Ameris Bancorp research snapshot
ABCB AI stock analysis currently reads Ameris Bancorp as a well-capitalized southeastern regional bank with above-peer core profitability, a clean credit book, and a disciplined strategy of organic growth plus measured expansion into faster-growing markets like Nashville. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, ABCB traded near $88.30 with an independently verified market capitalization of about $5.91 billion. The Q2 2026 report released July 23, 2026 showed adjusted EPS of $1.60 that missed the $1.66 consensus, revenue of $326.02 million that beat the $323.78 million estimate, and GAAP EPS of $0.77 that was pulled down by an $82.5 million litigation accrual. The ABCB AI stock forecast therefore uses scenarios, not a single price prediction, and treats adjusted earnings growth, net interest income, deposit costs, credit quality, loan growth, capital returns, and regional bank sentiment as the key variables. The stock trades near its 50-day moving average, about 5% below the 52-week high, at roughly 15.9x trailing earnings, 13x forward adjusted earnings, and 1.47x book value with a 0.91% dividend yield. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$88.30
Market cap
$5.91 billion verified market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Hold-rated premium southeastern regional bank with strong core profitability and a limited near-term margin of safety
Trend status
Neutral-to-positive, near the 50-day moving average of $88.01 and well above the 200-day moving average of $81.00 after a roughly 5% pullback from the 52-week high of $93.22, with RSI in neutral territory
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ameris earns spread and fee income from commercial banking, retail and consumer banking, mortgage lending, warehouse lending, premium finance, SBA lending, and equipment finance across the Southeast. Q2 2026 adjusted ROA of 1.53%, adjusted ROTCE of 14.08%, and a 3.88% core net interest margin show above-peer core profitability. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from local deposit relationships, a 30% non-interest-bearing deposit mix, branch density across Georgia, Alabama, Florida, and the Carolinas, SBA and premium finance niche expertise, regulatory licenses, switching friction, and local market knowledge. It is useful but not dominant because banking remains price competitive. | Medium |
| Management | The team led by CEO Palmer Proctor has emphasized relationship banking, disciplined credit, operating efficiency with a 50.4% adjusted efficiency ratio, and shareholder returns with $93.8 million of year-to-date buybacks and a $0.20 quarterly dividend while managing an $82.5 million litigation accrual. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 GAAP EPS was $0.77 due to an $82.5 million litigation accrual, while adjusted EPS of $1.60 missed the $1.66 consensus on revenue of $326.02 million that beat the $323.78 million estimate. Net interest margin held at 3.88%, loans grew about 6% annualized, and credit stayed clean with net charge-offs near 20 basis points. | High |
| Valuation | At $88.30, financial_rigor.py calculates 15.94x trailing EPS, 13.3x forward adjusted EPS, 1.47x book value, and a 0.91% dividend yield. The valuation sits above the typical southeastern regional bank, which is partly justified by above-peer profitability but leaves less room for error. | High |
| Technical trend | ABCB sits near its 50-day moving average of $88.01 and well above its 200-day moving average of $81.00 after pulling back about 5% from the 52-week high of $93.22. RSI near 43.6 is neutral, and the stock is up about 18% year to date and about 33% over one year. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are the Q2 litigation accrual and its appeal outcome, deposit cost pressure on the margin, credit loss normalization, southeastern geographic concentration, expansion execution in Nashville, small-cap bank multiple compression, and the premium valuation versus peers. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because financial data is public and cross-checked across StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance, MarketBeat, BusinessWire, and the Q2 2026 earnings call transcript. Return confidence is lower because the stock recently absorbed an earnings miss, a one-time legal charge, and analyst downgrades. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ABCB has a clean credit profile and above-peer profitability, but the stock trades near analyst price targets of $88 to $100 with an average near $94, and the Q2 report added earnings and litigation noise, which limits the margin of safety for a new entry. | Medium |
ABCB AI stock forecast
The ABCB AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the bank operates in a rate- and credit-sensitive sector where small-cap regional banks can reprice quickly. Using the $88.30 price reference, the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of about $6.64, and the audited three-year model, the mechanical range points to roughly $66 in a bear case, $96 in a base case, and $133 in a bullish case before dividends, depending on adjusted EPS growth, net interest margin, deposit costs, credit losses, capital deployment, and regional bank valuation multiples.
