Shopify Inc. research snapshot
SHOP AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Shopify Inc. as a high-quality commerce infrastructure company with roughly 32% revenue growth, strong free cash flow, and deep merchant adoption, but the stock fell 27% year to date and now trades below its 200-day moving average. The forecast is scenario-based, not a certain price prediction. At the July 31, 2026 close SHOP traded at $117.15, down 4.29% on the day, with a market capitalization near $152.41 billion, re-verified as $117.15 times 1.298 billion shares with a 0.23% deviation. The stock is priced at about 115x trailing earnings and 61.5x forward earnings, and the market is weighing whether Meta's AI-powered "one-prompt entrepreneur" tool and other AI shopping agents reduce the value of merchant storefronts. Q2 2026 earnings are scheduled for August 5, 2026, after this cutoff, so the page uses Q1 2026 results and TTM data through March 31, 2026 as the latest reported fundamentals. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$117.15
Market cap
$152.41 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
High-growth commerce platform facing valuation and AI disruption questions
Trend status
Mixed technical trend, below the 200-day moving average after a mid-July rebound faded
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Shopify provides commerce software, payments, checkout, point of sale, fulfillment partners, lending, marketing tools, and AI-enabled merchant workflows for businesses that want direct customer relationships, with TTM revenue near $12.37 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from merchant switching costs, app ecosystem depth, payment and checkout scale, brand trust among entrepreneurs, developer tools, and data from millions of commerce interactions. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder CEO Tobias Lutke remains the key product and capital-allocation figure, with Harley Finkelstein and Jeff Hoffmeister providing operating and financial discipline. The Founder Share and Class B structure creates control alignment but also governance concentration risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $11.556 billion, up 30%, with $2.007 billion of free cash flow. Q1 2026 revenue rose 34% to $3.170 billion, GMV passed $100 billion, and TTM free cash flow reached $2.12 billion, though Q1 GAAP net income was a $581 million loss driven by equity investment marks. | High |
| Valuation | financial_rigor.py computed about 114.85x TTM EPS, 12.31x TTM sales, 12.19x book value, and 71.87x free cash flow per share, with a 61.53x forward PE on StockAnalysis.com. That leaves limited room for growth disappointment. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SHOP closed at $117.15 on July 31, 2026, above the 50-day moving average near $116.07 but below the 200-day moving average near $133.16, with 14-day RSI near 46.7 and 14-day ADX near 18, signaling a weak, range-bound trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are valuation compression, slower merchant growth, AI commerce disruption led by Meta tools, payments margin pressure, platform competition, governance concentration, and macro pressure on discretionary retail. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed descriptive research and cross-checked math. Lower for future returns because SHOP has high multiple sensitivity, GAAP income can swing with equity-investment marks, and the Q2 2026 report is a near-term unknown. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business quality is clearer than the margin of safety. Certainty improves if revenue stays near the high-20s to low-30s growth range, free cash flow margin stays in the mid-teens or better, and AI shopping behavior keeps driving merchants toward storefronts rather than away from them. | Medium-low |
SHOP AI stock forecast
The SHOP AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $117.15 and TTM EPS near $1.02. financial_rigor.py produced a bullish three-year value near $175.70, a base case near $109.60, and a bearish case near $45.00 before any dividends, using EPS growth of 35%, 25%, and 8% and exit multiples of 70x, 55x, and 35x. These are scenario outputs, not promised targets.
$168 to $182
More likely if revenue compounds near the high-20s to low-30s, AI tools increase merchant productivity rather than replace storefronts, Shop Pay and payments scale improve monetization, free cash flow margin stays in the mid-teens or better, and the Q2 2026 report and AI competition fears settle.
$102 to $118
More likely if EPS compounds near the low-to-mid twenties, the market holds the stock near a 55x to 60x forward multiple, and SHOP delivers growth without a major re-rating in either direction.
