SailPoint, Inc. research snapshot
SAIL AI stock analysis currently reads SailPoint as a specialist identity security platform with durable enterprise demand and improving business momentum, but with a still incomplete GAAP profit transition. The company ended fiscal Q1 2027 with $1.163 billion of total ARR, $781 million of SaaS ARR, $280 million of revenue, and $33 million of free cash flow, then raised full-year guidance. The counterweight is a continuing GAAP loss, high stock-based compensation, an Entro Security acquisition still being integrated, and intense competition from Microsoft, Okta, and CyberArk. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $16.77 on July 31, 2026, and market capitalization was about $9.51 billion. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$16.77
Market cap
$9.51 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Improving momentum and raised guidance, but GAAP losses and a premium valuation
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a July recovery
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | SailPoint sells identity governance and security software that helps enterprises control access for employees, partners, applications, machines, and AI agents. Subscription revenue was 94% of FY2026 revenue. | High |
| Moat | Enterprise integrations, compliance workflows, identity data, implementation know-how, and switching costs support a moat, but Microsoft and other security platforms can bundle competing features. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder and CEO Mark McClain has long identity-management experience. The management test is converting SaaS migration, AI-agent products, and the Entro acquisition into profitable growth without excessive stock-based dilution. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue grew 24.35% to $1.071 billion, Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 22% to $280 million, and Q1 free cash flow was $33 million. GAAP net loss remained $74.67 million in Q1. Full-year guidance was raised in June. | High |
| Valuation | At $16.77, SAIL traded around 8.48x trailing sales, 51.65x trailing free cash flow, and 48.61x forward earnings according to StockAnalysis. GAAP PE is not meaningful while earnings are negative. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The price was above the reported $15.35 50-day average and $16.31 200-day average after a July recovery, while RSI at 63.20 was elevated but not overbought. The chart showed improved short-term structure. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because of platform competition, cloud outages, cyber incidents, implementation complexity, acquisition integration, stock-based compensation, and the gap between adjusted and GAAP profitability. | High |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for historical filings and current market snapshots, but lower for any forecast that assumes AI-agent security becomes a material new revenue stream. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. The business is easier to understand than the stock outcome because valuation and future margin conversion remain sensitive to execution. | Medium-low |
SAIL AI stock forecast
The SAIL AI stock forecast uses conditional ranges rather than a point target. A three-year scenario calculation used the midpoint of FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance at $0.32, with growth assumptions of 30%, 20%, and 8% and target multiples of 60x, 45x, and 30x. The resulting model outputs were approximately $42.20, $24.90, and $12.10. These are planning inputs, not reliable predictions and not GAAP earnings forecasts.
$35 to $50
More likely if ARR stays above 20% growth, SaaS migrations and AI-agent products expand net retention, operating leverage appears in GAAP results, the Entro acquisition integrates well, and the market continues to value growth software at a premium.
$20 to $29
More likely if FY2027 revenue reaches the raised ~$1.27 billion guidance, ARR growth holds in the low 20s, free cash flow grows toward the ~$200 million plan, and the valuation stays near a mid-40s adjusted earnings multiple.
$10 to $14
More likely if Microsoft or broader security suites displace workloads, SaaS migration slows, adjusted margins hide persistent GAAP losses, the Entro deal under-delivers, customer spending weakens, or investors re-rate SAIL toward a lower growth-software multiple.
SAIL AI technical analysis
SAIL AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close of $16.77 and the latest public technical snapshot available at the August 3 cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average of $15.35, a 200-day moving average of $16.31, RSI of 63.20, a 20-day average volume of 4.04 million shares, and a 52-week range of $10.30 to $24.00. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm levels after any earnings, acquisition, or guidance announcement.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $16.77 | Latest verified close used for this static page on July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $15.42 to $15.89 | Recent late-July pullback lows form a planning zone. A close below it weakens the short-term recovery structure. |
| Deeper support | $14.25 to $14.95 | The late-July consolidation area and the zone above the reported mid-July lows of about $13.52 to $13.72. |
| Near resistance | $16.88 to $17.69 | The July 31 high and the June 8 close area create the first resistance band. A breakout needs volume and business confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | $15.35 | Price was above this intermediate trend reference at the August 3 data cutoff. |
| 200-day moving average | $16.31 | Price traded above this long-term reference in late July and it should not be treated as a forecast. |
| Momentum | RSI 63.20 | Elevated but not overbought momentum. RSI alone does not establish a buy or sell signal. |
| Volume | 20-day average 4.04 million shares | The latest overview showed about 2.97 million shares traded on July 31. A breakout should show participation above the recent average. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $10.30 to $24.00 | The wide range is a practical volatility proxy for this static snapshot. No request-time ATR is used. |
| Invalidation | Close below $15.09, then $14.25 | A close below the recent support zone weakens the trading setup. A break below the mid-July lows requires a fresh thesis review. |
SAIL AI trading strategy
The SAIL AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines technical confirmation with ARR growth, SaaS mix, cash flow, margin quality, competitive evidence, and share-count changes.
