ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc. research snapshot
SFBS AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads ServisFirst Bancshares as a high-performing, relationship-driven commercial bank serving the Southeastern United States. The stock closed at $89.50 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $4.89 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $89.50 times 54.67 million shares outstanding, matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages and the Q2 2026 earnings release, which reported average diluted shares of 54,702,886. The Q2 2026 report, released July 20, 2026, beat expectations with net income up 39.7% year over year to $85.8 million, diluted EPS of $1.57 up 40.2%, a net interest margin of 3.63% up 53 basis points, and an efficiency ratio of 29.65%, the third consecutive quarter below 30%. Loans grew $533 million, or 15.3% annualized, during the quarter with the loan pipeline at a record level, while book value per share rose 14.8% to $36.19. The board also declared a two-for-one stock split, payable August 20, 2026, that will double shares to about 109.3 million. The stock trades at 15.25x trailing EPS, 2.47x book value, and about 1.70% dividend yield, with a 14-day RSI near 61.5 and a 52-week range of $67.20 to $90.64. Offsetting the momentum are commercial real estate concentration that ticked above 300% of capital, a nonperforming asset ratio that rose from 0.42% to 0.96% year over year on a large real-estate-secured relationship, a premium book multiple, and slight liability sensitivity to interest rates. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$89.50
Market cap
$4.89 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-ROE Southeastern bank with NIM expansion, a record loan pipeline, and a sub-30% efficiency ratio, offset by a premium valuation, CRE concentration above 300% of capital, and rising nonperforming assets
Trend status
Constructive, trading near the 52-week high at $89.50 with a YTD return of about 24.7%, above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ServisFirst is a relationship-driven commercial bank serving business customers in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia, with Q2 2026 net income of $85.8 million, return on average assets of 1.91%, and an efficiency ratio of 29.65%. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from local relationship banking, a core deposit base with $3.0 billion of noninterest-bearing demand deposits up 13.8% year over year, disciplined underwriting, and banking licenses across the Southeastern footprint. Regional banking remains competitive and customers can switch for better rates or service. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Tom Broughton leads a lean team that delivered 40% EPS growth, a record loan pipeline, nine new banker hires including a Houston market president, and a sub-30% efficiency ratio for a third straight quarter, with insiders owning about 6.54% of the stock. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net income rose 39.7% to $85.8 million, diluted EPS rose 40.2% to $1.57, NIM expanded 53 basis points to 3.63%, loans grew 15.3% annualized, and first-half EPS of $3.09 was up 35.1%, with return on average assets of 1.91% and return on average common equity of 17.71%. | High |
| Valuation | At $89.50, SFBS trades at 15.25x trailing EPS, 2.47x book value, 13.22x free cash flow, and a 1.70% dividend yield, with a forward PE of about 13.06. The P/B premium reflects the high ROE and low-cost funding model. | High |
| Technical trend | Price near $89.50 is above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of about $87.05, $83.39, $79.79, and $78.06, within about 1.3% of the 52-week high of $90.64, with a YTD gain of about 24.7%. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are commercial real estate concentration at 307% of capital, a nonperforming asset ratio of 0.96% up from 0.42% year over year, slight liability sensitivity if rates rise, premium book valuation, Houston expansion execution, and Southeast regional economic concentration. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because current facts are public and cross-checked via financial_rigor.py and multi-source validation. Return confidence is lower because rates, credit costs, deposit competition, and regional sentiment can move bank stocks quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | SFBS is a high-quality bank with exceptional profitability, but the premium book multiple means the market already prices in good performance. A buy decision depends on whether the bank sustains ROE near 18% without credit deterioration. | Medium |
SFBS AI stock forecast
The SFBS AI stock forecast is scenario-based because regional bank earnings depend on NIM, loan growth, credit costs, deposit competition, and capital management. Using the $89.50 reference price, the $6.43 FY2026 consensus EPS, and the three-year model, the mechanical range points to about $70 in a bear case, $105 in a base case, and $145 in a bullish case before dividends. All per-share figures are pre-split; after the two-for-one split effective August 20, 2026, the share count doubles to about 109.3 million and the reference price is roughly half.
$135 to $150 before dividends
More likely if NIM keeps expanding 4 to 6 basis points a quarter, loan growth stays double-digit, credit stays clean, the Houston and Texas markets ramp, and the market applies a forward P/E closer to 16x for a high-ROE bank.
$100 to $115 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows near 8% annually, NIM expansion continues but slows, credit remains manageable, deposits grow with the regional economy, and the market holds SFBS near 13x forward earnings.
