Bullish case
$23.5 to $28.5
More likely if FFO per share compounds near 6%, the senior housing pivot improves margins, occupancy trends strengthen, interest rates ease, operator credit stays healthy, and the market supports about 14x forward FFO.
Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. research snapshot
SBRA AI Stock Analysis
SBRA AI stock analysis currently reads Sabra Health Care REIT as a mid-cap healthcare REIT focused on skilled nursing and senior housing properties across the United States and Canada. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, SBRA closed at $19.62 and its calculated equity value was about $4.95 billion. Revenue has recovered to $788 million in FY2025, net income has turned positive, and the company is shifting its portfolio toward senior housing operating properties to capture demographic tailwinds. The stock trades at roughly 12.6x estimated forward FFO and offers a 6.12% dividend yield. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$19.62
Market cap
$4.95 billion calculated from 252.19 million shares
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Improving healthcare REIT, rate-sensitive and operator-dependent
Trend status
Recovering from 2021-2023 trough, still below prior highs
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. Sabra has public filings and analyst coverage from 12 firms, but the healthcare REIT space has fewer data aggregators than large-cap sectors. The shift toward senior housing operating properties adds uncertainty because those assets carry more operating risk than triple-net leases.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is treating occupancy recovery and demographic tailwinds as certain while underweighting operator credit risk, reimbursement policy changes, interest-rate sensitivity, the high payout ratio, and the elevated short interest near 10.5% of float.
- ai Confidence
- Medium-high for reported financials, portfolio metrics, dividend data, and technical snapshots. Medium for forward forecasts because operator profitability, CMS reimbursement, interest rates, and capital-market access can change outcomes significantly.
- investment Certainty
- Low-medium. The demographic case for senior housing is structurally sound, but Sabra carries a high debt load, a payout ratio that exceeds GAAP earnings, elevated short interest, and operator-concentration risk that make the margin of safety uncertain.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Sabra owns healthcare real estate across skilled nursing, senior housing, and rehabilitation facilities, collecting rent from operators under lease and operating structures. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale in healthcare REIT, operator relationships, portfolio diversification across 400+ properties, and capital-market access, but switching costs and brand pricing power are limited. | Medium |
| Management | Insider ownership is low at 1.09%. CEO Michael Costa has led the portfolio repositioning toward senior housing, but the team has limited track record through a full cycle, and institutional ownership at 99.40% dominates the shareholder base. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached $788 million and net income reached $156 million, recovering from the 2021-2023 trough. Q1 2026 revenue rose 20.9% year over year. The dividend payout ratio of 190% on GAAP earnings is a concern, though cash flow coverage is better at 87%. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | SBRA trades at about 12.6x estimated forward FFO, a 6.12% dividend yield, and 1.78x book value. The valuation is below the healthcare REIT peer average, reflecting operator and rate risks. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SBRA is near the middle of its $17.17 to $21.28 52-week range with a beta of 0.63, showing less volatility than the broad market. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks include Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement policy, operator financial health, high debt-to-equity near 96%, dividend sustainability given the GAAP payout ratio, and short interest of 10.5% of float. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for descriptive data and audited calculations. Lower for precise price outcomes because healthcare REIT valuations depend on rate, policy, and operator credit changes. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. The demographic demand for senior housing is clear, but the operator-driven business model, leverage, payout ratio, and short interest create uncertainty about the risk-adjusted return. | Low-medium |
SBRA AI stock forecast
SBRA AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The SBRA AI stock forecast uses estimated forward FFO per share as the operating base rather than GAAP EPS, which understates REIT earning power due to depreciation. The audited three-year scenario model with FFO/share of $1.56 produced a bearish area near $14.0, a base area near $20.5, and a bullish area near $26.0. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
Base case
$18.5 to $22.5
More likely if FFO per share grows around 3%, the portfolio mix shift continues gradually, occupancy stays stable, the dividend is maintained, and SBRA trades near 12x forward FFO.
Bearish case
$12.0 to $16.0
More likely if interest rates stay high, operator distress causes rent shortfalls, Medicare or Medicaid reimbursement is cut, the dividend is reduced, or the multiple contracts toward 9x forward FFO.
SBRA AI technical analysis
SBRA AI Technical Analysis
SBRA AI technical analysis shows a stock near the middle of its 52-week range with moderate momentum as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. The 52-week range is $17.17 to $21.28, putting the current price near the center of the range. Beta is 0.63, indicating below-market volatility. The technical setup favors range-bound monitoring rather than a directional breakout call.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $19.62 | July 10, 2026 closing price from Yahoo Finance and MarketBeat data. |
| Near support | $18.80 to $19.00 | Recent price action has found bids in this area during June-July 2026 pullbacks. |
| Strong support | $17.17 | The 52-week low reported by Yahoo Finance and Barchart. |
| Near resistance | $20.25 to $20.50 | Price has struggled to sustain moves above this zone in recent weeks. |
| Strong resistance | $21.28 | The 52-week high reported by Yahoo Finance. |
| Momentum | YTD +3.6%; 1-year +6.8% | Modest positive momentum, but the stock is well below its 5-year highs. Momentum data from MarketBeat. |
| Volume | Average volume near 2.5 million shares | Volume patterns are consistent for a mid-cap REIT. Breakouts above resistance with above-average volume would carry more weight. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.63 | Below-market beta reported by Yahoo Finance and Barchart, meaning the stock has historically moved less than the S&P 500. |
| Invalidation | Daily close below $17.17 or above $21.28 | A break below the 52-week low would suggest a renewed downtrend. A break above the 52-week high would signal a potential trend change. |
SBRA AI trading strategy
SBRA AI Trading Strategy Framework
The SBRA AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a healthcare REIT with operator and rate sensitivity. It is not personal advice. Pair any chart setup with live quotes, dividend coverage data, operator news, interest-rate data, and a predefined position size.
