First Hawaiian, Inc. research snapshot
FHB AI stock analysis reads First Hawaiian as a conservatively managed Hawaii-based regional bank that reported a Q2 2026 earnings beat on July 24, 2026, and on July 13, 2026 announced an all-stock acquisition of California-based TriCo Bancshares for about $2.0 billion, creating a combined bank with roughly $34 billion of assets. At the August 3, 2026 snapshot price of $28.12, the market capitalization was about $3.42 billion, down from the $30.58 July high as investors weigh mainland growth, EPS accretion, and the dilution and integration risk of the deal. Q2 2026 diluted EPS was $0.60 against a $0.59 estimate, net interest margin rose 6 basis points to 3.25%, and tangible book value reached $15.04 per share, but total deposits fell about $623 million in the quarter and 11 sell-side analysts carry an average Sell rating with a mean target near $30. This page uses forecast scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts, and it is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$28.12 intraday snapshot on August 3, 2026 (previous close $27.79)
Market cap
About $3.42 billion, verified as $28.12 x 121.68 million shares
AI score
57 / 100
Rating
Stable Hawaii franchise with a Q2 2026 earnings beat and improving net interest margin, now executing a large all-stock mainland expansion through the TriCo Bancshares deal, while deposits fell in Q2 and analyst consensus stays at Sell
Trend status
Pulled back from the July high near $30.58 to about $28.12 after the TriCo announcement and Q2 report, now below the 50-day average near $28.40 but above the 200-day average near $26.34, with RSI near 41
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | First Hawaiian earns net interest income and fee income from retail and commercial banking across Hawaii, Guam, and Saipan, with wealth management, insurance, trust, treasury, and card services. FY2025 revenue was $853.59 million and net income was $276.27 million. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from a 168-year island franchise, leading Hawaii market share, a low-cost core deposit base, branch density, and switching friction. The TriCo deal adds California scale, but the franchise remains concentrated in a small, slow-growing insular economy. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Bob Harrison has led the bank since its 2016 IPO spin-off from BNP Paribas. The team delivered a Q2 2026 beat, improved NIM, and clean credit, and it is pursuing a transformative mainland expansion through TriCo. Key risk is execution on a $2 billion all-stock integration. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 EPS was $0.60 versus a $0.59 estimate, net income was $73.4 million, NIM rose to 3.25%, and TBVPS reached $15.04. TTM EPS is about $2.30 and TTM net income about $284.9 million. The soft spot is deposits, which fell $623.2 million in Q2. | High |
| Valuation | At $28.12, FHB trades near 12.2x TTM EPS, about 1.21x book value, about 1.87x tangible book value, and a 3.71% dividend yield. The multiple is in line with regional bank peers, but the Sell consensus implies the market sees limited upside without deal synergies. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price fell from the $30.58 July high to about $28.12 after the deal and earnings, now below the 50-day average near $28.40 and above the 200-day average near $26.34. RSI near 41 is soft, and the pullback has room to extend toward the $27 zone. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include Hawaii tourism and economic concentration, Q2 deposit outflow, net interest margin pressure if deposit costs stay elevated, merger execution and integration risk, the roughly 35% share dilution from the TriCo deal, and short interest near 9.2% of shares. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high for reported financials, market data, deal terms, and capital ratios. Forward return confidence is lower because earnings depend on merger timing, cost synergies, deposit costs, Hawaii tourism, and rate policy that are hard to predict. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. FHB offers a stable island deposit franchise, a 3.7% dividend, and a clear mainland growth catalyst, but the stock is trading below its post-Q2 peak with a Sell consensus, deposit pressure, and merger overhang that reduce near-term certainty. | Medium |
FHB AI stock forecast
The FHB AI stock forecast is scenario-based because results now depend on TriCo deal timing, cost synergies, EPS accretion, deposit trends, and Hawaii plus California economic conditions. Using the $28.12 reference price, $2.30 TTM EPS, and a three-year framework, the mechanical range points to about $20.70 in a bear case, $30.20 in a base case, and $38.00 in a bullish case before dividends. Outcomes depend on how quickly merger synergies accrue, whether deposits stabilize, credit quality holds, and what multiple the market applies to a larger, more diversified Pacific bank.
$36 to $40 before dividends
More likely if the TriCo deal closes on schedule with EPS accretion, 25% cost savings materialize, deposits stabilize, NIM keeps expanding, Hawaii tourism and California economies hold, and the market re-rates FHB toward a premium regional bank multiple near 13.5x earnings.
