StoneX Group Inc. research snapshot
SNEX AI stock analysis currently views StoneX Group as a global financial services network that earns net operating revenue from derivatives, securities, physical commodities, foreign exchange, payments, and client-balance economics. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest available close was $117.72 on July 10, with a mechanically calculated market capitalization near $9.33 billion using 79.25 million shares. FY2025 net operating revenue was $2.053 billion and net income was $305.9 million. Fiscal Q2 2026 net operating revenue reached a record $829.1 million and net income reached $174.3 million, helped by the R.J. O’Brien acquisition and strong client activity. The SNEX AI stock forecast therefore uses conditional ranges rather than a guaranteed target. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$117.72 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$9.33 billion calculated ($117.72 x 79.25 million shares); a $9.72 billion July 9 reference was also reported
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Strong operating momentum and a broad market infrastructure franchise, balanced by acquisition, regulatory, market-cycle, and balance-sheet complexity
Trend status
Long-term trend remains above the 200-day average, while price is consolidating around the 50-day average after a sharp first-half rally
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | StoneX connects more than 80,000 commercial, institutional, and payments clients plus more than 400,000 retail accounts to global markets through execution, clearing, risk management, payments, and digital platforms. | High |
| Moat | The moat is based on regulated licenses, market access, client relationships, risk infrastructure, product breadth, and scale across more than 40 derivatives exchanges and over 180 countries. It is real but not unassailable. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Philip Smith brings long internal experience and has emphasized connected platforms, client service, and the R.J. O’Brien integration. Execution quality and risk discipline matter more than headline revenue growth. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net operating revenue rose 16% to $2.053 billion and net income rose 17% to $305.9 million. Q2 FY2026 net operating revenue rose 70% to $829.1 million and net income rose 143% to $174.3 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $117.72, the verified snapshot was about 20.8x TTM EPS and 3.45x book value. Reported FCF produces a low 1.44x P/FCF, but working-capital swings from client and trading balances make that metric less comparable than it is for a normal operating company. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 10 snapshot showed price near $117.72, just below the 50-day average near $119.22 and well above the 200-day average near $84.34. RSI near 44 suggested cooling momentum rather than an overbought reading. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because StoneX combines market-making and client-balance exposure with regulated subsidiaries, counterparty risk, acquisition integration, cybersecurity obligations, and significant financing and collateral flows. | High |
| AI confidence | The historical facts are well documented, but AI cannot reliably forecast trading volumes, market volatility, client defaults, interest rates, RJO synergies, or future multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The platform and growth record are visible, but a meaningful portion of earnings depends on market conditions and operating leverage that can reverse. | Medium |
SNEX AI stock forecast
The SNEX AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model around the $117.72 July 10, 2026 close and $5.65 TTM EPS. Using exact arithmetic, the model produced about $190.5 in a bullish case, $142.3 in a base case, and $77.5 in a bearish case. These are conditional outputs, not price targets or promises.
$180 to $200 over three years
More likely if R.J. O’Brien synergies arrive, listed and OTC derivatives remain active, securities and physical trading retain strong margins, client balances support interest and fee income, and EPS compounds near 12% with a 24x multiple.
$135 to $150 over three years
More likely if integration is broadly successful, volume normalizes without collapsing, regulatory capital remains adequate, payments and institutional businesses grow steadily, and EPS compounds near 8% with a 20x multiple.
$70 to $85 over three years
More likely if market activity and client balances weaken, R.J. O’Brien requires more capital or loses clients, counterparty losses rise, regulation increases costs, and EPS declines near 5% annually with a 16x multiple.
SNEX AI technical analysis
SNEX AI technical analysis at the July 10, 2026 close showed a long-term uptrend with short-term consolidation. ChartMill reported a $117.72 close, a 50-day simple moving average near $119.22, a 200-day average near $84.34, and RSI near 44.24. Recent price action also showed a June high near $141.99, so the stock remained volatile despite the cooling short-term momentum. Refresh the live chart before using any level.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $117.72 | ChartMill closing snapshot for July 10, 2026. This is a dated reference, not a live quote. |
| Near support | $110 to $115 | A practical first support zone from the recent July pullback structure. Confirm with current daily closes and volume. |
| Major support | $97 to $105 | This zone is below the current price and near prior consolidation and chart support readings. A break would weaken the intermediate trend. |
| Near resistance | $123 to $130 | A recovery through the recent July price area would need to hold above the 50-day average and show improving participation. |
| Major resistance | $138 to $142 | This brackets the June 2026 swing-high area near $141.99. A sustained breakout would need confirmation rather than a single intraday move. |
| 50-day moving average | About $119.22 | ChartMill July 10, 2026 snapshot. Price was slightly below this average, so it acted as a short-term decision level. |
| 200-day moving average | About $84.34 | ChartMill July 10, 2026 snapshot. The large gap above this average reflects a strong longer-term run and also leaves room for multiple compression. |
| Momentum | RSI near 44.24 | ChartMill July 10, 2026 snapshot. Momentum had cooled toward neutral and was not deeply oversold. |
| Volume and volatility | Recent average volume near 1.2 million shares; ATR about 3% of price | StockAnalysis reported average 20-day volume near 1.20 million shares, while ChartMill reported ATR percentage near 3.08%. |
| Invalidation | Sustained closes below $97, then the $84 long-term average | A break through both support areas would invalidate the constructive trend framework and require a new review of earnings and risk. |
SNEX AI trading strategy
The SNEX AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a complex financial intermediary. It is not personal advice. Refresh price, volume, earnings, client balances, regulatory disclosures, and position-sizing rules before acting.
Wait for SNEX to reclaim and hold the $119 to $123 area around the 50-day average, then assess whether a move toward $130 and the $138 to $142 high zone is supported by volume and a stable earnings outlook.