$38 to $50
More likely if merchant growth slows, AI shopping shifts demand away from storefronts, Meta or other platforms copy key tools, payments margins compress, free cash flow disappoints, or investors re-rate SHOP toward a lower-growth software multiple.
SHOP AI technical analysis
SHOP AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $117.15 on July 31, 2026, down 4.29%, sitting just above the 50-day moving average near $116.07 but below the 200-day moving average near $133.16. The 100-day average near $117.02 and the 50-day average form a support cluster around the current price, while 14-day RSI near 46.7 and 14-day ADX near 18 show momentum without a strong directional trend. The rebound from the $94.47 year-to-date low to about $121 in early July has largely faded.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $117.15 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close, after a 4.29% decline from the previous close near $122.40. |
| Near support | $115.27 to $116.07 | The July 31 session low near $115.27 and the 50-day moving average near $116.07 form a cluster that held on the pullback. |
| Next support | $111 to $113 | The lower part of the recent consolidation range, near where the stock traded in mid-July before the rebound attempt. |
| Near resistance | $122.25 to $125.18 | The July 31 session high near $122.25, the previous close near $122.40, and the 5-day moving average near $125.18 mark the first upside test. |
| Major resistance | $133.16 | The 200-day moving average. A sustained close above it would signal a return to the longer-term uptrend, but the stock has traded below it for months. |
| 50-day moving average | $116.07 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 50-day trend line near $116.07 on July 31, 2026. |
| 100-day moving average | $117.02 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $117.02, essentially at the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $133.16 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both show the long-term trend line near $133.16, roughly 12% above the current price. |
| Momentum | RSI near 46.7, ADX near 18 | 14-day RSI near 46.7 is neutral and 14-day ADX near 18 indicates a weak, range-bound trend rather than a decisive move. |
| Volume | About 12.6 million on July 31 | July 31 volume of 12.6 million was well above the 20-day average near 8.1 million, so the drop happened on heavier participation. |
| Volatility | ATR about $6.37, or about 5.4% | Barchart 14-day ATR near $6.37 with 14-day historical volatility near 64% implies wide normal swings, so position sizing should reflect multi-dollar daily moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $115.27 | A decisive close below the $115.27 to $116.07 support cluster would weaken the short-term setup and open the way toward the $111 area. A close below $111 would signal a deeper pullback toward the year-to-date low zone. |
SHOP AI trading strategy
The SHOP AI trading strategy is a research and risk-control framework, not personalized advice. It combines Shopify business quality, valuation discipline, moving-average confirmation, and clear invalidation levels, and it treats the August 5 Q2 2026 report as the next major event risk. Pineify users can translate these conditions into a Pine Script watchlist or strategy with the trading strategy builder.
Watch for SHOP to reclaim the $122.25 to $125.18 zone and then the 200-day moving average near $133.16 with above-average volume, which would mark a return to the longer-term uptrend.
A failed reclaim, or a close back below the $115.27 to $116.07 support cluster, should invalidate the setup until price stabilizes and the Q2 growth outlook is refreshed after the August 5 report.
If SHOP pulls back into the $111 to $116 zone without a thesis break, compare the drawdown with merchant GMV, revenue growth, free cash flow margin, payments growth, and AI commerce commentary before acting.
Avoid averaging down without a predefined maximum loss, position size, and review of whether valuation expectations still match fundamentals, especially given the uncertainty around AI shopping agents.
Track GMV, Subscription Solutions revenue, Merchant Solutions revenue, gross profit, free cash flow margin, transaction and loan losses, Shop Pay adoption, AI product usage, attach rate, and share repurchase activity.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth slows while the stock still trades at a premium sales or earnings multiple, or if the Q2 report shows an AI-related slowdown in merchant additions.
Investment research summary
Shopify helps merchants start, run, market, and scale commerce across online stores, physical retail, social channels, marketplaces, and direct checkout. Customers pay because Shopify lowers the operational burden of selling without surrendering the customer relationship to a marketplace.