Watch for SAIL to hold above $15.89, reclaim $16.88, and move toward the June resistance near $17.69 on above-average volume while ARR and the raised FY2027 guidance remain intact.
A failed breakout or close below $15.42 can serve as a rules-based invalidation condition. Define position size before entry.
If SAIL pulls back toward $15.42 to $15.89 without a guidance, ARR, or competitive thesis break, compare price action with free cash flow, SaaS migration, the Entro integration, and the next earnings report on September 8, 2026.
Do not average down only because the price fell. Recheck valuation and the quality of adjusted versus GAAP earnings first.
Track ARR growth, SaaS ARR, dollar-based net revenue retention, SaaS mix, gross retention, GAAP operating margin, free cash flow, stock-based compensation, Entro integration, and fully diluted shares.
Refresh the scenario after earnings, guidance changes, material acquisitions, cloud outages, security incidents, and new evidence that Microsoft or other platforms are replacing SailPoint workloads.
Investment research summary
SailPoint helps enterprises decide who or what should access applications and data, then automate provisioning, reviews, policy enforcement, and compliance across human, machine, and AI-agent identities. Customers pay for reduced access risk and less manual governance work.
The moat is built from deep enterprise integrations, identity data, compliance workflows, implementation expertise, and the cost of changing a system embedded in access decisions. It can widen through SaaS migration and agentic identity coverage, but Microsoft and security-platform bundling can narrow it.
The thesis fails if identity governance becomes a bundled feature, customers delay large projects, SaaS migrations reduce near-term revenue, security incidents damage trust, cloud infrastructure fails, the Entro acquisition does not integrate well, or stock-based compensation prevents GAAP profitability despite strong adjusted metrics.
Founder and CEO Mark McClain has spent more than 20 years in identity management and returned to lead SailPoint after its take-private period. The management test is whether product expansion and acquisitions create per-share value rather than only higher ARR and a larger share count.
The industry sits at the intersection of cloud adoption, zero-trust security, compliance, machine identities, and AI agents. That is a durable need, but the category is also attracting Microsoft, Okta, CyberArk, Palo Alto Networks, IBM, Oracle, and specialist competitors.
The market value is about $9.51 billion against trailing revenue of about $1.12 billion and negative GAAP earnings. Analyst consensus was Buy with an average price target of $18.90. The valuation can work if ARR compounds and margins expand, but the current price does not provide a wide margin of safety against slower growth or multiple compression.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAIL price | $16.77 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.51 billion, verified as $16.77 x 567.18 million shares with 0.02% deviation | StockAnalysis statistics, SailPoint filings, and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 567.18 million shares, up 197.84% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue and mix | $1.071 billion total revenue, including $1.010 billion subscription revenue, up 24.35% year over year | SailPoint FY2026 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 operating metrics | $280 million revenue, $1.163 billion ARR, $781 million SaaS ARR, and $33 million free cash flow | SailPoint Q1 FY2027 results reported June 9, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 cash and liabilities | $391 million cash and cash equivalents, with no long-term debt reported | SailPoint Q1 FY2027 results and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| GAAP earnings and free cash flow | FY2026 net loss of $270.054 million per the 10-K, Q1 FY2027 GAAP net loss of $74.67 million, and trailing free cash flow of about $184.14 million on StockAnalysis statistics | SailPoint FY2026 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 8.48x trailing sales, 51.65x trailing free cash flow, 48.61x forward PE, and 1.39x book value on StockAnalysis; GAAP PE is not meaningful | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $15.35, 200-day average $16.31, RSI 63.20, 20-day average volume 4.04 million, 52-week range $10.30 to $24.00 | StockAnalysis statistics and historical prices | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2027 guidance | Raised in June to about $1.27 billion revenue, $1.369 billion ARR, 19% adjusted operating margin, adjusted EPS of $0.32, and roughly $200 million free cash flow | SailPoint Q1 FY2027 earnings call and press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 24 analysts with an average 12-month price target of $18.90 and a reported range of $10 to $25 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Entro Security acquisition | Completed June 29, 2026; financial terms not disclosed | SailPoint press release via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
This SAIL AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are conditional scenarios based on public data and may be wrong. Prices, technical levels, filings, guidance, competition, and company plans can change.
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