First Hawaiian, Inc. research snapshot
FHB AI stock analysis currently reads First Hawaiian as a stable, conservatively managed Hawaii-based regional bank with a 168-year operating history, insular deposit base, strong market share, and a 3.47% dividend yield. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, FHB traded near $30.13 with an independently verified market capitalization of about $3.67 billion. The setup is constructive but the upside is capped by Hawaii economic dependence, low loan growth, spread compression, and a small-bank valuation multiple. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$30.13
Market cap
$3.67 billion verified market cap
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Stable Hawaii-based regional bank with insular market advantages and low-growth tradeoffs
Trend status
Near 52-week high above $30, close to moving-average support and prior resistance
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | First Hawaiian earns spread income and fee income from consumer banking, commercial lending, wealth management, insurance, trust, and treasury services across Hawaii, Guam, and Saipan, with a leading market share in its primary market. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from long-established island relationships, brand recognition, core deposit base, local branch density, regulatory licenses, and switching friction, but the narrow geography limits the economic moat width. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Robert S. Harrison has led First Hawaiian since its 2016 IPO and the bank has maintained conservative underwriting, stable margins, and a clean balance sheet, though Hawaii-specific challenges limit growth optionality. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 total revenue was about $1.168 billion and net income was about $276.3 million. Pre-tax margin was about 30.3% and after-tax ROE was about 10.0% at FY2025. Q1 2026 EPS was $0.55 on consensus of $0.53. | High |
| Valuation | At $30.13, FHB screened near 13.21x TTM EPS, 1.32x book value, 12.10x free cash flow, and a 3.47% dividend yield using verified financial data. | Medium |
| Technical trend | FHB trades near its 52-week high of $30.58. The Nasdaq API showed a previous close of $30.01 and a recent high of $30.58, with average volume around 1.67 million shares. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are Hawaii economic and tourism concentration, population outflow, natural disaster exposure, net interest margin compression, low organic loan growth, small-cap bank valuation, and limited earnings catalysts. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high for reported financials and market data. Forward return confidence is lower because a small regional bank depends on Hawaii economic conditions, rate trajectory, and credit trends that are harder to predict than for a diversified national bank. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FHB offers a stable Hawaii deposit franchise and a reasonable dividend yield, but investment certainty is medium because the stock has low growth potential, limited trading liquidity, and a valuation that reflects the insular market ceiling. | Medium |
FHB AI stock forecast
The FHB AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the Hawaii economy, interest rates, and spread income drive results. Using the $30.13 reference price, $2.28 TTM EPS, and the verified three-year model, the mechanical range points to about $17.60 in a bear case, $32.40 in a base case, and $40.70 in a bullish case before dividends. Outcomes depend on Hawaii economic growth, net interest income trends, credit stability, and the valuation multiple investors apply to a small regional bank.
$39 to $42 before dividends
More likely if FHB compounds EPS near 6% annually, Hawaii tourism and economy remain strong, NIM stabilizes or improves, credit stays clean, deposit costs decline, and investors apply about 15x earnings to a stable Hawaii bank.
$31 to $34 before dividends
More likely if EPS compounds near 3%, NIM normalizes gradually, Hawaii economic growth matches mainland trends, credit remains manageable, and the market values the bank at about 13x normalized earnings.
$16 to $19 before dividends
More likely if Hawaii tourism or economic activity weakens, NIM compresses further, loan losses rise, deposit costs stay elevated, population outflow accelerates, or the market values the bank near 9x stressed earnings.
FHB AI technical analysis
FHB AI technical analysis is moderately constructive as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. FHB closed near $30.13, close to its 52-week high of $30.58 and above the prior trading range. The near-term trend is positive but the stock is close to resistance, making breakout confirmation and risk management important.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $30.13 | Nasdaq API last sale price as of July 9, 2026 close. |
| Near support | $29.00 to $29.50 | This zone brackets recent pullback lows and is the first level to watch if FHB corrects from the high. |
| Deeper support | $27.00 to $28.00 | This area aligns with prior consolidation levels and the 50-day moving-average proxy before the recent run-up. |
| Near resistance | $30.58 | The 52-week high is the immediate overhead resistance. A breakout above it would need volume and catalyst confirmation. |
| Upper resistance | $32 to $34 | This range aligns with the base-case scenario and would likely require stable earnings, stable or improving NIM, and no negative credit surprises. |
| 52-week range | $22.64 to $30.58 | The stock has rallied from the 52-week low and is now near the top end, making risk-reward less compelling without a confirmed breakout. |
| Momentum | Positive near-term | FHB has been rising from the $22.64 low and is testing the upper end of the range. Momentum could shift on the upcoming July 24, 2026 earnings report. |
| Volume | Average near 1.67 million shares | Volume is modest for a small-cap bank. Breakouts and breakdowns may require several sessions to confirm. |
| Volatility | Moderate for a small regional bank | FHB can move on earnings, Hawaii economic data, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and regional bank sentiment. |
| Invalidation | Close below $29.00 | A sustained break below the near-support zone would reduce trend confidence. A deeper break below $27 would point to a more significant trend change. |
FHB AI trading strategy
The FHB AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with Hawaii economic trends, NIM, loan growth, deposits, credit quality, dividend metrics, and regional bank sentiment.