$29 to $32 before dividends
More likely if the deal closes in Q4 2026 with modest accretion, EPS compounds near 3%, NIM stays near 3.2%, deposit costs ease gradually, credit remains stable, and the stock holds a mid-12s P/E multiple.
$20 to $23 before dividends
More likely if the deal is delayed or integration drags, deposits keep leaving, NIM compresses as funding costs rise, Hawaii tourism weakens, credit costs increase, or the market keeps FHB near a single-digit P/E because of dilution and low growth.
FHB AI technical analysis
FHB AI technical analysis starts from the $28.12 intraday snapshot on August 3, 2026 used for this static page. Based on the daily price history, the 52-week range is $22.65 to $30.58, the 50-day average is near $28.40, and the 200-day average is near $26.34. RSI(14) reads near 41, which is soft but not oversold. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $28.12 | Intraday snapshot on August 3, 2026; previous close was $27.79 on July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $27.70 to $28.00 | This zone brackets the recent closing lows around $27.79 and is the first downside marker after the post-earnings pullback. |
| Secondary support | $27.20 to $27.50 | The July 13 deal-day low near $27.26 and the June lows around $27.35 to $27.47 sit here and form the next floor. |
| Major support | $26.30 to $26.50 | This area aligns with the 200-day moving average near $26.34 and the early June swing low near $26.38, making it the key trend line for the longer-term setup. |
| Near resistance | $28.40 to $28.96 | The 50-day average near $28.40 and the July 24 earnings-day high near $28.96 form the first overhead test. |
| Intermediate resistance | $29.80 to $29.90 | The July 16 swing high near $29.81 is the next target if the recovery clears the $28.96 level. |
| 52-week high | $30.58 | Set on July 7, 2026. A sustained reclaim of the $30 zone would signal that the deal and earnings uncertainty is fully digested. |
| Analyst consensus | Average target near $30.38 | Eleven sell-side analysts average a target of about $30.38 with ratings ranging from Sell to Hold and no Buy ratings. |
| 20-day moving average | Near $28.10 | Price is right at the short-term average, so there is no clear short-term trend direction. |
| 50-day moving average | $28.40 | Price is slightly below the 50-day average, a mild near-term headwind. |
| 200-day moving average | $26.34 | Price is above the 200-day average, so the primary trend remains constructive until a break below the $26.30 to $26.50 zone. |
| Momentum | RSI near 41 | Momentum is soft after the pullback from $30.58. The stock is not oversold, so it can still drift lower. |
| Volume | Average near 2.96 million shares a day | Volume spiked above 10 million shares on the July 13 deal announcement. Normalized volume is moderate for a mid-cap bank. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.71 | Below-market historical volatility, though merger headlines and earnings can still drive single-day moves above 3%. |
| Invalidation | Close below $27.20, then $26.30 | A sustained close below $27.20 weakens the near-term picture. A break below $26.30 to $26.50 would put the primary trend at risk. |
FHB AI trading strategy
The FHB AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects chart levels with merger milestones, deposit trends, net interest margin, loan growth, credit quality, tangible book value, and Hawaii plus California economic conditions.
Look for FHB to reclaim the $28.40 to $28.96 zone with volume and then hold above it, with confirmation from stable deposits, continued NIM expansion, and no credit deterioration.
A failed recovery or a daily close below the $27.20 area should reduce confidence in the trend-following setup, especially while the merger overhang persists.
If FHB pulls back toward the $26.30 to $27.00 zone without a thesis break, compare the lower price with book value, tangible book value, dividend yield near 3.7%, and peer regional bank multiples.
Do not average down solely because the dividend looks attractive. Watch deposit trends, Hawaii tourism data, and merger execution, and define a maximum loss before entry.
Track TriCo deal milestones, quarterly EPS accretion, deposit balances, net interest margin, loan growth, net charge-offs, nonperforming assets, CET1 ratio, tangible book value per share, and dividend stability.
Position sizing should reflect that FHB is a regional bank with Hawaii concentration, a pending all-stock merger that dilutes existing shareholders near term, and an analyst consensus that remains at Sell.
Investment research summary
Customers in Hawaii, Guam, and Saipan pay First Hawaiian for deposit accounts, loans, wealth management, insurance, trust, treasury, and card services through a leading island bank franchise founded in 1858. The TriCo acquisition adds a California consumer and commercial banking franchise, expanding the model beyond Hawaii.