A sustained close below the $110 to $115 zone, weaker Q3 activity, or an integration or risk-control surprise should reduce confidence. Avoid treating a single high-volume gap as confirmation.
If SNEX revisits the $97 to $105 support zone, compare the price with updated EPS, RJO client retention, net operating revenue by segment, capital ratios, and counterparty disclosures before viewing the pullback as a valuation opportunity.
Do not average down solely because the stock is below a moving average. Financial intermediaries can gap through technical support when market or counterparty risk changes.
Track listed and OTC contract volumes, securities and physical revenue, average client equity, interest and fee income, payments volumes, RJO synergies, bad debt, liquidity, senior secured borrowings, regulatory capital, and share count.
Reduce confidence if volume growth becomes acquisition-dependent, client balances fall, bad debt rises, capital needs increase, regulatory costs expand, or management misses integration milestones.
Investment research summary
StoneX is a market access and risk infrastructure business. Clients pay for execution, clearing, liquidity, market intelligence, hedging, payments, custody, and related services across derivatives, securities, commodities, FX, and global payments. Its four operating segments are Commercial, Institutional, Self-Directed/Retail, and Payments. The business is less about one consumer product and more about being a trusted counterparty embedded in complex market workflows.
The moat combines regulated licenses, capital and risk systems, client relationships, global market access, product breadth, and operating scale. StoneX reported more than 5,400 employees, over 80 offices, access to more than 40 derivatives exchanges, and clients in over 180 countries. Switching costs are meaningful for institutional and commercial workflows, but banks, brokers, exchanges, and specialized fintechs can compete on price, balance sheet, technology, and service.
The thesis can fail through a market-volume downturn, counterparty default, bad market-making positions, a cyber or operational incident, regulatory sanctions, loss of key personnel, R.J. O’Brien client attrition, integration costs, or rising capital requirements. The 2025 annual report also disclosed a material weakness in internal control over financial reporting related to the presentation of certain repurchase and reverse-repurchase transactions. That disclosure is a reminder that operational integrity matters as much as growth.
Philip Smith became Group CEO in December 2024 after a long career inside StoneX and its predecessor businesses. The R.J. O’Brien deal was completed on July 31, 2025 and was intended to add scale in global derivatives, client relationships, and cross-selling. Q2 FY2026 included $213.5 million of RJO operating revenue and $20.9 million of RJO net income. Management quality will be judged by integration, capital discipline, risk controls, and client retention, not only by the first full-year revenue contribution.
Global markets are becoming more electronic, fragmented, regulated, and data intensive. Commercial firms need hedging and payments, institutions need execution and financing, and retail clients need digital market access. That supports long-term demand for StoneX services, but technology, exchanges, banks, and specialized brokers continue to compete aggressively. The industry is important infrastructure, not a guaranteed secular growth market.
At $117.72, the audited snapshot was about 20.84x TTM EPS and 3.45x book value. Reported FCF implied 1.44x P/FCF, but that ratio is distorted by large changes in trading assets, securities borrowed, client payables, and other balance-sheet items. The better margin-of-safety questions are whether Q2 earnings normalize without collapsing, whether RJO synergies exceed integration costs, and whether capital and risk requirements stay manageable.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNEX price, shares, and calculated market capitalization | $117.72 closing price on July 10, 2026; 79.25 million shares; calculated market capitalization of $9.33 billion | ChartMill technical snapshot and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $117.72 x 79.25 million shares equals $9.33 billion. The $9.72 billion StockAnalysis reference differed by 4.02%, consistent with a different quote timestamp. | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 financial trend | Net operating revenue was $2.053 billion, up 16%; net income was $305.9 million, up 17%; diluted EPS was $5.89; ROE was 15.6%. | StoneX 2025 Annual Report, SEC Form 10-K, and StockAnalysis annual tables | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 cross-validation | Net operating revenue matched at $2,052.8 million in the annual report and Macrotrends versus $2,053.0 million in StockAnalysis, with less than 0.01% deviation. Macrotrends net income of $296.0 million differs by 3.24% from the $305.9 million GAAP net income and is treated as a presentation or attributable-earnings difference. | StoneX 2025 Annual Report, Macrotrends, StockAnalysis, and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 results | Quarterly net operating revenue was $829.1 million, up 70%; net income was $174.3 million, up 143%; diluted EPS was $2.07; quarterly ROE was 26.5%. | StoneX fiscal Q2 2026 earnings release and Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| R.J. O’Brien contribution | Q2 FY2026 included $213.5 million of RJO operating revenue and $20.9 million of RJO net income. Management said integration was on track for substantial completion during fiscal 2026. | StoneX Form 10-Q and Q2 FY2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and equity at March 31, 2026 | $2.123 billion cash and equivalents, $1.160 billion senior secured borrowings, $564.8 million payables to lenders under loans, and $2.699 billion stockholders’ equity. Client and segregated cash are not the same as unrestricted corporate cash. | StoneX Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation verification | At $117.72 and $5.65 TTM EPS, PE was 20.84x. At $34.16 book value per share, PB was 3.45x. Reported FCF per share of $81.82 produced 1.44x P/FCF, but the cash-flow metric is distorted by trading balance changes. | StockAnalysis statistics and cash-flow tables plus financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | Price $117.72, 50-day SMA about $119.22, 200-day SMA about $84.34, RSI about 44.24, average 20-day volume about 1.20 million shares, and ATR near 3% of price. | ChartMill and StockAnalysis technical statistics | July 12, 2026 |
This SNEX AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell StoneX Group stock. Forecasts are conditional scenarios based on available public data and can be wrong. Verify live data, filings, personal risk tolerance, and constraints before making investment decisions.
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