Simmons First National Corporation research snapshot
SFNC AI stock analysis currently reads Simmons First National Corporation as a conservatively run Mid-South regional bank that reset its balance sheet in late 2025 and is now generating improving, more normalized profitability. The stock last traded near $23.94 on August 3, 2026, with a market capitalization of about $3.46 billion on 144.44 million shares, and a price within roughly 0.1% of the 52-week high of $23.96. The company reported Q2 2026 total revenue of $248.6 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.50, with a net interest margin of 3.84%, adjusted return on tangible common equity of 14.37%, and clean credit trends apart from one fully reserved real estate construction relationship. The headline GAAP numbers for 2025 were negative because of a one-time loss on the sale of about $2.4 billion of low-yielding securities during a strategic balance sheet repositioning in the third quarter of 2025, not because of operating deterioration. The bullish case needs continued loan growth, stable margin, low credit costs, and expense discipline. The caution is that SFNC operates in a slower-growth Arkansas and Mid-South footprint, trades at 1.66x tangible book value because of about $1.32 billion of acquisition goodwill, and depends on rates and the local economy for earnings momentum.
Current price
$23.94
Market cap
$3.46 billion calculated from $23.94 x 144.44 million shares; tool deviation versus reported $3.46 billion was 0.06%
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Mid-South regional bank holding company with a 117-year dividend record, improving profitability after the 2025 balance sheet repositioning, trading slightly below book value with a 3.59% dividend yield
Trend status
Price trades near the 52-week high of $23.96 after a strong 2026 recovery, above the rising 50-day ($22.43) and 200-day ($20.32) moving averages, with RSI near 66 and a TradingView strong buy daily summary
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Simmons First National earns net interest income and fee income from consumer and commercial lending, deposits, and wealth management across Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas, with 220 branches and a conservative credit culture. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from long-standing local relationships, a 117-year dividend record, a stable low-cost deposit base in the Mid-South, and banking licenses. It is narrow because the geography limits scale, depositor switching costs are modest, and larger regional and national lenders compete in the same markets. | Medium |
| Management | President and CEO Jay Brogdon, who succeeded the retiring George Makris Jr. in late 2025, led the Q3 2025 balance sheet repositioning, refinanced subordinated debt, started a $175 million buyback program, and kept the dividend intact through a loss-making year. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue of $248.6 million, net income of $66.7 million, diluted EPS of $0.46, and adjusted EPS of $0.50 reflect steady core improvement, with NIM at 3.84% and adjusted ROTCE at 14.37%. FY 2025 GAAP net loss of $397.6 million was driven by the one-time securities repositioning charge, while FY 2025 adjusted EPS was $1.73 and FY 2026 consensus adjusted EPS is $2.05. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $23.94, SFNC trades at about 11.7x forward adjusted EPS of $2.05, 0.99x book value, 1.66x tangible book value, 8.2x trailing free cash flow, and a 3.59% dividend yield. The book multiple below 1.0x is flattered by goodwill; the tangible book multiple tells a more complete story. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SFNC has recovered from the 2025 lows near $17.00 to trade near the 52-week high of $23.96, well above the rising 50-day ($22.43) and 200-day ($20.32) moving averages, with RSI near 66 and a TradingView strong buy daily summary. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include net interest margin compression if rates fall, a single large nonperforming real estate construction relationship, concentration in the Mid-South economy, goodwill that limits tangible book convergence, and competition for deposits from larger lenders. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported financials, market, and balance sheet data. Forecast confidence is medium because regional bank earnings depend on macro variables that shift faster than the bank can report. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | SFNC screens as a conservatively managed, dividend-paying regional bank with improving normalized profitability and a modest valuation. Certainty depends on whether loan growth and margin hold, whether the single construction credit resolves without loss, and whether tangible book value can grow despite the goodwill load. | Medium |
SFNC AI stock forecast
The SFNC AI stock forecast uses the FY 2026 consensus adjusted EPS of about $2.05 as the earnings base, which excludes the one-time 2025 securities repositioning loss. Using 3-year growth inputs of 11%, 5%, and -4% and terminal multiples of 13x, 11x, and 9x, the audited model produced a bullish value near $36, a base value near $26, and a bearish value near $16. These are scenario ranges, not price promises. The base case near $26 sits just above the consensus analyst target of $25 and modestly above the current $23.94 price.
$30 to $36
More likely if SFNC sustains high-single-digit loan growth, net interest margin stays stable or expands, credit costs remain low, the single construction relationship resolves without material loss, and the market re-rates the bank toward 13x adjusted earnings as tangible book value grows.
$24 to $28
More likely if loan growth tracks the low- to mid-single-digit range, net interest margin holds near 3.8%, credit remains clean, and the market maintains an 11x multiple on adjusted EPS near current levels, in line with the $25 consensus target.
$14 to $18
More likely if the Mid-South economy weakens, net interest margin compresses sharply, credit costs rise, the large construction relationship generates losses, or the market re-rates the bank toward 9x adjusted earnings.
