Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. research snapshot
SBRA AI stock analysis currently reads Sabra Health Care REIT as a mid-cap healthcare REIT focused on skilled nursing and senior housing properties in the United States and Canada. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, SBRA last closed at $21.17 on July 31, 2026, and its calculated equity value was about $5.34 billion. Revenue reached $788 million in FY2025, Q1 2026 revenue rose 20.9% year over year to $211.74 million, and the company raised its full-year 2026 EPS guidance to $1.53 to $1.55 on July 21, 2026. The stock trades near 14.2x price to forward FFO and offers a 5.67% dividend yield. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 3, 2026 after market close. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$21.17
Market cap
$5.34 billion calculated from 252.19 million shares
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Improving healthcare REIT, rate-sensitive and operator-dependent
Trend status
Uptrend in 2026, near 52-week high after July guidance raise
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Sabra owns healthcare real estate across skilled nursing, senior housing, and rehabilitation facilities, collecting rent from operators under lease and operating structures. Q1 2026 revenue rose 20.9% year over year to $211.74 million. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale in healthcare REIT, operator relationships, portfolio diversification across 400+ properties, and capital-market access, but switching costs and brand pricing power are limited. | Medium |
| Management | Richard K. Matros serves as Chairman, President and CEO, with Michael Costa as CFO and Treasurer. Insider ownership is low near 1.1% to 1.7%, and institutional ownership near 99% dominates the shareholder base. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached $788 million and net income reached $156 million. Sabra raised full-year 2026 EPS guidance to $1.53 to $1.55 on July 21, 2026. The dividend payout ratio near 190% of GAAP earnings remains a concern, though cash flow coverage is better. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | SBRA trades at about 14.2x price to forward FFO, a 5.67% dividend yield, 33.6x trailing P/E, and about 1.87x book value. The forward P/E of about 14x is below the broad market average. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SBRA is near the upper end of its $17.17 to $22.77 52-week range with a beta of 0.63 to 0.65, showing less volatility than the broad market. Price sits above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $19.84 and $19.56. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks include Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement policy, operator financial health, high debt-to-equity near 0.96, dividend sustainability given the GAAP payout ratio, and short interest near 10% of float. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for descriptive data and audited calculations. Lower for precise price outcomes because healthcare REIT valuations depend on rate, policy, and operator credit changes, and Q2 2026 earnings were pending at the cutoff. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. The demographic demand for senior housing is clear, but the operator-driven business model, leverage, payout ratio, and short interest create uncertainty about the risk-adjusted return. | Low-medium |
SBRA AI stock forecast
The SBRA AI stock forecast uses forward FFO per share as the operating base rather than GAAP EPS, which understates REIT earning power due to depreciation. Using the raised FY2026 guidance near $1.53 to $1.55 per share and a three-year scenario model with price to forward FFO multiples, the model produced a bearish area near $16.8, a base area near $23.4, and a bullish area near $27.3. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
$25.5 to $29.5
More likely if FFO per share compounds near 6%, the senior housing pivot improves margins, occupancy trends strengthen, interest rates ease, operator credit stays healthy, Q2 results and beyond beat the raised guidance, and the market supports about 14x to 15x forward FFO.
$21.5 to $25.5
More likely if FFO per share grows around 3%, the portfolio mix shift continues gradually, occupancy stays stable, the dividend is maintained, and SBRA trades near 13x to 14x forward FFO.
$15.0 to $18.5
More likely if interest rates stay high, operator distress causes rent shortfalls, Medicare or Medicaid reimbursement is cut, the dividend is reduced, Q2 results disappoint the raised expectations, or the multiple contracts toward 11x forward FFO.
SBRA AI technical analysis
SBRA AI technical analysis shows a stock in an uptrend near the upper end of its 52-week range as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The 52-week range is $17.17 to $22.77. The price closed at $21.17 on July 31, 2026, above the 50-day moving average near $19.84 and the 200-day moving average near $19.56. RSI was near 55.6, and beta is 0.63, indicating below-market volatility. The setup favors holding above support rather than chasing a breakout after a roughly 10% post-guidance jump.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $21.17 | July 31, 2026 closing price from MarketBeat and StockAnalysis data. |
| Near support | $20.50 to $20.85 | The lower end of the July 31 daily range at $20.86 and nearby price action offered bids during the late-July pullback from the $22.77 high. |
| 50-day moving average | $19.84 | The 50-day moving average reported by StockAnalysis; a loss of this area would weaken the near-term uptrend. |
| Strong support | $17.17 | The 52-week low reported by Yahoo Finance, Barchart, and StockAnalysis. |
| Near resistance | $22.30 to $22.77 | The 52-week high of $22.77 set in late July 2026 after the guidance raise. |
| Momentum | YTD +11.8%; 52-week +17.87% | Modest positive momentum, with the stock up from $18.94 at the start of 2026. Momentum data from MarketBeat and StockAnalysis. |
| Volume | Average volume near 2.9 to 3.1 million shares | Volume patterns are consistent for a mid-cap REIT. Breakouts above the $22.77 high with above-average volume would carry more weight. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.63 to 0.65 | Below-market beta reported by Yahoo Finance and MarketBeat, meaning the stock has historically moved less than the S&P 500. |
| Invalidation | Daily close below $19.56 or below $17.17 | A close below the 200-day moving average near $19.56 would suggest the 2026 uptrend is losing momentum. A break below $17.17 would signal a renewed downtrend. |
SBRA AI trading strategy
The SBRA AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a healthcare REIT with operator and rate sensitivity. It is not personal advice. Pair any chart setup with live quotes, dividend coverage data, operator news, interest-rate data, and a predefined position size.
