Simmons First National Corporation research snapshot
SFNC AI stock analysis currently reads Simmons First National Corporation as a conservatively run Arkansas-based regional bank with a long operating history, stable deposit base, clean credit culture, and a tangible book value multiple below 1.0x. The stock closed near $22.86 on July 10, 2026, with an independently verified market capitalization of about $3.32 billion on 145.06 million shares. The bank absorbed a large non-cash goodwill impairment in Q3 2025 tied to prior acquisition accounting, which pushed GAAP net income negative for the trailing twelve months but did not affect cash flows, regulatory capital, or the quarterly dividend. Normalized operating earnings suggest a profitable, well-capitalized institution. The bullish case needs steady loan growth, stable net interest margin, credit quality maintenance, and further expense discipline. The caution is that SFNC operates in a slow-growth Arkansas and Oklahoma footprint, faces spread compression in a normalized rate environment, and carries goodwill from past acquisitions that limits upside on tangible book convergence.
Current price
$22.86
Market cap
$3.32 billion calculated from $22.86 x 145.06 million shares; tool deviation versus reported $3.32 billion was 0.12%
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Well-capitalized Arkansas-based regional bank with a 120-year operating history, conservative underwriting, and a 3.67% dividend yield, trading below tangible book value after a large non-cash goodwill impairment in 2025
Trend status
Price trades near the upper end of the 52-week range after a steady recovery from the mid-2025 impairment selloff, with constructive intermediate moving averages and neutral daily momentum
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Simmons First National earns spread income and fee income from consumer banking, real estate lending, commercial lending, and wealth management across Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Kansas, with a branch-light strategy and a conservative credit culture. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from long-standing local relationships, brand recognition in Arkansas, a stable low-cost deposit base, and regulatory licenses. It is narrow because the geographic footprint is limited, switching costs for depositors are modest, and the bank competes with larger regional and national lenders. | Medium |
| Management | CEO George Makris Jr. has led the bank through multiple acquisitions and the 2025 goodwill impairment without cutting the dividend or raising capital. Capital allocation focuses on organic growth, expense discipline, and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue of $226.7 million and net income of $68.5 million or $0.47 per share reflect steady core operations. The $562.8 million non-cash goodwill impairment in Q3 2025 dominated trailing GAAP results. Operating cash flow of $457 million TTM and free cash flow of $423 million TTM show cash generation remains intact. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $22.86, SFNC trades at about 12.0x normalized TTM operating EPS of $1.91, 0.96x book value, 7.8x trailing free cash flow, and a 3.67% dividend yield. The PB below 1.0x reflects goodwill from prior acquisitions rather than credit stress. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SFNC has rallied from the mid-2025 lows near $17.00 to the current $22.86 area, recovering toward the 52-week high near $23.40. Moving averages are constructive and the RSI near 58 is neutral, not overbought. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include slow economic growth in the Arkansas and Oklahoma footprint, net interest margin compression in a falling rate environment, acquisition integration and goodwill overhang, loan concentration in commercial real estate, and competition from larger lenders. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported financials, market, and balance sheet data. Forecast confidence is medium because regional bank earnings depend on macro variables that shift faster than the bank can report. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | SFNC screens as a conservatively managed, dividend-paying regional bank with a below-book valuation and a slow-growth profile. Certainty depends on whether the market re-rates tangible book convergence and whether net interest margins stabilize or compress. | Medium |
SFNC AI stock forecast
The SFNC AI stock forecast uses normalized TTM operating EPS of about $1.91 as the earnings base, adjusting for the non-cash goodwill impairment that dominated GAAP results. Using 3-year growth inputs of 10%, 3%, and -10% and terminal multiples of 14x, 12x, and 9x, the audited model produced bullish value near $35.60, base value near $25.00, and bearish value near $12.50. These are scenario ranges, not price promises. The base case near $25.00 is close to the consensus analyst target of $23.00 and sits modestly above the current $22.86 price.
$30 to $36
More likely if SFNC sustains mid-single-digit loan growth, net interest margins stabilize or expand, credit costs stay low, operating leverage improves, and the market re-rates the bank toward 14x normalized earnings as tangible book convergence reduces the goodwill discount.