SFNC AI technical analysis
SFNC AI technical analysis uses market data available around the August 4, 2026 cutoff. SFNC last traded near $23.94 on August 3, 2026, within 0.1% of its 52-week high of $23.96. The stock has recovered steadily from the 2025 lows near $17.00 and now sits above the rising 50-day moving average of $22.43 and the 200-day moving average of $20.32. StockAnalysis.com shows RSI near 66, close to but not yet in overbought territory, and TradingView labels the daily summary a strong buy, with oscillators at buy and moving averages at strong buy.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $23.94 | August 3, 2026 intraday quote from StockAnalysis.com (CBOE real-time data), with a prior close of $23.59. |
| Near resistance | $23.94 to $23.96 | The 52-week high of $23.96 is the immediate overhead supply. A clean break above this zone would mark a new recovery high and open the path toward the analyst target zone. |
| Upside target zone | $25.00 to $27.00 | The consensus analyst price target of $25 and the high target of $27 mark the next resistance areas if the 52-week high gives way. |
| Immediate support | $23.00 to $23.50 | The recent consolidation zone just below the current price where the stock has found buying interest during the late-July rally. |
| 50-day moving average | $22.43 | The 50-day MA is rising and sits below the current price, providing the first trend-support reference on a pullback. |
| Secondary support | $21.00 to $22.00 | The zone between the round $21 and $22 levels that acted as support during the 2026 advance before the stock broke toward the highs. |
| 200-day moving average | $20.32 | The 200-day MA has flattened and turned up after the recovery from the 2025 lows. Price above the 200-day confirms the intermediate-term uptrend. |
| Deeper support | $17.00 to $18.00 | The 52-week low area near $17.00 and the recovery base near $18.00 represent the final support zone before a structural trend reassessment. |
| Momentum | RSI near 66, constructive but approaching overbought | RSI near 66 is a strong but not extreme reading. The level leaves room for more upside while flagging that a pullback becomes more likely if RSI pushes above 70. |
| Volume | About 719,000 shares on August 3 versus a 1.54 million 20-day average | Volume on the latest session was below the 20-day average, typical of a consolidation near resistance. A volume surge on a breakout above $23.96 would add conviction to the bullish setup. |
| Invalidation | Close below $22.00 | A decisive break below $22.00 and toward the 200-day MA would weaken the intermediate-term uptrend and suggest the recovery from the 2025 lows is stalling. |
SFNC AI trading strategy
The SFNC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with loan growth, net interest margin, credit quality, operating expenses, tangible book value trajectory, dividend coverage, and buyback execution.
Watch for SFNC to break and hold above the $23.96 52-week high on above-average volume, confirming the recovery trend, while the bank demonstrates stable NIM, clean credit, and consistent adjusted EPS growth.
A close below $23.00 or a reversal from the $23.96 resistance zone without a fundamental catalyst should reduce trend-following confidence.
If SFNC pulls back toward the $22.43 50-day MA or the $21.00 to $22.00 zone without deterioration in loan quality, NIM, or dividend coverage, compare the entry with the audited base and bearish scenarios before treating the pullback as attractive.
Do not treat every regional bank pullback as a buying opportunity if net interest margins are compressing, the large construction relationship deteriorates further, or the Mid-South economy weakens.
For investors focused on dividend income and book value convergence, monitor tangible book value per share, the price-to-tangible-book ratio, the payout ratio, buyback pace under the $175 million program, and the bank's ability to grow tangible book despite the goodwill load.
Position sizing should reflect that the stock trades at 1.66x tangible book value, not the cheaper 0.99x total book multiple, because about $1.32 billion of goodwill sits on the balance sheet.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Simmons First National for local banking relationships, deposit safety, real estate and commercial loans, and wealth management across a six-state Mid-South footprint. The business model rewards disciplined credit underwriting, low-cost deposit gathering, and expense control more than rapid growth.
SFNC benefits from long-standing community relationships, a 117-year dividend record, a stable low-cost deposit base, and conservative underwriting. The moat is narrow because the geographic footprint limits market size, deposit switching costs are modest, and larger regional and national competitors operate in the same markets.
The thesis fails if net interest margin compresses faster than expenses can be cut, the single large nonperforming construction relationship produces a real loss, the Mid-South economy underperforms, deposit costs rise, or the goodwill-heavy balance sheet prevents tangible book value from growing as the market expects.
President and CEO Jay Brogdon and the leadership team executed the 2025 balance sheet repositioning, refinanced subordinated debt, launched a $175 million buyback, and maintained the dividend. The key test is whether they can grow loans, tangible book value, and adjusted EPS organically without a repeat of the reserve or securities charges that shaped 2025.
Regional banking faces persistent headwinds from net interest margin pressure, deposit competition, technology investment demands, and regulatory costs. Banks with low-cost deposits, clean credit, and expense discipline are better positioned, but the industry is mature and not in a high-growth structural uptrend.