The moat rests on a 168-year brand, leading Hawaii market share, a low-cost core deposit base, island branch density, regulatory licenses, and customer switching friction. The TriCo deal diversifies the geography but does not by itself widen the pricing-power moat.
The thesis fails if Hawaii tourism or economic activity declines, deposits keep falling as competition for funding intensifies, NIM compresses, the TriCo merger is delayed or the integration costs exceed the 25% targeted cost savings, credit losses rise, or the roughly 35% share dilution never gets offset by EPS accretion.
Bob Harrison has led the bank since the 2016 IPO, and the team has shown conservative underwriting, improving NIM, clean credit, and a Q2 2026 beat. The pending $2 billion all-stock TriCo acquisition is the largest strategic bet under this management and will test integration skill and capital allocation discipline.
Regional banks face deposit competition, rate-driven margin pressure, technology investment costs, and regulation. First Hawaiian is insulated by island market leadership but constrained by Hawaii economic maturity; the TriCo deal is a deliberate move to diversify into a faster mainland market.
At about 12.2x TTM EPS, 1.21x book value, and 1.87x tangible book value with a 3.71% dividend yield, FHB is priced in line with regional bank peers. Margin of safety is limited because upside depends on merger synergies and EPS accretion that have not yet been earned, while the market keeps a Sell consensus on the stock.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FHB price | $28.12 intraday snapshot on August 3, 2026 (previous close $27.79) | Google Finance quote and StockAnalysis real-time price | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $3.42 billion, verified as $28.12 x 121.68 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 121.68 million common shares | StockAnalysis share statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | About $2.30 | StockAnalysis and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| P/E ratio | About 12.2x TTM EPS; forward P/E near 11.7 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis | August 4, 2026 |
| Price to book | About 1.21x book value (book value $23.22 per share as of June 30, 2026) | financial_rigor.py and Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Price to tangible book | About 1.87x tangible book value (tangible book value $15.04 per share) | financial_rigor.py and Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.26 quarterly, $1.04 annual, 3.71% yield; ex-dividend date August 17, 2026 | StockAnalysis dividend history and Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | Net income $73.4 million; diluted EPS $0.60 versus $0.59 estimate; reported July 24, 2026 | Q2 2026 earnings press release and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 details | Net interest income $171.0 million; NIM 3.25% (up 6 bps); efficiency ratio 56.2%; effective tax rate 22.9% | Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 balance sheet | Total assets $23.6 billion; gross loans $14.6 billion (up $136.5M QoQ); total deposits $20.2 billion (down $623.2M QoQ); equity $2.8 billion | Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 asset quality and capital | CET1 13.27%; Tier 1 leverage 9.46%; total capital 14.52%; net charge-offs 0.11% annualized; NPAs 0.27% of loans; TBVPS $15.04 | Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue $853.59 million (+7.53%); net income $276.27 million (+20.05%); EPS $2.20 | StockAnalysis financials and SEC 10-K | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM results | Revenue $881.07 million; net income $284.93 million; EPS $2.30; ROE 10.32% | StockAnalysis financials and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash flow | TTM operating cash flow $458.07 million; free cash flow $430.09 million ($3.53 per share) | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| TriCo Bancshares acquisition | All-stock deal announced July 13, 2026; TriCo shareholders receive 2.095 FHB shares per TCBK share (about $63.12 per TCBK share); combined assets about $34 billion; expected close by end of 2026 | First Hawaiian and TriCo merger press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Sell (11 analysts; 7 Hold, 4 Sell, 0 Buy); average target near $30.38; range $26 to $32 | Google Finance analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $22.65 to $30.58 | StockAnalysis price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Beta | About 0.71 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Moving averages | 50-day $28.40; 200-day $26.34 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| RSI (14-day) | Near 41, soft | StockAnalysis statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 11.15 million shares, about 9.17% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| CEO | Bob Harrison, Chairman, President and CEO since the 2016 IPO | Company press releases and SEC filings | August 4, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Bullish about $38.00 (7% EPS growth, 13.5x PE), Base about $30.20 (3% growth, 12x PE), Bearish about $20.70 (0% growth, 9x PE) | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 4, 2026 |
This FHB AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation to buy, sell, short, or hold First Hawaiian, Inc. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 4, 2026, and may be wrong if TriCo deal timing and synergies, deposits, net interest margin, credit costs, Hawaii tourism, interest rates, regulation, or market conditions change.
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