The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company research snapshot
SMG AI stock analysis reads The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company as the dominant branded North American consumer lawn and garden company, now simpler and more focused after completing the divestiture of its Hawthorne hydroponics business in April 2026. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, SMG traded near $67.12 with a market capitalization of about $3.91 billion. The company reported Q3 FY2026 net sales of $1.17 billion, up 1%, and raised its full year non-GAAP adjusted EPS guidance to $4.30 to $4.45. Net leverage improved to 3.78x from 4.15x a year ago, gross margin expanded 130 basis points year to date, and the dividend was maintained at $2.64 per share, a 3.91% yield. Risks remain: total debt near $2.1 billion against only $27.7 million of cash, negative book equity, weather-dependent and seasonal demand, commodity cost swings from the Iran conflict, and an unproven new CEO team. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$67.12
Market cap
$3.91 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Leading lawn and garden brands, now focused on the core US Consumer business after the Hawthorne divestiture, with lower leverage and a raised FY2026 EPS outlook, offset by seasonal consumer demand and still-high debt
Trend status
Holding above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a July pullback from the 52-week high of $75.34, trading near $67 with neutral momentum (RSI near 49)
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Scotts Miracle-Gro is the leading marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products in North America, selling lawn fertilizer, grass seed, garden soil, plant food, weed control, and pest control under iconic brands including Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Ortho, and Tomcat. US Consumer net sales reached $2.74 billion in the first nine months of FY2026, up 2%, and branded product sales rose 4.5% year to date. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from brand recognition built over more than 150 years, dominant shelf placement at Home Depot, Lowe, Walmart, club, and hardware retailers, deep distribution relationships, and consumer habit. E-commerce now represents 13% of POS dollars, up 300 basis points, extending the reach of the branded portfolio. | Medium-high |
| Management | Nate Baxter was appointed president and CEO on June 29, 2026, succeeding Jim Hagedorn, who led the company for about 40 years. Baxter joined in 2023 and served as president and COO before the transition. The Hagedorn Partnership, the largest shareholder, publicly supports the new CEO. Pete Shumlin was elected Chairman. Management quality is unproven under the new team, though the transition has been described as smooth. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Financial trends are improving. First nine months net sales rose 2% to $2.99 billion, gross margin expanded 130 basis points to 35.8% on a non-GAAP basis, adjusted EBITDA rose 5% to $686.6 million, and the company raised its FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.30-$4.45. Net leverage improved to 3.78x from 4.15x. Book equity remains negative at about -$209 million. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $67.12, SMG trades at about 14.4x forward earnings, 10.1x trailing free cash flow, 1.1x sales, and a 3.91% dividend yield. The trailing PE near 54x is inflated by one-time impairment, restructuring, and severance charges. The forward multiple is reasonable for the improving earnings path, with a consensus price target of $77.17. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | SMG rallied from about $52 in late 2025 to a 52-week high of $75.34 in July 2026, then pulled back to the mid-$60s. Price holds above the 50-day moving average near $64.67 and the 200-day moving average near $61.84. RSI is near 49, neutral, and beta is a high 1.83. | Medium |
| Risk level | Elevated, though improving. Total debt is about $2.1 billion versus $27.7 million of cash, book equity is negative, demand is weather-dependent and seasonal, commodity and freight costs from the Iran conflict create margin risk, and a brand new CEO team is unproven. Short interest is 8.96% of shares outstanding. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium-low |
SMG AI stock forecast
The SMG AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $67.12 quote, the raised FY2026 non-GAAP adjusted EPS guidance of $4.30 to $4.45, and consensus forward EPS of about $4.39 for FY2026 and $4.76 for FY2027. The three-year framework produced a bearish area near $38-$48, a base area near $70-$80, and a bullish area near $95-$110 before dividends.
