | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 financial trend | Net operating revenue was $2.053 billion, up 16%; net income was $305.9 million, up 17%; diluted EPS was about $2.62 on the current post-split share basis; ROE near 15.6%. | StoneX 2025 Annual Report, SEC Form 10-K, and StockAnalysis annual tables | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 cross-validation | Net operating revenue matched at $2,052.8 million in the annual report versus $2,053.0 million in StockAnalysis. Macrotrends net income of $296 million differs by about 3% from the $305.9 million GAAP net income and is treated as a presentation or attributable-earnings difference. | StoneX 2025 Annual Report, Macrotrends, StockAnalysis, and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 results | Quarterly net operating revenue was $829.1 million, up 70%; net income was $174.3 million, up 143%; diluted EPS was $2.07, adjusted for the March 2026 split, or $1.38 on the current post-July-split basis. | StoneX fiscal Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| H1 FY2026 results | Six-month net operating revenue was $1,553.5 million, up from $979.4 million; net income was $313.3 million, up from $156.8 million; diluted EPS was $3.74, adjusted for the March 2026 split. | StoneX fiscal Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| R.J. O’Brien contribution | Q2 FY2026 included $213.5 million of RJO operating revenue and $20.9 million of RJO net income. H1 FY2026 included $414.5 million of RJO operating revenue and $40.3 million of RJO net income. | StoneX fiscal Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and equity at March 31, 2026 | $2,122.6 million cash and equivalents, $1,160.3 million senior secured borrowings, $564.8 million payables to lenders under loans, and $2,699 million stockholders’ equity. Total assets were $53.6 billion. Client cash and trading balances dominate the balance sheet. | StoneX Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation verification | At $76.57 and $3.77 TTM EPS, PE was about 20.3x. At $22.77 book value per share, PB was 3.36x. Forward PE was 15.64x per StockAnalysis. Reported FCF per share of $54.55 produced 1.40x P/FCF, but the cash-flow metric is distorted by trading balance changes. | StockAnalysis statistics and cash-flow tables plus financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst view | Two analysts cover SNEX with an average Buy rating and a $112.00 price target. Jefferies downgraded to Hold on July 20, 2026 with a target of $112, down from $123. GF Securities initiated Buy with a $155 target on July 14, 2026. | StockAnalysis forecast page and news | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | Price $76.57, 50-day SMA about $79.36, 200-day SMA about $58.50, RSI about 49.5, 20-day average volume near 0.94 to 1.08 million shares, and ATR near 4.9% of price. The stock traded in a last-month range near $68.00 to $84.23 and pulled back from a 52-week high near $94.66. | ChartMill and StockAnalysis technical statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Next catalyst | Fiscal Q3 2026 results are scheduled for release after market close on August 5, 2026, after the data cutoff for this page. | StockAnalysis earnings calendar and StoneX press release | August 3, 2026 |
This SNEX AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell StoneX Group stock. Forecasts are conditional scenarios based on available public data and can be wrong. Verify live data, filings, personal risk tolerance, and constraints before making investment decisions.
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