$22 to $26
More likely if loan growth tracks GDP-like levels, net interest margin compresses modestly, credit remains clean, and the market maintains a 12x multiple on normalized EPS near current levels.
$10 to $15
More likely if the Arkansas and Oklahoma economy weakens, net interest margin compresses sharply, credit costs rise, commercial real estate exposure generates losses, or the market re-rates the bank toward 9x earnings.
SFNC AI technical analysis
SFNC AI technical analysis uses market data available around the July 12, 2026 cutoff. SFNC closed near $22.86 on July 10, 2026, near the upper end of its 52-week range. The stock has rallied steadily from the mid-2025 lows near $17.00 after the goodwill impairment selloff, recovering toward the 52-week high of $23.40. TradingView showed a neutral daily summary with constructive moving averages. The RSI near 58 is neutral and not overbought, leaving room for further upside if fundamentals support.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $22.86 | July 10, 2026 close from Google Finance, Benzinga, and Nasdaq data feeds. |
| Immediate support | $22.00 to $22.50 | Recent price consolidation zone and the area just below the current close where the stock found buying interest in late June and early July. |
| Secondary support | $20.00 to $21.00 | The pre-impairment recovery level and a round-number zone where prior resistance turned support during the mid-2025 recovery. |
| Near resistance | $23.00 to $23.40 | The 52-week high of $23.40 and the round-number $23.00 area represent the immediate overhead supply. A clean break above this zone would mark a new recovery high. |
| Upside target zone | $24.00 to $25.00 | If the 52-week high gives way, the next resistance area aligns with the consensus analyst price target of $23.00 to $25.00 and the upper end of the base-case valuation range. |
| 50-day moving average | Estimated near $21.80 to $22.20 | The 50-day MA has been sloping up since the mid-2025 recovery and sits below the current price, providing a trend-support reference. |
| 200-day moving average | Estimated near $20.00 to $20.50 | The 200-day MA has been flattening after the recovery from the 2025 lows. Price above the 200-day confirms the intermediate-term uptrend. |
| Deeper support | $17.00 to $18.00 | The 52-week low area near $17.00 and the recovery base near $18.00 represent the final support zone before a structural trend reassessment. |
| Momentum | RSI near 58, neutral constructive | The RSI near 58 is in neutral territory, not overbought. This leaves room for additional upside without the extreme readings that often precede pullbacks. |
| Volume | About 925,000 shares on July 10 versus 1.3M to 1.5M average | Volume was below average on the latest session, typical of a consolidation near resistance. A volume surge on a breakout above $23.40 would add conviction to the bullish setup. |
| Invalidation | Close below $20.00 | A decisive break below the 200-day MA area near $20.00 to $20.50 would weaken the intermediate-term uptrend and suggest the recovery from the 2025 lows is stalling. |
SFNC AI trading strategy
The SFNC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with loan growth, net interest margin, credit quality, operating expenses, tangible book value trajectory, and dividend sustainability.
Watch for SFNC to break and hold above the $23.40 52-week high on above-average volume, confirming the recovery trend, while the bank demonstrates stable NIM, clean credit, and consistent operating EPS.
A close below $22.00 or a reversal from the $23.40 resistance zone without a fundamental catalyst should reduce trend-following confidence.
If SFNC pulls back toward the $20.00 to $21.00 area near the 200-day MA without deterioration in loan quality, NIM, or dividend coverage, compare the entry with the audited base and bearish scenarios before treating the pullback as attractive.
Do not treat every regional bank pullback as a buying opportunity if net interest margins are compressing, credit costs are rising, or the local economy is weakening.
For investors focused on book value convergence and dividend income, monitor tangible book value per share, the PB ratio, dividend payout ratio, and the bank's ability to grow tangible book over time without additional goodwill impairments.