The moat is built from switching costs, a large app and developer ecosystem, checkout and payments scale, merchant data, brand credibility with entrepreneurs, and increasing utility from AI-assisted storefront, catalog, support, and workflow tools.
The thesis fails if AI shopping agents reduce the value of merchant storefronts, if large platforms such as Meta copy key tools, if payments economics weaken, if transaction losses rise, or if investors stop paying a premium for high-growth commerce software.
Tobias Lutke remains founder CEO and product anchor. Harley Finkelstein and Jeff Hoffmeister provide operating and financial discipline, but the voting structure creates governance concentration and key-person risk.
Shopify sits inside long-term shifts toward direct-to-consumer commerce, omnichannel retail, embedded payments, cross-border selling, and AI-assisted merchant operations. The trend is favorable, but competition from marketplaces, payment networks, and AI interfaces such as Meta's one-prompt entrepreneurship tools is intense.
At about 115x TTM EPS, 61.5x forward earnings, and 12.3x TTM sales, SHOP is not priced as a low-expectation value stock. Margin of safety depends on sustained high growth, durable free cash flow, and evidence that AI raises merchant productivity rather than commoditizing storefront software.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SHOP price | $117.15 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 4.29% | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $152.41 billion reported, with financial_rigor.py calculating $152.06 billion from $117.15 x 1.298 billion shares (0.23% deviation) | StockAnalysis.com quote and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.30 billion shares outstanding, 1.22 billion float, 6.12% owned by insiders | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $11.556 billion, up 30.14% from $8.88 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials and Shopify FY2025 release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $1.231 billion GAAP net income | StockAnalysis.com financials and Shopify FY2025 release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $2.007 billion with a 17.37% free cash flow margin | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement and Shopify FY2025 release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and GMV | $3.170 billion revenue up 34.32% and $100.74 billion GMV | StockAnalysis.com quarterly metrics and Shopify Q1 2026 release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment revenue | Subscription Solutions $750 million, Merchant Solutions $2.42 billion | StockAnalysis.com quarterly revenue by segment | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 free cash flow | $476 million, a 15.02% free cash flow margin | StockAnalysis.com quarterly cash flow | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP net income | -$581 million net income and -$0.45 EPS, driven by equity investment marks | StockAnalysis.com quarterly income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue $12.37 billion up 31.8%, net income $1.33 billion, EPS $1.02, gross margin 47.97%, operating margin 17.13% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents $5.74 billion, total debt $179 million, net cash $6.27 billion, book value $12.50 billion as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow $2.15 billion, capital expenditures $27 million, free cash flow $2.12 billion, FCF margin 17.14% | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | financial_rigor.py computed 114.85x TTM PE, 12.31x TTM sales, 12.19x book value, and 71.87x free cash flow per share | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | Forward PE 61.53, forward PS 9.84, PEG 2.06, EV/EBITDA 87.14, EV/FCF 68.93 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average 12-month target of $148.39 across 51 analysts, a 26.67% upside from the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst target updates, July 2026 | Rothschild and Co Redburn downgraded to Neutral from Buy with a $130 target down from $160 on Meta AI competition, Citi lowered its target to $150 from $156, Morgan Stanley assumed Overweight at $192, Wedbush Outperform at $155, RBC at $170 | TipRanks and TheFly via StockAnalysis.com news | July 25, 2026 |
| Short interest | 26.56 million shares short, 2.04% of shares outstanding, 3.18 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com short selling statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day SMA near $116.07, 100-day SMA near $117.02, 200-day SMA near $133.16, 14-day RSI near 46.7, 14-day ATR near $6.37 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | Scheduled for August 5, 2026, before market open | Shopify investor relations and StockAnalysis.com earnings calendar | August 2, 2026 |
This Shopify Inc. page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold SHOP. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, valuation assumptions, and technical references as of the stated cutoff date, and they can be wrong. Q1 2026 results were the latest reported quarter at the August 2, 2026 cutoff, and the Q2 2026 report scheduled for August 5, 2026 could change the picture materially.
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