$65 to $78 before dividends
More likely if the large nonperforming relationship leads to losses, CRE stress emerges in the Southeast, NIM expansion stalls, deposit competition squeezes margins, or the market compresses the multiple toward 10x.
SFBS AI technical analysis
SFBS AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $89.50 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of about $87.05, $83.39, $79.79, and $78.06, with a 14-day RSI near 61.5 and a 14-day ADX near 27.3. With the stock within about 1.3% of the 52-week high of $90.64, a clean breakout would need volume confirmation, while the two-for-one split payable August 20, 2026 adds event risk to the setup.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $89.50 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 54.67 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $89.29 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $89.29, just below the July 31 close, consistent with a steady short-term uptrend. |
| Near support | $87.00 to $87.05 | The 20-day moving average sits near $87.05 on Barchart and acts as the first pullback support zone. |
| Next support | $83.00 to $83.39 | The 50-day moving average is near $83.39 on Barchart and StockAnalysis, a key trend line for medium-term strength. |
| Deeper support | $78.00 to $78.06 | The 200-day moving average is near $78.06, and the 100-day sits near $79.79, forming a longer-term support cluster. |
| Near resistance | $90.64 | The 52-week high of $90.64 is overhead. A clean break above it with volume would signal trend continuation. |
| Upper resistance | $94.00 to $100.00 | This zone brackets the analyst price target range, with Piper Sandler at $94, the average at $97, and the high at $100. |
| Momentum | RSI near 61.5, ADX near 27.3 | The 14-day RSI near 61.5 is strong but not overbought, and the 14-day ADX near 27.3 on Barchart confirms a trending move. |
| Volume | About 287,000 average shares | Barchart lists 20-day average volume near 287,470 shares and StockAnalysis near 286,613, moderate for a regional bank. |
| Volatility | Moderate, elevated near the split | Barchart reports 14-day historic volatility near 21%, so the August 20 stock split and Q3 results are the main event risks. |
| Invalidation | Close below $83.39, then below $78.06 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $83.39 would weaken the trend; a close below the 200-day near $78.06 would turn it bearish. |
SFBS AI trading strategy
The SFBS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with NIM, loan growth, credit quality, deposits, ROE, capital ratios, and Southeastern economic trends, and it accounts for the pending two-for-one stock split.
Watch for SFBS to hold above the 20-day moving average near $87.05 and to break above the 52-week high of $90.64 with volume, supported by Q3 earnings confirming NIM expansion, clean credit, and record pipeline conversion.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the 20-day near $87.05 should reduce confidence, especially if guidance signals rising nonperforming assets or slower NIM expansion.
If SFBS pulls back toward the $83.00 to $87.00 support zone while NIM and credit fundamentals remain intact, compare the lower price with book value per share of $36.18, ROE near 17%, and dividend yield near 1.70%.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the nonperforming asset ratio keeps climbing, CRE concentration rises, or deposit costs start to squeeze the margin.
Track NIM, annualized loan growth, the nonperforming asset ratio, net charge-offs, allowance coverage, CRE concentration relative to capital, deposit mix, CET1, the efficiency ratio, the Houston ramp, insider activity, and the stock split mechanics with a record date of August 5, 2026.
Position sizing should reflect the premium book multiple, the concentration in CRE and the Southeast, and the event risk around the August 20 split distribution.
Investment research summary
Customers pay ServisFirst for commercial loans, treasury and cash management, deposit services, and correspondent banking across the Southeastern US. The bank earns net interest income on funded assets plus fee income, with Q2 2026 net interest income of $155.6 million.
ServisFirst benefits from deep local relationships, a low-cost core deposit base with $3.0 billion of noninterest-bearing demand deposits, disciplined underwriting, and the regulatory licensing needed for community banking. The moat is real but limited because regional banking is competitive on rates and service.
The thesis fails if commercial real estate credit losses rise from the concentration above 300% of capital, the large nonperforming relationship turns into losses, NIM expansion stalls, deposit competition squeezes margins, Houston expansion underperforms, or a Southeast recession hits the concentrated footprint.
CEO Tom Broughton leads a lean team focused on disciplined credit, organic growth, and customer service, with nine new bankers added in Q2 including a Houston market president. The key-person question is whether underwriting discipline and the relationship model persist as the bank grows.
Southeastern regional banks continue to benefit from population growth, business formation, and economic migration. The headwinds are rate direction, deposit competition, large-bank dominance, fintech, and the possibility of credit normalization after years of benign conditions.