Position sizing should reflect that SFNC trades below book value partly due to acquisition goodwill accounting. A sustained period without further impairments and steady TBV growth would strengthen the value case.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Simmons First National for local banking relationships, deposit safety, real estate and commercial loans, and wealth management services across Arkansas and neighboring states. The business model rewards consistent credit underwriting, low-cost deposit gathering, and expense discipline over rapid growth.
SFNC benefits from long-standing community relationships, a well-known brand in Arkansas, a stable low-cost deposit base, and conservative underwriting. The moat is narrow because its geographic footprint limits market size, deposit switching costs are modest, and larger regional and national competitors operate in the same markets.
The thesis fails if net interest margin compresses faster than expenses can be cut, the Arkansas and Oklahoma economies underperform, commercial real estate credit deteriorates, deposit costs rise faster than expected, or additional goodwill impairments emerge from past acquisition accounting.
George Makris Jr. and the leadership team have emphasized conservative lending, expense management, acquisition integration, and consistent shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. The key test is whether the bank can grow tangible book value per share and operating EPS in a low-growth footprint without resorting to dilutive acquisitions.
Regional banking faces persistent headwinds from net interest margin compression, deposit competition, technology investment demands, and regulatory costs. Community and regional banks that maintain low-cost deposits, clean credit, and expense discipline are better positioned than those needing aggressive loan growth to cover fixed costs.
At $22.86, SFNC trades below book value at 0.96x PB, at about 12x normalized operating EPS, and with a 3.67% dividend yield. The base-case valuation of about $25.00 and the bullish case of about $35.60 offer upside if operations stabilize and the market re-rates the bank. The bearish case of about $12.50 represents the risk if the footprint economy or credit conditions deteriorate meaningfully.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SFNC quote reference | About $22.86 close on July 10, 2026 | Google Finance and Benzinga SFNC overview | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $3.32 billion calculated from $22.86 x 145.06 million shares; tool deviation versus reported $3.32 billion was 0.12% | Pineify financial_rigor.py, Google Finance, and Benzinga | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 145.06 million shares outstanding per Google Finance and Benzinga market data | Google Finance and Benzinga | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 quarterly results | Revenue $226.74 million, net income $68.54 million, EPS $0.47, net profit margin 30.23% | Google Finance SFNC financials | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow | Operating cash flow TTM about $457.02 million; free cash flow TTM about $422.76 million | Benzinga SFNC financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Total cash about $548.58 million; total debt about $762.46 million; debt-to-equity ratio 0.22 | Benzinga SFNC financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Book value per share | Book value per share about $23.70; price-to-book ratio about 0.96x | Benzinga SFNC metrics | July 12, 2026 |
| Goodwill impairment in Q3 2025 | Non-cash goodwill impairment of about $562.79 million after tax in Q3 2025, causing a GAAP net loss for the quarter but not affecting cash flows, regulatory capital, or the dividend | Google Finance SFNC financials and SEC filings | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | Quarterly dividend $0.21 per share, annualized $0.84, yield approximately 3.67% | Google Finance and Benzinga dividend data | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | 52-week high of $23.40 and 52-week low of $17.00, beta approximately 0.90 | Google Finance and Benzinga market data | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation verification | Normalized PE ~12.0x on $1.91 operating EPS; PB ~0.96x; P/FCF ~7.8x; dividend yield ~3.67%; ROE ~8.06% | Pineify financial_rigor.py verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Bullish ~$35.60 (10% growth, 14x PE); Base ~$25.00 (3% growth, 12x PE); Bearish ~$12.50 (-10% growth, 9x PE) | Pineify financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Hold with average target $23.00; high $25.00 (Stephens, Buy), low $21.00 (D.A. Davidson, Hold); 5 analysts cover the stock | Google Finance analyst ratings | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical context | Daily technical summary neutral with constructive moving averages; RSI near 58; price near 52-week high of $23.40 | TradingView SFNC technicals | July 12, 2026 |
| Company profile | Founded 1903, headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas; about 2,900 employees; operates across Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Kansas | Google Finance company profile | July 12, 2026 |
This SFNC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026, and can be wrong if Simmons First National execution, loan growth, net interest margin, credit quality, operating expenses, local economic conditions, or market valuation changes.
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