Trend-following setup
Watch for SBRA to clear and hold above $20.25 with volume confirmation, or to hold above $18.80 on pullbacks without breaking the 52-week low.
A close below $17.17 invalidates the constructive setup. A close below $18.80 with volume weakens short-term momentum.
Mean-reversion setup
If SBRA pulls toward the $18.80 area without operator distress, dividend cuts, or rate spikes, compare the 6.12% dividend yield with prevailing risk-free rates and check whether FFO coverage supports the payout.
Do not buy solely for the yield. Recheck operator credit, debt maturity schedules, cap rates, and FFO payout ratio before acting on a reversion.
Fundamental monitor
Track FFO per share, portfolio occupancy by property type, operator credit quality, dividend payout ratio on both GAAP and cash-flow bases, debt-to-EBITDA, short interest trends, and acquisition or disposition activity.
Reduce confidence if FFO per share stalls, operators report distress, debt covenants tighten, the payout ratio rises further, or insider selling accelerates.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Sabra owns and leases healthcare real estate, primarily skilled nursing and senior housing properties, collecting rent from third-party operators. The economic engine is stable rent collection from operators that rely on Medicare, Medicaid, and private-pay residents, plus the long-term demographic growth in senior care demand.
Moat
The moat is moderate and comes from scale in healthcare real estate (400+ properties across the US and Canada), relationships with regional and national operators, portfolio diversification, and access to capital markets. It does not have the brand pricing power of a consumer company or the network effects of a platform. Operator switching costs exist but are not prohibitive.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if CMS reimbursement cuts weaken operator profitability, interest rates stay elevated and increase Sabra borrowing costs, occupancy in skilled nursing remains below pre-COVID levels, the dividend is cut (the GAAP payout ratio is 190%), or major tenants file for bankruptcy and leave properties vacant.
Management
CEO Michael Costa has led since 2021, focusing on portfolio repositioning toward senior housing operating properties. Insider ownership at 1.09% is low, which reduces alignment with common shareholders. Institutional ownership at 99.40% is very high. The board and management team have limited experience navigating a full real estate and interest-rate cycle as an independent REIT.
Industry trend
The demographic case for senior housing is strong: the 80+ age cohort is the fastest-growing segment in the US, and demand for skilled nursing and assisted living is structurally growing. However, the industry faces near-term headwinds from labor costs, wage inflation for nurses and aides, and operator margin pressure from government reimbursement programs.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $19.62 and 12.6x estimated forward FFO with a 6.12% dividend yield, SBRA prices in significant operator and rate risk. The base scenario suggests fair value near $20.5, providing limited upside from current levels. A genuine margin of safety would appear closer to the $14-$16 range where the bear case scenario sits, unless FFO growth or multiple expansion accelerates unexpectedly.
Source-backed data
SBRA Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBRA price | $19.62 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance historical data | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.95 billion calculated as $19.62 x 252.19 million shares; 0.0% variance versus reported market cap | financial_rigor.py verification and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $788 million; cross-source variance below 1% | MarketBeat and Yahoo Finance financial statements | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and FFO | $156 million net income; estimated FFO per share near $1.56 | MarketBeat annual financials and Q1 2026 FFO data | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $221.75 million revenue (up 20.9% YoY), FFO $0.39 per share (beat by $0.02) | MarketBeat earnings data | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.20 annual per share, 6.12% yield, paid quarterly at $0.30 | Yahoo Finance and MarketBeat dividend data | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 252.19 million shares; 249.44 million float | Barchart and MarketBeat statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $5.591 billion assets, $2.803 billion liabilities, $2.665 billion total debt, $117 million cash, $2.786 billion equity as of March 31, 2026 | MarketBeat balance sheet data | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 30.66x GAAP P/E, 1.78x book value, 5.79% ROE, 6.22% FCF yield, 6.12% dividend yield; 12.6x estimated forward FFO is the more relevant REIT reference | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Short interest | 26.545 million shares short, 10.53% of float, 6.1 days to cover | Barchart and MarketBeat short interest data | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $17.17 to $21.28, beta 0.63, YTD +3.6%, average volume near 2.5 million shares | Yahoo Finance, Barchart, and MarketBeat | July 12, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Read the WELL AI stock analysisView OHI AI stock forecastExplore VTR AI technical analysisCompare ideas in AI Stock PickerBuild a rules-based trading strategyScreen stocks with Pineify
This SBRA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, technical data, and third-party sources as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new filings, earnings, rate changes, operator events, market moves, or macro conditions.
Related Tools
Trading Strategy Builder
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Try it
Stock Screener
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Try it
AI Stock Picker & Screener
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
Try it