$120 to $140 before dividends
More likely if ABCB compounds adjusted EPS near 8-10% annually through higher loan and deposit growth, stable NIM around 3.8-3.9%, controlled credit losses, successful Nashville expansion, continued buybacks, and the market applying a 14-15x multiple to higher earnings.
$85 to $100 before dividends
More likely if adjusted EPS grows near 5-6% annually in line with the mid-single-digit loan and deposit growth guidance, the NIM drifts down a few basis points per quarter as management expects, credit stays clean, and the market holds ABCB near 12-13x adjusted earnings.
$55 to $70 before dividends
More likely if deposit costs compress the NIM faster than expected, credit losses normalize above the 20-25 basis point guidance, the litigation accrual escalates or repeats, the southeastern economy slows, or the premium regional bank multiple contracts toward 9-10x reduced earnings.
ABCB AI technical analysis
ABCB AI technical analysis is neutral-to-positive as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded near $88.30, just above its 50-day moving average of $88.01 and well above its 200-day moving average of $81.00, after pulling back roughly 5% from the 52-week high of $93.22 set before the July 23, 2026 earnings release. The stock is up about 18% year to date and about 33% over one year, with an RSI near 43.6 that shows momentum reset after the pullback.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $88.30 | StockAnalysis real-time quote for August 3, 2026, with a previous close of $87.21 from the last completed trading session. |
| Immediate support | $85 to $87 | This zone covers recent post-earnings trading lows near $85.00 and the lower end of August day ranges. |
| Deeper support | $80 to $82 | This zone aligns with the 200-day moving average near $81.00 and is the main trend reference if the pullback extends. |
| Near resistance | $90 to $93.22 | The 52-week high of $93.22 set in mid-July 2026 is the main hurdle. A move above the $90 area would begin to repair the post-earnings pullback. |
| Moving averages | 50-day MA $88.01, 200-day MA $81.00 | Price sits near the 50-day moving average and well above the 200-day moving average, which keeps the primary trend constructive. |
| Momentum | RSI near 43.6; YTD +18%, 1-year +33% | Momentum reset from overbought to neutral after the Q2 report. The longer-term trend remains strong after a 52-week gain of about 33%. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume near 471,000 shares | Average daily volume is moderate. Watch volume on any move above $90 or below $85 for confirmation. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.91 | Beta below 1.0 makes ABCB lower volatility than the market, but bank stocks can still swing on deposit costs, credit headlines, and the litigation appeal. |
| Invalidation | Close below $85, then below $80 | A sustained close below $85 would weaken the near-term setup, and a break below the $80 to $82 zone would challenge the longer-term uptrend. |
ABCB AI trading strategy
The ABCB AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with adjusted EPS, net interest income, NIM, deposit costs, loan growth, net charge-offs, reserve coverage, CET1, tangible book value, operating efficiency, the litigation appeal, and regional bank sentiment.
Watch for ABCB to hold the $85 to $87 support zone and reclaim the $90 to $93.22 resistance with earnings confirming stable NIM, controlled deposit costs, clean credit, steady loan growth, and credible Nashville progress.
A failed recovery that closes below $85 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals faster margin compression, rising charge-offs, or an adverse litigation appeal outcome.
If ABCB pulls back toward the $80 to $82 zone while NIM, credit, deposits, and capital remain sound, compare the lower price with tangible book value near $45, adjusted EPS of about $6.60, dividend coverage, and capital ratios.
Do not treat a lower price as attractive if deposit costs spike, credit quality deteriorates, the litigation exposure grows, or regional bank sentiment weakens at the same time.
Track adjusted EPS, NIM, net interest income, deposit costs and mix, loan and deposit growth, net charge-offs, reserve coverage, CET1, tangible book value per share, adjusted efficiency ratio, buyback pace, and Nashville and other expansion progress.