At $23.94, SFNC trades at about 11.7x forward adjusted EPS of $2.05, 0.99x book value, and 1.66x tangible book value, with a 3.59% dividend yield. The base-case valuation of about $26 and the bullish case of about $36 offer upside if operations keep improving and the market maintains its multiple. The bearish case of about $16 reflects the risk if rates, credit, or the local economy deteriorate.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SFNC quote reference | About $23.94 intraday on August 3, 2026, prior close $23.59 | StockAnalysis.com SFNC overview (CBOE real-time data) | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $3.46 billion calculated from $23.94 x 144.44 million shares; tool deviation versus reported $3.46 billion was 0.06% | Pineify financial_rigor.py, StockAnalysis.com, and S&P Global | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 144.44 million shares outstanding, up from about 127 million a year earlier after the July 2025 equity offering | StockAnalysis.com share statistics (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 quarterly results | Total revenue $248.6 million, net income $66.7 million, diluted EPS $0.46, adjusted diluted EPS $0.50, adjusted net income $72.2 million | Simmons First National Q2 2026 press release (PRNewswire, July 16, 2026) | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 profitability and margin | ROAA 1.09%, ROE 7.69%, adjusted ROTCE 14.37%, net interest margin 3.84% FTE, adjusted efficiency ratio 54.26% | Simmons First National Q2 2026 press release (PRNewswire) | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet as of June 30, 2026 | Total loans $18.06 billion, total deposits $19.73 billion, total assets $24.78 billion, shareholders equity $3.48 billion | Simmons First National Q2 2026 press release (PRNewswire) | August 4, 2026 |
| Book value and tangible book value | Book value per share $24.11, tangible book value per share $14.42 as of June 30, 2026 | Simmons First National Q2 2026 press release (PRNewswire) | August 4, 2026 |
| Capital ratios | CET1 ratio 11.60%, total risk-based capital ratio 14.35%, tangible common equity to tangible assets 8.91% | Simmons First National Q2 2026 press release (PRNewswire) | August 4, 2026 |
| Credit quality | Net charge-off ratio 0.20%, allowance to loans 1.32%, nonperforming loans $166.0 million, nonperforming assets 72 bps of assets, driven by a single fully migrated real estate construction relationship | Simmons First National Q2 2026 press release (PRNewswire) | August 4, 2026 |
| Q3 2025 balance sheet repositioning | Net loss of $562.8 million in Q3 2025 (diluted EPS -$4.00) driven by a one-time loss on the sale of about $2.4 billion of low-yielding securities at an after-tax loss of about $626 million; adjusted net income was $64.9 million and adjusted EPS $0.46 | Simmons First National Q3 2025 press release (PRNewswire, October 16, 2025) | August 4, 2026 |
| 2025 full-year results and 2026 consensus | FY 2025 GAAP net loss of $397.6 million and adjusted EPS of $1.73; FY 2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $2.05 and FY 2026 consensus revenue of about $1.00 billion | StockAnalysis.com income statement and forecast pages (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | Quarterly dividend $0.215 per share, annualized $0.86, yield about 3.59%, with 117 consecutive years of dividends and 14 consecutive years of growth | StockAnalysis.com dividend page and Simmons press releases | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Buy from 7 analysts (2 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 4 Hold) with an average price target of $25, low of $24, and high of $27 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page (S&P Global and TipRanks) | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | In July 2026, KBW raised its target to $25 (Hold), Raymond James raised its target to $25 (Outperform), and D.A. Davidson, Piper Sandler, and Morgan Stanley held targets at $24 | TheFly and TipRanks via StockAnalysis.com news | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash flow trailing twelve months | Operating cash flow about $457.0 million and free cash flow about $422.8 million (about $2.93 per share) for the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis.com income statement and statistics pages (Fiscal.ai) | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet detail as of June 30, 2026 | Cash and equivalents about $589.5 million, securities and investments about $3.08 billion, goodwill about $1.32 billion, other intangibles about $78.2 million, total debt about $1.30 billion | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet page (Fiscal.ai) | August 4, 2026 |
| Share repurchase | Repurchased about 0.7 million shares at an average price of $21.52 in Q2 2026, with about $161 million remaining under the $175 million program announced February 17, 2026 | Simmons First National Q2 2026 press release (PRNewswire) | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical context | 50-day moving average $22.43, 200-day moving average $20.32, RSI 66.37, beta 0.92, 52-week range $17.00 to $23.96, TradingView daily summary strong buy | StockAnalysis.com statistics page and TradingView technicals | August 4, 2026 |
| Company profile | Founded 1903, headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas; about 2,909 employees; 220 branches in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas | Simmons First National press release and StockAnalysis.com profile | August 4, 2026 |
This SFNC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 4, 2026, and can be wrong if Simmons First National execution, loan growth, net interest margin, credit quality, operating expenses, local economic conditions, interest rates, or market valuation changes.
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