$95 to $110
More likely if the US lawn and garden category keeps growing, the SMG 2.0 strategy sustains low-single-digit branded sales growth and margin expansion, e-commerce keeps compounding, interest rates decline, commodity costs moderate, the new CEO executes the deleveraging path toward the below-3.5x target, and the stock re-rates toward 18-20x forward earnings.
$70 to $80
Expected if revenue grows at low single digits, gross margin stays above 32%, the company gradually reduces debt through free cash flow toward a mid-3x leverage ratio, the dividend is maintained, and the stock trades at 14-16x forward earnings, consistent with the consensus price target of $77.17.
$38 to $48
More likely if consumer discretionary spending weakens, a poor weather season reduces lawn and garden purchases, commodity and freight costs from the Iran conflict compress margins, leverage stalls above 4x, negative book equity becomes harder to repair, and the company is forced to cut the dividend or raise equity.
SMG AI technical analysis
The SMG AI technical analysis uses price levels from daily trading data available as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. SMG has a high beta of 1.83 and amplifies broader market moves. The stock recovered from a 52-week low of $52.00, set a 52-week high of $75.34 on July 17, 2026, and has since pulled back to the mid-$60s while holding above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance R3 | $75.34 | 52-week high reached July 17, 2026. A close above this level would signal a new uptrend and would mark the first time the stock trades at 52-week highs since 2021. |
| Resistance R2 | $73.00-$73.50 | The July 28, 2026 intraday high of $73.41 and nearby price area. Sellers emerged in this zone during the late July rally. |
| Resistance R1 | $70.00-$71.40 | The July 30, 2026 intraday high of $71.39 and the round-number $70 area. Short-term supply has formed here in early August. |
| Support S1 | $65.50-$66.00 | The July 31, 2026 low of $65.53 and the nearby 50-day moving average near $64.67. The first demand zone below the current price. |
| Support S2 | $61.80-$62.00 | The 200-day moving average near $61.84 and the June 2026 price area. Holding this level would keep the medium-term trend constructive. |
| Support S3 | $59.50-$60.00 | The June 11, 2026 low of $59.69 and nearby support. A break below this zone would target the June 2026 base near $56-$58. |
| Support S4 | $52.00 | The 52-week low set in late 2025. This is the invalidation level for a bullish technical view. |
| 50-day Moving Average | ~$64.67 | Price is currently above the 50-day MA, a modestly bullish near-term signal if it holds. |
| 200-day Moving Average | ~$61.84 | Price is holding above the 200-day MA after the July pullback. Sustained trading above this level is a positive medium-term signal. |
SMG AI trading strategy
The SMG AI trading strategy framework focuses on the seasonal lawn and garden cycle, the deleveraging story after the Hawthorne divestiture, and technical support and resistance levels. Because SMG has high beta (1.83) and earnings are seasonal, position sizing should account for above-average volatility. This is not personalized investment advice.
Monitor SMG during the spring lawn and garden season (February through June). Look for bullish continuation signals when price holds above the 50-day moving average near $64.67 during this period. Consider partial profit-taking ahead of the fiscal year-end (September) when seasonal demand typically wanes.
Invalidate if price closes below the 200-day moving average near $61.84 on above-average volume. Use a trailing stop of 8-10% below the entry price to account for the stocks elevated beta.
Monitor the new CEOs capital allocation plan presented at the August 4, 2026 Investor Day, quarterly free cash flow, and the path toward the below-3.5x net leverage target. A consistent pattern of debt paydown combined with a stable dividend and a measured share repurchase program could support a re-rating.
Invalidate if the company cuts the dividend, suspends the buyback, restructures debt, or raises dilutive equity. Any signal of balance sheet stress should trigger an exit.
SMG has historically traded in wide ranges. Consider buying near identified support zones ($61.80-$62.00 or $65.50-$66.00) with defined risk. Set upside targets at resistance levels ($70-$71.40, $73.00-$73.50, and $75.34). Use the 3.91% dividend yield as a partial return cushion during the holding period.
Risk 5-7% of the entry price. If SMG breaks below the 52-week low of $52.00, the technical structure would be broken and re-assessment would be needed.