Position sizing should reflect that ABCB is a mid-cap regional bank with a premium multiple, rate and local economic sensitivity, and a pending litigation appeal, not a high-certainty compounding business with full pricing power.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Ameris Bank for deposit safekeeping, commercial and consumer lending, treasury services, SBA and USDA government-guaranteed lending, premium finance, mortgage origination, warehouse lending, equipment finance, and wealth management. The bank earns spread income on funded assets plus relationship-driven fees, with a 3.88% core net interest margin and adjusted ROA of 1.53% in Q2 2026.
The moat comes from local deposit relationships, a 30% non-interest-bearing deposit mix, branch density in Georgia, Alabama, Florida, and the Carolinas, SBA and premium finance niche expertise, regulatory licenses, switching friction, and underwriting data. It is useful but not dominant because customers can still shop rates, credit terms, and service quality.
The thesis fails if Ameris over-extends in Nashville without adequate underwriting, credit losses normalize well above the 20-25 basis point guidance, deposit competition compresses the margin faster than a few basis points per quarter, the litigation accrual escalates on appeal, the premium small-cap bank multiple contracts, or the Southeast economy slows.
CEO Palmer Proctor and CFO Nicole Stokes have delivered above-peer profitability, a 50.4% adjusted efficiency ratio, $93.8 million of year-to-date buybacks, and a $0.20 quarterly dividend while managing an $82.5 million litigation accrual. The key-person question is whether the team can sustain the premium ROA and growth as it expands into Nashville and manages deposit costs.
Regional banks remain important for U.S. commercial credit, deposits, payments, SBA lending, and local economic development in the Southeast. The sector faces deposit cost pressure, fintech competition, and regulatory capital requirements. Southeastern banks benefit from stronger population and business growth than many other U.S. regions, which supports Ameris mid-single-digit loan and deposit growth guidance.
At $88.30, ABCB trades near 15.9x trailing earnings, 13x forward adjusted earnings, 1.47x book value, and 1.96x tangible book value with a 0.91% dividend yield. The premium to peers reflects above-peer profitability but leaves a modest margin of safety after the post-earnings pullback, with analyst targets ranging from $88 to $100. Margin of safety improves if adjusted EPS grows toward the base case without credit deterioration, or if the stock pulls back toward $80 while fundamentals stay intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $88.30 real-time on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis ABCB quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Verified market cap | $5.91 billion using $88.30 price and 66.88 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py market cap check | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS | $1.60 adjusted diluted EPS, missing $1.66 consensus | StockAnalysis Q2 2026 earnings call transcript and TheFly | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP EPS | $0.77 diluted EPS after an $82.5 million litigation accrual | Ameris Bancorp Q2 2026 earnings release via BusinessWire | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $326.02 million, above the $323.78 million consensus | StockAnalysis and TheFly Q2 2026 summary | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | $376.32 million with $5.54 diluted EPS | StockAnalysis statistics and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Net interest margin | 3.88% in Q2 2026, stable and 100% core | StockAnalysis Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $60.19 per share, tangible book value $44.53 | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Capital ratios | CET1 12.8%, tangible common equity 11% at June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 15.94x TTM P/E, 13.3x forward adjusted P/E, 1.47x book, 1.96x tangible book, 0.91% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification using market data | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $65.43 to $93.22 | StockAnalysis statistics and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.20 quarterly, $0.80 annual, 0.91% yield | StockAnalysis dividends and BusinessWire announcement | August 3, 2026 |
| Share buyback | $200 million program authorized October 20, 2025; $93.8 million repurchased year to date through Q2 2026 | MarketBeat and Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 7 analysts; StockAnalysis consensus Buy with average target $94.17 and range $88 to $100; MarketBeat consensus Hold with average target $91.67 | StockAnalysis forecast and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day MA $88.01, 200-day MA $81.00, RSI 43.6, beta 0.91, 20-day average volume about 471,000 shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This ABCB AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if rates, credit quality, deposits, regional economic conditions, the litigation appeal, small-cap bank sentiment, or valuation multiples change.
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