At $89.50, SFBS trades at 2.47x book value and 15.25x trailing EPS. The premium book multiple versus regional peers reflects exceptional ROE and low leverage, but leaves less room for error. Margin of safety improves if ROE stays near 18% and credit remains clean.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SFBS price | $89.50 at the July 31, 2026 close, up 0.31% | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.89 billion, computed as $89.50 x 54.67 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 54.67 million, matching average diluted shares of 54,702,886 in the Q2 2026 earnings release and 54,663,123 in the Q1 2026 10-Q via SEC EDGAR XBRL | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $585.22 million, up 19.8% year over year, with the financials page showing $586.58 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $320.66 million, up 28.4% year over year, representing a profit margin near 54.8% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Net income of $85.8 million up 39.7%, diluted EPS of $1.57 up 40.2%, and adjusted diluted EPS up 29.8% from $1.21 | ServisFirst Bancshares Q2 2026 earnings release | July 20, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 margin and efficiency | Net interest margin of 3.63% up 10 basis points linked quarter and 53 basis points year over year, efficiency ratio of 29.65% down from 33.46% | ServisFirst Bancshares Q2 2026 earnings release | July 20, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 loan and deposit growth | Loans grew $533 million, or 15.3% annualized, to $14.48 billion; deposits grew $686 million, or 5%, to $14.55 billion with noninterest-bearing demand deposits up 13.8% to $3.0 billion | ServisFirst Bancshares Q2 2026 earnings release | July 20, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $36.19 at June 30, 2026, up 14.8% year over year, with tangible book value per share of $35.94 | ServisFirst Bancshares Q2 2026 earnings release | July 20, 2026 |
| Capital ratios | CET1 to risk-weighted assets of 11.83% up 45 basis points year over year, total capital of 13.09%, Tier 1 leverage of 10.93%, and tangible common equity to tangible assets of 10.72% | ServisFirst Bancshares Q2 2026 earnings release | July 20, 2026 |
| Credit quality | Nonperforming assets to total assets of 0.96% versus 0.42% a year ago, annualized net charge-offs of 0.11% down from 0.25% linked quarter, and an allowance for credit losses to total loans of 1.26% | ServisFirst Bancshares Q2 2026 earnings release | July 20, 2026 |
| Liquidity | Cash and cash equivalents of $1.46 billion, about 8% of total assets, with no FHLB advances or brokered deposits | ServisFirst Bancshares Q2 2026 earnings release | July 20, 2026 |
| Earnings call color | The loan pipeline is at a record level, C&I line utilization improved, payoffs are returning toward historical norms, the CRE concentration is at 307% of capital, Houston funded about $50 million of loans in the quarter, and the balance sheet is roughly neutral with slight liability sensitivity to rates | ServisFirst Bancshares Q2 2026 earnings call | July 20, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $525.76 million up 14.61% and net income of $276.54 million up 21.73%, with the financials page showing revenue of $527.12 million | StockAnalysis.com overview and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 15.25x trailing PE, 2.47x PB, 2.49x P/TBV, 13.22x P/FCF, 8.36x PS, and 1.70% dividend yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | Forward PE of 13.06 on the statistics page, about 13.92 computed as $89.50 divided by the $6.43 FY2026 consensus estimate | StockAnalysis.com statistics and forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Profitability metrics | Return on equity of 17.34% and return on assets of 1.80% on the statistics page, versus 17.71% ROE and 1.91% ROAA for Q2 2026 in the earnings release | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 3 analysts with an average target of $97.00, low $94.00, and high $100.00 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 21, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 2 Strong Buy and 1 Buy out of 3 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 21, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler update | Stephen Scouten raised the price target to $94 from $91 and reiterated an Overweight rating on July 21, 2026 | TipRanks via StockAnalysis.com news feed | July 21, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $682.59 million with EPS of $6.43, and FY2027 revenue of $763.73 million with EPS of $7.27 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 21, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.55 million shares short, 2.83% of shares outstanding, 3.03% of float, and 6.98 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Ownership | Insiders own about 6.54% and institutions about 72.90% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com statistics share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $1.52 per share for a yield of 1.70%, with quarterly dividends of $0.38 in 2026 and a payout ratio of about 25.89% | StockAnalysis.com dividend page | August 3, 2026 |
| Two-for-one stock split | Board declared a two-for-one common stock split in the form of a stock dividend, payable August 20, 2026 to holders of record August 5, 2026, increasing shares from about 54.7 million to about 109.3 million | ServisFirst Bancshares stock split press release | July 20, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $89.29, 20-day SMA near $87.05, 50-day SMA near $83.39, 100-day SMA near $79.79, 200-day SMA near $78.06, 14-day RSI near 61.5, 14-day ADX near 27.3, 14-day historic volatility near 21% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
This SFBS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the cutoff date and can be wrong if interest rates, credit losses, deposit costs, capital rules, short interest, valuation multiples, stock split timing, or market conditions change.
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