Investment research summary
Scotts Miracle-Gro sells the most trusted names in consumer lawn and garden care. Customers pay for healthy grass, productive gardens, and pest-free yards. The brands (Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Ortho, Tomcat) have been trusted for generations, creating a deep consumer preference that competitors find hard to displace at retail. The April 2026 divestiture of Hawthorne sharpened the story into a pure branded lawn and garden franchise.
The moat comes from brand equity built over more than 150 years, retail shelf space dominance at every major US home improvement and garden retailer, and consumer habit. E-commerce, now 13% of POS dollars and growing 27% year to date, is widening the moat by making branded products easier to buy online. However, the moat does not extend to unlimited pricing power, and the company is deliberately exiting low-margin commodity volume to protect margins.
The thesis fails if: (1) a consumer downturn cuts discretionary lawn and garden spending for multiple seasons, (2) commodity and freight costs from the Iran conflict keep compressing margins, (3) negative book equity and roughly $2.1 billion of debt force a dividend cut or dilutive raise before leverage reaches the mid-3x target, (4) the new CEO misallocates capital or loses key talent, or (5) private label competitors gain meaningful shelf space as the company exits commodity volume.
The June 2026 CEO succession from Jim Hagedorn to Nate Baxter marks a significant leadership transition. Baxter joined in 2023, served as president and COO, and is executing an SMG 2.0 strategy focused on portfolio optimization, channel expansion, category growth, and operational efficiencies. The Hagedorn Partnership, the largest shareholder, has publicly backed him. CFO Mark Scheiwer remains in place. Management quality is promising but unproven in this configuration.
Lawn and garden is a mature, low-growth category driven by housing formation, weather, and consumer discretionary spending, not a civilizational paradigm shift. Company research finds 74% of consumers treat lawn and garden care as a necessity and 82% say the same for pest control. The category is growing modestly, e-commerce is compounding, and organic and natural product lines are gaining. The divestiture of Hawthorne removes the failed cannabis bet and refocuses the company on the core franchise.
At $67.12, SMG offers a 3.91% dividend yield, trades at about 14.4x forward earnings and 10.1x trailing free cash flow, and carries a consensus analyst price target of $77.17. The three-scenario valuation produces a base case near $70-$80, a bear case near $38-$48, and a bull case near $95-$110 over three years. The risk skew is less severe than in prior years because the divestiture and deleveraging have lowered balance sheet risk, but negative equity and high debt still limit the margin of safety for a leveraged consumer cyclical.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $67.12 | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Market cap | $3.91 billion | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 58.18 million | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $52.00 to $75.34 | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| PE ratio (TTM) | ~54x (inflated by one-time charges) | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward PE | ~14.4x | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $3.48 billion | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $73.9 million (includes one-time charges) | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $5.91 billion | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt | $2.11 billion | Q3 FY2026 press release (balance sheet June 27, 2026) | July 29, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $27.7 million | Q3 FY2026 press release (balance sheet June 27, 2026) | July 29, 2026 |
| Book equity | -$208.7 million (deficit) | Q3 FY2026 press release (balance sheet June 27, 2026) | July 29, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $379.7 million | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward dividend and yield | $2.64 (3.91%) | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Beta (5Y monthly) | 1.83 | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst 1-year target | $77.17 (Buy consensus, 8 analysts) | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 net sales | $1,172.1 million (+1% YoY) | Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 non-GAAP adjusted EPS | $2.82 (+8% YoY) | Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2026 non-GAAP adjusted EPS guidance | $4.30 to $4.45 (raised from $4.15-$4.35) | Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Net leverage ratio (Q3 FY2026) | 3.78x (improved from 4.15x) | Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| 50-day / 200-day moving averages | $64.67 / $61.84 | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
This SMG AI stock analysis page is for informational and educational use only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All forecast scenarios are based on publicly available data and assumptions that may prove incorrect. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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