Watch for FHB to break above $30.58 with above-average volume and earnings confirming stable NIM, steady loan demand, clean credit, and stable Hawaii economic conditions.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $29.00 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals weaker NIM, higher credit costs, or softer Hawaii economic conditions.
If FHB pulls back toward the $27 to $28 zone while Hawaii economic data and bank fundamentals remain stable, compare the lower price with book value, EPS, dividend yield, and peer regional bank valuations.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if Hawaii tourism weakens, credit losses rise, population outflow accelerates, or NIM compression deepens.
Track net interest income, NIM, loan growth, deposit trends, net charge-offs, nonperforming assets, CET1 ratio, tangible book value per share, Hawaii economic indicators, tourism data, and dividend stability.
Position sizing should reflect that FHB is a small-cap regional bank with Hawaii geographic concentration and limited earnings catalysts, not a diversified high-growth compounding business.
Investment research summary
First Hawaiian provides deposit, lending, wealth, insurance, trust, and treasury services to consumers and businesses in the geographically constrained markets of Hawaii, Guam, and Saipan. The bank monetizes island deposit franchises through spread lending and relationship-based fee income.
The moat comes from 168 years of brand equity, island market share, core deposit relationships, branch density, local underwriting knowledge, and switching friction. However, the moat is narrow rather than wide because Hawaii is a small, slow-growing economy that limits compoundable scale.
The thesis fails if Hawaii tourism or military spending declines, population outflow continues, NIM compresses further as deposit costs rise, loan growth stalls, credit losses normalize higher, natural disaster disrupts operations, or the stock becomes a perpetual low-growth regional bank discount.
CEO Robert S. Harrison has led the bank since its 2016 IPO spin-off from BNP Paribas, providing continuity and a conservatively managed balance sheet with clean credit and stable dividend policy. The key-person risk is whether the team can find growth levers beyond Hawaii.
Regional banks face margin pressure from deposit competition, rate cycles, digital transformation costs, and regulatory requirements. First Hawaiian is insulated by its island market dominance but constrained by the maturity and concentration of the Hawaii economy.
At $30.13, FHB trades at roughly 13.2x TTM EPS and 1.32x book value with a 3.47% dividend yield. Margin of safety is limited because the price already reflects stability, and the low-growth ceiling means upside depends mainly on multiple expansion or rate-driven NIM improvement rather than compounding.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $30.13 last sale as of July 9, 2026; previous close $30.01 | Nasdaq API FHB info | July 12, 2026 |
| Verified market capitalization | $3.67 billion using $30.13 price and about 121.65 million shares | Nasdaq API and financial_rigor.py market cap check | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 121.65 million common shares | Derived from market cap and price cross-check via Nasdaq API | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 total revenue | $1,168.3 million, net of interest expense | Nasdaq API income statement for FHB | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $276.3 million net income applicable to common shareholders | Nasdaq API income statement for FHB | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash and equivalents | $7.09 billion | Nasdaq API balance sheet for FHB | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 total equity | $2.77 billion | Nasdaq API balance sheet for FHB | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating cash flow | $335.1 million operating cash flow; $303.3 million free cash flow | Nasdaq API cash flow statement for FHB | July 12, 2026 |
| Quarterly EPS (TTM) | TTM EPS of $2.28: Jun 2025 $0.58, Sep 2025 $0.59, Dec 2025 $0.56, Mar 2026 $0.55 | Nasdaq API FHB EPS data | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 13.21x TTM PE, 1.32x PB, 12.10x P/FCF, 3.47% dividend yield, 10.01% ROE | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range and dividend | 52-week range $22.64 to $30.58; annualized dividend $1.04 (3.47% yield); ex-dividend May 18, 2026 | Nasdaq API FHB summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Upcoming earnings | Next earnings date July 24, 2026 | Nasdaq API FHB info | July 12, 2026 |
This FHB AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the cutoff date and can be wrong if Hawaii economic conditions, interest rates, credit costs, tourism trends, deposit costs, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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