Watch for SBRA to clear and hold above the $22.77 52-week high with volume confirmation, or to hold above the 50-day moving average near $19.84 on pullbacks without breaking the 200-day moving average near $19.56.
A close below $19.56 invalidates the constructive setup. A close below $17.17 signals a renewed downtrend.
If SBRA pulls toward the $20.50 to $20.85 area without operator distress, dividend cuts, or rate spikes, compare the 5.67% dividend yield with prevailing risk-free rates and check whether FFO coverage supports the payout.
Do not buy solely for the yield. Recheck operator credit, debt maturity schedules, cap rates, and FFO payout ratio before acting on a reversion.
Track FFO per share against the raised $1.53 to $1.55 FY2026 guidance, portfolio occupancy by property type, operator credit quality, dividend payout ratio on both GAAP and cash-flow bases, debt-to-EBITDA, short interest trends, and acquisition or disposition activity.
Reduce confidence if FFO per share stalls, operators report distress, debt covenants tighten, the payout ratio rises further, or insider selling accelerates.
Investment research summary
Sabra owns and leases healthcare real estate, primarily skilled nursing and senior housing properties, collecting rent from third-party operators. The economic engine is stable rent collection from operators that rely on Medicare, Medicaid, and private-pay residents, plus the long-term demographic growth in senior care demand.
The moat is moderate and comes from scale in healthcare real estate (400+ properties across the US and Canada), relationships with regional and national operators, portfolio diversification, and access to capital markets. It does not have the brand pricing power of a consumer company or the network effects of a platform. Operator switching costs exist but are not prohibitive.
The thesis fails if CMS reimbursement cuts weaken operator profitability, interest rates stay elevated and increase Sabra borrowing costs, occupancy in skilled nursing remains below pre-COVID levels, the dividend is cut (the GAAP payout ratio is near 190%), or major tenants file for bankruptcy and leave properties vacant. The July 2026 guidance raise reduces but does not remove this risk.
Richard K. Matros has served as Chairman, President and CEO, leading the portfolio repositioning toward senior housing, with Michael Costa as EVP and CFO. Insider ownership near 1.1% to 1.7% is low, and institutional ownership near 99% is very high. The company raised full-year 2026 EPS guidance to $1.53 to $1.55 on July 21, 2026.
The demographic case for senior housing is strong: the 80+ age cohort is the fastest-growing segment in the US, and demand for skilled nursing and assisted living is structurally growing. The industry faces near-term headwinds from labor costs, wage inflation for nurses and aides, and operator margin pressure from government reimbursement programs.
At $21.17 and about 14.2x price to forward FFO with a 5.67% dividend yield, SBRA prices in significant operator and rate risk but also reflects the raised 2026 guidance. The base scenario suggests fair value near $23.4, providing some upside from current levels. A wider margin of safety would appear near the $15 to $18.5 range where the bear case sits, unless FFO growth or multiple expansion accelerates.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBRA price | $21.17 close on July 31, 2026 | MarketBeat and StockAnalysis quote data | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.34 billion calculated as $21.17 x 252.19 million shares; 0.02% variance versus reported market cap | financial_rigor.py verification and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $788 million per MarketBeat; $775.76 million per StockAnalysis, cross-source variance about 1.6% | MarketBeat and StockAnalysis financial statements | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and 2026 guidance | $156 million FY2025 net income; FY2026 EPS guidance raised to $1.53 to $1.55 on July 21, 2026 | MarketBeat financials and earnings pages | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $211.74 million revenue (up 20.9% YoY), EPS $0.16 in line with consensus | MarketBeat earnings data | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.20 annual per share, 5.67% yield, paid quarterly at $0.30 | Yahoo Finance and MarketBeat dividend data | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 252.19 million shares; 249.44 million float | MarketBeat and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $5.591 billion assets, $2.803 billion liabilities, about $2.67 billion total debt, $117 million cash, $2.786 billion equity as of March 31, 2026 | MarketBeat balance sheet data | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 33.6x trailing P/E, 14.02x forward P/E, 14.18x price to FFO, 1.87x book value, 5.67% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Moderate Buy (MarketBeat) with $22.25 average target; Buy (StockAnalysis) with $22.71 average target across 14 to 16 analysts | MarketBeat forecast and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 24.99 million shares short, about 10% of float, days to cover 7.2 to 9.5, down 5.28% month over month | StockAnalysis and MarketBeat short interest data | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $17.17 to $22.77, beta 0.63, RSI 55.56, 50-day MA near $19.84, 200-day MA near $19.56, average volume near 3.0 million shares | StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance, and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
This SBRA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, technical data, and third-party sources as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new filings, earnings, rate changes, operator events, market moves, or macro conditions. Q2 2026 results had not been released at the data cutoff.
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